Scott Morrison's imploding act

 

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Posted 3 years ago

  don_dunstan The Ghost of George Stephenson

Location: Adelaide proud
Shorten would need to totally repudiate the policy of the Hawke/Keating era for me to ever vote for them again.

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  Groundrelay Chief Commissioner

Location: Surrounded by Trolls!
Shorten would need to totally repudiate the policy of the Hawke/Keating era for me to ever vote for them again.
don_dunstan
Poor dear, to have been so traumatised Sad

Each party exists for a reason. Essentially it's the individual vs society and the role of government. Of course they’ll say whatever is necessary to get into power and stay there because all the ideology in the world is pointless if you’re always in opposition. That seems particularly so for Labor.
  don_dunstan The Ghost of George Stephenson

Location: Adelaide proud
Shorten would need to totally repudiate the policy of the Hawke/Keating era for me to ever vote for them again.
Poor dear, to have been so traumatised Sad

Each party exists for a reason. Essentially it's the individual vs society and the role of government. Of course they’ll say whatever is necessary to get into power and stay there because all the ideology in the world is pointless if you’re always in opposition. That seems particularly so for Labor.
Groundrelay
That might be so but then their expediency extends to pretty much everything and everyone, they really don't have any policies outside of spending more money. They're going to go into full Keynesian mode when they hit office but that will be their only response going into a full global crisis as I'm sure it will be by then. My vote won't make a fig of difference to that reality; I'm just a bystander.
  RTT_Rules Oliver Bullied, CME

Location: Dubai UAE
There is more to state budgets than stamp duty, provided those other fundamentals don't suffer too much they will be fine.
Again, please Google these things before you write. Stamp duty is the single biggest revenue source for the Victorian government (for example) and it constitutes one third of all the revenues that the VIC government gets at around $7 billion p/a. And it's shrinking at a very rapid rate thanks the the current property crisis. They get $55,000 every time a million dollar house sells - that's a whole lot of taxation revenue for doing nothing more than allowing the transfer of a title... trouble is they're totally dependent on that money. If there's suddenly a lot less money coming in from that then goodbye budgetary surplus.
Don, assuming any Australian expat who doesn't have a foreign PR doesn't know what is going on in the Australia real estate market would be a mistake on your part!
But you don't live here - full-stop. I'm not saying that you don't have any understanding at all - but I'm just pointing out the obvious that you still don't actually permanently reside here so it's impossible for you to be immersed in what's going on.
The downward trend in Sydney and Melbourne property markets is hardly news to anyone. We have been talking about it here for at least two years
No - the current downturn in Sydney and Melbourne both started at the same time, September 2017 - only fourteen months, not two full years.
Meanwhile most of the other state capitals are holding their own or only seeing minor changes in either direction.
Again, refer to that Corelogic chart that I linked for you, the only capital city experiencing any appreciable capital growth in the last 12 months is my own city of Adelaide - and even then it's only 1.77%. I have no idea why we're holding our own here, probably because we've long been a favourite destination of east coast investors priced out of Sydney and Melbourne, not because of our economic prospects.

You mention government expenditure, quite a few state governments have bad-looking balance sheets my own included - that's why our SA Treasurer Rob Lucas has announced no new projects of any kind for SA in the next twelve months - they're tightening the belt. The NT and WA must win the prize for worst deteriorating balance sheets in recent years though - Colin Barnett managed to put WA into debt in the midst of a mining boom and then leave it for someone else to manage; and the NT government is going to have liabilities totaling $7.5 billion and a $1 billion budget deficit this year, that's $37,000 for each resident.
don_dunstan
I did look it up
Vic - $7B of ~$60B of income, 11.6%
NSW - $9B of ~$80B of income, 11.1%.
NSW has in their forward estimates a reduction of around $2B for a few years and even this year less than last. I have no idea what Vic has estimated going forward.

Hence my previous comments before were correct. Its not a major a part of the budget as you seemed to portray and even in a down turn there is still turn over of property, it won't drop to zero, unlikely even a half and if the states have budgeted for a down turn (like NSW), they they wil be ok and like NSW, they have a surplus of a few Billion and no net debt to help absorb any loss of income without raising taxes.

