Hi guys,
Electric Vehicles, Australia is lagging in new electric vehicles sales compared to other countries with world wide sales now exceeding >2.5% of all new cars world wide and growing by 35%pa for PHEV and 50%pa for EV.

I'm curious

What would need to change for you to consider to buy one?


For us,
we looked at it because despite petrol being cheaper in Dubai (roughly 80c/L), getting petrol is a bit of a frustrating challenge unless you time it right because there are not enough petrol stations and all being govt owned there is no competition to build more rapidly to match growth. So you end up in a queue of the worst of Dubai driver's beeping and pushing to get to the front. My wife drives 240km/day, she currently has a 2014 Toyota Zelas, which has the Camry 2.5L and 6 speed box in a 2 door sports car and gets +700km off its 55L tank.

So she asked if there was a viable EV to buy around mid 2019, such as Tesla Model 3 that she could charge each night. The Model 3 would do the job distance wise and assuming our villa's power supply can handle the over night charge plus AC during summer. However when we watched the Model 3 review on Youtube by new owner in USA, its really butt ugly internally with almost every control now on a touch screen including all the usual dashboard displays. Its also still a bit pricey once you get away from the bare basic model. The Chev Bolt is an option and much more attractive, but small and still pricey for its size.

The Model S and X would be desirable, but we don't earn that sort of money and I've never met an owner (there are a few at work) who don't like them.

Shane never considered an electric car, not in the market for a new vehicle at present.
However what would change my mind, and questions that would need answering.

Queuing for fuel as you're described would be a consideration, what a PITA.
The battery in a conventional car is not covered by warranty, I don't believe. What about an electric car? Imagine those would be costly to replace. And the amount of charge/discharge cycles expected from same.
And the cost of fuel itself, about $1.25 in Sydney at present.
The Chevy volt appears to have been on the market for sometime, surely any bugs are ironed out by now.
Purchase price and resale value.
Given the circumstances you've outlined might be a viable option.

Best of luck.

Edit. And it would need to sound like my V8

i live in Northern Victoria on a property and at the moment an EV will not be viable. To do a quick run into town and back they would work but I am often travelling 180-200km one way for work then home again several days a week.  At the moment nothing has the range, and as it's always for a different client or location it's hardly worth them putting in a charging point.  Also filling up with petrol takes about 10 minutes and can be easily topped up by jerry can if required.  That can't be done with an LPG or an electric vehicle as simply.

I can see their use around town and short trips at the moment and there are charging stations every 200km up the Hume so you can drive Sydney-Melbourne and if you plan to take meal/coffee breaks at that time it will minimise the time difference between electric and conventional vehicles.  However the stops mean the trip takes longer overall even if the time spent in the vehicle is the same

Given that 80% of the population thought lives in cities EV's make a lot more sense, especially as you commute between an office and household half the time, it's like all those Coles/Woolworths trucks. Most could be easily replaced with Tesla trucks the next opportunity.

The main problem I have with the Model 3 is no speedo/ small instrument cluster in front of me.

But be far and away the largest problem with electric cars it's still in the early adopter phase of things, and it's expensive and the cost of entry is high.

Electric Cars still create pollution though via coal and gas power stations, and Power is unlikely to go fully green in the near future. most people forget that. Like What @HardWorkingMan Said for people in Cities Great, People in rural areas or places that require lots of driving, Not so good At the moment however that is likely to change.

Shane never considered an electric car, not in the market for a new vehicle at present.
However what would change my mind, and questions that would need answering.

Queuing for fuel as you're described would be a consideration, what a PITA.
The battery in a conventional car is not covered by warranty, I don't believe. What about an electric car? Imagine those would be costly to replace. And the amount of charge/discharge cycles expected from same.
And the cost of fuel itself, about $1.25 in Sydney at present.
The Chevy volt appears to have been on the market for sometime, surely any bugs are ironed out by now.
Purchase price and resale value.
Given the circumstances you've outlined might be a viable option.

Best of luck.

Edit. And it would need to sound like my V8

Hi Michael
I'd check the warranty on a conventional car. I know I guy here who had dispute with dealer over same. Dealer said warranty on battery started from the date of the compliance plate, not purchase date which was a year later.

