MOSCOW — A Malaysia Airlines Boeing 777 with 295 people aboard was apparently shot down by an antiaircraft missile before it crashed and burned on Thursday in an eastern Ukraine wheat field near the Russian border.

This is terrible.

Reported on the ABC this morning, a number of passengers on the aircraft were heading to Melbourne as delegates of the World Aids Conference.

Alarming is the incident. The aircraft black box has been taken to Moscow.

Who is responsible we will i am certain find out over the next few days if the American intelligence community cares to share their findings.

Compelling image captured by Dmitry Lovetsky/Associated Press

This is terrible.

Reported on the ABC this morning, a number of passengers on the aircraft were heading to Melbourne as delegates of the World Aids Conference.

Alarming is the incident. The aircraft black box has been taken to Moscow.

Who is responsible we will i am certain find out over the next few days if the American intelligence community cares to share their findings.

In this world you never know what is around the corner. Whenever you board an international flight this type of scenario always flashes across your mind for a few brief seconds. Condolences to all crew, passengers, relatives and friends. No one deserves this.

Why was a jetliner there in the first place? It's hardly a secret that it's a war zone.

Why was a jetliner there in the first place? It's hardly a secret that it's a war zone.

According to the news report it was flying outside the exclusion zone, nothing wrong there.

As an aside I have flown with Malaysia Airlines through that area twice in the past 12 months, once each way KLIA to Heathrow.

According to the news report it was flying outside the exclusion zone, nothing wrong there.

Maybe that question should still be asked. MH17 might have been outside the official exclusion zone, but surely this incident will lead to a review of such zones for the airline industry. There are reports that some airlines were already avoiding the region but others did not because it would have cost money if, for example, the diversions increased flight times. It also appears that it was known that the rebels/separatists/DPR "officials" were in possession of anti-aircraft weaponry of some sort. Whether the weapons they supposedly had were capable of hitting targets at 30,000 ft or not, it's not the sort of thing I'd be wanting my aircraft to fly over. If the skies are said to be safe above a certain altitude (e.g. 32,000 ft), what's to say planes routed over the area will never have to descend into the danger zone for whatever reason? I dunno, just sounds a little dodgy to me.


I have to say that I smell a rat with the way this event is being portrayed in the media, with the flashing of photos of Vladimir Putin all over the place without providing a scrap of evidence that Russia ordered or carried out the attack. That's not to say Russia did not in fact play any part or supply weapons (whether to the Ukraine or rebels), but the lack of substance in TV reports I have seen looks like an opportunistic Cold War II demonisation campaign or at the very least, irresponsible journalism. Knowing that it would turn the whole world against them, I don't see why Russia would have wanted the plane shot down, but if they did it, they did it, and I look forward to seeing the facts and evidence that prove what caused this tragedy without the circumstantial stuff and hate propaganda.

It also appears that it was known that the rebels/separatists/DPR "officials" were in possession of anti-aircraft weaponry of some sort. Whether the weapons they supposedly had were capable of hitting targets at 30,000 ft or not,

According to an air "expert" on the local radio, he said that they had a no fly zone of up to 10,000 ft (about 3km), but he then went on to say that the this weapon is able to reach 80,000 ft.

According to an air "expert" on the local radio, he said that they had a no fly zone of up to 10,000 ft (about 3km), but he then went on to say that the this weapon is able to reach 80,000 ft.

Yes, the Buk can reach very high altitudes, but presumably if the rebels were known to have such weapons and to be shooting at aircraft, civil airliners should not have been allowed there, or at least I hope that would have been the case. So it seems the assumption was that the rebels only had over the shoulder missiles that could not reach 33,000 ft. The risk assessments that deemed it safe for civil aircraft to be there appear to have been wrong. So, it might be possible to argue that for the sake of a bit of saved time and fuel that lives were being put at risk and in this case were ultimately lost. Another free market solution gone bad?

As the linked news report indicates, Ukrainian forces recently moved Soviet Buk SAM equipment into the east of the country. Was it captured by rebels and fired negligently at a civil aircraft? Apparently the Ukrainian authorities were denying that rebels had Buks, but that doesn't mean it didn't happen. Was it an accidental or, worse, a false flag attack carried out by the Ukrainian authorities themselves, or others? The Ukrainians have shot down a civil airliner before, as well as the Russians and Americans. The false flag scenario is sure to be widely ridiculed in the West but I don't think it can be ruled out at this stage because there is very little trustworthy information being presented.

