Load Shedding in Victoria - 25/01/2019

 
  mikesyd Chief Commissioner

Location: Lurking
I wonder who the Federal Government will pin the blame for todays effort on.

https://www.abc.net.au/news/2019-01-25/extreme-heat-for-victoria-melbourne-hottest-day-in-a-decade/10748330

Sponsored advertisement

  bevans Site Admin

Location: Melbourne, Australia
Lost power just after noon and has just come back.
  RTT_Rules Dr Beeching

Location: Dubai UAE
I wonder who the Federal Government will pin the blame for todays effort on.

https://www.abc.net.au/news/2019-01-25/extreme-heat-for-victoria-melbourne-hottest-day-in-a-decade/10748330
mikesyd
who to blame is simple, the owner of the problem, the State of Victoria!

They did not commission adequate replacement for Hazellwood and placed their reliance on wind, solar, peaking gas and leaching off Qld.

Note the issue today has been driven today by a loss of some of the brown coal capacity, nearly 1000MW. Wind output for the country is a poultry 1.5GW, 440 MW for Vic.
  potatoinmymouth Chief Commissioner

the issue today has been driven today by a loss of some of the brown coal capacity
RTT_Rules

Yep, that reliable base load capacity is working really bloody well.

The spin around this issue is astonishing. The state government didn’t “close down Hazelwood” - its private owner did citing the cost of repairs to make it viable in the long run. Expecting the state government, then, to wear the investment risk for some other private investor to “commission new capacity” (by which right-wing pundits inevitably need coal) is a complete perversion of the market forces that were supposed to save the taxpayer money.

Of course there’s no market incentive to build capacity that will be used once or twice a year. That’s economic unviability 101.
  Lad_Porter Chief Commissioner

Location: Yarra Glen
They will blame "renewables", despite the fact that there is a lot of wind and sunshine today, not just in Victoria.  

There are thousands of rooftop solar installations, which are either powering devices locally or feeding in.   If these thousands of solar installations suddenly ceased to exist, then the grid really would be in trouble.
  mikesyd Chief Commissioner

Location: Lurking
There are 3 Units Offline in the Latrobe Valley as well :

2 at Yallourn - about 700 MW

1 at Loy Yang A - about 530 MW
  bevans Site Admin

Location: Melbourne, Australia
There was plenty of sun and wind today Smile
  RTT_Rules Dr Beeching

Location: Dubai UAE
the issue today has been driven today by a loss of some of the brown coal capacity

Yep, that reliable base load capacity is working really bloody well.

The spin around this issue is astonishing. The state government didn’t “close down Hazelwood” - its private owner did citing the cost of repairs to make it viable in the long run. Expecting the state government, then, to wear the investment risk for some other private investor to “commission new capacity” (by which right-wing pundits inevitably need coal) is a complete perversion of the market forces that were supposed to save the taxpayer money.

Of course there’s no market incentive to build capacity that will be used once or twice a year. That’s economic unviability 101.
potatoinmymouth
If you place 100% of your trust in a machine that is reliable 95% of the time, expect to fail, which is why the wholesale price in Vic more than doubled the day after Hazellwood closed and remained there ever since.

Agree on the peak and usage, but its got to the point coal is running mostly at capacity, ie no spare units, in the past aging units were kept operational and brought on line in advance of days like today. So you want to plan for those few days a year and not build more coal, you need peaking gas and have a gas supply sitting there waiting for the wind to drop and the sun to shine.

No, the Govt didn't close Hazellwood, but they didn't plan for any backup to replace even some of its capacity.

The situation will be even worse when Liddel closes.

The SE corner needs a replacement baseload 2000MW power station.
  RTT_Rules Dr Beeching

Location: Dubai UAE
They will blame "renewables", despite the fact that there is a lot of wind and sunshine today, not just in Victoria.  

There are thousands of rooftop solar installations, which are either powering devices locally or feeding in.   If these thousands of solar installations suddenly ceased to exist, then the grid really would be in trouble.
Lad_Porter
and you would be 50% very much wrong.

Solar is doing its job while its still early, however after 4pm its contribution will decline rapidly placing even more load on the thermal and hydro produces unless the wind picks up dramatically.

