It's the economy, stupid!

 
  Valvegear Dr Beeching

Location: Norda Fittazroy
Hey, I've been on this board for a fair while and the Lounge is a valid place for this kind of discussion - why aren't I entitled to an opinion any more than anyone else here?
don_dunstan
Don; read what I wrote. My exact words were, "You can make all the political comment you like. . ."
Nobody says you can't.
Nobody disputes your use of The Lounge.
I'm just curious, that's all.

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  don_dunstan Minister for Railways

Location: Adelaide proud
China has been hitting the panic button in the last 48 hours over the Trump tariffs. This week they've:

- Quickly devalued the Yuan in response to Trump's intention to impose retaliatory tariffs against below-cost Chinese products;
- Launched their own Quantitative Easing program to pump money into their system;
- Cut their 7-day treasury rate by 103 basis points;
- Told their banks to flood the system with liquidity;
- Told their big businesses that more quantitative easing (money printing) is on the way.

Whatever Trump is doing its got them into quite a tizz.
  locojoe67 Assistant Commissioner

Location: Gen X purgatory/urban Joh-land
I'm not angry at you for anything, and I don't need an impromptu lecture from you about your view of the ALP...
Hey, I've been on this board for a fair while and the Lounge is a valid place for this kind of discussion - why aren't I entitled to an opinion any more than anyone else here?

Which flows nicely into the next one...
Poor old Don, living in the past. What jobs do you suggest be created for the uneducated and untrained. These days even laborers...
Okay so we go to the extreme of no job stability for anyone at the end of the spectrum - what next? Lock yourself behind an eight foot fence in a compound every night? Stuffing more and more people into the largest cities will result in more and more mass urban under/unemployment so the current bi-paristan policy will only result in more misery in our urban areas. I don't have any answers, I'm only a passing observer.
don_dunstan

Pretty much, Don. Neither mainstream political party has any particular concern for maintaining upwards mobility. Multi generational welfare families are an outcome of policies deliberately implemented by both parties and ongoing high immigration levels.

Implementing a gst that hits low earners disproportionately harder doesn't help. The dems never recovered from that bit of political suicide.

We are foolishly inciting civil disruption by pretending that every culture in the world can live at peace with each other, if only they come to Australia and have bbqs each weekend. Cultures stratify because people are different. That won't change.

Democracy as such is merely a formal scheme to hide organised theft, in which the most influential groups try to live at the expense of others by lawfully implemented costshifting via legislative reform and barriers to entry.

There is no job stability because people train for non existent or tragically oversupplied jobs. The labour market signals are flawed by over regulation and rent seeking that encourage white collar training. So instead of producing tradesmen and skilled grey collar workers, we produce tens of thousands of lawyers, accountants and psychologists that end up without jobs and a five figure hecs debt.

There are no easy solutions and quick fixes. But importing maccas workers on 457 visas isn't helping, nor is continued urban sprawl into increasingly unviable communities that end up as welfare ghettoes becuase there are no jobs.

We would do better to try and retain some of the old industries like agriculture and manufacturing. They do generate a supply chain effect of employment , and it is clear that buying and selling houses to each other for increasingly large sums of worthless Australian pesos was never a long term solution to wealth creation and funding the baby boomer retirements.
  Groundrelay Chief Commissioner

Location: Surrounded by Trolls!
China has been hitting the panic button in the last 48 hours over the Trump tariffs. This week they've:

- Quickly devalued the Yuan in response to Trump's intention to impose retaliatory tariffs against below-cost Chinese products;
- Launched their own Quantitative Easing program to pump money into their system;
- Cut their 7-day treasury rate by 103 basis points;
- Told their banks to flood the system with liquidity;
- Told their big businesses that more quantitative easing (money printing) is on the way.

Whatever Trump is doing its got them into quite a tizz.
don_dunstan
Yes and when China gets a cold what happens here. China was already overextended and they need Trump like the proverbial.

That said I don't mind seeing how this plays out. Perhaps we do get too much cheap stuff from China and should pay more whether it's made there or somewhere else.
  don_dunstan Minister for Railways

Location: Adelaide proud
China has the most to lose from any trade war with the United States simply because their hybrid public/private sector and local governments have more debt than they can possibly manage - any downturn will destroy them - Bloomberg:

Chinese companies have been piling on debt for at least a decade, ever since the leadership team under Xi’s predecessor unleashed a record borrowing binge in response to the global financial crisis. Corporate debt to GDP ratio surged to a record 160 percent at the end of 2017 from 101 percent 10 years earlier. Xi and his lieutenants have vowed to deflate asset bubbles by, among other steps, reining in excessive corporate borrowing. Starting last year, the government issued a flurry of directives on how money is loaned and managed, with a particular goal of curbing China’s $10 trillion ecosystem of unregulated lending, known as shadow banking.