The unverified voice recordings and transcripts said to be of "pro Russian rebels" discussing the incident were reputedly intercepted by the Ukrainian authorities, which cannot be trusted any more than the other players in the region. In other words, they could be fake, just as other evidence of atrocities has turned out to be fake in the past. Meanwhile, the Russians claim to have intercepted Ukrainian military communications discussing an aerial target at the time of the incident. For every argument and piece of evidence, there is a counter argument.

The restricted area has been said to extend to FL320, with MH017 filed and cruising at FL330, a mere 1000' separation.

I'd consider this acceptable for war games, BFM, blasting, or any number of other reasons, but not for flying over an active warzone. That being said, it was deemed safe at the time, and no doubt hindsight will result in a review of the adequacy of the restricted areas for warlike zones.

A shame it's cost nearly 300 lives for this to be considered though.

Why was a jetliner there in the first place? It's hardly a secret that it's a war zone.

That not only applies to the Ukraine. Aircraft routinely fly over Afghanistan and Iraq these days. Syria seems to be avoided, as does Iran.

The two main non-stop routes from SE Asia to Europe (and vv) after crossing Afghanistan were:

- over Turkmenistan, Caspian Sea, Azerbijan, Georgia and the southern Black Sea
- over Turkmenistan, northern Caspian Sea, then over Kiev.

The latter route was the one that MAS took (and apparently Singapore Airlines had a flight about 25km away).

Its all about fuel - they go the shortest way, and with favourable winds. The Captain can get the Airline equivalent of the old railway Bung if he uses more fuel than the bean counters dictate!!

25 years ago such routes were not possible, as nobody could fly over what was then Soviet Airspace, and in any case at least one stop was required for fuel along the way as well (Bahrain and Kuwait were the popular stops then).

Many will get nervous about flying that way to Europe now, and take the longer and more expensive route via the USA - and enjoy the hospitality of the CBP and TSA during their stopover.

Yes, the Buk can reach very high altitudes, but presumably if the rebels were known to have such weapons and to be shooting at aircraft, civil airliners should not have been allowed there, or at least I hope that would have been the case. So it seems the assumption was that the rebels only had over the shoulder missiles that could not reach 33,000 ft. The risk assessments that deemed it safe for civil aircraft to be there appear to have been wrong. So, it might be possible to argue that for the sake of a bit of saved time and fuel that lives were being put at risk and in this case were ultimately lost. Another free market solution gone bad?

As the linked news report indicates, Ukrainian forces recently moved Soviet Buk SAM equipment into the east of the country. Was it captured by rebels and fired negligently at a civil aircraft? Apparently the Ukrainian authorities denied this. Was it an accidental or, worse, a false flag attack carried out by the Ukrainian authorities themselves, or others? The Ukrainians have shot down a civil airliner before, as well as the Russians and Americans. The false flag scenario is sure to be widely ridiculed in the West but I don't think it can be ruled out at this stage because there is very little trustworthy information being presented.

The unverified voice recordings and transcripts said to be of "pro Russian rebels" discussing the incident were reputedly intercepted by the Ukrainian authorities, which cannot be trusted any more than the other players in the region. In other words, they could be fake, just as other evidence of atrocities has turned out to be fake in the past. Meanwhile, the Russians claim to have intercepted Ukrainian military communications discussing an aerial target at the time of the incident. For every argument and piece of evidence, there is a counter argument.

With 28 Australians dead I do not think it is a great idea to be promoting a pro-Russian stance at the moment. Best to keep such ideas to yourself at the moment. It will be interesting to see what Putkin does next. I could imagine that sheer panic would be the order of the day in Moscow. Gee, what do we do next?

It is good to share views.

I just wonder if Putin asked his generals to ask the separatists to hand back the rest of the SAM missiles ?

I bet he did.

Why fly to Europe via USA and have to deal with all the crap the US offers the post Sept 11 air traveller when you have plenty of options going via middle east, such as Dubai, Doha or Abu Dhabi using the big three gulf carriers and affiliates such as Qantas. Or fly via SIA, CP, MAS etc knowing they will fly around now.

