I still think a minority government is a strong possibility
I would concur with this.
The last 2PP poll I saw was Labor 52 Coalition 48. I think the best interpretation for this poll result at the start of the campaign is too close to call, and the only poll which matters is (still!) the election.
Once things get that tight, it comes down to variations in individual seats rather than a national trend.
You can also add to that the inherent flaws in the headline 2PP polling question - it is based on a uniform swing which never happens in reality, and the majority of people answering treat it as an approve/disapprove question on the incumbent government's performance rather than a real question about voting intentions.
Even the 2PP count from the election itself is flawed. To illustrate this problem, have a look at the 2014 South Australian state election.
The 2PP count in the election was Liberal 53.00 Labor 47.00, but the result in terms of seats won was Liberal 22, Labor 23, Independent 2.
The reason the Liberals lost on the number of seats is that their 53% 2PP win was distributed across winning the 2PP in 24/47 seats (51.1% of the seats, a result which is comfortably explained by local factors) but that Independent candidates were elected in two of the seats where the Liberals won the 2PP.
nobody really wants Billy Bob Shorten as PM, even rusted-on Labor people I know don't like him.
The same applies on the level of individual seats.
Think of examples like Sophie Mirabella who had many of the local Liberal Party members voting against her at the last two elections, or John Schumann giving Alexander Downer a very close call in a blue ribbon seat.