Coal downturn in NSW ?

 
  BDA Chief Commissioner

Location: Sydney
I have been hearing that coal from the West and parts of the Hunter isn't doing so well and not as much is being moved ATM .
Is this a world wide trend ATM ?

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  bingley hall Minister for Railways

Location: Last train to Skaville
I have been hearing that coal from the West and parts of the Hunter isn't doing so well and not as much is being moved ATM .
Is this a world wide trend ATM ?
BDA

Throughput n the Hunter for the first 5 months of 2013 was 10-12% up on the same period for 2012.

Bit hard to get the exact figure as I've seen two different figures quoted.

The Hunter Valley Coal Chain Coordinator stats are here https://www.hvccc.com.au/DailyPlanning/Pages/ThroughputReports.aspx bit I struggle a bit putting them into perspective.

Just found another stat - Newcastle shipped in 100.9mt in the first 10 months of the 2011/12 financial year and 118.4mt in the 2012/2013 year.

The June figures will be interesting to see if the upward trend is continuing or not.

Volatile mix at the moment of low commodity prices/ (still relatively high $A/ and high production costs  

Things may not be as rosy in Queensland.
  Raichase Captain Rant!

Location: Sydney, NSW
I have been hearing that coal from the West and parts of the Hunter isn't doing so well and not as much is being moved ATM .
Is this a world wide trend ATM ?
BDA
My understanding is that cheaper coal from other (third world?) countries is being sourced, as well as a general downturn in the demand for coal. I imagine it is only a short term thing, but as the dollar slides, it might pick up again. Certainly western coal has seen a massive downturn in the last six months, barely see any PN coal trains, and ditto for SSR.
  bingley hall Minister for Railways

Location: Last train to Skaville
Perhaps we should determine what is a downturn?

Figures provided above show in fact that at least until the end of May things were definitely on the up.

Unfortunately we don't have the figures for Port Kembla - which as indicated above could well be in the negative.
  a6et Minister for Railways

600pm News tonight had a bit on problems in Singleton due to state government issues that that is having affects on the town, with quite a few empty shops & other businesses downsizing owing to government costs having affects on the mining industry.  Also last week Xstrata announced 45 jobs were going from one of the mines in the area.
  RTT_Rules Oliver Bullied, CME

Location: Dubai UAE
Hi,
There is a lot of hype in the press. If I recall despite all the doom and gloom in GFC, the first 6mths of 2009 was the end highest year for coal exports until that time.

The spot price high cost operators will wind down with softening prices, these operations are normally mostly contractor based little longterm contracts or agreements. Longterm lower cost operators will survive.

Australia has become very high cost in recent years encouraging development in recent years, however Australia is a reliable and quality supplier and a lower $A and some common-sense in the labour market on pay rates will see customers return. At $1.05 to the USD and recent salaries, Aussies are about 25-50% over paid by USD standards compared to even a few years back and a correction must come.

If the $A drops fast enough it should I think provide a soft landing.
  BDA Chief Commissioner

Location: Sydney
I agree the $A falling on the greenback would be a good thing in the long term . Anything we still manufacture or sell gets to look better OS .
  bingley hall Minister for Railways

Location: Last train to Skaville
600pm News tonight had a bit on problems in Singleton due to state government issues that that is having affects on the town, with quite a few empty shops & other businesses downsizing owing to government costs having affects on the mining industry.  Also last week Xstrata announced 45 jobs were going from one of the mines in the area.
a6et

So coal exports in the Hunter are up anything between 10-18%, yet shops are empty because of government costs affecting the mining industry.

Want to try running that one past us again?
  SinCity Assistant Commissioner

Location: Maitland
Try telling all this to us operators who are out of jobs. The combined taxes on the mining industry (greed) have raised operating costs, coupled with the declining coal prices and a lot of supply contracts ending, OS buyers as Raichase said, They have been sourcing from other countries (A poorer quality of coal compared to ours), The drop in the $ is going to help rejuvinate the industry but at the moment it isn't looking good, even iron ore is feeling the pinch too, I'm a valley local, I also worked FIFO in the Pilbara. It's tough times for us.
  MD Chief Commissioner

Location: Canbera
In the last 12 months over 11000 coal mining jobs have been lost.
Some at the rate of 1000 a week.
http://www.sunshinecoastdaily.com.au/news/11000-coal-mining-jobs-go-nationwide/1925302/

The Media is giving very little coverage of this .
Coal Mining is looking very grim.
  bingley hall Minister for Railways

Location: Last train to Skaville
Hunter Valley inbound coal June 2012 - 11.22mt

Hunter Valley inbound coal June 2013 - 13.25mt

+ 18%
  a6et Minister for Railways

So coal exports in the Hunter are up anything between 10-18%, yet shops are empty because of government costs affecting the mining industry.

