2019 Predictions -

 
  nswtrains Chief Commissioner

Tax cuts mean that the average battler will not only afford a trip to Bali or even Thailand but also upgrade their accommodation. Big injection to our Northern neighbours. People will also buy the latest mobile phone, tablet or 8k TVs. More money overseas.

Money should have been spent on infrastructure jobs in the regions.
LOL, good observation. Half of Perth goes to Bali for their school holidays, my friends who live there said almost half their kids primary school class was going to Bali next week - amazing.

If the AUD crashes then it might encourage people to holiday at home again.
don_dunstan
The average punter spends tax cuts on more useless trinkets. The Tax base in Australia is too small to support less tax. I agree infrastructure spending is the way to go. I don't think the AUD will crash as its at about the right level although from an overseas holiday perspective I loved it when our dollar was worth more than the greenback several years back.

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  don_dunstan Minister for Railways

Location: Adelaide proud
I predict that even with the tax cuts the economy will still tank, and in the ensuing crisis they'll be a mini-budget by the end of the year.  Included in which will be an increase in the Medicare levy and big cutbacks in Govt spending...
Carnot
There's somewhat of a negative feedback loop happening with real-estate feeding into the rest of the economy. Lots of sectors of the economy are in diabolical trouble like retail (I've never seen my local Westfield looking so empty and devoid of tenants) and government revenues from income tax and GST are in danger of actually shrinking. All the signs are pointing to a very sudden contraction in the economy yet Frydenburg and ScoMo seem more preoccupied with keeping their (imaginary) surplus.

I noticed the other day that even Andrew Bolt has started calling for immediate action to avoid a recession - when that happens you'd think a Liberal government would finally take notice!
  RTT_Rules Oliver Bullied, CME

Location: Dubai UAE
Tax cuts mean that the average battler will not only afford a trip to Bali or even Thailand but also upgrade their accommodation. Big injection to our Northern neighbours. People will also buy the latest mobile phone, tablet or 8k TVs. More money overseas.

Money should have been spent on infrastructure jobs in the regions.
LOL, good observation. Half of Perth goes to Bali for their school holidays, my friends who live there said almost half their kids primary school class was going to Bali next week - amazing.

If the AUD crashes then it might encourage people to holiday at home again.
The average punter spends tax cuts on more useless trinkets. The Tax base in Australia is too small to support less tax. I agree infrastructure spending is the way to go. I don't think the AUD will crash as its at about the right level although from an overseas holiday perspective I loved it when our dollar was worth more than the greenback several years back.
nswtrains
So between the two of you, you are saying the average Australian middle class and lower doesn't deserve tax cuts because they don't know how or are too stupid to spend it in ways that is right for the economy? Meanwhile Don keeps posting how the lack of pay rises are the end of the Australian economy as we know it.

So what is it?

They either don't need more money in their pocket or they do need more money in their pocket?

If you are saying they cannot spend it in a sensible way, then why not take more money off them as they obviously don't deserve it!

Perhaps then just give the tax cuts to the upper class, at least they will spend it in the economy renovating their home, putting in a pool, buying new toys, investing, all of which generate jobs in some way shape or form.
  RTT_Rules Oliver Bullied, CME

Location: Dubai UAE
I am not being cynical... We should recall what happened to Krudd's $600 ca$h bonus to the battlers during the GFC. Sadly, people will not holiday at home. We have such an amazing country.
ANR
At 68c in the US$, the Australian tourism sector is already seeing some growth. People got used to OS holidays so it will take some time. Mind you if they are still going OS, how bad is the economy?

Krudd's $600 cash hand outs were credited by the faithful and many others as one of the key ingredients that avoided a recession.
  Aaron Minister for Railways

Location: University of Adelaide SA
The drunken sailor was handing out $900 payments, I know, I got three of them!

They did not much for the economy, I just banked mine with the rest of my spare dollars at the time. Most of those monies didn’t benefit Australia at all, most people spent it on OS made goods (especially TVs and other tech) other literally spent it overseas, via eBay/Alibaba etc, and in those days the government didn’t even see the GST back on the spending...

I remember one of my ex study mates bitching about the lack of tax cuts he received. I asked him how much tax he paid - he didn’t really work at the time and his parents supported him through uni. He said he paid ‘just under $1000 for the year, I asked how much he got back ‘all of it’ - how do you come to expect a tax cut when you earn nearly no money and pay no tax? He never did explain that - but he still likely votes Labor, that says about enough.
  ANR Deputy Commissioner

Not saying average low to middle income owner is not spending their tax cut/refund wisely, but saying they will fly to Bali. Qantas and Jet star will need to put on more flights.
  RTT_Rules Oliver Bullied, CME

Location: Dubai UAE
Not saying average low to middle income owner is not spending their tax cut/refund wisely, but saying they will fly to Bali. Qantas and Jet star will need to put on more flights.
ANR
If the average punter is using their tax cut to pay for a flights to Bali etc, then there is nothing wrong with the Australian economy including the impact of power price rises in recent years and lack of salary rises.