Most airlines were still flying over this airspace, only a few had chosen not to. You cannot blame MAS, however there were warning signs in the last few weeks, but  MAS was not alone in the crowd of no action. As far as I understand, there is only one Surface to Air missile system available in the area to do this as the media were very quick to focus on only one model, which according to Wiki is in use by both Russian and Ukrainian forces. So one way or another you can assume the pro-Russian milita have in their possession. Why they need it is anyone's guess. The limit was 32,000ft. You can only assume those who introduced this limit applied their own safety margin and it should not be up to the airlines, just like the airlines don't apply their own buffer in aircraft separation.

For me the evidence published to date points the finger at Pro-Russian rebels. But it wasn't deliberate, they simply F#@#ed up. The Soviets and the US both have experience in doing the same. For all the modern systems on a US war ship, at the time, they didn't even have a Civilian aircraft radio and never and never have formally apologised despite paying compensation.

The normally well spoken (in English) Ukrainian PM on TV showed very clear signs of high levels frustration and anger at the situation and clearly wants help from others for the Russians to get the F$#@ out of his country. Putin had a chance to man up and be a leader in the hours after this and didn't and I strongly suspect the investigation will prove what a gutless thug he really is. However of course he will dispute the findings as pro western propaganda.

My heart goes out to the innocent victims and families in this, I just hope they never felt a thing.

regards
Shane

Alarming is the incident. The aircraft black box has been taken to Moscow.

There are no reports on CNN/BBC the FDR or the CVR have been recovered.

The worse part is the local milita have been crawling through the wreckage, possibly looking for bits of the rocket. The locals at least have been identifying and covering body (parts)

The Travel Insurance companies will all probably refuse any claims for this, and will cite "Act of War" as their excuse.

As to the black boxes, there are in fact two - one is the Flight Data Recorder (FDR) which collects lots of technical data and will probably show all normal until everything suddenly disintegrated. The other is the Cockpit Voice Recorder (CVR) which records sound from within the Cockpit and will probably be normal as well until maybe a loud noise at the end. There was no distress call, things would have happened very fast.

Finding bits of the missile would be more important, though it seems that both Russia and Ukraine both have the type in question - it more a matter of which side fired it.

The Travel Insurance companies will all probably refuse any claims for this, and will cite "Act of War" as their excuse.

As to the black boxes, there are in fact two - one is the Flight Data Recorder (FDR) which collects lots of technical data and will probably show all normal until everything suddenly disintegrated. The other is the Cockpit Voice Recorder (CVR) which records sound from within the Cockpit and will probably be normal as well until maybe a loud noise at the end. There was no distress call, things would have happened very fast.

Finding bits of the missile would be more important, though it seems that both Russia and Ukraine both have the type in question - it more a matter of which side fired it.

According to a news article, the missile is designed to explode 20m from the target to ensure it rips apart the fuselage and damages the engines. Once the first tears in the fuselage open it up, the jet stream and cabin pressure to the rest. If you read the autopsy report for the Comment DeHavilland and assume the same if not more so due to the higher altitude and speed, life would probably be measured in fractions of a second after the first rupture for most.  Hence its unlikely the CVR will indicate to much. Also CVR and FDR are in the tail of the plane and hence data transmission would probably stop within milli seconds of the first rupture.

From what is being said, there is little doubt as to what the type and origin of the missile was, as there is only one type in the region, and it is the Russian BUK. The issue now becomes who fired it. The US has pin-pointed the firing to an area in rebel held territory, so the next question is: was it a missile system supplied to the rebels by the Russians, or was it a Ukrainian system seized from the Ukrainians by the rebels. There are reports and some video of a similar missile system being moved very quickly out of the area back into Russian territory, this may be the smoking gun.

It take little training to know how to target and fire such a missile, but plenty to know whether the target is military or civilian, and it would be interesting to know if the missile launcher's radar system has the capability to identify targets in any way, such as radar transponders. That capability seems, on evidence, to be in short supply, while redneck mentality seems amply supplied.

With 28 Australians dead I do not think it is a great idea to be promoting a pro-Russian stance at the moment. Best to keep such ideas to yourself at the moment. It will be interesting to see what Putkin does next. I could imagine that sheer panic would be the order of the day in Moscow. Gee, what do we do next?