Want to try running that one past us again?
bingley hall
Not Really, but I can only report what was on the news, & that was NBN, the Newcastle station that had it, showed the Mayor or someone taking the reporter through the shoping area with the closed shops, also one of the real estate agents had to close one of their offices in the town.
  a6et Minister for Railways

So coal exports in the Hunter are up anything between 10-18%, yet shops are empty because of government costs affecting the mining industry.

Want to try running that one past us again?
Not Really, but I can only report what was on the news, & that was NBN, the Newcastle station that had it, showed the Mayor or someone taking the reporter through the shoping area with the closed shops, also one of the real estate agents had to close one of their offices in the town.
  bingley hall Minister for Railways

Location: Last train to Skaville
Mayor's are usually the loudest rather than the smartest people.

Did the mayor mention the increase in the amount of coal actually going through Newcastle?

Did the reporter even bother to research the claims made by the mayor.

Could there by other reasons for the shops closing?

Who knows. But you won't find the answers on the TV news.
  a6et Minister for Railways

Mayor's are usually the loudest rather than the smartest people.

Did the mayor mention the increase in the amount of coal actually going through Newcastle?

Did the reporter even bother to research the claims made by the mayor.

Could there by other reasons for the shops closing?

Who knows. But you won't find the answers on the TV news.
bingley hall
&, Maybe mayors also own real estate agencies, or has other interests?  Maybe the aspect is that as a town Singleton has gotten too expensive to live in & buy a house in.  I can remember a few years back when one of the new housing estates was nicknamed heartbreak ridge, owing to the amount of homes that had been taken over by the banks due to areas of the towns downsizing.

It is not unusual to see towns like Singleton & many others that sit smack in the middle of the throughput of both road & rail traffic, along with many job prospects ending up getting caught out by shifting population trends. Over the years many rail depots have closed down for the same reason & have impacted big time on the local community as well, so its not really surprising to see this happening in Singleton, as much of the coal expansion has been through mines being opened in areas further out.
  cootanee Chief Commissioner

Location: North of the border!
Someone forgot that resource prices are cyclic - you only have booms because of busts.
  johnboy Chief Commissioner

Location: Up the road from Gulgong
Gulgong has a few coal mines around it, and they are getting bigger, but the town hardly makes a cent from it. A lot of coal workers don't 'live' here, they come in, do a number of days/nights then go home to... where ever. I know a few that fly down from Qld because their mines are going downhill.

The Mayor of Newcastle has to wake up. Coal workers make a bucket of money, they don't need or want to go into Newcastle to spend it, they will go somewhere else more accessible and pleasant.

Just because it is the busiest coal port in the world doesn't mean anyone actually needs to go into the city and spend money.
  nswtrains Chief Commissioner

My understanding is that cheaper coal from other (third world?) countries is being sourced, as well as a general downturn in the demand for coal. I imagine it is only a short term thing, but as the dollar slides, it might pick up again. Certainly western coal has seen a massive downturn in the last six months, barely see any PN coal trains, and ditto for SSR.
Raichase
Don't forget that one mine has closed down but Charbon and Clarence and one other I cannot think of the name ATM are still operating and there are reasonably frequent trains as I noted whilst on the job at Katoomba on Sunday last. I cannot work oout the pattern for the SSR trains however 2 ECP sets were running on Sunday. Any of the low numbered coal trains are SSR but now they are all hauled by the new locos. Have not seen a lower horse power lash up for a while now.

In regard to the nonesense printed in local papers, I wonder how many source their propaganda from News Limited which is absolutely biased to the conservatives who have claiming doom and gloom to frighten the great unwashed into voting for the Mad Monk and his merry band of economic wankers.
  fzr560 Chief Train Controller

Don't forget that one mine has closed down but Charbon and Clarence and one other I cannot think of the name ATM are still operating and there are reasonably frequent trains as I noted whilst on the job at Katoomba on Sunday last. I cannot work oout the pattern for the SSR trains however 2 ECP sets were running on Sunday. Any of the low numbered coal trains are SSR but now they are all hauled by the new locos. Have not seen a lower horse power lash up for a while now.

