Newcastle Rail Line: Announcements

 
  normw Junior Train Controller

Run that one past me again? Assuming that the land is put up for auction, the value of that land is the highest bid made. That is the value of the land and that is what it is worth to a developer. It is the same thing.

In Newcastle CBD, similar land is selling for $10 million per hectare. Why would it be worth more than that?
Northern Flyer
G/Morning. The developer pays what the land is valued at at time of sale, but what the developer (finally) gets is the value of the property _after_ development and resale. As this is a harbour-view site close to the city, one could expect the nett gain would be substantial, and hence there is a 'social' obligation to thank those who made the nett gain possible.

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  Northern Flyer Train Controller

G/Morning. The developer pays what the land is valued at at time of sale, but what the developer (finally) gets is the value of the property _after_ development and resale. As this is a harbour-view site close to the city, one could expect the nett gain would be substantial, and hence there is a 'social' obligation to thank those who made the nett gain possible.
normw
Norm, the person who pays the highest price and therefore takes the highest risk will get the land. After he borrows $10 m from the bank, he might borrow another $30 million to build it, and after 5 years he might start getting a return from sales. At the end, if he is lucky, he might walk away with 5 to 10% on his investment, say $4 million.

If there were bigger gains to be had, other developers would pay a higher price for the land in the first place. If the land wasn't available for sale, developers would look for other opportunities to get a return. They are not sitting around, doing nothing, waiting for one or two narrow blocks on contaminated railway land to come up for sale. It is crazy to think that this is all part of some huge conspiracy theory because the numbers just don't stack up.
  Northern Flyer Train Controller

The Mine Subsidence Board released a map of the area showing the strength of the ground. Newcastle station + bus layover would be a goldmine.
Speedbird1
Let's park the conspiracy theories for a moment and look at fiscal reality.

The $10 million per hectare I quote is for land from of mine issues close to water and with water views. You might by a block with mine issues for $7 million, spend $3 million on grouting and still end up with a $10 million block you can build on without restrictions.

The land will only ever be worth more money if people starting paying twice as much for units in Newcastle. If that was to happen, the government would get the windfall, they own the land! The developer that buys it will be the one that pays the most and therefore takes the biggest risk on getting a return in 5 years when the work is finished.

I repeat my original claim, the government would not spend $460 million if the only reason was to recover the income from the sale of the land. The land is only worth about $20 million (if they sold every inch of it). Even if prices doubled, it is still less than10% of the cost of the project.
  normw Junior Train Controller

Let's park the conspiracy theories for a moment and look at fiscal reality.

The $10 million per hectare I quote is for land from of mine issues close to water and with water views. You might by a block with mine issues for $7 million, spend $3 million on grouting and still end up with a $10 million block you can build on without restrictions.

The land will only ever be worth more money if people starting paying twice as much for units in Newcastle. If that was to happen, the government would get the windfall, they own the land! The developer that buys it will be the one that pays the most and therefore takes the biggest risk on getting a return in 5 years when the work is finished.

I repeat my original claim, the government would not spend $460 million if the only reason was to recover the income from the sale of the land. The land is only worth about $20 million (if they sold every inch of it). Even if prices doubled, it is still less than10% of the cost of the project.
Northern Flyer
Since a democracy is government of the people by the people FOR the people, I fail to understand the Governments 'hell-bent' determination to truncate the Newcastle line, given most reports and their own in-house committee were against it proceding, unless there is some benefit in it for the Government. My cynicism would snap if the Government just wanted nicer views of the harbour.
  Speedbird1 Locomotive Fireman

Location: Wyee
Since a democracy is government of the people by the people FOR the people, I fail to understand the Governments 'hell-bent' determination to truncate the Newcastle line, given most reports and their own in-house committee were against it proceding, unless there is some benefit in it for the Government. My cynicism would snap if the Government just wanted nicer views of the harbour.
Pru Goward said the election would be a referendum on the issue. The libs lost all but one seat in the whole region, so what does that say the people want?... That benefit for the government would most likely be the "donations" kindly given by certain individuals...
  Junction box Chief Commissioner

Location: newy
Six months and still dithering, f#ck ya buses!
  Northern Flyer Train Controller

Since a democracy is government of the people by the people FOR the people, I fail to understand the Governments 'hell-bent' determination to truncate the Newcastle line, given most reports and their own in-house committee were against it proceding, unless there is some benefit in it for the Government. My cynicism would snap if the Government just wanted nicer views of the harbour.
normw
The only two scientific surveys show 2/3rds support for truncation. The recent elections were fought on a number of issues. If the leasing of the poles and wires did not pull 5 to 10% of the vote for Labor, Newcastle could easily have been back with the liberals.

