The Aussie politics thread -

 
  ANR Deputy Commissioner

Here's an article that talks about the pay wall article on Alex Hawke. It alleges branch stacking but by excluding new membership, not fake additions (like what were revealed in Vic from the ALP recently).

https://www.skynews.com.au/details/_6169405002001

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  justapassenger Minister for Railways

The other one going around is that Cormann could be headed for the top job at the OECD.
Depressing that Australia couldn't supply the OECD with anyone other than the Minister for Finance from the least fiscally responsible government in the nation's history (i.e. the drunken sailor himself).

I hope that's just a mischievous rumour without merit.
  don_dunstan The Ghost of George Stephenson

Location: Adelaide proud
Newspoll says that the two-party preferred has slumped to its worst result for the Labor Party post-2019 election at 47/53; the Liberal Party are now clearly pulling out in front of the ALP.

Even worse for Labor is the news that Scotty's approval rating is a whopping 59% while Albo (who?) has sunk to 26%.

The ALP needs to take stock of why they've become so irrelevant to mainstream Australia and try to work out how they're going to reconnect with those people - we're almost halfway through the election cycle and time is ticking away.
  don_dunstan The Ghost of George Stephenson

Location: Adelaide proud
There's some disquiet in the ALP about the current set of policies not appealing to middle Australia. From the Weekend Australian:

A growing number of Labor MPs are urging Anthony Albanese to adopt the Coalition’s 2030 emissions reduction targets, with one warning the party may never win another election unless it takes a more moderate position on ­climate change.

Amid concerns Labor needs to broaden its appeal, senators Alex Gallacher and Glenn Sterle have backed resources spokesman Joel Fitzgibbon’s calls to adopt the government’s ­medium-term target to lower emissions by 26-28 per cent of 2005 levels by 2030.
"If we don’t accept that, we may never get back into government,” Senator Gallacher told The Weekend Australian.

“The reality is, we are going to have a deficit that you can’t jump over. We can’t constrain our economy in terms of what some of the people on the Left want to do. Just do it and move on.

“It may tear the heart out of some of the people in the conservation world but really it isn’t going to tear the heart out of the electorate. And it certainly won’t tear the heart out of a lot of people we want to vote for us.”

Given the extension of JobKeeper until the end of the year you'd have to assume that the Commonwealth's budgetary position will deteriorate - you have to wonder where the money to sustain all these programs will come from. Anyway you have to ask; is a job that's been closed and/or unable to employ people for 10 months actually sustainable or are they just trying to keep those people off the official unemployed figures?
  doyle Assistant Commissioner

Even worse for Labor is the news that Scotty's approval rating is a whopping 59% while Albo (who?) has sunk to 26%.

Even a finger puppet would have a high approval rating in this current climate
  michaelgm Chief Commissioner


Tip of the iceberg?
  don_dunstan The Ghost of George Stephenson

Location: Adelaide proud
I guess we should re-open a thread on the economy because I have nowhere else to post this interesting tid-bit: Gold and silver are positively flying at the moment. Gold is pretty much the highest its ever been at $2,600 oz Australian dollars and silver is presently $31.25 oz which is the most since a big spike (short-lived) in 2011.

Someone knows something that we don't?
  ANR Deputy Commissioner

When the world economy is going to hell Inna handbasket, and our plastic currency becomes meaningless because we simply won't be able to withdraw anything from the banks, those holding gold and silver will be holding onto physical assets, and not a bank balance that has been 'swiped' by a bank.

It would seem the only way cash could remain king is if we all kept it under our mattresses.

https://mobile.abc.net.au/news/2020-07-16/coronavirus-crisis-heightens-fears-bank-deposits-could-be-wiped/12458462
  michaelgm Chief Commissioner

Should be compulsory viewing for every MSM journo.

  don_dunstan The Ghost of George Stephenson

Location: Adelaide proud
Paul Keating has been mysteriously absent from the national stage since it was revealed that his daughter was a friend of Geoffrey Epstein, but he stuck his head above the parapet on Monday to speak his book to union-controlled superannuation funds about why it was bad to let people access their own money. From The Australian:

Paul Keating has slammed the Morrison Government scheme that allows Aussies to dip into their super, saying “baby-faced Liberals” were seeking to unravel the $3 trillion retirement savings pool.

Speaking to at an Industry Super Australia forum, the former Labor prime minister said the lack of scrutiny over whether people were eligible to withdraw payments would leave younger low-income workers with little to no retirement savings. Mr Keating said government payments should have taken priority over opening the flood gates to the savings pool, which has already been drained of about $32 billion from coronavirus hardship claims…

“There has been no scrutiny on the reasons for the withdrawals,” Mr Keating said.

“The national response should have been a fiscal policy response — not the burden of the income support and maintenance of living standards coming from people’s long-term retirement savings.”