But it largely hasn't worked; if anything the problem is worse. The whole thing is built on debt upon debt - not that this is anything new, we have the same problem in the 'developed' world. But as pointed out by Zerohedge:

That the massive burden of debt will drag the economy into recession is as obvious as the empty towers that rise on every landscape. Precise estimates are difficult, since the government’s dedication to the optics of invincibility induces financial institutions to push debt into alternate, opaque channels. But on any metric, the amount of new lending each year grows faster than the economy, and the interest newly owed exceeds the incremental rise in GDP. In other words, the whole economy is a Ponzi scheme.

Like everything else in the world. I guess all that will happen if their exports slow down is that they'll depreciate their currency even more; it's a shame Australians aren't allowed to buy property in China because we might be able to help them absorb the 50 million or so empty apartments (that figure has been floating around for a while, could be bigger by now?).
  don_dunstan Minister for Railways

Location: Adelaide proud
There is no job stability because people train for non existent or tragically oversupplied jobs. The labour market signals are flawed by over regulation and rent seeking that encourage white collar training. So instead of producing tradesmen and skilled grey collar workers, we produce tens of thousands of lawyers, accountants and psychologists that end up without jobs and a five figure hecs debt.
locojoe67
Hello Locojoe - this tragic distortion in national vocational outcomes was also designed by Hawke and Keating, in fact they implemented the very system that enslaves those participants in debt allowing and opened the door to universities becoming defacto visa factories. So all the vocational training money got diverted there instead of tradies which is where it was needed especially in a country where construction was one of the holy grail of industries protected (for the moment) from the forces of globalisation.
There are no easy solutions and quick fixes. But importing maccas workers on 457 visas isn't helping, nor is continued urban sprawl into increasingly unviable communities that end up as welfare ghettoes becuase there are no jobs. We would do better to try and retain some of the old industries like agriculture and manufacturing. They do generate a supply chain effect of employment , and it is clear that buying and selling houses to each other for increasingly large sums of worthless Australian pesos was never a long term solution to wealth creation and funding the baby boomer retirements.
locojoe67
Depends on where a trade war heads - the globe might be split between two competing factions like EastAsia and Oceania. A trade war could have all sorts of odd side effects like reinstating jobs off-shored, who knows. Trump is taking us in directions Hilary would never have gone in, that's for sure.
  locojoe67 Assistant Commissioner

Location: Gen X purgatory/urban Joh-land
There is no job stability because people train for non existent or tragically oversupplied jobs. The labour market signals are flawed by over regulation and rent seeking that encourage white collar training. So instead of producing tradesmen and skilled grey collar workers, we produce tens of thousands of lawyers, accountants and psychologists that end up without jobs and a five figure hecs debt.
Hello Locojoe - this tragic distortion in national vocational outcomes was also designed by Hawke and Keating, in fact they implemented the very system that enslaves those participants in debt allowing and opened the door to universities becoming defacto visa factories. So all the vocational training money got diverted there instead of tradies which is where it was needed especially in a country where construction was one of the holy grail of industries protected (for the moment) from the forces of globalisation.
don_dunstan

I remember it well, the Dawkins reforms that converted a bunch of underfunded regional tafe colleges into satellite university campuses. It killed the regional training imperative that had been funds starved to generate a crisis that needed 'solving.'

The vocational training industry was changed dramatically. Numbers declined steadily.

Plus there was the aspirational pressure to attain a university qualification rather than a grubby trades qually.

Proponents would say that the tertiary industry generates revenue by selling tuition to international students. Bullocks to that. I've tutored too many of those same students (and marked their assignments in post grad life) to know it's a dud deal.
  locojoe67 Assistant Commissioner

Location: Gen X purgatory/urban Joh-land
There are no easy solutions and quick fixes. But importing maccas workers on 457 visas isn't helping, nor is continued urban sprawl into increasingly unviable communities that end up as welfare ghettoes becuase there are no jobs. We would do better to try and retain some of the old industries like agriculture and manufacturing. They do generate a supply chain effect of employment , and it is clear that buying and selling houses to each other for increasingly large sums of worthless Australian pesos was never a long term solution to wealth creation and funding the baby boomer retirements.
Depends on where a trade war heads - the globe might be split between two competing factions like EastAsia and Oceania. A trade war could have all sorts of odd side effects like reinstating jobs off-shored, who knows. Trump is taking us in directions Hilary would never have gone in, that's for sure.

