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alltrainzfan
Chief Commissioner
Joined: Sep 19, 2005
Last Visited: Dec 4, 2008
Location: At Many of Places Yet Nowhere
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Posted: Sun Aug 10, 2008 8:00 pm
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My predictions:
Eureka 38 (December 2008) - Chrissy Present 
Eureka CPH (March 2009)
Eurela 40 (June 2009)
TrainO C32 (October 2008)
TrainO 42/GM/S class (February 2009)
TrainO 48 class (April 2009)
Auscision A/B (June 2009)
Austrains DL (October 2008)
The thing is that the Caulfield Expo is fast approaching, and Austrains mention in their newsletter they will say if the DLs won't make it by Caulfield. While the first paint samples are out, I don't think they'll be out by Caulfield, but the production will make it by Hurstville. As for the Eureka 38s, they should be able to make it by Christmas.
The Trainorama 48 and GM/42/S shouldn't be too far apart in my opinion and will come both in the 1st Quarter of next year.
As an aside question, does any manufacturer make the narrow gauge NJ/1600 class?
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anzac1959
Junior Train Controller
Joined: Jan 20, 2007
Last Visited: Dec 4, 2008
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Posted: Sun Aug 10, 2008 8:27 pm
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Whats happened to the unannounced locos from
Eureka
Austrains
Powerline
plus unannounced rolling stock
i do not understand why so much credence is placed on Chinese new year as its only 2 weeks like our Christmas break
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biqua
Paper Tiger
Joined: May 10, 2005
Last Visited: Dec 4, 2008
Location: SRA Survey No. 14032
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Posted: Sun Aug 10, 2008 8:54 pm
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| anzac1959 wrote: | Whats happened to the unannounced locos from
Eureka
Austrains
Powerline
plus unannounced rolling stock
i do not understand why so much credence is placed on Chinese new year as its only 2 weeks like our Christmas break |
Eureka was the 43
Austrains was the DL, but that was flushed out accidentally by Auscision - maybe they'll call their next one unannounced instead (I would speculate an AN now that TrainO have announced the 73)
I don't recall a Powerline unannounced loco? Hard to know what's going on there without a website ...
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LaidlayM
Chief Train Controller
Joined: Mar 03, 2004
Last Visited: Dec 4, 2008
Location: Research
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Posted: Sun Aug 10, 2008 10:47 pm
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Given the saturation point we are heading for locos that have run in the last 30 years surely someone will do an HO scale LNER A3, probably numbered 4472.
Well, I wish they would, it would become my only model of a locomotive in preserved condition.
Mark
Mark Laidlay - One of those not fussed either way about 3801
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John_Bushell
Chief Commissioner
Joined: Nov 07, 2006
Last Visited: Dec 1, 2008
Location: Jakarta
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Posted: Sun Aug 10, 2008 11:39 pm
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| anzac1959 wrote: | | i do not understand why so much credence is placed on Chinese new year as its only 2 weeks like our Christmas break |
Think you are right there Terry. In our business we get goods from China and New Year is about two weeks of no work.
As you say, like Christmas & New Year in Australia, like the August summer holidays in Europe and like Eid al Fitr holiday period here. Pretty well everywhere has a period of two weeks or so where SFA is done workwise.
I just put the date for 2009 on there because it has become part of the mythology surounding deliveries from the Chinese factories. Suppose that was not a good idea because it helps perpetuate the myth. Nevertheless it remains true that nix will move out of factories last week of January and first week of February 2009.
The loss of production time could be a bit over two weeks. Not due to the holiday, but there is a possibility that the factory will do maintenance once they restart. Machines need to be serviced, and things never get straight back to full chat anyway.
Regards,
John
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a6et
Chief Commissioner
Joined: Aug 13, 2006
Last Visited: Dec 4, 2008
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Posted: Mon Aug 11, 2008 9:22 am
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| John_Bushell wrote: | | anzac1959 wrote: | | i do not understand why so much credence is placed on Chinese new year as its only 2 weeks like our Christmas break |
Think you are right there Terry. In our business we get goods from China and New Year is about two weeks of no work.