Basically if the govt is able to balance the budget and sustain the infrastructure spending plus fund the tax cuts, then things are not too bad.  Note for decades now there is ongoing complaints about tax bracket creep and failure by govts to deal with this, meanwhile as soon as they try and do something then we complain the govt is handing money to the workers who are too irresponsible to mange these few bucks a week. So which is it?
  Groundrelay Chief Commissioner

Location: Surrounded by Trolls!
Note for decades now there is ongoing complaints about tax bracket creep and failure by govts to deal with this, meanwhile as soon as they try and do something then we complain the govt is handing money to the workers who are too irresponsible to mange these few bucks a week. So which is it?
RTT_Rules
This had SFA to do with bracket creep. It's about the only policy the LNP had leading into a tight election. Aaron pointed out how these hand-outs get spent, especially by well off liberal party supporters (as he should know).

There are far better and fairer ways to offload billions if you want to help this economy. For starters raise the tax free threshold, because those on low incomes already pay relatively more in GST and are likely to spend what they get on necessities. Increase Newstart as they are in the same boat. Getting rid of the Medicare gap will also help the working poor, especially in regional areas where bulk billing is limited. If you're well off you don't need the government bankrolling your next indulgence.
  nswtrains Chief Commissioner

I am not being cynical... We should recall what happened to Krudd's $600 ca$h bonus to the battlers during the GFC. Sadly, people will not holiday at home. We have such an amazing country.
At 68c in the US$, the Australian tourism sector is already seeing some growth. People got used to OS holidays so it will take some time. Mind you if they are still going OS, how bad is the economy?

Krudd's $600 cash hand outs were credited by the faithful and many others as one of the key ingredients that avoided a recession.
RTT_Rules
No point arguing with you RTT as you are obviously a neo-liberal boofhead. I don't believe the economy is as bad as some would have you believe and most don't require a tax cut as the revenue should spent on infrastructure and not buying votes. Huge country, low tax base, taxation should be high. I don't see how you can argue otherwise.
  davesvline Chief Commissioner

Location: 1983-1998
GST goes to 20%. Dont ask anyone, just lower a few other taxes, and drop this one on the landscape.

What would it it do for govt coffers IF it happened??


Regards

ps - you jack up the GST, MORE money stays at home.
  justapassenger Chief Commissioner

GST goes to 20%. Dont ask anyone, just lower a few other taxes, and drop this one on the landscape.
davesvline
The policy of the political parties on increasing the GST to 15-20% is bipartisan - both sides want it, but want the other side to do the dirty work for them.

What would it it do for govt coffers IF it happened??
davesvline
No idea, but it would be great for the black economy.
  don_dunstan Minister for Railways

Location: Adelaide proud
GST goes to 20%. Dont ask anyone, just lower a few other taxes, and drop this one on the landscape.

What would it it do for govt coffers IF it happened??


Regards

ps - you jack up the GST, MORE money stays at home.
davesvline
GST is a broad-based tax on all kinds of consumption - therefore the more you consume the more you pay.

It therefore discriminates against people who are either poor or have no income at all (ie dependent children) because regardless of how much you earn or how much you have you still pay the same tax on a basket of goods from the supermarket. It is in no way a progressive tax.

If they doubled the GST they'd have to have some significant compensation for families and people at the very bottom of the income scale. I think JAP is also right in that it would add fuel to the fire in the tax-evasion industry...
  Groundrelay Chief Commissioner

Location: Surrounded by Trolls!
If they doubled the GST they'd have to have some significant compensation for families and people at the very bottom of the income scale. I think JAP is also right in that it would add fuel to the fire in the tax-evasion industry...
don_dunstan
The trouble with compensation is its value tends to diminish over time unless the basis of that compensation rises with prices. It does hurt people whose income does not keep pace with prices.