Which reports told them not to proceed?

There was no in house government committee. There was an upper house inquiry stacked with Greens and Labor who made up their minds before the inquiry started. It was a political stunt that didn't expose anything of substance.

It is nothing to do with views, rather pedestrian connectivity within the CBD. You wouldn't build an above ground railway down George Street in Sydney. Newcastle is now be corrected for past poor decisions.
  Northern Flyer Train Controller

Six months and still dithering, f#ck ya buses!
Junction box
Light rail starting this year as the government has always said.
  Northern Flyer Train Controller

Pru Goward said the election would be a referendum on the issue. The libs lost all but one seat in the whole region, so what does that say the people want?... That benefit for the government would most likely be the "donations" kindly given by certain individuals...
Speedbird1
I don't think the government would spend $460 million for a single donation of $10,000.

The election was not a single issue election. The Poles and Wires scare campaign lost the Libs 5 to 10% of the vote. If that didn't happen, Newcastle would be back with the Liberals.

There are only two scientific  surveys done on the issue and they show 2/3rds wanted the railway truncated.
  Speedbird1 Locomotive Fireman

Location: Wyee
I don't think the government would spend $460 million for a single donation of $10,000.
Northern Flyer
When that $10,000 gets them elected they will.
  Northern Flyer Train Controller

When that $10,000 gets them elected they will.
Speedbird1
So you are saying that the government did a deal with Jeff McCloy that if he gave them $10,000 for the 2011 election, they would truncate the railway (a policy of the previous government) and spend $460 million on Newcastle. What interest did Jeff McCloy have? What benefit did he get from it? People donate money to political parties every day. The only reason McCloy couldn't was he was a developer. $10,000 is a drop in the ocean compared to what others donate. Tinkler gave McKay $50,000 in 2007, Unions give the ALP millions every year.

I will try to be polite, but that is conspiracy theory gone wild.
  Speedbird1 Locomotive Fireman

Location: Wyee
There was an upper house inquiry stacked with Greens and Labor who made up their minds before the inquiry started. It was a political stunt that didn't expose anything of substance.
Northern Flyer
I wouldn't call Fred Nile Greens or Labor. The inquiry found that the truncation should not proceed because of the corruption that had been involved.
  Speedbird1 Locomotive Fireman

Location: Wyee
So you are saying that the government did a deal with Jeff McCloy that if he gave them $10,000 for the 2011 election, they would truncate the railway (a policy of the previous government) and spend $460 million on Newcastle. What interest did Jeff McCloy have? What benefit did he get from it?
Northern Flyer
No, I'm saying that after his 'gift' they felt obliged to repay the favour. i.e. a rather favourable piece of real estate in the CBD.
  Speedbird1 Locomotive Fireman

Location: Wyee
The only two scientific surveys show 2/3rds support for truncation.
Northern Flyer
Please explain how these surveys were conducted and how they are superior to the surveys that showed massive support for rail?
  Northern Flyer Train Controller

No, I'm saying that after his 'gift' they felt obliged to repay the favour. i.e. a rather favourable piece of real estate in the CBD.
Speedbird1
So you are saying that the government is spending $460 million in order to give a $10 million block of land to someone who gave them $10,000 to help a candidate in a seat that they only had a small chance of winning.

Now that is really nuts. Do you think people would notice the NSW Government giving a $10 million block of land to a developer in the middle of the city?
  Northern Flyer Train Controller

Please explain how these surveys were conducted and how they are superior to the surveys that showed massive support for rail?
Speedbird1
Both surveys were done by the Hunter Valley Research Foundation. One was conducted for the Minister for the Hunter, Jodi McKay. Both show 2/3rds support for truncation and replacement with buses. There would be an even higher support for truncation and replacement with light rail.

I have not heard of a single scientific survey done that shows support to keep rail. Opt in polls for The Herald don't count. Particularly when Save Our Rail send emails out to their members encouraging them to vote.
  Northern Flyer Train Controller

I wouldn't call Fred Nile Greens or Labor. The inquiry found that the truncation should not proceed because of the corruption that had been involved.
Speedbird1
Fred Nile did it to raise profile for the Christian Democrats leading up to the election. He toured Newcastle with Save Our Rail and declared that the railway should stay before a ball was even bowled. Not one piece of evidence of corruption was found no matter how you want to spin it.