As you say, like Christmas & New Year in Australia, like the August summer holidays in Europe and like Eid al Fitr holiday period here. Pretty well everywhere has a period of two weeks or so where SFA is done workwise.
I just put the date for 2009 on there because it has become part of the mythology surounding deliveries from the Chinese factories. Suppose that was not a good idea because it helps perpetuate the myth. Nevertheless it remains true that nix will move out of factories last week of January and first week of February 2009.
The loss of production time could be a bit over two weeks. Not due to the holiday, but there is a possibility that the factory will do maintenance once they restart. Machines need to be serviced, and things never get straight back to full chat anyway. |
John & all
It is easy to dismiss the Chinese new year as just 2 weeks holidays like we enjoy here in Australia, & most likely a lot of other countries around the world, however in China the 2 weeks is the official holiday period & does not take into consideration the affects of either side.
Some may recall when Broken Hill mines closed down at Christmas the affect that it had on the rest of the country & mores specifically BH as production was slowly wound down prior to the holidays & getting things going again afterwards.
The same thing happens & more so in China. It is almost impossible to obtain train tickets not just during the 2 weeks but in the 2 weeks prior to & after, especially in the immediate week before & after. Staff who live further away are allowed to leave early as orders are filled, & few factories will take on any order that means they cannot be filled & shipped prior to the break, & even up to the week before.
So unless the Facory producing the models can see that they can ship them out before the close down there is an affect. Not least by the fact that they can lose provincial staff as they do not return, thus they have to find & train new ones.
Whilst it would be good if it was that simple, the problem is that it simply is not.
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John_Bushell
Chief Commissioner
Joined: Nov 07, 2006
Last Visited: Dec 1, 2008
Location: Jakarta
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Posted: Mon Aug 11, 2008 1:29 pm
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a6et,
I understand that was explained to you as you put it to us. We buy goods from China so we know how it works too. The goods we buy are from heavy industrial factories - hydraulic cylinders and other hydraulic components. They certainly have a close down period, but it is not as drastic as you explain.
The factories where our trains are made are not cottage industries. They are producing for a world market, and accordingly need to play by the rules of global industry.
I am not saying that what you wrote there is untrue, just that it applies to the lesser developed sector and China has to get over that way of not doing business as it cements its place as the world's foremost industrial powerhouse. The modern sector (that we deal with in our business) does not suffer too badly from New Year syndrome, and I feel that the industries that are producing models for the world market are most likely positioning in that sector.
We have a similar situation at Eid al Fitr every year here in Indonesia. Everyone wants to get home, and personally I think they are crazy. Many killed on the roads every year in that season of madness. They try to extend the holiday period by leaving early and coming back late, but industry and the Government are clamping down on errant employees. Same thing will have to happen in China.
Regards,
John
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a6et
Chief Commissioner
Joined: Aug 13, 2006
Last Visited: Dec 4, 2008
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Posted: Mon Aug 11, 2008 3:07 pm
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| John_Bushell wrote: | a6et,
I understand that was explained to you as you put it to us. We buy goods from China so we know how it works too. The goods we buy are from heavy industrial factories - hydraulic cylinders and other hydraulic components. They certainly have a close down period, but it is not as drastic as you explain.
The factories where our trains are made are not cottage industries. They are producing for a world market, and accordingly need to play by the rules of global industry.
I am not saying that what you wrote there is untrue, just that it applies to the lesser developed sector and China has to get over that way of not doing business as it cements its place as the world's foremost industrial powerhouse. The modern sector (that we deal with in our business) does not suffer too badly from New Year syndrome, and I feel that the industries that are producing models for the world market are most likely positioning in that sector.