Any direction other than that advocated by war crazed leftists, intent on bombing someone, has to be an improvement. And most of the right wing is little better. The 'bomb Iran' movement comes to mind.



https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=o-zoPgv_nYg
  Radioman Chief Train Controller

Hello All,

in relation to the economy talks, I remember what the Canadian scientist, David Suzuki once said.

To paraphrase , if Canada is such a basket case economy ( this was in the late 1970s ) , and for instance , if world trade suddenly stopped tomorrow , Canada could still feed and clothe itself, and still make things , yet many so called advanced economies, given the same circumstance , could not. That being so, why is Canada's economy a basket case ?

To an extent, this also still applies to Australia , Canada and New Zealand today.

Regards, Radioman
  speedemon08 Mary

Location: I think by now you should have figured it out
Any direction other than that advocated by war crazed leftists,
locojoe67
That's something I've never heard of before...
  Groundrelay Chief Commissioner

Location: Surrounded by Trolls!
Any direction other than that advocated by war crazed leftists,
That's something I've never heard of before...
speedemon08
Nationalistic, authoritarian loving ones are the war mongers but don't dare mention that man with the moustache and his Italian side kick!
  don_dunstan Minister for Railways

Location: Adelaide proud
I remember it well, the Dawkins reforms that converted a bunch of underfunded regional tafe colleges into satellite university campuses. It killed the regional training imperative that had been funds starved to generate a crisis that needed 'solving.'

The vocational training industry was changed dramatically. Numbers declined steadily.

Plus there was the aspirational pressure to attain a university qualification rather than a grubby trades qually.

Proponents would say that the tertiary industry generates revenue by selling tuition to international students. Bullocks to that. I've tutored too many of those same students (and marked their assignments in post grad life) to know it's a dud deal.
locojoe67
Also, things like teaching, nursing and medicine should be in their own devolved institutions away from university; those things should not have been turned into incredibly theory heavy university fields. I think Dawkins bought the argument from the universities themselves that in order to market their product to overseas students they needed a consistent brand (UK also went down the same path by abolishing polytechnics) and it pushed through. Quite visionary of the universities really but at the same time they've assumed too much of the vocational training industry and its time for it to be hived off again in my opinion. Also proper secondary technical colleges aimed at industry - that stupid 'services industry' thinking of Hawke and Keating needs to be completely undone.

There's also a growing pile of HECS/HELP debt attached to sending hundreds of thousands of inappropriate students to universities; probably a large proportion of that debt will never, ever be paid back as the Productivity Commission predicted a few years ago.

All we ever do in this country is kick the can further down the road...
  Valvegear Dr Beeching

Location: Norda Fittazroy
nursing and medicine should be in their own devolved institutions away from university;
don_dunstan
That must go close to being the most absurd idea I have ever read. Anyone who makes a statement like that is quite clearly losing his grip on reality.

those things should not have been turned into incredibly theory heavy university fields.
don_dunstan
They are not, and have never been, "incredibly theory heavy". Medicine is almost totally devoid of theory - it is completely science-based. The unsupported theories come in with Naturopathy, Kiniesiology and other similar quack practices that abound, plus other idiots like the Anti-Vaccinators.
  speedemon08 Mary

Location: I think by now you should have figured it out
Any direction other than that advocated by war crazed leftists,
That's something I've never heard of before...
Nationalistic, authoritarian loving ones are the war mongers but don't dare mention that man with the moustache and his Italian side kick!
Groundrelay
Clearly I'm rusty on my part then with world history. Irony is that those two were also nationalistic as well.
  don_dunstan Minister for Railways

Location: Adelaide proud
nursing and medicine should be in their own devolved institutions away from university;
That must go close to being the most absurd idea I have ever read. Anyone who makes a statement like that is quite clearly losing his grip on reality.
Valvegear
You've already made your mind up that I'm wrong - despite the fact that those fields were taught that way until the late 1980's when Dawkins went to work to make universities into degree (and visa) factories. We would be going back to how they were traditionally taught before universities got their grubby paws into vocational institutes.