It also did little to kill the black economy. There's a reason low/no doc loans were popular until recently.
  ANR Deputy Commissioner
  Valvegear Dr Beeching

Location: Norda Fittazroy
It's near enough to the end of the year for us to see how Don fared with his predictions:-


  • RBA cuts rates to below 1% but the real estate crash in Syd/Melb continues unabated. Real estate is doing well in Vic.
  • Labor wins federally in a May election with a thumping 25-seat majority but minor parties and independents also increase. The Senate looks even more chaotic. The Nationals leave the coalition. Not sure who can be opposition leader as it depends on who is left?   No.
  • Shorten will have a very short honeymoon because of the deteriorating economy; won't be long before they're losing polls just like the Liberals and there's rumblings about his inept leadership (yes, it's going to happen all over again!)  No honeymoon as PM, but dumped as Leader.
  • Chris Bowen will announce a quantitative-easing style stimulus policy (if Frydenburg doesn't beat him to it). No.
  • Hard Brexit in Britain but the aftermath won't be nearly as bad as people are expecting. Theresa May dumped by her own party afterwards for failing to get a soft Brexit through. Brexit about to happen. Theresa May dumped.
  • The EU has to hand out more bail-outs to keep Italy, Greece and Spain in the union. No.
  • South Africa gets more like Zimbabwe. A matter of opinion, but I'd say No.
  • Trump reaches a trade deal with China but then withdraws later when the Chinese don't enforce the conditions. ???
  • Trump impeachment moves fail; Geroge Clooney and/or Oprah throw their hats in the ring for 2020. No.
  • China builds more massive gulags to hold all the enemies of the CCP (real and perceived) Who Knows?  They wouldn't advertise it.

and...

  • The Overland is cancelled mid-2019 due to a Victorian government budget emergency. No. It will happen but not for that reason.
  • Sydney Metro trains rear-end each other after opening due to a software fault...No.
  • NT government gets a Commonwealth bail-out but its conditional on sacking half the public service.  No.


A bold lot and good on him for having a go.
  don_dunstan Minister for Railways

Location: Adelaide proud
It's near enough to the end of the year for us to see how Don fared with his predictions:-


  • RBA cuts rates to below 1% but the real estate crash in Syd/Melb continues unabated. Real estate is doing well in Vic.
  • Labor wins federally in a May election with a thumping 25-seat majority but minor parties and independents also increase. The Senate looks even more chaotic. The Nationals leave the coalition. Not sure who can be opposition leader as it depends on who is left?   No.
  • Shorten will have a very short honeymoon because of the deteriorating economy; won't be long before they're losing polls just like the Liberals and there's rumblings about his inept leadership (yes, it's going to happen all over again!)  No honeymoon as PM, but dumped as Leader.
  • Chris Bowen will announce a quantitative-easing style stimulus policy (if Frydenburg doesn't beat him to it). No.
  • Hard Brexit in Britain but the aftermath won't be nearly as bad as people are expecting. Theresa May dumped by her own party afterwards for failing to get a soft Brexit through. Brexit about to happen. Theresa May dumped.
  • The EU has to hand out more bail-outs to keep Italy, Greece and Spain in the union. No.
  • South Africa gets more like Zimbabwe. A matter of opinion, but I'd say No.
  • Trump reaches a trade deal with China but then withdraws later when the Chinese don't enforce the conditions. ???
  • Trump impeachment moves fail; Geroge Clooney and/or Oprah throw their hats in the ring for 2020. No.
  • China builds more massive gulags to hold all the enemies of the CCP (real and perceived) Who Knows?  They wouldn't advertise it.

and...

  • The Overland is cancelled mid-2019 due to a Victorian government budget emergency. No. It will happen but not for that reason.
  • Sydney Metro trains rear-end each other after opening due to a software fault...No.
  • NT government gets a Commonwealth bail-out but its conditional on sacking half the public service.  No.


A bold lot and good on him for having a go.
Valvegear
Interesting, thank-you Mr. Valvegear, I'd forgotten all about this. I started to realise I was totally wrong about Shorten (and Sco Mo) about six weeks before the election. Shorten campaigned dreadfully, he always looked unhappy whereas Sco Mo had all the bounce you'd expect from a tele-evangelist and I guess also an effective scare campaign against Labor's massive spending program having recalled Rudd's stupid program that saw a lot of sheer waste. Mind you none of the policy settings have changed since their re-election.

And hey, I was a hundred percent right about official RBA rates going below 1% (0.75%) but as it happens that was all it took for Sydney and Melbourne to erase all the losses of the last few years. But the rest of the nation hasn't followed, Perth in particular is still moribund with a 7% overall capital loss this year. Very much a two-speed nation as far as real-estate is concerned.

Would anyone care to have a stab @ 2020, I'd have to have a think for a few weeks before I could come out with more half-buttock predictions.
  michaelgm Chief Commissioner

One for 2020. Should wait until MYEFO is released but, Australia enters recession.
Cause will be "global headwinds"
  wobert Chief Commissioner

Location: Half way between Propodolla and Kinimakatka
Increase immigration, that'll keep us out of recession for another 12 months, dunno what their going to drink though.
  Big J Deputy Commissioner

Location: In Paradise
It's near enough to the end of the year for us to see how Don fared with his predictions:-
  • South Africa gets more like Zimbabwe. A matter of opinion, but I'd say No.