We have a similar situation at Eid al Fitr every year here in Indonesia. Everyone wants to get home, and personally I think they are crazy. Many killed on the roads every year in that season of madness. They try to extend the holiday period by leaving early and coming back late, but industry and the Government are clamping down on errant employees. Same thing will have to happen in China. |
John
I suspect that there will be changes in China regarding the holiday period & the aspect of China being more involved in the global community. It happened here not just at Broken Hill but, with many other areas, such as coal mines, the Elura mine at Cobar as examples. Now, whilst the change happened here, over a relative short period of time, I doubt if the same will happen in China.
Large companies, will change first as they also have to do so in the global village/economy. It will be easier in doing that in the large cities that have the majority of their workers from the same city/area that do not have to travel a long distance. When they use locals there is no, or very little impact on family life.
The big issue in China is that most big cities still rely on the peasant or migrant workers who are from a long distance away. Many of whom only have this 2 week window to see their families. A TV show in the last week here showed the impact of a father who had his 2 week holiday, after a year of not seeing his daughter who was over 12months old & the daughter pulled away as she did not know him.
What happens is that after trying to re-establish that relationship in 2 weeks he then goes back to the city 5000kms away for another 12 months. The situation is played out all over China, & many of the factories promise bonuses if, the workers return which in many cases they don't.
Many of the companies are now setting up factories in the more provincial locations that allow for locals, the working week in China is still 6 days, & mostly around 10-12 hours a day.
With the government still promoting & saying how important the holiday is, it will be hard to change. There is little doubt it will, but the question is how long?
Now the answer. Where is that piece of string.
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John_Bushell
Chief Commissioner
Joined: Nov 07, 2006
Last Visited: Dec 1, 2008
Location: Jakarta
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Posted: Mon Aug 11, 2008 3:39 pm
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Think you are pretty right there a6et. Will take a while.
Regards,
John
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flathog
Chief Commissioner
Joined: Oct 08, 2004
Last Visited: Dec 5, 2008
Location: Orange, Central West, NSW
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Posted: Mon Aug 11, 2008 4:39 pm
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Lets also not forget the delays being caused by the Olympics 
Tom
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anzac1959
Junior Train Controller
Joined: Jan 20, 2007
Last Visited: Dec 4, 2008
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Posted: Mon Aug 11, 2008 9:38 pm
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| flathog wrote: | Lets also not forget the delays being caused by the Olympics
Tom |
That is one excuse/reason the manufactures will not be able to use anymore.Directly the manufacturers wernt affected by the olympics but its the supply chains that will now be looking for other work to take up the slack.If the 4 suppliers wanted to quicken things along there could be an avalanche of models in the next year or so as mostly its they who basically say when.Look how quickly some of these reruns come back on board.
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wolfpac
Chief Commissioner
Joined: Apr 19, 2004
Last Visited: Dec 5, 2008
Location: "Melton"-SSS Line...
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Posted: Mon Aug 11, 2008 9:58 pm
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Don't forget, however, it's far easier to do a rerun, as the gear is ready to go, it's just a case of booking a spot in the factory...
No artwork to prepare, no measurements, CAD drawings etc etc to do.
Wolfpac
Secretary of the Melton Model Railway Club! -> http://www.meltonmrc.org.au
25-11-08, V/Locity set 1130 / 1106 @ Melton Hwy, Sydenham
24-11-08, Tottenham Gunzelling
21-11-08, Tottenham Gunzelling + Comengs Xing Anderson Rd, Sunshine + V/Locity @ Sydenham - Melton Hwy
14-11-08, A70, PH452, FSH24 cross VL20/VL30 @ Melton Station
For Photos: http://wolfpac.fotopic.net/ AND http://youtube.com/wolfpacw for VIDEOS |
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DQ2004
Assistant Commissioner
Joined: Oct 11, 2005
Last Visited: Nov 30, 2008
Location: Hobart -where the rain has lumps in it
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Posted: Mon Aug 11, 2008 10:05 pm
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Hi all,
In response to some of the above comments, the RACE officials believe there’s still a slightly unhealthy air of optimism hovering around some people’s expectations of upcoming arrivals.
