So with future population growth we can look at which lines will need high capacity trains for the future projected load and who needs then now
We can see the lines that will need HCMTs based on this growth and patronage data are the Mernda, Werribee, Cragieburn and Sandringham.
The first two, Mernda and Werribee will eventually run via Metro 2 and there will be a branch to Wollert so that takes care of itself. The Cragieburn Line is the most overcrowded and is growing so it needs HCMTs as well.
Based on statistics
Mernda (proportion of overcrowded services is 46%, will keep going up)
Werribee (proportion of overcrowd services is 47%, will keep going up)
Cragieburn (proportion of overcrowded services is 63%, that will keep going up)
Sandringham (proportion of overcrowded services is 47%)
Two of those lines Sandringham and Cragieburn have had little or no extra services added in quite a few years. This can address the issue and it will in the short term, look at the Frankston Line and the success with 10 Minute turn up and go. However, Peak Hour is crammed and even off peak is crowded on these lines above.
Pakenham, Sunbury and Cranbourne are getting the HCMTs, possibly Melton as well. We know about Mernda and the growth up there, we know about Werribee and the massive growth in that corridor.
If you look at annual patronage growth the Sandringham and Upfield Lines have the highest, excluding the Metro Tunnel candidates. The latter will obviously get extra services once Duplication and capacity opens up.
So next in line for HCMTs
- Werribee and Mernda (Metro 2 perhaps)
- Sandringham (and I can’t believe in saying that)