There is buggerall output from the wind farms nation wide, less than 1.5GW, only 440 MW from Vic. So yes, reliance on this was a failure and yes I will place blame and others have the right to do so. When will people learn wind is unreliable and only usfull as a minor subsitute to normal supply and boost for hydro or similar.
  RTT_Rules Dr Beeching

Location: Dubai UAE
There are 3 Units Offline in the Latrobe Valley as well :

2 at Yallourn - about 700 MW

1 at Loy Yang A - about 530 MW
mikesyd
I'm sure there will be a please explain on this as their reliability impacts on the govts focus and PR campaign for its focus for more RE.
  BigShunter Chief Commissioner

Location: St Clair. S.A.
There are 3 Units Offline in the Latrobe Valley as well :

2 at Yallourn

1 at Loy Yang A
mikesyd
Yes, that was on the news, over here, they were talking about, drawing power from the national grid, to hopefully keep the air cons running, with the extreme heat, yesterday, but said, some units in Victoria, were not able to run at maximum output, due to having maintenance, done.

Not sure, what genius would decide on reducing power out put, this time of year.

BigShunter.
  RTT_Rules Dr Beeching

Location: Dubai UAE
There are 3 Units Offline in the Latrobe Valley as well :

2 at Yallourn

1 at Loy Yang A
Yes, that was on the news, over here, they were talking about, drawing power from the national grid, to hopefully keep the air cons running, with the extreme heat, yesterday, but said, some units in Victoria, were not able to run at maximum output, due to having maintenance, done.

Not sure, what genius would decide on reducing power out put, this time of year.

BigShunter.
BigShunter
https://aemo.com.au/Electricity/National-Electricity-Market-NEM/Data-dashboard#nem-dispatch-overview

Vic wholesale price $300, pulling max from SA (thank god there is some wind there) and Tas, the later of which has a wholesale price of just $13/MWh. Interties from both states at the max.

ironically power is also been passed through Vic into NSW with Qld's interties into NSW also at max. Whole sale price in Qld is at $144/MWh.

I'd dare say one turbine is off for maintenance as they usually plan better and others have failed.
  mikesyd Chief Commissioner

Location: Lurking
Apparently one of the Yallourn Units failed last night.
  bevans Site Admin

Location: Melbourne, Australia
Apparently one of the Yallourn Units failed last night.
mikesyd

Of course it did meaning the price of power from that generating station would need to be a lot higher for sale today.
  Lad_Porter Chief Commissioner

Location: Yarra Glen
One would hope that routine maintenance would be scheduled for an off peak time, but if a unit fails then it must be fixed ASAP, and of course it will be offline while the work is done.
  RTT_Rules Dr Beeching

Location: Dubai UAE
Apparently one of the Yallourn Units failed last night.

Of course it did meaning the price of power from that generating station would need to be a lot higher for sale today.
bevans
Not "that" power station, the whole network!
  james.au Chief Commissioner

Location: Sydney, NSW
Wind output for the country is a poultry....
RTT_Rules
Made me laugh thinking about chicken wing flap powered fans....
  RTT_Rules Dr Beeching

Location: Dubai UAE
Wind output for the country is a poultry....
Made me laugh thinking about chicken wing flap powered fans....
james.au
Yeah, I actually did that one intentionally, because the total output currently is less than the largest single wind farm and a bunch a chickens could do better.

I'm not anti Wind, it just has its place and too many place their blind faith in it.
  DirtyBallast Chief Commissioner

Location: I was here first. You're only visiting.
It's worth noting that RTT thinks that a new base load station shoulda been planned and built in the three month period between the announcement of Hazelwood's closure, and its actual closure. Yeah, right.

Let's look at some actual truths.

Today, during much of the period when SP Ausnet (which distributes to the eastern portion of Vic, including Melbourne's eastern 'burbs) had over 20,000 customers offline mainly (but not exclusively) due to load shedding, electricity was still flowing to NSW from Victoria. Really. This, despite lots of spare capacity available in NSW.

Loy Yang 3 suffered a tube leak in its boiler on Tuesday afternoon. Yallourn 4 is offline for planned maintenance and is due back early next week. Yallourn 3 failed this morning. Loy Yang 2 is struggling at less than 70% capacity at the moment. The 500MW buffer, currently provided by spare gas fired generation, would still have to be maintained even if there was only one coal fired generating unit left in service...in case it broke down.  

The amount of solar electricity generated seen on sites such as electricitymap.org is EXCESS solar placed onto the grid from rooftops, aside from the small amount presently generated from solar farms. One could imagine how dire the situation would be if home PV didn't exist. Solar has been much more reliable today than LY4, YPS4, YPS3 and LY2. In Victoria, wind has only run between 30 to 40% of capacity, but it has been eminently reliable and predictable.

A cool change has already swept through most of Greater Melbourne and beyond, easing concerns for the rest of the day. The current wholesale price, while still higher than average, is only a fraction of what it was at this time yesterday.

All true.

To all of you, depending on your bent, spin it any which way.
  kitchgp Chief Commissioner

Why are units taken offline for scheduled maintenance in January and February? If the maintenance is carried out, why are they then breaking down?
  BrentonGolding Chief Commissioner

Location: Maldon Junction
Typical social media nonsense, the same people arguing the same rubbish from whatever personal political point of view guides their thinking.

Meanwhile we have an unreliable electricity supply and people around my area are forced to shut their businesses and lose income because we are load shedded off the grid.

Great effort all, well done, keep talking, posting your propoganda, that will really help us get back our produce, lost income etc etc.

BG
  DirtyBallast Chief Commissioner

Location: I was here first. You're only visiting.
Why are units taken offline for scheduled maintenance in January and February? If the maintenance is carried out, why are they then breaking down?
kitchgp
YPS4 is going through a relatively minor outage and its scheduling would have been locked in months ago assuming that the rest of the system was going to be ok. It's not possible to defer an outage and screw all the subcontractors and suppliers in the process, and potentially force a clash with other planned outages.

LY4 had its major outage recently, starting up a week before Xmas, and it has not stopped since. In fact, it is the unit currently running the hardest at Loy Yang.  Maintenance, done properly, does result in more reliable running, at least in the short term. But it is simply not possible to have a major outage on every unit every year. What's a bet that LY4 will run like a dog next summer...
  RTT_Rules Dr Beeching

Location: Dubai UAE
It's worth noting that RTT thinks that a new base load station shoulda been planned and built in the three month period between the announcement of Hazelwood's closure, and its actual closure. Yeah, right.

Let's look at some actual truths.

Today, during much of the period when SP Ausnet (which distributes to the eastern portion of Vic, including Melbourne's eastern 'burbs) had over 20,000 customers offline mainly (but not exclusively) due to load shedding, electricity was still flowing to NSW from Victoria. Really. This, despite lots of spare capacity available in NSW.

Loy Yang 3 suffered a tube leak in its boiler on Tuesday afternoon. Yallourn 4 is offline for planned maintenance and is due back early next week. Yallourn 3 failed this morning. Loy Yang 2 is struggling at less than 70% capacity at the moment. The 500MW buffer, currently provided by spare gas fired generation, would still have to be maintained even if there was only one coal fired generating unit left in service...in case it broke down.  

The amount of solar electricity generated seen on sites such as electricitymap.org is EXCESS solar placed onto the grid from rooftops, aside from the small amount presently generated from solar farms. One could imagine how dire the situation would be if home PV didn't exist. Solar has been much more reliable today than LY4, YPS4, YPS3 and LY2. In Victoria, wind has only run between 30 to 40% of capacity, but it has been eminently reliable and predictable.

A cool change has already swept through most of Greater Melbourne and beyond, easing concerns for the rest of the day. The current wholesale price, while still higher than average, is only a fraction of what it was at this time yesterday.

All true.

To all of you, depending on your bent, spin it any which way.
DirtyBallast
DB, appreciate you don't make such comments about what I think when you know full well what you are saying is BS. I drive past a coal fired power station under construction every day and worked on sites where they are built for aluminium. For teh record its 2.5 years for the first turbine, + 9mth for each extra turbine.

Some other REAL Truths unlike whats posted above.

Vic has been exporting power all morning in NSW, still doing now. NSW is a net importer of power and has been for over a year, mostly from Qld which is why the whole sale price is 10% higher than Qld.

Wind is only as reliable as the weather and not aligned with demand, hence the 30-40% availability is best matches with hydro output. Today, it didn't produce the goods and the afternoon sea breeze did more for the grid to cool the houses than wind did to power the AC with Vic wind output only rising to ~700MW and being out paced by the loss of solar. Solar at least is mostly aligned with demand and hence why its more useful for the grid.

Appreciate the comments about the issues with the coal power stations. Next time stick to the facts (TRUTH) on the rest and no need for spin!
  wobert Chief Commissioner

Location: Half way between Propodolla and Kinimakatka
I drive past the post office everyday, so
  RTT_Rules Dr Beeching

Location: Dubai UAE
I drive past the post office everyday, so
wobert
...and I bet you still wondering how the mail gets from there to your house faster than you do!

Sponsored advertisement

Subscribers: bevans, RTT_Rules

Display from:   

Quick Reply

We've disabled Quick Reply for this thread as it was last updated more than six months ago.