In an emergency shouldn't those people be allowed access to their own superannuation savings - or doesn't that money belong to them?

My theory is that the superannuation system might not last this decade - it might be required to bail the banking system out. There's huge problems emerging with 55% of mortgage holders reliant on some kind of government assistance presently - you can only imagine what chaos will ensue once that welfare is steadily withdrawn later this year.
  nswtrains Chief Commissioner

Paul Keating has been mysteriously absent from the national stage since it was revealed that his daughter was a friend of Geoffrey Epstein, but he stuck his head above the parapet on Monday to speak his book to union-controlled superannuation funds about why it was bad to let people access their own money. From The Australian:

Paul Keating has slammed the Morrison Government scheme that allows Aussies to dip into their super, saying “baby-faced Liberals” were seeking to unravel the $3 trillion retirement savings pool.

Speaking to at an Industry Super Australia forum, the former Labor prime minister said the lack of scrutiny over whether people were eligible to withdraw payments would leave younger low-income workers with little to no retirement savings. Mr Keating said government payments should have taken priority over opening the flood gates to the savings pool, which has already been drained of about $32 billion from coronavirus hardship claims…

“There has been no scrutiny on the reasons for the withdrawals,” Mr Keating said.

“The national response should have been a fiscal policy response — not the burden of the income support and maintenance of living standards coming from people’s long-term retirement savings.”

In an emergency shouldn't those people be allowed access to their own superannuation savings - or doesn't that money belong to them?

My theory is that the superannuation system might not last this decade - it might be required to bail the banking system out. There's huge problems emerging with 55% of mortgage holders reliant on some kind of government assistance presently - you can only imagine what chaos will ensue once that welfare is steadily withdrawn later this year.
don_dunstan
The Liberals only allowed punters to withdraw money from their super funds during the COVID crisis because they realise a lot of the punters affected by the crisis are low income earners who are mainly in industry funds in the hope they are drained of funds and badly affected. The Liberals hate these industry funds and hope the withdrawal consent will achieve what the Liberals have been trying to achieve for years without success.

Punters can already withdraw super contributions in exceptional circumstances but in this case I am completely opposed to it for the above reasons.
  don_dunstan The Ghost of George Stephenson

Location: Adelaide proud
Gold has been at a new record (in Australian dollars) tonight of AU$2,835 an ounce. Likewise silver has been at 9-year highs of AU$37.32/oz. Silver's bull run has been really quite incredible when you think that only a few months ago it was hovering around its traditional mark of around AU$22/oz.

Clearly someone knows something that we don't about the future of the currency.
  Radioman Chief Train Controller

Hello Al,

regarding Michaelgm's above Twitter replay re $40m authorised spending after caretaker mode. A convention is just that, and nothing more.It is not L A W, and therefore can, and was, and will be ignored here after.

The last State Liberal Government in Victoria gave a secret written guarantee to private financiers of the East West Link Road Tunnel Project  that cost the incoming Labour Government in excess of $1b ( 1 plus nine noughts ! ) , yet this was quite legal, despite Parliament NOT having authorised the payment !

And then we have the creative accounting that allows Senator Corman to claim that the inherited Labour Debt ( which was authorised by Parliament ) to be three times its actual amount !

And Unemployment figures which exclude those on payments other then Jobseeker, and includes anyone working one hour a week as being fully employed.

None of these subterfuges help in discussing these issues, and as we( collectively 0 have allowed this nonsense to go for years now, it is unlikely to change any time soon.

Once upon a time, the Government in Parliament specified its proposed Revenue and Expenditure in the Budget, these days Governments have no intention of being so lucid.

Regards, Radioman
  don_dunstan The Ghost of George Stephenson

Location: Adelaide proud
Paul Keating has been mysteriously absent from the national stage since it was revealed that his daughter was a friend of Geoffrey Epstein, but he stuck his head above the parapet on Monday to speak his book to union-controlled superannuation funds about why it was bad to let people access their own money. From The Australian:

Paul Keating has slammed the Morrison Government scheme that allows Aussies to dip into their super, saying “baby-faced Liberals” were seeking to unravel the $3 trillion retirement savings pool.

Speaking to at an Industry Super Australia forum, the former Labor prime minister said the lack of scrutiny over whether people were eligible to withdraw payments would leave younger low-income workers with little to no retirement savings. Mr Keating said government payments should have taken priority over opening the flood gates to the savings pool, which has already been drained of about $32 billion from coronavirus hardship claims…

“There has been no scrutiny on the reasons for the withdrawals,” Mr Keating said.

“The national response should have been a fiscal policy response — not the burden of the income support and maintenance of living standards coming from people’s long-term retirement savings.”

In an emergency shouldn't those people be allowed access to their own superannuation savings - or doesn't that money belong to them?