A bold lot and good on him for having a go.
Valvegear
Maybe a matter of opinion, not sure of your No though. SAA has hit the wall as well as other government businesses such as power companies would be bankrupt if they were not state businesses.

Also the removal of white farmers without compensation is very much the Zimbabwe model and is happening.

So my view he was actually right and it is a Yes.
  Big J Deputy Commissioner

Location: In Paradise
It's near enough to the end of the year for us to see how Don fared with his predictions:-
  • South Africa gets more like Zimbabwe. A matter of opinion, but I'd say No.

A bold lot and good on him for having a go.
Maybe a matter of opinion, not sure of your No though. SAA has hit the wall as well as other government businesses such as power companies would be bankrupt if they were not state businesses.

Also the removal of farmers without compensation is very much the Zimbabwe model and is happening.

So my view he was actually right and it is a Yes.
  justapassenger Chief Commissioner

  • Hard Brexit in Britain but the aftermath won't be nearly as bad as people are expecting. Theresa May dumped by her own party afterwards for failing to get a soft Brexit through. Brexit about to happen. Theresa May dumped.
Valvegear
It's a No so far as Brexit goes, because that's not going to happen before the 2019 predictions expire in a couple of weeks.

It's still up in the air as to whether it will happen on January 31 or any other time in 2020. Bozo says he's going to do it, but he had his fingers crossed the first time he said that (for the October 31 deadline) and nobody bothered to check if he did so the second time. Keep in mind he is one of the few current MPs in Britain to have previously suffered professional consequences for lying.

  • Trump reaches a trade deal with China but then withdraws later when the Chinese don't enforce the conditions. ???
Valvegear
I'd call that one a No. Trump has been defeated by China and raised a white flag, definitely not the same thing as reaching a deal.


As for my predictions, there are a bunch of Yes results…
I predict:
- certain Victorian-based members of this forum continue to make way more than their fair share of spelling mistakes
- freightgate continues to have the highest ratio of opening posts to discussion posts
- Dangersdan707 continues to post ridiculous foam about broad gauge when he should be studying
- no resolution is made to the continued downward slide of the News forum
- nobody understands any of Myrtone's points any better at the end of the year than they do at the start
justapassenger
Good luck with your end of year report Dan.

- the MetroMSTS Project forum will still have zero posts at the end of the year
justapassenger
50 weeks of MetroMSTS Project forum having the same amount of progress as Brexit means this one is still a potential Yes.

- discussion about funding the Overland will continue longer than the Overland itself
justapassenger
This one looks like being a Yes, so long as someone make a post after 5:40pm on the 31st. The most spectacular way to have this one fail would be for the Overland to be six and a half hours late into Adelaide so it is still running when the prediction times out!
  don_dunstan Minister for Railways

Location: Adelaide proud
It's near enough to the end of the year for us to see how Don fared with his predictions:-
  • South Africa gets more like Zimbabwe. A matter of opinion, but I'd say No.

A bold lot and good on him for having a go.
Maybe a matter of opinion, not sure of your No though. SAA has hit the wall as well as other government businesses such as power companies would be bankrupt if they were not state businesses.

Also the removal of farmers without compensation is very much the Zimbabwe model and is happening.

So my view he was actually right and it is a Yes.
Big J
Everyone has forgotten about South Africa because it's black-on-black oppression as opposed to the much more morally outrageous white-on-black oppression.

But thing have been getting much worse there in just the last 12 months - rolling power outages, towns running out of water, poverty getting even worse. The ANC are the problem; their wholesale looting of South Africa's huge mineral wealth for their own enrichment is turning the place into a failed state. Look at Jacob Zuma, robbed the government of South Africa blind lining his own pockets and that of his family and yet got off scott-free.

EDIT: The current electricity crisis in South Africa discussed further here. How on earth does that happen in country with so many resources like Australia? It's a terrible shame that corruption has kept the black majority mired in poverty - South Africa has so much mineral wealth and developed infrastructure it should have been powering half of Africa by now.
  Aaron Minister for Railways

Location: University of Adelaide SA
Don, if only you wrote ‘Light Rail’ instead of ‘Metro Trains’ you would have nearly nailed it.

I was hoping it would go a little longer before this thread was recalled, I have had a reminder set in my phone for most of the year about the MSTS thread, just for JAP.

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