On electric car battery warranty, b y chance I had a look yesterday and there are a few options
- Most/Tesla its 8 years and it should retain 100% of its rated value, ie they are designed higher than rated, so when new they will go further.
- Or on some models you can rent the battery, but buy the car (I need to find the website again). The new price is therefore lower and when the battery fails or degrades too much, its exchange at no extra cost.  If I recall, the price dropped from US$24k to US$19k and battery rental was something like few hundred a month. I'll see if I can find it later, it was a small car.

On the BOLT, the battery is quoted as 40% of the car cost. Model 3 uses more modern battery than Model S and X, 30% more charge density.

My best estimate is than a medium sized sedan EV uses around 30-35kW each hour in regular traffic averaging around 60km/h. So a Daily commute is say 60km round trip, 35kW to be recharged. Assume 20c/kWh off-peak charging at home from 10pm to 6am = A$7. Camry would use around 9L/100km, so 8x60/100 x $1.25 =  A$7


On the sound thing yes I agree, I want a V8 Mustang over a V6 Mustang because of the only growl. Now yesterday I watched some video's of a youtuber's  taking people for a spin in his S Model. 0-60Mph in 2.3sec with basically no sound and no gear changes, just continuous hard acceleration. OMG, you should see there faces. One woman in her husband's new car told him to stop as she was blacking out. Two kids got in the back seat on their devices, they both lost them to the back window.

Electric Cars still create pollution though via coal and gas power stations, and Power is unlikely to go fully green in the near future. most people forget that. Like What @HardWorkingMan Said for people in Cities Great, People in rural areas or places that require lots of driving, Not so good At the moment however that is likely to change.

Add in petrol production to the equation for a petrol car and watch their CO2 output go through the roof.

Electric Cars still create pollution though via coal and gas power stations, and Power is unlikely to go fully green in the near future. most people forget that. Like What @HardWorkingMan Said for people in Cities Great, People in rural areas or places that require lots of driving, Not so good At the moment however that is likely to change.

Add in petrol production to the equation for a petrol car and watch their CO2 output go through the roof.

The reality is it is a matter of cost. Electric cars are bloody expensive, in the case of most of them, they are bloody awful. Don't get me wrong, they are getting better, but as a price comparison, look at something like a Nissan Leaf and a similarly sized Japanese petrol hatch like a Corolla, Civic or Mazda 3. They are much cheaper and they are damn good cars. If I am spending over 40k on something in that class of car, I want something with either a German badge or some serious performance potential, the Leaf offers neither of those.

On the other hand, if I was in the market for a largeish prestige sedan (ie: not a Camry, Mondeo or a Mazda 6, but something with a badge) I would definitly consider a Tesla Model S, but in all likelyhood, I would probably still buy a petrol engined BMW 5 series or Mercedes Benz E class. They are from proven manufacturers with decades of experience and they are amazing cars. Unlike the "cheaper" Nissan Leaf, the Tesla at least competes on a level playing ground, but I would probably stay conservative and get the BMW or Merc.

When Electric cars can compete with the top sellers like the Corolla, Mazda 3, Hyundai i30 on price, they will probably sell up a storm.


One other thing, How good is a 15 to 20 year old Tesla going to be? I wouldn't have a problem buying a nice E39 5 series BMW from the late '90s. Even a tidy W124 E class Benz from the late '80s/ early '90s can be a good buy, but what are these things going to be like in 15 to 20 years time? How much will it cost when the batteries need to be replaced? Can you even do that? If the news there isn't good, what will the re-sale be like on a 10 year old Tesla when it looks like being a ticking time bomb?

The big killer for me is price. I would quite happily get a little electric car for running about town, but it would need to be at least comparable in price with a similar sized petrol car. Having spent a couple of months in Scandinavia last year I was very surprised at the number of electric cars in the cities, but I think that the governments are ensuring the price is competitive.