As the RACE grinds through the long, cold and frosty winter months of 2008, some of us are foreseeing a gloomy future, while others look forward to the summer months and lines of new models arriving.
However, despite the realities of the hardships endured by producers to bring us multitudes of varied and colourful locomotives, their dedication in the face of adversity brings us hope.
…or at least, a lighter wallet.
Certainly the banks will be happy. Collectively we will all no doubt be increasing our credit limits as the RACE goes on.
And unbelievably, there are winners.
One of the BIG winners are Victorian modellers. Some RACE officials happened to visit the Victorian Hobby Centre recently, and couldn’t help but notice that EVERY type of brass diesel-electric model on their shelves at the time is due to be repeated in all it’s plastic injection molded glory with wire handrails and brass grills within the next two years (or so)!
If it has not already been done recently, that is.
Unbelievable, yet true.
Not only that, the brass Y class looked just a bit wrong when compared to the Austrains ones. I imagine they will stay on those shelves for some time…
But enough about Mexicans.
Many others are not yet winners, but are still whingers.
Everyone is waiting for their favourite model to come out, and curses when another leapfrogs it to become next in line. It can be rather irritating when producers add something extra to their schedule that in fact ends up delaying the entire schedule completely!
The RACE recommends patience, and if you can’t get it, then you will probably become a patient. In a psych ward. With one of those, you know, jackets.
Well, before the RACE gets entirely crazy, here we are…
2008
Arrivals this year:
Austrains Victorian Y class
TrainOrama NSWGR 49 class
TrainOrama NSW 44 class (re-run, new colour schemes)
Auscision EL class
Lima NSWGR C38 (re-run)
Lima NSWGR 422 (re-run)
Lima CR GM (re-run)
Arriving now:
Austrains NSWGR NN/C35 class
August:
There is a drought on you know
September:
And they don’t just last one month
October:
Austrains DL class
November:
TrainOrama NSW C32 class MAYBE
Minimodels (Bergs) Tulloch Sydney Suburban Electrics
December:
Eureka NSW CPH/CTH railmotors
Santa all booked up by Hornby, Atlas and Kato. Only so many trains can fit on one sleigh…
Will he have room for us?? A desperate group of NSWGR modellers will be praying hard in late November
2009
1st Quarter:
Eureka NSWGR class C38
Powerline VR T class (re-run)
Powerline VR H class
Powerline AN CK class
2nd Quarter:
Eureka NSWGR class AD60 (re-run)
TrainOrama CR GM class
TrainOrama VR S classes
TrainOrama NSWGR 42 class
3rd Quarter:
Auscision Vic B class
Auscision Vic A class
TrainOrama NSWGR 48 class
TrainOrama SAR 830 class
4th Quarter:
Eureka NSW 40 class
Auscision V/Line N class
2010
Austrains NR class (upgraded re-release)
Austrains 442 class (upgraded re-release)
Eureka Vic R class
Powerline NSW 48 class
Austrains NSW 81 class
Austrains Vic G class
Austrains BL class
Auscision NSWGR 422 class
Eureka NSW DEB set
TrainOrama NSW 82 class
Eureka Vic K class
Auscision NSW 46 class
TrainOrama NSW 45 class
TrainOrama SA 600 class
2011 and BEYOND
Eureka NSW D59 class
TrainOrama WA L class
Austrains Vic T class (flat-top)
Austrains Vic P class
Eureka NSW 43 class
Auscision NSW 86 class
Probably BEYOND
TrainOrama NSW 73 class
Eureka NSW D57 class
Eureka NSW D58 classAustrains NSW Z19 class
Austrains NSW Z20 class
TrainOrama NSW D50 class
TrainOrama NSW D53 class
Auscision CFCLA GL class
Eureka NSW Silver City Comet
TrainOrama NSW 90 class
_________________________________________________
Notes:
Things are getting both easier and more difficult to predict, if that makes any sense.
I’ve not included the Austrains ‘Basix’ re-releases as there’s still only a little information available about these plans.