My theory is that the superannuation system might not last this decade - it might be required to bail the banking system out. There's huge problems emerging with 55% of mortgage holders reliant on some kind of government assistance presently - you can only imagine what chaos will ensue once that welfare is steadily withdrawn later this year.
The Liberals only allowed punters to withdraw money from their super funds during the COVID crisis because they realise a lot of the punters affected by the crisis are low income earners who are mainly in industry funds in the hope they are drained of funds and badly affected. The Liberals hate these industry funds and hope the withdrawal consent will achieve what the Liberals have been trying to achieve for years without success.

Punters can already withdraw super contributions in exceptional circumstances but in this case I am completely opposed to it for the above reasons.
nswtrains
Superannuation is a completely unfit-for-purpose "retirement savings" scheme costing our society a fortune and significantly disadvantaging the young. As usual with ideas that came from the Hawke/Keating era it was right out of Milton Friedman's playbook (like HECS) and has served only to make the rich richer and entrench the gap between the haves and have-nots. Combined superannuation concessions are now costing the Commonwealth something like $40 billion per year in lost taxation revenue and instead of the number of people on the aged pension declining to negligible levels the number of pensioners has exploded to 2.2 million. People retire and structure their superannuation so that they get BOTH aged pension concessions AND get to keep their superannuation. It also makes us extremely uncompetitive as a nation with Asian countries (whom Hawke and Keating insisted we had to compete head-to-head with) who don't have these mandatory schemes making Aussie workers more expensive on top of the world's most expensive gas and electricity.
  don_dunstan The Ghost of George Stephenson

Location: Adelaide proud
Hello Al,

regarding Michaelgm's above Twitter replay re $40m authorised spending after caretaker mode. A convention is just that, and nothing more.It is not L A W, and therefore can, and was, and will be ignored here after.

The last State Liberal Government in Victoria gave a secret written guarantee to private financiers of the East West Link Road Tunnel Project  that cost the incoming Labour Government in excess of $1b ( 1 plus nine noughts ! ) , yet this was quite legal, despite Parliament NOT having authorised the payment !

And then we have the creative accounting that allows Senator Corman to claim that the inherited Labour Debt ( which was authorised by Parliament ) to be three times its actual amount !

And Unemployment figures which exclude those on payments other then Jobseeker, and includes anyone working one hour a week as being fully employed.

None of these subterfuges help in discussing these issues, and as we( collectively 0 have allowed this nonsense to go for years now, it is unlikely to change any time soon.

Once upon a time, the Government in Parliament specified its proposed Revenue and Expenditure in the Budget, these days Governments have no intention of being so lucid.

Regards, Radioman
Radioman
Statistical rubbish isn't it - especially the unemployment figure which is clearly just a play on semantics.

Scott Morrison on TV this morning announcing even more money to be shoveled at various mental health schemes - as if that makes a difference when you've lost your livelihood.

Where does the money come from? When this thing washes up the Commonwealth is projected to be something like a trillion dollars in debt - printing bonds is going to have some kind of impact at some stage, probably very inflationary.
  Groundrelay Chief Commissioner

Location: Surrounded by Trolls!
Paul Keating has been mysteriously absent from the national stage since it was revealed that his daughter was a friend of Geoffrey Epstein, but he stuck his head above the parapet on Monday to speak his book to union-controlled superannuation funds about why it was bad to let people access their own money. From The Australian:

Paul Keating has slammed the Morrison Government scheme that allows Aussies to dip into their super, saying “baby-faced Liberals” were seeking to unravel the $3 trillion retirement savings pool.

Speaking to at an Industry Super Australia forum, the former Labor prime minister said the lack of scrutiny over whether people were eligible to withdraw payments would leave younger low-income workers with little to no retirement savings. Mr Keating said government payments should have taken priority over opening the flood gates to the savings pool, which has already been drained of about $32 billion from coronavirus hardship claims…

“There has been no scrutiny on the reasons for the withdrawals,” Mr Keating said.

“The national response should have been a fiscal policy response — not the burden of the income support and maintenance of living standards coming from people’s long-term retirement savings.”

In an emergency shouldn't those people be allowed access to their own superannuation savings - or doesn't that money belong to them?

My theory is that the superannuation system might not last this decade - it might be required to bail the banking system out. There's huge problems emerging with 55% of mortgage holders reliant on some kind of government assistance presently - you can only imagine what chaos will ensue once that welfare is steadily withdrawn later this year.
The Liberals only allowed punters to withdraw money from their super funds during the COVID crisis because they realise a lot of the punters affected by the crisis are low income earners who are mainly in industry funds in the hope they are drained of funds and badly affected. The Liberals hate these industry funds and hope the withdrawal consent will achieve what the Liberals have been trying to achieve for years without success.