But again - there's no point in arguing with you because you've already made up your mind.
  Valvegear Dr Beeching

Location: Norda Fittazroy
But again - there's no point in arguing with you because you've already made up your mind.
don_dunstan
Quite clearly, you are speaking from a position of presumed infallibility; you have made your mind up, but apparently I am not permitted to do the same.
Well; It was easy to make my mind up; it was based entirely upon fact and not your political theory.

The fact; the indisputable fact; is that medicine has been a university degree course since well before you were born. It has never been taught at "a devolved institution" or "taught that way until the late 1980's", whatever that may mean.
Nothing changed in medical courses in the Dawkins era, or at any time remotely close to it. There has been a recent change to the course format at Melbourne University, but that's all.

Facts, Don, facts  - not fanatical politics.
  Aaron Minister for Railways

Location: University of Adelaide SA
I am having some trouble with this talk of the difference between science and theory, science is generally always a theory, there are remarkably few scientific laws.

Naturopathy, osteopathy, chiropractic etc are not ‘theoretical’ they’re straight up quackery, ‘universities’ that offer degrees in such ought to be struck off the academic register.

I believe the track the medicine tuition discussion was supposed to be taking was between medicine becoming an increasing theoretical degree as opposed to degree taught through practical excercises. I must admit I abandoned my medical ambitions after first year medicine when I saw where the degree was headed.

I was only marking some mathematics assignments (which med students would also have been doing) one of the questions was something like: ‘A solid bar of uniform material of length 3*pi metres is perfectly insulated at the ends. Heat is radiated away by some combination of given partial differential equations given as a function of temperature and displacement along the rod. A heat of 300 + 6*cos(3t) Celsius is applied at the centre ...’ then a variety of calculations were asked to be made.

Since when has that ever been a practical question? Questions like that have stood for years in mathematics, it was no different when I originally studied the topic, but like everything it was ‘one day this must be going to be useful’ alas, it’s never been. I have never met an integer of Pi length rod, beam, or anything else, I have never met a sinusoidal, cosinusoidal, tangential or hyperbolic temperature source. It’s rubbish when it comes to the real world.
  locojoe67 Assistant Commissioner

Location: Gen X purgatory/urban Joh-land
Peaceful, devout leftists:
https://www.infowars.com/lew-rockwell-hillary-wants-to-start-ww3/

Loving, non violent leftists:


https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Cnq3RrCYG54
  locojoe67 Assistant Commissioner

Location: Gen X purgatory/urban Joh-land

Nothing changed in medical courses in the Dawkins era, or at any time remotely close to it. There has been a recent change to the course format at Melbourne University, but that's all.

Like all institutional courses, Medicine has been changed by its socialist, thought-limiting campus training ground.

It's now a post grad course, meaning prospective students must swallow another year or two of cultural Marxism, whilst doing their undergrad science courses.

The intake of students has become more gender equal, meaning we now invest millions of dollars in training gps who will work, at best, 9-3 a few days a week, and who absolutely refuse to do any bush service where the need is greatest, and the doctor to patient ratio is critically high.

The course has become more patient focussed, with an emphasis on wholistic treatment regimes. Because bedside manner matters, and those smart, white men were accused of talking down to vulnerable, uninformed patients ( during their 80 hour weeks....)

Plus, course syllabi reflects changing cultural mores such as a complete lack of nutrition education. Instead we have the perpetuation of Ansell Keys dietary recommendations that has resulted in generations of obese patients with type 2 diabetes, requiring pharmaceutical intervention and lifelong prescriptions.

That's inbetween attending sponsored conventions where the latest (now with added contraindications!) drug is peddled as the cure-all for modern living. 'Here, have some statins, they're good for you. Hey, let's add them to the water supply.'

Science has put up the for sale sign to corporate sponsors. Science can say whatever the sponsors want it to say. And the ersatz generation of critical thinkers, schooled in post-modern thought processes, have no idea because they opted out of maths courses at the first opportunity.

Logic and reasoning go out the window: Abstract thinking is much too hard.

Very scientific.
  locojoe67 Assistant Commissioner

Location: Gen X purgatory/urban Joh-land
"There's also a growing pile of HECS/HELP debt attached to sending hundreds of thousands of inappropriate students to universities; probably a large proportion of that debt will never, ever be paid back as the Productivity Commission predicted a few years ago."


The waste of capital in training, and the loss of misdirected human lives, staggers the mind. I cannot believe we still pretend to be a humane society, when we school our young adults into such poor decisions that saddle them with useless degrees and massive debt at a young age. And this is before we cajole them to buy overpriced housing at generationally low interest rates.