The concept of running a budget surplus in the good time is to leave scope in the budget in the bad times to maintain spending or even increase spending without going on bended knee to China. The Left who don't care about surpluses go on social welfare spending sprees leaving the state/country in the poo when the poo hits the fan. I haven't looked up Vic, but NSW is well positioned to absorb a 5-10% reduction in overall income, Qld however is not having to spend another generation paying off Anna B's debt machine. However at least they are running a small surplus and did not enjoy a major windfall in stamp duty.

"But you don't live here", end-less record. You don't live in NSW, Qld, NT, WA, Tas, ACT and even these days Vic either. So your hands on experience is no different and leaves you as well positioned to comment on those states as myself. I have family and friends in most states including SA and visit them as well. When was the last time you went to NSW and Qld? We go almost every year.

The cities that are still experiencing growth in real estate is Canberra, Hobart, Adelaide and another?? This data is well published on a monthly basis in most mainstream media including ABC.

Adelaide, Hobart, Canberra are going ok because investors have left the major capitals and looking for returns and price security.

The NT budget is in major poo.

WA started the boom sensibly but they got carried away with the mining income.

I've said it before and I'll say it again, the states and Fed's should not have the ability to use royalties directly in budgets. It should go to a sovereign wealth fund, 50:50 state: fed and then they have the ability to spend half the interest and never touch the capital unless in a time of war.
  don_dunstan The Ghost of George Stephenson

Location: Adelaide proud
THIS will make Andrew Bolt froth at the mouth - Malcolm Turnbull has gone on a special edition of ABC's Q&A to name and condemn the individual plotters against his leadership:

"I think those people who are responsible for taking a successful, competitive government and literally blowing it up need to have an explanation," he said.

"The reality is, people have got to be adults and be accountable."

For the first time, Mr Turnbull named nine key figures in the insurgency — Peter Dutton, who led the challenge, and backers Tony Abbott, Greg Hunt, Mathias Cormann, Mitch Fifield, Steve Ciobo, Michaelia Cash, Michael Keenan and Angus Taylor.

"It never occurred to me that those people would act in a way that was going to be so damaging both to the Government, to the party and, frankly, to the nation," he said.

"It was so obvious that the coup, the insurgency, was going to be destructive. It was so obvious that there was not going to be any upside to it — and of course that's what's turned out."

But what's the difference between what they did and what you did to Tony Abbott?
  don_dunstan The Ghost of George Stephenson

Location: Adelaide proud
Also I think Malcolm is living in a dream-world (as the super-rich are apt to do I guess). "Successful, competitive government"? He wasn't talking about his own government then...
  Valvegear Oliver Bullied, CME

Location: Norda Fittazroy
If he really did say, " . . . literally blowing it up" he needs to go away, and get an English teacher to tell him what "literally" means.  
The famous  man who tried to "literally" blow up a government was Guy Fawkes - the only person ever to enter parliament with honest intentions.
  RTT_Rules Oliver Bullied, CME

Location: Dubai UAE
Also I think Malcolm is living in a dream-world (as the super-rich are apt to do I guess). "Successful, competitive government"? He wasn't talking about his own government then...
don_dunstan
I generally have a policy of ignoring ex-PM's comments on govt, they had their chance, now enjoy your pension and be quiet, especially ones that sacked them!
  don_dunstan The Ghost of George Stephenson

Location: Adelaide proud
I did look it up
Vic - $7B of ~$60B of income, 11.6%
NSW - $9B of ~$80B of income, 11.1%.
NSW has in their forward estimates a reduction of around $2B for a few years and even this year less than last. I have no idea what Vic has estimated going forward.

Hence my previous comments before were correct. Its not a major a part of the budget as you seemed to portray and even in a down turn there is still turn over of property, it won't drop to zero, unlikely even a half and if the states have budgeted for a down turn (like NSW), they they wil be ok and like NSW, they have a surplus of a few Billion and no net debt to help absorb any loss of income without raising taxes.
RTT_Rules

You have included revenue from all soruces including Commonwealth grants and GST - I'm looking purely at the money the states manage to raise from their own efforts. And it looks like Victoria in particular is in for a big fall - State Revenue.