Pro-Russian? How about pro fact?

And if I continue on this path of looking beyond the official narrative, daring to question what our great leader Abbott and his boss Obama are feeding us, what are you going to do about it - give me some evidence that proves Russia did more than manufacture the weapons used? You haven't yet. Nor has Abbott, Obama and so on. But if it's there, I want to see it and welcome its publication.

Forgive me for not trusting the story of the intercepted recordings provided by the Ukrainian government, which were broadcast worldwide almost immediately after the incident. If you don't know much about that government, its legitmacy, political "donors", ideology and nasty habits, do a bit of research and you might see why I don't consider them fit to write my version of history.

I don't mean to sound like a "pro-Russian rebel", but if you really think "sheer panic is the order of the day in Moscow", you're off with the fairies. This is a cold war between competing global powers and will remain so - and what happens in cold wars? Lots of innocent people get killed, proxy wars, countries are carved up and puppet governments/client states installed etc.

This tragedy has almost certainly made things more difficult for Russia on the global political front, which is why they have every reason not to have been involved. It's also why suggestions have been made that the Ukrainians did it themselves to create their own Lusitania moment, using Russian made equipment which, as a former Soviet state, they already had (the "using weapons supplied by Russia" line glosses over the fact that in the Ukraine, most military hardware is of Russian/Soviet heritage, so the chances of Russian weapons being used is pretty good, no matter who did it). The fledgling, incompetent and corrupt US puppet government in Kiev stands to gain the most from Russia copping the blame. Is that what happened? I don't know, but for me it's more plausible than suggestions that Russia did it or ordered the rebels to do it.

"With 28 Australians dead", as you put it (and the other 270 human lives of equal value also lost), it's a great tragedy. Blame and bash the hell out of the Russians for causing it if you like, and I'll maintain what I consider a healthy degree of suspicion about not only this event but what has transpired in the Ukraine over the last year, because as far as I can tell the US is deeply involved in what has been going on. They overthrew a pro Moscow government in a country that has been under the Russian sphere of influence for a long time, and they want access to the Ukraine's delectable energy reserves. Oh, and surprise, surprise, many Ukrainians are not happy with their new puppet rulers, their neo-nazi allegiances and ethnic cleansing agenda, or the idea of being forced to join the EU. Imagine how the US would react if Russia overthrew the Mexican government. We've already had the Cuban crisis as an example of the hysterics we could expect, as well as propaganda from previous US incursions into former Soviet territory; then there's the American attitude towards various South American nations where they overthrew numerous governments and invaded, interference in Iran, Libya, Syria and any other place of strategic importance to the US that is not under US control... They just don't have any credibility when it comes to these matters, so if you believe everything they say, you've likely been misled. There's nothing new going on here, it's just terrible that 298 innocent people have been caught up in it, along with the many Ukrainians of all ethnicities who are still being killed by shelling and rocket attacks ordered by Kiev.

This tragedy has almost certainly made things more difficult for Russia on the global political front, which is why they have every reason not to have been involved. It's also why suggestions have been made that the Ukrainians did it themselves to create their own Lusitania moment, using Russian made equipment which, as a former Soviet state, they already had (the "using weapons supplied by Russia" line glosses over the fact that in the Ukraine, most military hardware is of Russian/Soviet heritage, so the chances of Russian weapons being used is pretty good, no matter who did it). The fledgling, incompetent and corrupt US puppet government in Kiev stands to gain the most from Russia copping the blame. Is that what happened? I don't know, but for me it's more plausible than suggestions that Russia did it or ordered the rebels to do it.

Put simply, crap.

Put simply, crap.

lol... please accept my sincere apology for subjecting you to that crap. You'd better get back to listening to Barack, the neo-Nazis in Kiev and Mr Abbott, if you can bear to listen to him.

Yeah, I will do that, however your apology sounds very hollow. Personally, I am offended by your use of this tragedy for your own personal FITH political rant.

Especially when a quarter of the fatalities were innocent children. Shame on you.

Yeah, I will do that, however your apology sounds very hollow. Personally, I am offended by your use of this tragedy for your own personal FITH political rant.

Especially when a quarter of the fatalities were innocent children. Shame on you.

Pulling the "I'm offended" card now, are we?

