Umm I am driving to Armidale in NSW from Mackay Qld and return. You are welcome to look up google maps.
Many people in the regions do this. While I agree that the regions are the minority and the majority are urban. But even urbanites like to drive out to see family.
I guess the not owning a car model will be the way forward, but I can't see that really being entrenched until around 2030. At the moment people love the option of convenience, even if they don't use. For example this is why many people have Prados. Because one day they think they will really go for a camping trip, even though in reality they never do. It is a choice.
So I am still of the view diesels will still sell strongly for another 5 years, hence Hilux and Ranger dominating the Australian market. There is no rush to change our emission laws on vehicles, not while the current government is in place.
Then fuel/hybrid will dominate. Eg the recent Hilux announcement and the RAV4 hybrid going gang busters.
Then EV as the range/value proposition will be palatable. That will be around 10 years.
I look forward to EV. But it wont be the dominate market till then. They will firstly erode the upper end vehicle market that stay on tarmac.
Your point of the EV F150 is great, but F150 are not bought by families that spend $50k on a ute or a SUV. It is out of reach. They will attract that stupid luxury car tax and will put them over $100k. ABS holders will buy them, but the majority won't.
I don't disagree EVs will dominate, but I put money it will be the late 2020s/ early 2030s for Australia, unless the government does a Norway. I doubt the current Government will do anything of the sort as the Surplus must be protected at any cost and they do not believe that currently there is an issue with air pollution that warrants intervention to change our economy.
Diesel is the dead man walking, don't expect this to be an option post 2025 for most cars and many 4x4's and it won't be the Australian govt dictating this. The recent fiasco's with both Toyota and VW show the challenges facing the diesel engine manufacturers. Look back over the last 10-15 years a number of diesel engines have disappeared due to emission issues and if I recall the Ranger 3.2 in my car is one of the next, ironically being replaced by the VW V6. I was in China last year, nearly all heavy trucks were running on LNG, so China is very much on the way of weening itself off diesel.
I would have thought Hybrid's would be doing much better globally, yet the % of HEV in the global market appears to have plateaued around 2.5% or what ever the number for some time. The growth is very much in EV. I suspect as distance range and model range have improved, many potential HEV buyers have gone full EV. Australia (again) was drip fed HEV models for a number of years and you have only got a taste of what Toyota has been offering others for some years. In Dubai taxi's were being converted to HEV a few years back, but the luxury Lexus taxi's have been slowly replaced by Model X and S taxi's. Again in China last year, Tianjuan I think, nearly all taxi's were basically an electric EV SUV, local brand. Most Chinese motor bikes are EV, we visited 6 cities, it was consistent. Charging stations were under fly-overs next to toilets and food stalls.
F150 class is on the rise in Oz, I noticed this last year the amount of averts surprised me. In the USA the base model to mid model market is US$ 29k to US$ 45k, so shouldn't be in luxury market unless you want the bigger models such as Raptor. I believe the EV's have a higher threshold to the luxury tax in Oz.
I would be the first to protest against a subsidy for EV's, there is no need for it and yo are opening a can of worms as when do you stop?
EV's will take their own place in the market with expansion of model diversity, range, charging stations and loss of range anxiety . The UAE has no subsidy's or incentive's for EV's, yet the things are growing rapidly in popularity. We had heard the dealers were avoiding bring them in due to the reduced revenues from maintenance contracts, hence most are Telsa's with some Bolt's. However it would appear a quiet word by the govt has resolved this and there a number of models coming next year. The UAE govt has very ambitious EV as well as Autonomous vehicle targets by 2030 as part of their RE target strategy.
I've lived in regional Australia for most of my Adult life, I can say with full confidence driving 3000km return trips is not that common, although I know some that do it. We did it on average about once in every 3-4 years. Mackay to Armidale is 14+ hours, if there was an overnight stop you'd have only need for a martial mid day charge, easily done having a meal/pee break. If done in a single day trip, you need 2 recharges to 80% or 3 partial recharges. Again easily sloted into meal breaks and other without adding much extra time if any.