So with future population growth we can look at which lines will need high capacity trains for the future projected load and who needs then now
We can see the lines that will need HCMTs based on this growth and patronage data are the Mernda, Werribee, Cragieburn and Sandringham.
The first two, Mernda and Werribee will eventually run via Metro 2 and there will be a branch to Wollert so that takes care of itself. The Cragieburn Line is the most overcrowded and is growing so it needs HCMTs as well.
Based on statistics
Mernda (proportion of overcrowded services is 46%, will keep going up)
Werribee (proportion of overcrowd services is 47%, will keep going up)
Cragieburn (proportion of overcrowded services is 63%, that will keep going up)
Sandringham (proportion of overcrowded services is 47%)
Two of those lines Sandringham and Cragieburn have had little or no extra services added in quite a few years. This can address the issue and it will in the short term, look at the Frankston Line and the success with 10 Minute turn up and go. However, Peak Hour is crammed and even off peak is crowded on these lines above.
Projected growth:
Pakenham, Sunbury and Cranbourne are getting the HCMTs, possibly Melton as well. We know about Mernda and the growth up there, we know about Werribee and the massive growth in that corridor.
If you look at annual patronage growth the Sandringham and Upfield Lines have the highest, excluding the Metro Tunnel candidates. The latter will obviously get extra services once Duplication and capacity opens up.
So next in line for HCMTs
- Cragieburn
- Werribee and Mernda (Metro 2 perhaps)
- Sandringham (and I can’t believe in saying that)
You seem to have completely side stepped the capacity that will become available on day 1 operations of MM1, Current upgrades that are underway and planned on the network and the rumoured new timetable about to be introduced.
Craigieburn and Upfield will have dedicated use of the Northern Loop, which has a 200 second headway. Allowing a 5 minute frequency to Craigieburn and Upfield (Pending duplication) On the Craigieburn line this represents a doubling in peak hour capacity and even more on the upfield line. No need for HCMT on this line for quite sometime.
Frankston is rumoured to be coming out of the Caulfield loop in April when the new timetable is rolled out. (The sand belt will have to live with it until 2025, when they will have exclusive use of the Caulfield loop.) This will enable a capacity uplift on both the Frankston and Werribee lines until MM1 day 1, with the city loop no longer hindering capacity on the Frankston Line. Once again you could have a 5 minute peak frequency on both these lines that would not interact on rest of the network.
This gives a little breathing room to the Dandenong Group until MM1 Day 1, when Frankston will enjoy a two and half minute peak frequency.
There is nothing stopping the Sandringham Line having a 5/10 frequency now, it is the only line on the metro network that is currently segregated. No need for HCMT's here for a while. MM1 Day 1 this will become the new cross city line.
Clifton Hill rationalisation project was announced last year, this will squeeze more capacity out of this pinch point.
Candidates for the next roll out would be Mernda and Hurstbridge. Testing is being carried out on the new Mernda section in the lead up to MM1, will be simple to continue to roll this out once MM1 is operational. @PIMM the initial HCMTs will fit on the current city loop platforms, Signals have already been repositioned in the Caulfield loop as the drivers cabin will sit forward of the platform.
I don't expect any announcement on the next order of HCMT's until before the 2022 election when half the current order will be in service. You won't see any of these until after the current order is complete in 2025.
Lockie
