Search for MH370 suspended following completion of this task in the current area

 
  woodford Chief Commissioner

Australia, China and Malaysia, have announced that the search for MH370 has now been suspended seeing they have no completed searching the current area. Although some think it will be worth searching north of the current area, it has been stated the data supplied is not precise enough to warrent extending the search.

http://www.abc.net.au/news/2017-01-18/families-condemn-irresponsible-suspension-of-mh370-search/8189644

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  bevans Site Admin

Location: Melbourne, Australia
The teams have done a Stirling job covering around 122,000 square kilometres.  That is a lot of ocean.
  Trainplanner Chief Commissioner

Location: Along the Line
Yes, in following this as I have some interest in aviation, its been quite an amazing exercise technically and physically in undertaking all the modeling scenarios to define the search area and then the enormous technical and logistical issues in carrying out the search.

Even with all the advances in technology, the reality is this was really like looking for a needle in an enormous haystack.   I've in very recent years crossed the Indian Ocean very frequently and its when you're actually in the air that it brings home to you both the vastness of the ocean and just how remote the area is to mount the exercise that was undertaken both in the early days as an aerial search and then later as a comprehensive deep ocean search.

The reality is as much as you can appreciate that families and loved ones want to know more and at least know where the plane actually is, a search of this enormity and complexity would not have even been completed just a few years ago.

As for the aviation industry itself, there have as of December 2016 been 1,460 Boeing 777's built with hundreds more still on order.   It would be highly unlikely with the number of B777 aircraft flying and the data that has been amassed and the experienced gained that there was something technical about the plane that hasn't been encountered on other B777's.    Of the 1,460 in service there have only been 6 total hull losses of B777's.  They first entered service in 1995 which means there must be many 20 plus year old B777's flying, so its hard to imagine that IF the accident was technical that there is something about the B777 that is yet to be discovered.   Many airlines including the likes of Singapore Airlines, Emirates, Qatar etc operate B777's on incredibly long flights with amazing reliability.   Many undertake 13 plus hour sectors, spend 2 or so hours on the ground and then undertake another 13 plus hour return sector.

It's because of the phenomenal level of reliability and availability of the aircraft that you tend to think this tragedy was caused by other factors and in some ways that's probably the hardest thing for people to get their head around.  One positive thing that has come about quite quickly is better and almost constant tracking of aircraft.   Not all airlines have this facility but many now have.
  freightgate Minister for Railways

Location: Albury, New South Wales
We might never know the the story as I can't imagine the FBI have any plans soon to release the documents of the investigation.

Was this disaster man made?

NORAD or whatever it is now can track objects in the sky so why not tell us about mh370 ?
  Clyde Goodwin Junior Train Controller

We might never know the the story as I can't imagine the FBI have any plans soon to release the documents of the investigation.

Was this disaster man made?

NORAD or whatever it is now can track objects in the sky so why not tell us about mh370 ?

freightgate
Are you serious
What does the FBI have to do with it at all try NTSB the air crash investigation experts

NORAD They do early warning of nuclear missiles and space objects tracking NOT ircraft
  freightgate Minister for Railways

Location: Albury, New South Wales
I beg to differ Malaysia sought the help of the FBI.
  x31 Chief Commissioner

Location: gallifrey
The FBI were engaged by the Malaysian Government see http://thenewdaily.com.au/news/world/2016/07/27/mh370-pilot-fbi/
  woodford Chief Commissioner

We might never know the the story as I can't imagine the FBI have any plans soon to release the documents of the investigation.

Was this disaster man made?

NORAD or whatever it is now can track objects in the sky so why not tell us about mh370 ?
"freightgate"



The problem with MH370 is that NO ONE knows what happened. it is possible for inter continental missles to be track as they fly out side the atmosphere and so can be directly reached by radio beams and therefor can be tracked by radar. Long distanc radar though is NOT simple in any way. it requires massive transmitting powers and then its limited by the earth curvature.