Punters can already withdraw super contributions in exceptional circumstances but in this case I am completely opposed to it for the above reasons.
Superannuation is a completely unfit-for-purpose "retirement savings" scheme costing our society a fortune and significantly disadvantaging the young. As usual with ideas that came from the Hawke/Keating era it was right out of Milton Friedman's playbook (like HECS) and has served only to make the rich richer and entrench the gap between the haves and have-nots. Combined superannuation concessions are now costing the Commonwealth something like $40 billion per year in lost taxation revenue and instead of the number of people on the aged pension declining to negligible levels the number of pensioners has exploded to 2.2 million. People retire and structure their superannuation so that they get BOTH aged pension concessions AND get to keep their superannuation. It also makes us extremely uncompetitive as a nation with Asian countries (whom Hawke and Keating insisted we had to compete head-to-head with) who don't have these mandatory schemes making Aussie workers more expensive on top of the world's most expensive gas and electricity.
don_dunstan
You forgot how we provide much better social welfare and who pays for that. Super has been bastardised since it was introduced. The LNP have always hated it and turned it into a tax minimisation vehicle to benefit those with the most disposable income. The Pension age keeps pushing out which is fine if you're in a job that isn't taxing on you mentally or physically. No worries if you get retrenched after you're 50 as you'll fall into a new job immediately. Who needs Super anyway!
  don_dunstan The Ghost of George Stephenson

Location: Adelaide proud
You forgot how we provide much better social welfare and who pays for that. Super has been bastardised since it was introduced. The LNP have always hated it and turned it into a tax minimisation vehicle to benefit those with the most disposable income. The Pension age keeps pushing out which is fine if you're in a job that isn't taxing on you mentally or physically. No worries if you get retrenched after you're 50 as you'll fall into a new job immediately. Who needs Super anyway!
Groundrelay
Not sure what it is that you're actually trying to argue here.
  don_dunstan The Ghost of George Stephenson

Location: Adelaide proud
More bad news for the Labor Party - the LNP still holds a two-point lead over them 52/48 but Scott Morrison has pulled away from Albo in the preferred Prime Minister stakes 60/25.
  doyle Assistant Commissioner

I said it before
Even a finger puppet would be popular in this situation
  don_dunstan The Ghost of George Stephenson

Location: Adelaide proud
I said it before
Even a finger puppet would be popular in this situation
doyle
You should tell Daniel Andrews that...
  justapassenger Minister for Railways

I said it before
Even a finger puppet would be popular in this situation
doyle
Yes, there's no place for an Opposition Leader during a crisis like this.

There's nothing he can gain being publicly supportive of the government (they wouldn't let him take any of the credit for any successes) and being too aggressive would allow Scummo to distract from the issues and divert the news cycle towards his strong zone of tit-for-tat partisanship.

Once the crisis is over, politics as usual will resume and the preferred PM numbers will be corrected.

It's quite possible that it will be a complete reversal favouring Albanese, as the nation may want an 'after the war' government.

The Curtin-Chifley government did a great job for Australia during WWII, but had their majority trimmed by six seats at the following election. Scummo only needs to lose two to be at the mercy of the independents.
  RTT_Rules Oliver Bullied, CME

Location: Dubai UAE
I said it before
Even a finger puppet would be popular in this situation
"doyle"


Ummm, not quite, Trump comes to mind as his popularity continues to plummet on the back of already being a FU, but poor response to CV-19 and BLM, both of which could have handed him a 2nd term on a plate, something Jacinta will enjoy but was not looking good prior to CV-19.
  RTT_Rules Oliver Bullied, CME

Location: Dubai UAE
I said it before
Even a finger puppet would be popular in this situation
doyle
Yes, there's no place for an Opposition Leader during a crisis like this.

There's nothing he can gain being publicly supportive of the government (they wouldn't let him take any of the credit for any successes) and being too aggressive would allow Scummo to distract from the issues and divert the news cycle towards his strong zone of tit-for-tat partisanship.

Once the crisis is over, politics as usual will resume and the preferred PM numbers will be corrected.

It's quite possible that it will be a complete reversal favouring Albanese, as the nation may want an 'after the war' government.

The Curtin-Chifley government did a great job for Australia during WWII, but had their majority trimmed by six seats at the following election. Scummo only needs to lose two to be at the mercy of the independents.
"justapassenger"


Incorrect, the Opposition can and should be working with the govt (and I'm sure they actually do, just not visible) help manage the situation. What no one wants to hear is someone behaving like a whinger complaining, we have "Karen" when don't need a complaining Ambo.

Who says the govt wouldn't give credit and whats wrong with the Opp leader giving credit in a crisis?

For example, if this was war against an aggressor, lets pretend we are back in 1940's and Jap's are on the door step. Whats the job of the Opposition Leader? To critise the govt or work with the govt?

Plenty of PM's have been saved or had numbers boosted by a crisis, