It's the economy, stupid!

 
  don_dunstan The Ghost of George Stephenson

Location: Adelaide proud
- you're pretty much the only person on this board who can't see that.
That may or may not be true but what is unambiguously clear is that there seems to be only a couple of active players left on this thread. I wonder why that is. Even the simple entertainment value of endless grandstanding wears thin after a while!

Steve
sydneyshortnorth
Well we both have strong opinions and neither of us will be moved. I'm really tired of it too but as long as he keeps answering I feel obliged to respond.

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  don_dunstan The Ghost of George Stephenson

Location: Adelaide proud
Good one Don,
you just demonstrated that your entire input to this debate is completely null and void and you have again demonstrated you clueless to what the submarine project is all about, who actually bid, what the price was and more to the point, who can actually supply a diesel submarine.
RTT_Rules
I understand exactly what it was about: It was a hybrid welfare program/pork barrel and defense consultancy feed trough.

And as I was just discussing with GroundRelay - the answer is: DON'T BUY ANY. Invest the $100,000,000,000 in some other more modern defense capability. Problem solved.
In addition you are completely clueless on why the longterm Australian strategic defense requirements started planning the replacement of the existing Sub fleet more than a decade ago, long before the demise of the car industry and any other welfare needs to save the South Australian economy from achieving irrelevancy in the national economy.
RTT_Rules
Seriously, 700-odd jobs at Osborne is going to save the South Australian economy from irrelevancy?
Just for you Don and again for the 10,000,000th time, no American supplier bid on the project, maybe actually read one of your own links because that's how I found out who the bidders were. Why, because no American supplier makes diesel submarines nor are the nuclear models they do make for sale internationally due to restrictions put in place by the US govt regarding nuclear hardware.
RTT_Rules
We're in ANZUS. We're part of the five eyes network. Of course they'd lease us a nuclear sub.
Even the Canadian's are or are considering buying the same model sub as Australia from the French for all mostly the same reasons Australia did.
RTT_Rules
Because they're too whimpy to buy nuclear? Good to know we have an equivalent government frightened of nuclear subs.
Finally Don, you have proved you are done here.
RTT_Rules
Not by a long shot, sunshine. As long as you want to keep arguing I'll keep pointing out that you don't know what you're talking about. You don't even understand the parameters of the project, you can't distinguish between your opinion and fact and yet you think you're an expert on it? Please.
  sydneyshortnorth Train Controller

Location: On the 1 in 40.
See my post at 7:44pm today.

I'm tempted to dob in this thread and its persistently arguing participants before they become more abusive than they already are. In the meantime can I politely suggest you take your personal issues off-line and stop trashing your reputations on here!

Steve
  don_dunstan The Ghost of George Stephenson

Location: Adelaide proud
See my post at 7:44pm today.

I'm tempted to dob in this thread and its persistently arguing participants before they become more abusive than they already are. In the meantime can I politely suggest you take your personal issues off-line and stop trashing your reputations on here!

Steve
sydneyshortnorth
What reputation - the one that I have for being a relentless stirrer?

I'm pretty sure that David is aware of what's going on here but he's not that concerned. I'd rather be talking about the present state of the economy too but RTT_Rules wants to keep talking about the futility of the Attack Class Submarines project so that's what we're discussing here.

Nobody responded to my post about the price of gold and silver, the state of the AU$ etc. Feel free to contribute by all means, it would be a welcome distraction from the Attack Class Project.
  RTT_Rules Oliver Bullied, CME

Location: Dubai UAE
See my post at 7:44pm today.

I'm tempted to dob in this thread and its persistently arguing participants before they become more abusive than they already are. In the meantime can I politely suggest you take your personal issues off-line and stop trashing your reputations on here!

Steve
What reputation - the one that I have for being a relentless stirrer?

I'm pretty sure that David is aware of what's going on here but he's not that concerned. I'd rather be talking about the present state of the economy too but RTT_Rules wants to keep talking about the futility of the Attack Class Submarines project so that's what we're discussing here.

Nobody responded to my post about the price of gold and silver, the state of the AU$ etc. Feel free to contribute by all means, it would be a welcome distraction from the Attack Class Project.
don_dunstan
The Gold price is going up because the world is increasingly becoming less economically stable.

Silver, mmm, not used in photos anymore.

Platinum and Palladium are the fast moving metals overtaking the yellow metal.

Aussie $ is headed south because of the declining state of the global economy and commodity prices.

I've stated previously for Don to stop wasting forum space and go off line and there was an outcry by others not too.

Don has not said anything to me that I take offensive and I hope my posts are the same. If I thought he or anyone else did, I would abandon this thread for a period of time like I have in the past, no need to escalate it to others.  I have a friend who keeps nagging me to go to Adelaide for a visit, I'd go there and buy Don a beer if he'd promise not to throw it back at me.

Meanwhile the Don thinks the US will lease us a nuclear submarine, what next, they will lease us an F-22?
  don_dunstan The Ghost of George Stephenson

Location: Adelaide proud
Caulfield Grammar shows everyone the sheer power of the Chinese Communist Party to influence in this country; they have refused to name their new flash $25,000,000 Olympic swimming pool after their alumnus Mack Horton (the school's first Olympic champion) because they're terrified that it will affect their business relationship with China. From Fairfax:



A plan to name the state-of-the-art centre after Horton, the school’s first Olympic champion, was quietly ditched late last year in response to the public fall-out from Horton’s refusal to share a medals dais at the FINA World Championships with Sun Yang, one of China’s most-celebrated athletes.

Sources familiar with the matter say that prior to Horton’s decision to snub Sun Yang on the podium, the school intended to name the pool in his honour.

He was also subjected to a virulent reaction from supporters of Sun Yang, who targeted Horton, his family, his girlfriend and any businesses, sponsors or institutions associated with him with abuse. His family home was vandalised…

Caulfield Grammar was the first Australian school to open a campus in mainland China.

At the school’s secondary campus in Wheelers Hill, a suburb in Melbourne’s east where one in six residents were Chinese at the time of the most recent census, Chinese children make up a large percentage of the student body.

Pathetic, so frightened of offending the Communist Party that they can't even honour their first Olympic swimming champion. I guess that's the state of our country now-days isn't it... don't speak the truth or you might offend our patron.
  don_dunstan The Ghost of George Stephenson

Location: Adelaide proud
The Aussie dollar has lost nearly a whole cent over the weekend to trade at $US0.65.9 this morning, a new 11-year low. It's since recovered slightly but it looks like the only way is down - given this it seems unlikely that the RBA will cut interest rates again but who knows. We've also had $48 billion wiped off the value of the ASX this morning - being put down to the containment of the COVID-19 virus failing.

As an aside, there's some interesting news here in South Australia that pawnbroking jewellers are putting 'pop up shops' inside large pokies venues in Adelaide to help out those people who need to sell their jewelry on the spot to keep gambling. How considerate of them!
  RedEyeExpress Junior Train Controller

Location: Melbourne
Speaking of the economy, the Victorian government has proposed a new federal tax or a Medicare levy hike to pay for mental health reform: https://www.smh.com.au/national/raise-the-medicare-levy-to-pay-for-mental-health-says-victoria-20200223-p543is.html
  don_dunstan The Ghost of George Stephenson

Location: Adelaide proud
Speaking of the economy, the Victorian government has proposed a new federal tax or a Medicare levy hike to pay for mental health reform: https://www.smh.com.au/national/raise-the-medicare-levy-to-pay-for-mental-health-says-victoria-20200223-p543is.html
RedEyeExpress
I don't like their chances in the current environment.

Meanwhile the University of Melbourne gets DESPERATE and offers Chinese students $7,500 fee reimbursements if they can make it to Australia to start their course - sometime soon. The Guardian:

The University of Melbourne has offered to reimburse expenses related to forfeited flights, accommodation and remote study workarounds by those students who have been affected by the Australian government’s continuing ban on entry to foreign nationals who have travelled through mainland China.

The ban has been in force since 1 February and extended twice. It is due to expire on 29 February but is being reviewed weekly. Australian citizens and permanent residents are exempt from the ban.

The University of Melbourne is the third Australian university to offer financial assistance to stranded students.

The University of Adelaide emailed its affected students last week to offer “care packages” including discounted fees and a financial contribution towards air fares of up to $2,000. It also offered to completely refund semester fees to any student who couldn’t make it onto campus by the end of semester due to the outbreak.

I think given the unconstrained nature of the COVID-19 outbreak I don't think there's going to be any relaxation of the travel rules any time soon... shouldn't have become so dependent on one single cohort of visa-buyers, should they.
  RTT_Rules Oliver Bullied, CME

Location: Dubai UAE
The Aussie dollar has lost nearly a whole cent over the weekend to trade at $US0.65.9 this morning, a new 11-year low. It's since recovered slightly but it looks like the only way is down - given this it seems unlikely that the RBA will cut interest rates again but who knows. We've also had $48 billion wiped off the value of the ASX this morning - being put down to the containment of the COVID-19 virus failing.

As an aside, there's some interesting news here in South Australia that pawnbroking jewellers are putting 'pop up shops' inside large pokies venues in Adelaide to help out those people who need to sell their jewelry on the spot to keep gambling. How considerate of them!
don_dunstan
For what its worth, the forecast is headed south to the sub 60c range by 2022.

https://longforecast.com/australian-dollar-aud-to-usd-forecast-2017-2018-2019-2020-2021

...and I think it will be good for the economy as it was previously.

For example power prices are now back to around $55/MW thats US$43/MW which is getting on the verge of cheap. The Australian Aluminium smelters will be enjoying the decreasing power price in USD terms to off-set a reduction in metal price.

Disclaimer: I have a vested interest in seeing the dollar going down.
  don_dunstan The Ghost of George Stephenson

Location: Adelaide proud
Aussie dollar falls again to US$065.4 after the share market has another nightmare day.

Things are looking much worse in Asia with many businesses unable to continue operating with the COVID-19 virus still restricting travel. Cathy Pacific had already asked 33,000 staff to take three weeks holidays but has now had to ask 25,000 staff to take unpaid leave - Bloomberg:

Most office staff have taken up the offer, but the acceptance rate is lower for pilots and cabin crew, according to a person familiar with the plans. Pilots are the most expensive employees for Cathay, said the person, who asked not to be identified discussing internal matters. Cathay has already slashed capacity as the spread of the virus weighs on travel demand. The outbreak is a further challenge after protests in Hong Kong weighed on the company’s performance in the second half of 2019. Cathay warned last week that results in the first six months of this year will be “significantly down” from a year earlier.

There's another interest rate decision due next week from the RBA on Tuesday 3/3 - it'll be interesting to see if they cut or hold given the diabolical conditions emerging, although any cut will weigh even more heavily on the falling Aussie dollar.
  don_dunstan The Ghost of George Stephenson

Location: Adelaide proud
Rio Tinto in talks with the NSW and QLD governments to continue their aluminium smelting in Australia but its looking more and more likely that bauxite processing will have to move overseas: Nine News.

That's another 2,500 jobs that will be added to the funeral pyre of Australian manufacturing.
  don_dunstan The Ghost of George Stephenson

Location: Adelaide proud
Looks like the Commonwealth government's war on cash is set for a major victory with the Labor Party to combine with the LNP to pass the "$10,000 cash ban" laws - Fairfax/Nine:

A controversial bill to ban cash payments over $10,000 and impose two-year jail sentences on those caught using cash above that limit is poised to pass Federal Parliament despite bitter divisions within both major parties.

The Morrison government is set to win support from Labor to legislate the controversial crackdown, which is likely to be opposed by the entire Senate crossbench from the Greens to One Nation.

The proposal has been criticised by tradespeople, pensioners and some ethnic communities, with government MPs reporting a fierce backlash from within their own branches over the laws.

Some Labor MPs have also expressed reservations over the laws, aimed at cracking down on crime syndicates that launder money through the black-market economy, however the opposition will likely vote in favour of the laws when a Senate committee inquiry hands down a recommendation that the bill be supported on Friday...

...A video recording of Mr Frydenberg being asked about the cash ban at a Liberal Party function in Brisbane last week shows the Treasurer pressed on what the government hoped to achieve from the move.

He said the government was acting on recommendations of its own back economy task force.

"This was really to go to the heart of the issue of ensuring there's less of a black economy and more of an economy sticking to the right rules," he said.

The real intention of this bill is to criminalise the holding and hoarding of cash so that in the future people will have no other option but to put their money into the Australian banking system ensuring that everyone is bailed in. If negative interest rates eventuate (and its looking more and more likely given the economic situation) then there is no option for anyone with savings but to pay to keep their money in the bank as the government and the Big Four desire.

Crazy times when savers are punished in this manner - and I can't believe that it's a Liberal government putting this law in.
  RedEyeExpress Junior Train Controller

Location: Melbourne
Two-year jail sentences!?
  RTT_Rules Oliver Bullied, CME

Location: Dubai UAE
Rio Tinto in talks with the NSW and QLD governments to continue their aluminium smelting in Australia but its looking more and more likely that bauxite processing will have to move overseas: Nine News.

That's another 2,500 jobs that will be added to the funeral pyre of Australian manufacturing.
don_dunstan
The link doesn't work.
  don_dunstan The Ghost of George Stephenson

Location: Adelaide proud
Rio Tinto in talks with the NSW and QLD governments to continue their aluminium smelting in Australia but its looking more and more likely that bauxite processing will have to move overseas: Nine News.

That's another 2,500 jobs that will be added to the funeral pyre of Australian manufacturing.
The link doesn't work.
RTT_Rules
Can't be bothered looking for it now but it was a story about how it's unlikely that the NSW and QLD governments were to renew the special prices given to Tomago et al. Tomago has also complained that if any more coal-fired capacity goes that they won't be able to operate with certainty because of the extreme variability of renewable supply.

But I guess we'll see in due course.
  don_dunstan The Ghost of George Stephenson

Location: Adelaide proud
Two-year jail sentences!?
RedEyeExpress
Ridiculous. We had an old family friend come and stay with us around Australia Day whose car got written off in early December where he lives on Kangaroo Island - nothing to do with the fires, he actually hit a roo, wrote off his ute and came over to the mainland to get himself another car.

Anyway he's very old school and insisted on paying for his 'new' (second-hand) car with cash that he bought with him from the island - but under the new laws the transaction would be completely illegal. As it turned out the Adelaide dealer we ended up buying from gave him a good deal (a pre-paid petrol card) for slapping the cash right there on the table.

This law is total and utter stupidity. Not everyone who pays cash in large amounts is a criminal, they just prefer to do things that way, that's all - and it helped to get a reasonable discount from the dealer.

I'm planning to write to my local Commonwealth MP complaining about this arcane and regressive law, and I almost never do that kind of thing.
  michaelgm Chief Commissioner

Two-year jail sentences!?
Ridiculous. We had an old family friend come and stay with us around Australia Day whose car got written off in early December where he lives on Kangaroo Island - nothing to do with the fires, he actually hit a roo, wrote off his ute and came over to the mainland to get himself another car.

Anyway he's very old school and insisted on paying for his 'new' (second-hand) car with cash that he bought with him from the island - but under the new laws the transaction would be completely illegal. As it turned out the Adelaide dealer we ended up buying from gave him a good deal (a pre-paid petrol card) for slapping the cash right there on the table.

This law is total and utter stupidity. Not everyone who pays cash in large amounts is a criminal, they just prefer to do things that way, that's all - and it helped to get a reasonable discount from the dealer.