I wasn't offended when you called my post "crap" rather than attempting to respond with substance or just ignoring it if you didn't like it - instead, I just laughed... but hurl abuse at me if that's your natural response.... call me "FITH", attempt to discredit me by insinuating I somehow don't have any respect for the dead, including 80 children - that's really nice of you ... show me your true colours... but if you really are offended by me, I am truly even more sorry. Again, I respect your right to express opposing views and to say things that might insult, offend or humiliate me.

This is understandably an emotionally charged issue and not only because of the tragic loss of life, but also because of the tense political situation in the land where the flight was shot down, home to a nasty fight in which there are lots of innocent civilians but probably no good guys among the combatants. Back in Australia, I think Abbott may have jumped the gun in his attack on Russia at this early stage and trashed the relationship with Russia unnecessarily. It will probably score him a few points with voters at this emotional time, but could turn out to be embarrassing like the Saddam WMD myth and other factoids, if not everything he is saying is supported by the "facts".

For the record, I don't totally dismiss the version of events that holds that the anti-government rebels, perhaps in a fit of vodka-fuelled negligence, fired a stolen or otherwise acquired Buk SAM at MH17. It's just that it's not the only possibility and the Ukrainian authorities supplying the evidence to support that story are a bunch of crooks themselves, who stand to gain from it becoming the only accepted set of "facts", along with their masters, the United States. A little caution in accepting such "facts" and an objective process of eliminating other possibilities doesn't go astray, but as usual, the mainstream discussion was very narrow before the "independent, international" investigation even started. If it was Russia, at least the truth would be relatively simple (despite the difficulty I have in understanding why they would want to commit such an atrocity knowing full well the trouble it would bring them), because while the alternative is not overly complicated, it is highly inconvenient, if not unthinkable for many people.

“Cui Bono?”

For every argument and piece of evidence, there is a counter argument.

One thing is for sure, nobody will be punished for this.  Putin will blame Ukraine and vice versa - Europe is too frightened of Putin's economic and military power and the United States is too isolated from this incident to really get angry about it.  Putin is a multi-billionaire and a kleptocrat who doesn't give a sh*t about anything other than money and power, a little problem like MH17 won't get in the way of his imperialist expansion plans for long.

It wasn't really an easily, obviously-identifiable enemy like Al Queda, ISIS or Hamas and even though Putin is ostensibly supporting the 'rebels' in Ukraine there's enough plausible deniability so that he'll never be held directly accountable.

Very sad situation and its compounded by all these terrible political issues meaning that the perpetrators and backers will probably never be bought to justice.  Look at how chaotic the crash site is (still) after 48 hours - they won't even allow Western investigators in for a proper look at the site which has apparently been looted repeatedly since the crash.  I really doubt they'll ever get to the bottom of this.

MILW has the right idea - the reaction of some is a little too two minute hate for my liking.

That and simply taking any opinions or messages from the media or those with vested interests as fact, without critical analysis.

One paper was blaming Putin just because the missiles were Russian made, which would be like blaming Obama if a US made Iranian jet blew something up.  Others were whining about aircraft flying over Ukraine, which is a necessity for getting from northern Europe to SE Asia quickly, to save money (seeming to imply such a thing isn't completely logical) when there was no identifiable threat to civilian aircraft (no SAMs were being used).  Airlines routinely fly over hostile places in the Middle East because there is no other option, and minimal risk.  And some media sources were crying foul about local Ukrainians collecting passports for identification purposes (because we have so much wartime experience) or that wallets were apparently stripped of cash (because we have just as much experience of incredible poverty).

Just dumb.

they won't even allow Western investigators in for a proper look at the site

Couldn't be because of all those people running around with guns now could it?


Well, that and the arrogance of the western belief that they are even entitled to be there, which surely wouldn't esteem them to the rebels.

One paper was blaming Putin just because the missiles were Russian made, which would be like blaming Obama if a US made Iranian jet blew something up.

That's not the whole picture and you know it.  Anyone who has been following that situation in Ukraine would know full well that Putin has blood on his hands and is in the middle of a populist, imperialist expansion campaign.  As I said earlier though - plausible deniability - there's enough of a distance between him and the 'rebels' to avoid much of the responsibility.

And the Iranians have American-made fighter jets?  That's news to me.