So the tax that Victoria by itself collects has TRIPLED since the turn of the century. You really don't think there's going to be any pain if they lose a few billion in revenues from the collapse of stamp duty receipts? It's going to be a full-blown crisis, the amount of money they spend goes up continually, not down. Any reversal in revenues will have all sort of consequences like the state credit rating going down (more expensive borrowed money), cancellation of projects of slashing of spending. It's going to create the negative feedback loop that we haven't seen since the last recession.
  michaelgm Chief Commissioner

Shane, do agree with the above. You had your shot go away.
But Keatings comments can be amusing.
Julia has and is doing some great work, and showed nothing but class leaving parliament as agreed. She should be remembered for more than the no carbon tax under the government I lead, BS. And stood up, fronted the media with Slatter/Gorden matter? And answered all questions until none were left. But That voice:evil:
Foley, yesterday, said resigning leadership, staying as local member, taking legal action, and promptly pi$$ed off.
  Groundrelay Chief Commissioner

Location: Surrounded by Trolls!
I generally have a policy of ignoring ex-PM's comments on govt, they had their chance, now enjoy your pension and be quiet, especially ones that sacked them!
RTT_Rules
Because you’ve never referred to comments made by Abbott since he was rolled? Confused
No sympathy for Turnbull though. Self-inflicted wounds aren’t the same as those on the battlefield. If he took on the extremely wrought he would be still have the job and his dignity.

Too bad, so sad Laughing
  RTT_Rules Oliver Bullied, CME

Location: Dubai UAE
I generally have a policy of ignoring ex-PM's comments on govt, they had their chance, now enjoy your pension and be quiet, especially ones that sacked them!
Because you’ve never referred to comments made by Abbott since he was rolled? Confused
No sympathy for Turnbull though. Self-inflicted wounds aren’t the same as those on the battlefield. If he took on the extremely wrought he would be still have the job and his dignity.

Too bad, so sad Laughing
Groundrelay
Don't have time for TA's post PM behavior either, I've said that. However TA isn't entitled to PM pension so, resigning from the house is less attractive for him especially as he's not even 55 yet.

Remember the old phrase, "when ever a guy marries his mistress he's created a job vacancy."

So, "whenever someone actively dumps the PM/party leader, he's just created a job vacancy".

Pretty much same thing.
  don_dunstan The Ghost of George Stephenson

Location: Adelaide proud
Scott Morrison's government gets even more unpopular with the punters: Via News.com.au:

The coalition has sunk further below Labor to 45-55 on a two-party preferred basis - sitting just one point higher than it did in the days following the August leadership spill.

The Newspoll published in The Australian shows the Liberal-National primary vote is similarly in trouble at 35 per cent, down one point since the last poll and two points above the record low set in late August.

"I knew when stepping up into this role there would be a big mountain to climb, and there's a very steep one, but I've climbed those mountains before," Mr Morrison told Ten on Monday.

And I've heard rumours that they're looking at a half-senate election to try and limit the damage... is there anything these desperate people won't do in order to cling onto power?
  YM-Mundrabilla Minister for Railways

Location: Mundrabilla but I'd rather be in Narvik
Scott Morrison's government gets even more unpopular with the punters: Via News.com.au:

The coalition has sunk further below Labor to 45-55 on a two-party preferred basis - sitting just one point higher than it did in the days following the August leadership spill.

The Newspoll published in The Australian shows the Liberal-National primary vote is similarly in trouble at 35 per cent, down one point since the last poll and two points above the record low set in late August.

"I knew when stepping up into this role there would be a big mountain to climb, and there's a very steep one, but I've climbed those mountains before," Mr Morrison told Ten on Monday.

And I've heard rumours that they're looking at a half-senate election to try and limit the damage... is there anything these desperate people won't do in order to cling onto power?
don_dunstan
Isn't each election normally a half senate election?

Either way, whatever the result, it's scary.
  michaelgm Chief Commissioner

Speculation was that the Senate election, half senate this time. Would be prior to the HOR. Two separate and expensive trips to the ballot box. Good way to pi$$ off the punters.
  lsrailfan Chief Commissioner

Location: Somewhere you're not
Either way the Morrison Government is finished, the people have stopped listening, and they don't give a crap, If the result in Wentworth wasn't enough to scare the pollies into action, then what is...

Kind Regards
  don_dunstan The Ghost of George Stephenson

Location: Adelaide proud
Either way the Morrison Government is finished, the people have stopped listening, and they don't give a crap, If the result in Wentworth wasn't enough to scare the pollies into action, then what is...

Kind Regards
lsrailfan
Incapable of doing anything - I knew nothing was going to change when Morrison comes out only a week or so after getting the job saying we needed a new Australia Day in the name of Aboriginal reconciliation.