I'm planning to write to my local Commonwealth MP complaining about this arcane and regressive law, and I almost never do that kind of thing.
don_dunstan
Agree, Don. 100%
It’s my money I’ll do with it what I choose.
  BrentonGolding Chief Commissioner

Location: Maldon Junction
The proposal has been criticised by tradespeople, pensioners and some ethnic communities, with government MPs reporting

Crazy times when savers are punished in this manner - and I can't believe that it's a Liberal government putting this law in.
don_dunstan
Yep, I have out-laws who immigrated from a country where you couldn't trust the government or the banks to still be there when you woke up in the morning and cash is still king with many of them. They are mainly (almost exclusively) labour voters and will not be happy with the ALP backing this bill.

Funny enough some of these are the same groups of people who were against the same-sex marriage bill, another example of the ALP losing touch with it's base?
  michaelgm Chief Commissioner

Rio Tinto in talks with the NSW and QLD governments to continue their aluminium smelting in Australia but its looking more and more likely that bauxite processing will have to move overseas: Nine News.

That's another 2,500 jobs that will be added to the funeral pyre of Australian manufacturing.
The link doesn't work.
Can't be bothered looking for it now but it was a story about how it's unlikely that the NSW and QLD governments were to renew the special prices given to Tomago et al. Tomago has also complained that if any more coal-fired capacity goes that they won't be able to operate with certainty because of the extreme variability of renewable supply.

But I guess we'll see in due course.
don_dunstan
The news article referenced Qld, Tomago, Tas/Boyne? And a site in NZ.
  don_dunstan The Ghost of George Stephenson

Location: Adelaide proud
Australia's gross debt has exploded under the LNP and shows no signs of slowing down; the Coalition government have now added a gross $294,000,000,000 to Australia's total debt since 2013. They have now added 52% to Australia's gross foreign debt since assuming office. Independent Australia:

TREASURER JOSH FRYDENBERG has just increased both Federal gross debt and net debt to new all-time records.

This was revealed by Treasury and the Finance Department last Friday – just two days after Prime Minister Scott Morrison told the National Press Club that “going into 2020 the fundamentals of our economy are strong and in good shape”.

That speech was delivered just six weeks after Frydenberg announced to the world that “the Government is living within its means, paying down Labor's debt"...

...Gross debt plumbed the new depth of $568.1 billion last Friday. That is $33.7 billion deeper than when Frydenberg bragged in his April Budget speech about “climbing the mountain” and reaching “our goal of eliminating Commonwealth net debt by 2030 or sooner".

It is up a staggering $296.4 billion since the Coalition came to office with the solemn promise to reduce what it decried as Labor’s "debt timebomb".

Of all gross debt added by all governments since 1854, the Coalition has now added 52.17%.

There's no truth whatsoever to the meme that the Coalition are better economic managers: They're not. The last seven years has seen Australia's debt more than double and its showing no signs of slowing down; we are NOT in a good position to weather any coming economic storm - not without diving into even more diabolical levels of debt.
  don_dunstan The Ghost of George Stephenson

Location: Adelaide proud
Rio Tinto in talks with the NSW and QLD governments to continue their aluminium smelting in Australia but its looking more and more likely that bauxite processing will have to move overseas: Nine News.

That's another 2,500 jobs that will be added to the funeral pyre of Australian manufacturing.
The link doesn't work.
Can't be bothered looking for it now but it was a story about how it's unlikely that the NSW and QLD governments were to renew the special prices given to Tomago et al. Tomago has also complained that if any more coal-fired capacity goes that they won't be able to operate with certainty because of the extreme variability of renewable supply.

But I guess we'll see in due course.
The news article referenced Qld, Tomago, Tas/Boyne? And a site in NZ.
michaelgm
So it's all the smelters in Australia bar Portland which is Alcoa - I'm sure RTT_Rules will be along to correct us if I'm wrong.
  michaelgm Chief Commissioner

Rio Tinto in talks with the NSW and QLD governments to continue their aluminium smelting in Australia but its looking more and more likely that bauxite processing will have to move overseas: Nine News.