From http://www.theherald.com.au/story/2918577/inquiry-rail-should-be-reinstated-bob-hawes-conflict-of-interest/

"But after months of hearings and deliberations, it has not found any evidence of corrupt influences on the government's major decisions in Newcastle nor improper conduct by former Liberal MPs Andrew Cornwell and Tim Owen, beyond the allegations of developer donations to their 2011 election campaigns that were aired at the Independent Commission Against Corruption last year."

Fred didn't want it because he didn't agree with it. He found no technical or other reason not to proceed. No smoking gun, he just didn't like it.
  thadocta Chief Commissioner

Location: Katoomba
Replying to a post a long way back (about why the light rail wasn't installed BEFORE the line was closed), remember that the only other (recent) conversions from heavy to light rail - St. Kilda and Port Melbourne - also meant line closures for a period, so it is not unprecedented for there to be an interim period between closing a rail line and opening the light rail.

Dave
  Newcastle Express Chief Commissioner

And Northern Flyer leaves out the fact that GPT paid for the HVRF to get the result that they wanted. Most polls support retaining the rail line.

BUT as for the Liberals loosing all but one Hunter seat and claiming it was a "referendum" on the rail line is what Pru Goward said. But the rail line was NOT the only issue at the March election.

Having said that, the leader of SOR should join this site to discuss the issue. All sides should be discussed.
  thadocta Chief Commissioner

Location: Katoomba
BUT as for the Liberals loosing
Newcastle Express
You lost me with that one, just like up above. As soon as  I see someone use 'loose" when they mean "lose" (and the derivatives of those words) I can't take them seriously.

Dave
  Newcastle Express Chief Commissioner

I'm a bit sick to be worreid (see!) about that.
And it's b well hurts!
  Northern Flyer Train Controller

And Northern Flyer leaves out the fact that GPT paid for the HVRF to get the result that they wanted. Most polls support retaining the rail line.

BUT as for the Liberals loosing all but one Hunter seat and claiming it was a "referendum" on the rail line is what Pru Goward said. But the rail line was NOT the only issue at the March election.

Having said that, the leader of SOR should join this site to discuss the issue. All sides should be discussed.
Newcastle Express
You also leave out the fact that the second survey was paid for by the Labor Government, used different words, surveyed the five Lower Hunter LGA's and still got the same result. If you think either survey had misleading questions or were flawed how about you post the details rather use glib one liners. Bang The Table, whilst less scientific also achieved the same result.

Which polls do you thing support retention? Details and links would be nice. All I have seen is opt in straw polls by the Newcastle Herald which are meaningless.
  Northern Flyer Train Controller

Replying to a post a long way back (about why the light rail wasn't installed BEFORE the line was closed), remember that the only other (recent) conversions from heavy to light rail - St. Kilda and Port Melbourne - also meant line closures for a period, so it is not unprecedented for there to be an interim period between closing a rail line and opening the light rail.

Dave
thadocta
Dave, the other level of complexity in Newcastle is that they also have to build stabling for heavy rail, stabling for light rail and a new interchange in a constrained site. By comparison, the Melbourne conversions were a walk in the park. We have senior members of Save Our Rail and other assorted rat bags claiming that you could do the conversion in a 2 week shut down.
  Showtime Chief Train Controller

A lot of you still seem to be of the opinion that the Light Rail will go ahead.
Can you not see what Baird and Gladys have been doing (actually not doing).
The only real commitment to the project has been the interchange, and guess what, the interchange is needed to get rail passengers off the trains and on to buses, and vice versa. This is all they will ever build.
Gladys has already admitted that the $400M "allocated" for Newcastle's Light rail has been been spent on Sydney trains.
That dough is never coming back. Gladys and the new "Secretary for Newcastle" have also admitted no money has been allocated for the Glendale interchange or the Adamstown crossing.
The government just doesn't give a damn about this region
  tezza Chief Commissioner

Nice cherrypicking with regards to the budget Showtime but you have conveniently forgotten the budget allocation of 100 million for the light railway during 2015-2016.

http://www.theherald.com.au/story/3163740/100-million-bound-for-newcastle-light-rail/

Newcastle is quite happy to pay the $400 million deposit on a fleet of new interubans which will make for far more comfortable travel between Sydney Terminal and Wickham Interchange..

The survey teams out in force last month along the railway corridor, Hunter, Scott and Telford Streets are also a good indication of light railway on the way, particularly when it is confirmed by the work crews on the job when asked what they are doing.

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