What?

There's a million other things happening and he chooses to talk about THAT? Truly we're screwed if we have a government that refuses to talk about the myriad of issues affecting ordinary Australians (gas, electricity, jobs, the crashing real-estate market). They can't breathe a word of those real issues because they have no plan for doing anything about them.
  georges Train Controller

Morrison's past catching up with him?

"Ever since Scott Morrison was sacked from his job as managing director of Tourism Australia in 2006, the reasons for his dismissal have been kept secret.

But an auditor-general’s report completed 10 years ago, which has escaped public scrutiny until now, reveals that in the period leading up to Morrison’s dismissal, his agency faced a series of audits and a review of its contractual processes ordered by the Department of Prime Minister and Cabinet, amid serious concerns about its governance."

https://www.thesaturdaypaper.com.au/news/politics/2018/11/10/exclusive-auditor-general-found-morrison-breaches/15417684007120
  M636C Minister for Railways

Insiders on Sunday had an extract of an interview with Morrison in Gladstone (Q) during his "bus" trip.

While the bus was indeed driving north from the Gold Coast to Townsville, Morrison was flying in RAAF VIP aircraft between cities.

Reporter    "Are you catching the bus to Rockhampton?"  (around 100 km)

PM             "the bus is going to Rockhampton"

Reporter      "Will you be on it?"

PM               "No, I have an earlier appointment in Rockhampton so I am flying"

Reporter       "So what is the bus for?"

PM               " I just got off it - I use it for travelling around"

Reporter        "And the bus is going to Townsville?"

PM                 "Yes"

Reporter          And you are flying to Townsville?"

PM                " Yes"
  don_dunstan The Ghost of George Stephenson

Location: Adelaide proud
Malcolm Turnbull is turning into one of those angry ghosts that he so publicly derided (News.com.au);

Malcolm Turnbull has continued his criticism of the government in the wake of his ousting as prime minister.

And he has taken a pointed swipe at the man who instigated the leadership coup, Home Affairs Minister Peter Dutton.

Mr Turnbull was a keynote speaker at the gala Australian Bar Association dinner in Sydney last night and although reporters were barred from the event, his barbs were heard.

Fairfax Media reporter Michael Koziol stood on the street above the Cutaway function space at Barangaroo, where the ousted PM could be seen through gaps in the roof and his echoing words clearly heard.

“If Peter was the answer, you’d have to ask: what was the question?” Mr Turnbull said to the crowd of high-powered lawyers and barristers.

The comment drew “roars of laughter and applause”, according to Fairfax.

Does the irony not escape him? He's now doing exactly what he criticised Rudd and Abbott for - not shutting up about politics after leaving the top job. It's not enough that he's a multi-millionaire with a Point Piper mansion, he needs to continue wreaking the LNP because they were stupid enough to make him Prime Minister for an abysmal two years of failure.

Just shut the hell up, Malcolm and let Morrison have some clear air... like you said you were going to do.
  don_dunstan The Ghost of George Stephenson

Location: Adelaide proud
Scott Morrison's interesting history prior to entering politics (The Saturday Paper); seems that ScoMo has left more than one job after an audit report put his management of various organisations under a cloud:

Seven years before he was sacked as managing director of Tourism Australia – amid serious concerns about his management practices – Scott Morrison was the subject of criticism in a New Zealand audit report examining his activities as head of NZ’s Office of Tourism and Sport.

The 1999 report by NZ’s controller and auditor-general examined the December 1998 resignations of two heads of the NZ Tourism Board, as well as payouts to them that were later found to be unlawful. The report criticised Morrison’s role in the lead-up to these events.

Scott Morrison left NZ’s Office of Tourism and Sport in 2000, a year after the audit report was published and a year before the end of his contract. The reasons for his early departure have never been fully explained.

The NZ auditor’s criticisms of Morrison – who is named in the report – are similar to some of those the Australian National Audit Office (ANAO) would make nine years later in its own report examining the management of Tourism Australia.

In general terms, they included non-consultation, making unilateral decisions, not observing due process and restricting board access to information.

So that makes two tourism jobs he was pushed out of or sacked from - Tourism Australia in 2007 is particularly interesting because he appears to have been sacked for mis-management there but Dan Tehan (present Education Minister and the Chief of Staff for Fran Bailey in 2007 when the Minister sacked Morrison because of 'irregularities') has consistently refused to answer questions about Morrison's departure from the job.