That's another 2,500 jobs that will be added to the funeral pyre of Australian manufacturing.
The link doesn't work.
Can't be bothered looking for it now but it was a story about how it's unlikely that the NSW and QLD governments were to renew the special prices given to Tomago et al. Tomago has also complained that if any more coal-fired capacity goes that they won't be able to operate with certainty because of the extreme variability of renewable supply.

But I guess we'll see in due course.
The news article referenced Qld, Tomago, Tas/Boyne? And a site in NZ.
So it's all the smelters in Australia bar Portland which is Alcoa - I'm sure RTT_Rules will be along to correct us if I'm wrong.
don_dunstan
Owned by Rio.
Interesting if scummo and fraudenberg are willing to engage, in an attempt to save the furniture. Subsidies, anyone?
  don_dunstan The Ghost of George Stephenson

Location: Adelaide proud
So it's all the smelters in Australia bar Portland which is Alcoa - I'm sure RTT_Rules will be along to correct us if I'm wrong.
Owned by Rio.
Interesting if scummo and fraudenberg are willing to engage, in an attempt to save the furniture. Subsidies, anyone?
michaelgm
They'll probably let it all go off-shore; the Commonwealth credit card is running white-hot at the moment as we've just discussed and revenues from mining royalties, income tax etc are all set to shrink with our reliance on China coming back to bite us. Frydenburg is adding about $30,000,000,000 p/a to the current debt load so realistically that's how much needs to be cut from the annual Commonwealth budget of $500 billion before a realistic 'break even' can be achieved. Don't believe any claims of the budget being in surplus, the reality is that we're in more debt than ever before.

I just don't see a future for any kind of heavy industry here; there's no such thing as strategic redundancy any more - it's not a consideration. They don't care if we don't make anything here any longer because if it can't compete with Asia then frankly they don't want it here - it's peak economic rationalism. Witness the closure of most of our oil refining capacity - if something happened to the international shipping lanes and we couldn't get petrol from Singapore any longer then we'd be out of fuel within 30 days.
  don_dunstan The Ghost of George Stephenson

Location: Adelaide proud
China is desperately trying to pretend that everything is under control and that the economy has returned to normal in the only way that communists know how: By ordering closed factories to consume electricity so they can pretend they're working - ZeroHedge:

[We] now learn that a "Wenzhou-based factory owner tells how district officials are telling him his closed factory (he has no workers) must turn on the machines and consume electricity or he’ll get “a visit”. "

Why must the owner of the empty factory pretend the factory is operating? Because "Higher ups are watching the electricity numbers." And why are higher ups watching the electricity numbers? Because they know that not only the rest of the world is also watching these numbers, but so is China's population. And absent a rebound in electricity usage, even if it is to power unused machines in empty factories, China can't hold out hope to pretend that February was the kitchen sink month as the level of economic activity simply will not rise for months... unless of course Beijing orders the local population to simply consume for the sake of giving the outside world it is consuming as if things were back to normal.

Only they aren't, and instead of Chinese ghost towns, we now have Chinese ghost factories whose only purpose is to try to fool its population and the world that the coronavirus pandemic, which is still raging in China, is under control and the Chinese economy is back on solid footing. Of course, neither is actually happening. And in further proof that China is now openly manipulating those same "alternative", high-frequency data, we get another account according to which a factory manager was told he must consume 3000 kWh electricity by midnight, as authorities use electricity usage as a criterion of re-open rate. Even the factory has not re-opened for lack of supply and manpower due to COVID2019, the manager had to switch on all the air conditioners and other equipment to ensure they achieve the quota.

China's rank incompetence in dealing with this situation is just a symptom of their inflexible and secretive central government desperately trying to manage the situation while the reality is that the whole country is still in lock-down. Pretending that things are back to normal by switching on lights and air-conditioners is just an artefact of the absurd Orwellian system they live under where the truth is what the party says it is.

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