In regard to the nonesense printed in local papers, I wonder how many source their propaganda from News Limited which is absolutely biased to the conservatives who have claiming doom and gloom to frighten the great unwashed into voting for the Mad Monk and his merry band of economic wankers.
nswtrains
and you were going so good. Check the subject.
  wally-wowser1 Train Controller

Location: overlooking the Mt vic washaway on Soldiers Pinch
Baal Bone [Xstrata] has closed , on maintenance shifts only,  Clarence, Charbon [ Centennial ] &  Springvale[supplies Mt Piper & the occasional overseas contract] are all working,   Airley shut last year due to  bad coal [ what a waste of money went into developing  that place]

Xstrata is slowly moving contracts on the northern field away  from PN haulage to their own haulage preferred company & have upped the ante on trains with some now having 100 wagons  on them,  they own engines & rolling stock & use them to their fullest. Pn & QR are still using the same train lengths that have been round for ages, KCL have upgraded their position in the port  with faster turn round of trains during the tipping cycle. PWCS are still  limited to  speed of conveyor belts & surge bin capacity & trains take almost 3 times the time frame that trains at KCL do to tip. NCIS I have no idea  of what their turn round is.   Boom time in Newy for coal export  & if they could expand even more without greeny complaints it would be gang busters . I can remember back in the late 50's  when the ideas started to come out about KCL that  then  they considered  that all of the northern  channel  of the Hunter river around  KCL would be all coal stock piles & loaders for overseas trade.

Check out the Dept of Minerals  & energy [ or what ever it is called  these days ] & look at the size of the Western & Northern fields, I doubt if there will be a significant down turn for many decades  to come ,yes maybe a surge & drop back over months or even years  but coal will slowly increase over time due to world demand.

Wally.
  beyerpeacock Assistant Commissioner

Location: Gorton Foundry
NCIG are effing quick. Usually tip between 1.3-1.7km/h. You're lucky to have 2 hours in NCIG before the rake is back out on the network if you get a good run.

One of the big delays that trains arriving and departing NCIG cop is the Kooragang trains leaving and arriving. There was talk of a flyover being installed to combat this, I haven't heard any more of this lately though.
  nswtrains Chief Commissioner

NCIG are effing quick. Usually tip between 1.3-1.7km/h. You're lucky to have 2 hours in NCIG before the rake is back out on the network if you get a good run.

One of the big delays that trains arriving and departing NCIG cop is the Kooragang trains leaving and arriving. There was talk of a flyover being installed to combat this, I haven't heard any more of this lately though.
Been keeping an eye on Western coalies while working up the Mountains and there are just as many as usual although some run at night which perhaps gives the impression of less trains. On Friday one early down coal train was detected with hot bearings by the detectors at Medlow Bath and had to be stopped for inspection holding up passenger runs by 20 minutes, eventually in both directions.
  hunslet1915 Chief Train Controller

Been keeping an eye on Western coalies while working up the Mountains and there are just as many as usual although some run at night which perhaps gives the impression of less trains.
nswtrains

The cessation of coal movements out of Baal Bone and Airlie have certainly meant a noticeable reduction of coal movements through the export loader at Port Kembla Inner harbour.   Added to this is that some of the remaining western coal movements at times head north for one of the Kooragang Island export loaders.
  Raichase Captain Rant!

Location: Sydney, NSW
Been keeping an eye on Western coalies while working up the Mountains and there are just as many as usual although some run at night which perhaps gives the impression of less trains. On Friday one early down coal train was detected with hot bearings by the detectors at Medlow Bath and had to be stopped for inspection holding up passenger runs by 20 minutes, eventually in both directions.
nswtrains
True, talking to a signaller up there, he reckons Clarence are putting out two trains a day at least, and that's without Lidsdale and Charbon traffic.
  chase42211 Chief Commissioner

Location: A well paid kettle boiler.

Xstrata is slowly moving contracts on the northern field away  from PN haulage to their own haulage preferred company & have upped the ante on trains with some now having 100 wagons  on them,  they own engines & rolling stock & use them to their fullest. Pn & QR are still using the same train lengths that have been round for ages,time due to world demand.

Wally.
wally-wowser1
Both Pn and Aurizon have increased train lengths over the last couple of years. PN have matched Xstrata's 96 length trains as well as brought the North West Coal working up 82 wagon lengths. And Aurizon are up to 82 wagons from a pervious 74 wagon length train.

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