And he's Prime Minister?
  don_dunstan The Ghost of George Stephenson

Location: Adelaide proud
Has anyone been following this interesting tiff between Scott Morrison and Pamela Anderson? From the ABC:

Actor Pamela Anderson has lashed out at Prime Minister Scott Morrison via an open letter, saying he "trivialised" the suffering of Australian WikiLeaks founder Julian Assange, and made "lewd" comments about her.

Anderson, a former Baywatch star, appeared on 60 Minutes Australia earlier this month, sharing details of her friendship with Mr Assange and urging Mr Morrison to "defend your friend, get Julian his passport back and take him back to Australia and be proud of him, and throw him a parade when he gets home".

Mr Assange, who published thousands of classified United States documents, has been living in political asylum at the Ecuadorian embassy in London since 2012 to avoid extradition.

When asked on commercial radio if he would follow Anderson's advice by throwing Mr Assange a parade, Mr Morrison said: "Well no, first of all, but next, I've had plenty of mates who've asked me if they can be my special envoy to sort the issue out with Pamela Anderson."

Very statesman-like, Scotty.
  Greensleeves Chief Commissioner

Location: If it isn't obvious by now, it should be.
Has anyone been following this interesting tiff between Scott Morrison and Pamela Anderson? From the ABC:

Actor Pamela Anderson has lashed out at Prime Minister Scott Morrison via an open letter, saying he "trivialised" the suffering of Australian WikiLeaks founder Julian Assange, and made "lewd" comments about her.

Anderson, a former Baywatch star, appeared on 60 Minutes Australia earlier this month, sharing details of her friendship with Mr Assange and urging Mr Morrison to "defend your friend, get Julian his passport back and take him back to Australia and be proud of him, and throw him a parade when he gets home".

Mr Assange, who published thousands of classified United States documents, has been living in political asylum at the Ecuadorian embassy in London since 2012 to avoid extradition.

When asked on commercial radio if he would follow Anderson's advice by throwing Mr Assange a parade, Mr Morrison said: "Well no, first of all, but next, I've had plenty of mates who've asked me if they can be my special envoy to sort the issue out with Pamela Anderson."

Very statesman-like, Scotty.
don_dunstan
Still trying to put on the 'average Aussie bloke' act?
  Carnot Minister for Railways

Has anyone been following this interesting tiff between Scott Morrison and Pamela Anderson? From the ABC:

Actor Pamela Anderson has lashed out at Prime Minister Scott Morrison via an open letter, saying he "trivialised" the suffering of Australian WikiLeaks founder Julian Assange, and made "lewd" comments about her.

Anderson, a former Baywatch star, appeared on 60 Minutes Australia earlier this month, sharing details of her friendship with Mr Assange and urging Mr Morrison to "defend your friend, get Julian his passport back and take him back to Australia and be proud of him, and throw him a parade when he gets home".

Mr Assange, who published thousands of classified United States documents, has been living in political asylum at the Ecuadorian embassy in London since 2012 to avoid extradition.

When asked on commercial radio if he would follow Anderson's advice by throwing Mr Assange a parade, Mr Morrison said: "Well no, first of all, but next, I've had plenty of mates who've asked me if they can be my special envoy to sort the issue out with Pamela Anderson."

Very statesman-like, Scotty.
Still trying to put on the 'average Aussie bloke' act?
Greensleeves
And it might just be working - latest IPSOS poll has the Coalition closing the gap (now 48/52).

Bill Shorten's big issue might be his Negative Gearing policy.  He's betting that property investors are nearly all Coalition voters already.  I'm not so sure that's the case.  And it could bite him hard.
  Groundrelay Chief Commissioner

Location: Surrounded by Trolls!
Bill Shorten's big issue might be his Negative Gearing policy.  He's betting that property investors are nearly all Coalition voters already.  I'm not so sure that's the case.  And it could bite him hard.
Carnot
Negative gearing is something that needs to be addressed. Any tax break means something else has to be cut and with an aging population things like healthcare funding will need to keep increasing.

Fact remains, the vast majority of people don't and won't have a negatively geared investment property. However Labor needs to tread carefully, say phasing it out whilst capping deductions for existing dwellings.

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