Its almost certain the problem was man made, very few aircraft accidents are true accidents, this is why its regarded as critical to find the aircraft to find out exactly what happened so it can be prevented.

Important Note: Economics of air travel DO I will say again DO play a major role here. Almost all modern commercial aircraft including MH370 have the ability to be constantly tracked. There's a umber of issues though, the crew can turn them off, there's a serious push now to have at least one system that cannot be turned off, like the aircrafts flight data recorder and cockpit voice recorder, this will of course cost money. The second point is few airlines wish to add another expense to flying, almost certainly permanent tracking of aircraft will cost someone something.

I believe though in Australian airspace now airline aircraft MUST be able to report there position at least every 10 minutes

Its almost certain though thatMH370 will be a "water shed" moment (Note 1) in aviation safety, when it finally becomes clear that something HAS to be done.

Note 1: Like the Kyeema crash, the Australian government of the day had been badly dragging its feet fro providing decent radio navigation aids, such had been installed but they would not part the money to properly test them. IT was proved very quickly a working beacon at Essendon would have prevented the crash.and the governement was forced by the public out cry to at last do something.

woodford.
  RTT_Rules The Ghost of George Stephenson

Location: Dubai UAE
Yes, in following this as I have some interest in aviation, its been quite an amazing exercise technically and physically in undertaking all the modeling scenarios to define the search area and then the enormous technical and logistical issues in carrying out the search.

Even with all the advances in technology, the reality is this was really like looking for a needle in an enormous haystack.   I've in very recent years crossed the Indian Ocean very frequently and its when you're actually in the air that it brings home to you both the vastness of the ocean and just how remote the area is to mount the exercise that was undertaken both in the early days as an aerial search and then later as a comprehensive deep ocean search.

The reality is as much as you can appreciate that families and loved ones want to know more and at least know where the plane actually is, a search of this enormity and complexity would not have even been completed just a few years ago.

As for the aviation industry itself, there have as of December 2016 been 1,460 Boeing 777's built with hundreds more still on order.   It would be highly unlikely with the number of B777 aircraft flying and the data that has been amassed and the experienced gained that there was something technical about the plane that hasn't been encountered on other B777's.    Of the 1,460 in service there have only been 6 total hull losses of B777's.  They first entered service in 1995 which means there must be many 20 plus year old B777's flying, so its hard to imagine that IF the accident was technical that there is something about the B777 that is yet to be discovered.   Many airlines including the likes of Singapore Airlines, Emirates, Qatar etc operate B777's on incredibly long flights with amazing reliability.   Many undertake 13 plus hour sectors, spend 2 or so hours on the ground and then undertake another 13 plus hour return sector.

It's because of the phenomenal level of reliability and availability of the aircraft that you tend to think this tragedy was caused by other factors and in some ways that's probably the hardest thing for people to get their head around.  One positive thing that has come about quite quickly is better and almost constant tracking of aircraft.   Not all airlines have this facility but many now have.
Trainplanner
of the 6 x 777 hull losses I think only the one in UK "landing" (BA38)on the end of the runway after the engines were starved of fuel only seconds before landing was a true technical fault.

The others, shot down (MH17) and pilot flew it short of the runway (Asian 214) are certainly not technical issues with the plane.

The remaining three are all engine fires on the ground
- BA2276 - Aborted take off on runway 2014
- Korean 2708 - Engine fire before take off 2016
- SIA 368 - Oil leak in right engine became a fire after landing 2016

Potentially MH370 could have suffered same, but none of the above prevented communications from the start so unlikely.

The sad part about the abandoning the search is that in the 21st century, its possible to loose a 400 seat modern airliner and we cannot find it. MAS is or was a 4 or 5 star airline at the time so should have had the systems in place to track.

Hopefully one day it is found and the truth can be revealed.
  Trainplanner Chief Commissioner

Location: Along the Line
Yes RTT I agree.  We all hope that it maybe found one day.
  woodford Chief Commissioner

RTT_rules said................

