Let's start with predictions for 2020:
- Interest rates was the one thing I got right this year, down to a record post-war low 0.75% official RBA setting. That set a huge explosion off under the Melbourne and Sydney residential property markets and they've subsequently (in 9 months) completely erased the losses they made in the previous two years. That tells you 1/ It's a very volatile market. 2/ It's highly dependent on favorable government policy particularly very low interest rate settings.
- I've got an inkling the RBA will cut at least one more time but given the cuts have exclusively benefited the big two cities real estate markets (and nothing else) they may feel there's nothing more they can do with that rather blunt interest rate policy.
- I have no clue at all who the Democrats will run with against Trump, I guess it depends on how the impeachment goes. I don't think it will be Hillary and I also don't think it will be Joe Biden. I'm going to go out on a limb here and say Trump will be re-elected President in November.
- ScoMo and Josh will have to find ways to stimulate the economy other than the $1050 tax cut they gave Australia this year; retail in particular is feeling the pinch. Aussies aren't spending, I don't think this will change and the signs are pointing to recession ie GST take falling dramatically, car sales down 10% year-on-year. Can ScoMo and Josh pull something out of the hat?
- Everyone forgets that ScoMo is only a few by-elections away from a no-confidence motion (or maybe even some people defect to the cross-benches?). The Federal LNP probably has their own share of Aldi bags stuffed with cash, maybe that will come out this year!
- I'm hoping we have lots of rain in 2020 but its up to Barnaby Joyce's invisible sky fairy.
- Personally I'm going to resolve to have more fun and stop and smell the roses.
Books-wise I've found an op shop book about Julia Gillard's disastrous political rein re-invented to blame the Rudd/Carr factions called The Stalking of Julia Gillard by Kerry-Anne Walsh (2014), can't wait to read all about how Julia was a victim of someone else's vendetta and not her own spendthrift incompetence.
Also someone with a sense of humor gave me Bob Carr's Diary of a Foreign Minister, also from 2014. I opened it to a random page and it said (no joke):
Any time with Hillary is like champagne, pure quality... (p.215)
Yuck, get a room you two! I can't wait be lectured on from the pulpit by him on why the world should be like he wants it, reading that book will fill me joy...