However my "real" car, the one I would take on long trips, will not be able to be electric until I can drive 600-800km a day in such a vehicle. In places where roadhouses might be 300km apart, so the batteries would need to have that sort of range, and be able to be recharged in a similar amount of time I might spend filling my car with petrol and having a cup of whatever passes for coffee at the roadhouse.

What would make me own an electric car?
- A battery that lasts 20 years, charges in less than an hour, and is made of easily accessible materials. The recent breakthrough on the proton battery has promise.
- Electricity from renewable sources.
- Cheaper to run and has comparable range to  that of a 4 cylinder sedan.

Some links on Price retention for USA Model S

https://electrek.co/2016/09/13/tesla-model-s-value-retention-leading-segment-losing-only-28-after-50k-miles/

https://forums.tesla.com/forum/forums/buying-model-s-forget-about-resale-value

https://www.teslarati.com/survey-ranks-used-tesla-model-s-1-retained-value-fastest-selling-among-peers/

https://seekingalpha.com/article/4078314-tesla-resale-value-myth


Battery of mainstream EV's, ie not around city Tonka cars certainly seems to be moving to 350 - 500km battery range.

Below is a few graphs on battery development. The Li-Air seems to be the Holy Grail that has +600km of range in a volume smaller than a standard fuel tank.

I too am on a country property, and with off-grid renewable (solar) power. Currently driving a Mazda BT50 ute.

The ability to recharge using the solar power would be a positive, although would be limited to daylight hours - the battery storage we have is committed to running the house overnight. Similarly, the power-hungry appliances (dishwasher, fruit canning bath, electric grill) are only used by day. And winter's short days also limit power availability at times.

Other factors influencing a possible move to electric for the next vehicle would be:

..capital cost up-front - as a (soon-to-be) retiree, although running cost would be zero, the upfront cost needs to be similar to a conventional vehicle or it becomes unaffordable.

..range - need to be able to do a round trip of say 500km on a charge, "under load". If i'm going to Dubbo, it won't be to buy a burger, it will be to get something big and heavy. And with a trailer.

..configuration - need a small truck/ute with power and a bull bar. I can't imagine the damage a loose kangaroo would do to the front of a model 3 Tesla. They bounce off my BT-50, thanks to a strong, but heavy, bull bar.

I do agree with the folks that say electric cars will work well in the big cities. Most "green" concepts work well in big cities. Including regular and frequent public transport. Unfortunately, the Green lobby tends not to (want to) understand that not everyone lives within comfortable cycling distance of their work/recreational facilities.

Even where you live and intend to use an Electric Vehicle will have to be considered when purchasing one.
I noted poster Sinicklebird gives Mudgee as a 'Home region' which has a totaly different topography and climate to where I am high on the Great Dividing Range just West of Lithgow with its Up Hill, Down Dale See Saw roads and temperature variances of down to minus 10C and possible snow.
Its not uncommon here when going a few kilometres to Town to have to climb up or descend some 200 metres or more, all of which uses  'FUEL' to achieve.
At this time, Electric is interesting but not viable.

Knowing it would be my 'last' new car as I'm now 63 and as mentioned on another thread, 14 years ago I paid over $60K for a fully optioned Works MINI Cooper S.
My cars have to make a statement on the road as they reflect my personality and I'd rather be dead than drive a silver car that blends in with all the other 'white goods' cars on the road. I also have a Thar She Blue 1970 Valiant Pacer hardtop...and that's as subtle as a sledge hammer, but I digress. Part of what makes my MINI the unique car that it is is the sound of the supercharger under load which is music to the ears of a car guy. Battery cars are virtually silent.

In two weeks in the MINI I'll be driving to Thargomindah and Quilpie in S.W Queensland to do some consultancy work for local government and as the car runs on 98 octane, it was bad enough when I used to live in Longreach 10 years ago trying to find 98. I'll be driving around 700Km a day to get to Thargomindah in 2 days and at this time it's impossible to drive an electric car that far in such a short period of time.


A Tesla as I've checked out at Ballan station looks very 'white goods' to me and though I love the battery concept and I see a big future for battery cars they are really too plain for me to consider in the future...though I do own and ride an E-bike...

Mike.

Does anyone here have experience, knowledge or even thoughts about the hybrids, and their future?

Hybrids were originally designed to optimise fuel economy. I.e. Power is mostly supplied by an IC engine running a fuel efficient Atkinson cycle that charges a battery which provides additional power when required, and can also be charged by regenerative braking to recover energy that would otherwise be lost as heat.

Some newer hybrids also have the ability to charge the battery by plugging it in to mains power when the vehicle is at rest and also run on electric power for short distances and at low speeds with the IC engine off.  That's great for conserving fuel if lots of short distances and stop/start traffic is encountered.

Then there are EVs with a small IC engine to provide some extra range or reserve. Ie. BMW i3 with 660cc engine range extender.

They may have a part to play in the futire for vehicles that have to run longer distances. But might have fuel cells instead of IC motors.

Some comments from woodford

a 40kwh battery made from currently availible lithium iron phosphate cells would be around 100 x 90 x 25cm weigh around 450kg and cost around $25,000. Note it would be possible using a slightly different lithium technology to build a battery of the same capacity about half this size and weight, cost though would be the same.

One has to be carefull with a battery ANYTHING like this size as they pack a SERIOUS punch.

Given the current state of batter technology its VERY unlikely a vehicle of whats now reqarded as a reasonable size,weight and performance will have ANYTHING like a decent range required in Victorian rural areas.

I ride an electrcaly assised tadpole (2 wheels in front, single rear driving wheel) trike, It has a usefull range at 80% battery capacity of 80 to 100 or so kilometres, this is on fairly undulating country side.The battery is a 50volt 30AH Lithium iron phosphate, the battery has currently done around 140 cycles in 18 months with NO issues at all, expected life being around 1000 or more cycles, This will give it a life of around 10 years. Cost of the battery was $1200 on special. The motor used is a 500watt item, weight of trike, motor and battery is around 50kg. THe battery is 30 x 17 x 17cm in size.
If one scales these figures for increased for increased size and weight and range of vehicle, one can easily see one will get into some serious issues.

The trike is my main source of transport, I live 10 kilometres from the nearest shop and 30ks from the nearest good sized town and the trike has served me well.

A comment after riding it for so long now is its almost dead silent and I find the noise made most road vehicles to be almost intolerable.

Its likely an electric vehicle of a weight in the 800 to 1000kg class will not be practical unless battery prices fall something like at least 90%, even then there is safety issues that will need to be considered, and its likely the most usefull place for an electric vehicle will be a light weight town car for use in suburban areas and large towns.

woodford

A comment was made in these pages of some of the poor control systems fitted to some of these vehicles, this is something one needs to watch when building these things as some of the controlers and there ascociated controls REALLY are horrible. There is plenty of good stuff though from the industrial and robotic areas.

woodford

I bought a new Skoda Octavia three years ago and, as I'm 64 and I kept my last car for 24 years, I don't think I'll be buying another car.  If I was to buy another car in the future, I wouldn't be spending around $100,000 extra just to get something that doesn't need filled up with petrol once in a while.

A problem we have here is that the situation with electric vehicles is quite fluid with regards to price, so the actual position at any point in the future is unknown, although it is CERTAIN battery prices will fall dramaticly. The current position with Lithium Cells suitable for vehicle battery packs is that the demand GREAT exceeds supply, this is a major reason for the price being so high. The good news is that there is supposed to be a number of large scale lithium battery plants currently under construction and when these come on line the price of battery packs is expected drop dramaticly.

woodford

I bought a new Skoda Octavia three years ago and, as I'm 64 and I kept my last car for 24 years, I don't think I'll be buying another car.  If I was to buy another car in the future, I wouldn't be spending around $100,000 extra just to get something that doesn't need filled up with petrol once in a while.

For $100K, you'd be able to buy two really fancy ones...

Apparently they are now starting from around $35K.

https://www.tesla.com/en_AU/model3

Mike.

I bought a new Skoda Octavia three years ago and, as I'm 64 and I kept my last car for 24 years, I don't think I'll be buying another car.  If I was to buy another car in the future, I wouldn't be spending around $100,000 extra just to get something that doesn't need filled up with petrol once in a while.

For $100K, you'd be able to buy two really fancy ones...

Apparently they are now starting from around $35K.

https://www.tesla.com/en_AU/model3

Mike.

That's the price in the US.  There hasn't been an Australian price released yet and, according to this report, it's going to start at around $55,000: http://reneweconomy.com.au/much-will-tesla-model-3-cost-australia-45583/

At present prices, that's around what I would pay in about 18 years for petrol (and yes, I realise petrol will go up in price, but then I also assume in a decade or so's time I won't be driving as much as I do now).

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=LpaLgF1uLB8
Telsa Model 3 acceleration, I think once your blown away numerous V8's, the lack of the growl sound will a mere shadow of a memory.

.......

There is a stong and ongoing misconception that petrol prices will continue to rise, when in reality over the longer term petrol prices have failed to keep up with inflation without factoring in decreasing fuel consumption per km and the days of $100/barrel are unlikely to be repeated within next 10-20 years if ever according to my industry sources. The previous high prices were on the back of non-sustainable production gaps, not limitations in oil well supply. Standard fuel cars are dropping in fuel consumption by at least around 10% per decade, often more and aligned with other major liquid hydro carbon users such as planes.

The ME is not worried but acknowledges the fact that per capita, the developed world is using less liquid hydro-carbons YoY, but relying on the fact the very large populated developing and emerging economies will fill any voids in demand.

........

Hybrids have killed LPG. In Dubai a Camry Taxi pulls 600km to a tank, but Hybrid does 1000km on Dubai's mostly highway style roads. The Plug in hybrids have a larger battery (I think) and in Sri Lanka where we stayed the Manager was using a Plug in Hybrid to to drivea Mitsubishi 4x4 too from work, charging at both ends. But it was about 5-10km drive I think, meanwhile is petrol/diesel tank needed filling about once a month.

To maximise regen braking in hybrids and EV's such as Tesla drivers are encouraged to by manufacturer to avoid hard braking unless required and focus on coasting braking. Which is what I have to do in hilly areas to stop my wife covering the dashboard with vomit.
........

Price of EV battery, this is why Tesla has built and extending battery manufacturing lines in its Gigga Factory as Musk knows to sell more cars he needs to control and reduce the cost of the battery, which is plus 1/3 the value of his Model 3.

.......

Mike, I think in another thread we discussed actual Model 3 price in Aussie Dollars and generally this is a reflection of RE anything in that its still expensive compared to fossil fuel in most cases. Tesla however changed the way people look at EV's and made them cook as the video link above shows. Still its not a economic decision to buy, its emotional.

Agree that the EV's tend to be appliance like in appearance and I know a few people who have said this was a road block for them to buy an X or S model and certainly for me to even consider a Model 3. The X however would look quite nice in my garage, but not my bank account. I think this is the challenge for the govts, they can mandate RE in power generation, but one of the bigger emitters is personal transport and for much of the world's car buyers, handing over that big wad of cash is to buy something that they feel good about buying and being seen in. Again most personal cars are bought on emotion, not economics although it may set an upper limit of what they actually buy.

......

Charging an EV on home solar

I'm guessing Snicklbird has a 3.5kW PV solar system or a 5kW but with limited battery storage. Something to consider if you have a 500km round trip in your mid sized EV of the future with a small trailer behind it. Assuming battery had the range. You would need a 12-15kW PV solar system just for your car to recharge in one day.

Something to consider,

Australia has 18m car and light trucks, growing at 2%pa. Assume 50% go EV over next 20 years. So about 13m EV's in 20 years.

Average distance driven is 15,000kmpa each. Roughly 1.5km per kW, or 10,000kW pa per vehicle.

= 10,000 x 13m cars = on average 15GW of battery recharging per hour, every hour of the day, mostly at night.

Now the current total Australian Grid generation varies from 20 to 30GW. So the generation needs to increase by around 50% and noting most vehicles will be charging at night.

Pretty much destroys the case for someone off-grid. Great for the mainstream power companies.

I’ll stick with my diesel Ute for long distance; maybe invest in a horse and buggy for short.