"The sad part about the abandoning the search is that in the 21st century, its possible to loose a 400 seat modern airliner and we cannot find it. MAS is or was a 4 or 5 star airline at the time so should have had the systems in place to track."


Modern high speed travel has given most people a false impression of the scale of the earth, this is also not helped by the much extent idea that "we will fly over the boring bits".

Quite some years ago I went on a driving holiday up through the centre of Aus to the north of Western Australia across the Northern Territory then back home. Almost everyone said "there's little to see in the centre just fly up and hire a vehicle". This NOT the way to get any kind of idea of the scale of even just Australia, and there is PLENTY to see, it was a VERY interesting trip.  

The oceans and the world are A VERY large place, most of the ocean floor not even been mapped in any kind of detail. In fact the FIRST ever detailed map of the floor of the Eastern Indian Ocean was done as a part of the search for MH370. The world is an enormouse place, and the oceans in particular have been explored little, its not surprising some of the larger of man's vehicles can be lost there.

Sadly there's probably little hope of finding MH370, its NOT like Air France flight 447, we have not real concrete evidence of where exactly MH370 it went down. Its then critical now the airline industry bites the bullet and institutes mandatory tracking of all its aircraft inspite of the cost of so doing.

woodford
  gordon_s1942 Deputy Commissioner

Location: Central Tablelands of NSW
I agree entirely with Woodford that sad though it may be, they simply have no idea where to start from and its a huge ocean out there.

One thing I find annoying is that there appears to have been some rudimentary location transmitters fitted to the aircrafts engines and even now there appears to be marked reticence in installing more accurate transmitters that could aid in locating a crashed aircraft rather than waiting until the fuel time runs out or there is a fireball on the horizon before declaring a Air Craft is down.

I know its not possible to cover every contingency but things do go wrong and then there is a mad scramble trying to work out where and what happened to the Air craft.
  Valvegear The Ghost of George Stephenson

Location: Norda Fittazroy
It took decades to find HMAS Sydney and RMS Titanic and we knew pretty well where to look for them. There is no really credible evidence to guide us to MH 370 now. As gordon_s1942 said, it's a huge ocean out there.
  woodford Chief Commissioner

I agree entirely with Woodford that sad though it may be, they simply have no idea where to start from and its a huge ocean out there.

One thing I find annoying is that there appears to have been some rudimentary location transmitters fitted to the aircrafts engines and even now there appears to be marked reticence in installing more accurate transmitters that could aid in locating a crashed aircraft rather than waiting until the fuel time runs out or there is a fireball on the horizon before declaring a Air Craft is down.

I know its not possible to cover every contingency but things do go wrong and then there is a mad scramble trying to work out where and what happened to the Air craft.
"gordon_s1942"


Nearly all modern airline aircraft have at least one kind modern tracking system installed, most, in fact it appears almost all airlines did not have them enabled due to the cost of being tracked. This is now changing entirely due to NH370.

woodford
  woodford Chief Commissioner

It took decades to find HMAS Sydney and RMS Titanic and we knew pretty well where to look for them. There is no really credible evidence to guide us to MH 370 now. As gordon_s1942 said, it's a huge ocean out there.
"Valvegear"


Its VERY difficult to find something that has sunk in deep water, it took them something like 6 weeks to find the USS Thresher when it broke up on April the 10th 1963, inspite of the fact there was a ship (submarine rescue ship USS Skylark) standing guard over it.

It was regarded at the time as a major miracle the US navy found the Scorpion within 6 months when it apparently exploded and sank in may 1968., although there now appears to be some evidence its explosion was located by the US"s Altlantic sonnar network

woodford
  gordon_s1942 Deputy Commissioner

Location: Central Tablelands of NSW
To see how an object sinks, watch that program about the Titanic and how they proved by computer modeling based on the debris field and the wreck itself how it sank.
When the USS Thresher went down in 1963, there was literally no idea of what the dynamics were of how a sinking vessel reached the Ocean floor below 500 metres.
Doctor Bob Ballad, who found the Titanic did so by going backwards and forwards over the reported position of where the Titanic was when it sank until he found the trail of debris that spewed out of the ship as it sank and used that debris like a trail of breadcrumbs to lead him the the wreck.
It was this method that enabled him to find the USS Thresher and visited the wreck of the USS Scorpion prior to searching for the Titanic.

The search for MH370 shows we still have a lot to learn about the Oceans and how to search them in this kind of situation.
  Valvegear The Ghost of George Stephenson

Location: Norda Fittazroy
The search for MH370 shows we still have a lot to learn about the Oceans and how to search them in this kind of situation.
"gordon_s1942"
Sure; but it would nice to know where to start. The general whereabouts of Thresher, Titanic and Scorpion ( and HMAS Sydney as I mentioned earlier) were known. Nobody knows where MH370 went down.
  woodford Chief Commissioner

Latest on the possible location of MH370, the CSIRO has been doing a LOT of work on this.........................

http://www.abc.net.au/news/2017-07-05/mh370-search-further-narrowed-to-fraction-of-seventh-arc/8678532

They now believe the assumption that the aircraft glided along distance is NOT correct and that it came down much further north than was assumed.

woodford
  Valvegear The Ghost of George Stephenson

Location: Norda Fittazroy
And the bottom line is that we still don't know.
Whilst the CSIRO is a highly respected body, and I like its efforts, one must tend to the view (already expressed by many), that this disappearance was man-made. The CSIRO just can't factor that into any form of research equation. To put up just one guess, the guy may have flown just out of radar range and done a series of wide circles while dumping fuel - we just don't know. Trying to second guess is so frustrating.
  gordon_s1942 Deputy Commissioner

Location: Central Tablelands of NSW
I have never been convinced they ever had any real idea of where MH370 eventually crashed, if thats what it did.
The ONLY good thing to come out of this terrible situation is that better monitoring of a Commercial Air Crafts location at all times is being introduced.

I am satisfied every thing was done that could be done, whether it was in the right area or not and those involved in the search should be applauded for their diligence and perseverance during these many months.
  woodford Chief Commissioner

And the bottom line is that we still don't know.
Whilst the CSIRO is a highly respected body, and I like its efforts, one must tend to the view (already expressed by many), that this disappearance was man-made. The CSIRO just can't factor that into any form of research equation. To put up just one guess, the guy may have flown just out of radar range and done a series of wide circles while dumping fuel - we just don't know. Trying to second guess is so frustrating.
Valvegear
The CSIRO amongst a lot of other bodies have done an really massive amount of work on the satellite pings and have found they can reliably track and aircraft to a position accuracy of around 30 Nmiles purely by timing the pings. All the reports are on the ATSB website, They are typical sceince research papers and need care full study as well as good general knowledge, but they DO have ell the information and the results of tracking tests.

What they did was follow an aircraft (on more than one occasion) from Indonesia to Europe tracking it by the pings, this was then compared to the aircrafts actual track and they found the two tracks never differed by more than 30 Nmiles. Its all fascinating reading.

While 30 Nautical miles is a long way, an area 60 NM square is only a small fraction of the area already searched.

Its been along task calibrating the pings as the time variation due to the aircrafts movement is only a VERY small percentage of the round trip time so each stage of the path has had to be carefully timed and calibrated inorder to come up with reliable timings and they have finally acheived this.

There is other evidence that confirms they above, a VERY detailed study of the currents in the indian ocean has shown theres only one place an aircraft could breakup NE of Australia and not have debris spread along the Australian coast.

woodford
  woodford Chief Commissioner

More reading on the science behind the search for MH370........

Note the references (hot links) to the CSIRO's published articles

http://particle.scitech.org.au/tech/the-plane-facts/

woodford

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