I’ve also not bothered to speculate about any other Hornby ‘Lima’ re-releases, given how little notification there was about the recent ones.
The producers seem to be getting a bit better about their expectations of a project’s arrival, and their predictions are currently improving noticeably, however I’m still inclined to include a cautionary extra quarter in these, thanks to past experience.
The capacity of the individual producers also needs to be taken into account here.
At the bottom end of the scale looks to be Eureka, which is pretty clearly a one-man band and a fan club. This alone ensures (unfortunately) that things will take time.
Powerline seem to be struggling possibly due to being distracted by running other businesses, so I’d put them next.
Then Austrains who are also a one-man band, has a larger fan club but significantly has appeared at some pretty large and successful gigs.
Auscision are still learning but seem to be very organised, and are continuing to accelerate.
And finally TrainOrama seem to be the biggest group around and have a good handle on almost everything (except possibly the web).
The big difficulty is the planned projects that simply won’t fit into the years the producers claim they are planning to put them into.
Austrains have done very well this year. At the moment next year is looking like zero will appear, with the possible exceptions of re-releases and wagons.
TrainOrama will also struggle to get it’s planned models out along with all the re-releases. One look at 2010 and 2011 (& beyond) shows that this is NOT including the re-releases (which we can only guess at for that period) and also not including dozens of wagons & coaches that are also on the way from all sides.
At least half of the 2011 locos will certainly not turn up until 2012 and possibly all of them. Some may not even turn up til 2013, assuming something dire doesn’t happen and they get cancelled (eeek!).
So try not to get too excited.
Warm regards to all,
Toby
Last edited by DQ2004 on Tue Aug 12, 2008 12:00 am; edited 2 times in total
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a6et
Chief Commissioner
Joined: Aug 13, 2006
Last Visited: Dec 4, 2008
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Posted: Mon Aug 11, 2008 11:16 pm
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Toby & ALL.
Whilst not a contradiction. The olympics has been a big drain on the workers in China, as many from the more factory type areas have gone to BJ where there has been better money on offer. Reports in the media has shown that many workers have been sent home now that the site works are finished.
Also that the government mounted a program to ensure that there were very few homeless or vagrants around. Some other reports I have suggest that many who had work in BJ are now looking for work again in their old areas.
Coupled with some comments from a fellow modeller from the U.S that says that modelling has taken a huge hit suggest that there could well be a temporary down turn in orders from there.
Whilst this does not mean that there will be an instant improvement for us, I think that it will make things a bit better, maybe in months & certainly not years.
Remenber also that the PL & Auscision Chinese products come from a different factory to that of Austrains, Eureka & TOR, but the factory supplying the later firms, are the same one that is supplying Hornby & most of the other main European & U.S products.
New models take longe to arrange than re-runs, except where any reletively major improvements are incorporated. A straight, no mod re-run is dependant on finding a production slot. A new paint scheme & numbers may add a slight extra time frame.
I would be slightly more optimistic than Toby, but in the end there are a lot of vagaries that come into play, that could turn it either way.
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LaidlayM
Chief Train Controller
Joined: Mar 03, 2004
Last Visited: Dec 4, 2008
Location: Research
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Posted: Mon Aug 11, 2008 11:29 pm
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Toby,
So that is 4 (Y, 49, EL and 35) out of 9 (EL, Y, 49, CPH, 38, 35, 32, 48 and DL) already with the DL looking a certainty the forecast to delivered ratio is looking much better this year.
Now when did I pay in full for my R class? That’s right, over 2 years ago on 26/6/06. Back in the heady 1980s even the Dockyard got the RTR brass R out far quicker than that and I still have two more years to wait! And what's holding it up, some jolly green giant that John B and his mates want and some ring in diesel that was another Alco failure, the VR and CR knew what was best, Gemmies!
Thanks for the entertainment and ducking for cover, could be incoming from Indonesia.
Mark
Mark Laidlay - One of those not fussed either way about 3801
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