The warehousing of the young has to stop. They aren't learning higher skills; they're being indoctrinated into believing whatever sick lies are being passed off as truth.

Back in the 90s I remember watching a doco then of the lives of the unemployed ( don't worry, i experienced it for myself). Included in that lot was a young guy doing his masters in accountancy, becuase couldn't find a job with his undergrad. I wonder what happened to him?
  locojoe67 Assistant Commissioner

Location: Gen X purgatory/urban Joh-land
Nationalistic, authoritarian loving ones are the war mongers but don't dare mention that man with the moustache and his Italian side kick!
Clearly I'm rusty on my part then with world history. Irony is that those two were also nationalistic as well.

So, human passions are exploited for political gain.

Since when is this news?
  Valvegear Dr Beeching

Location: Norda Fittazroy
I am having some trouble with this talk of the difference between science and theory, science is generally always a theory, there are remarkably few scientific laws.

Naturopathy, osteopathy, chiropractic etc are not ‘theoretical’ they’re straight up quackery, ‘universities’ that offer degrees in such ought to be struck off the academic register.
"Aaron"
Aaron, basically I agree with what you have written. To be strictly accurate, a theory is propounded in order to explain observable evidence - Evolution being the most obvious example.
I did take the precaution of labelling naturopathy and others as "unsupported theories" just to point to the differenvce but, yes; they are quackeries.
Medicine does operate with the benefit of many years of evidence, at lot of which is no longer theory. . .  how fracures heal, what causes measles, how vaccines work et al, et al, ad nauseam.
I do, however, refuse to join the fanatical conspiracy theorists who consider medical studies to be perverted by Communits/Lefties/Fascists/ Right Wingers (tick one).
  don_dunstan Minister for Railways

Location: Adelaide proud
Facts, Don, facts  - not fanatical politics.
Valvegear
It isn't fanatical politics - where do you get these ideas from? There's nothing wrong with wanting to devolve power away from universities back to institutions that specialised in vocational training and were indeed attached to hospitals and schools for that very purpose. You're hysterical over nothing - have a Bex and a good lie down.
The waste of capital in training, and the loss of misdirected human lives, staggers the mind. I cannot believe we still pretend to be a humane society, when we school our young adults into such poor decisions that saddle them with useless degrees and massive debt at a young age. And this is before we cajole them to buy overpriced housing at generationally low interest rates. The warehousing of the young has to stop. They aren't learning higher skills; they're being indoctrinated into believing whatever sick lies are being passed off as truth.
locojoe67
As you say its a horrendous waste of resources and it accomplishes absolutely nothing; it isn't even fit-for-purpose because its not even producing trained people where the demand apparently is. The fact that a "skilled visa" exists at all when we have 40% of the Australian population with some kind of degree is ridiculous. We have so much education based here we should be exporting our own people, not importing "skilled" people. There's a statistic floating around like 80% of all graduates won't have anything to do with the chosen profession because there's simply no demand for them.

In any other language you're setting the majority of people up to fail. For what purpose? Part of the problem is that the universities themselves have become extremely power institutions in their own right - the average Group of Eight Vice Chancellor gets a package of a million dollars and they're very powerfully politically connected (often they're ex-Premiers or politicans like John Brumby at Latrobe). They lobby government to increase the amount of money being spent on their system to keep the whole show going... that powerful cabal will do anything and everything to stop meaningful reform.
  don_dunstan Minister for Railways

Location: Adelaide proud
It’s rubbish when it comes to the real world.
Aaron
I met a 4th year Vet Science student who complained that they had to do exactly that: Physics until its coming out your orifices. Why? What relevance does it have to the practice of vet science?
  Valvegear Dr Beeching

Location: Norda Fittazroy
It isn't fanatical politics - where do you get these ideas from? You're hysterical over nothing - have a Bex and a good lie down.
don_dunstan

It get the ideas directly from your writings.
If you're not a political fanatic, then you're a pretty good imitation of one.
Cold, sober facts don't interest you. Discussion of facts doesn't interest you.
You also have a very strange definition of hysteria.I am trying to take medical education out of the political arena where you're trying ( wrongly) to put it.  Your fevered perceptions of politics take over, and reason goes out the door.

P.S. It's a medical fact that Bex isn't good for you. Haven't you heard of Dr. Priscilla Kincaid-Smith's research findings into the effect of phenacetin on the kidneys? Oops! . . . another fact.

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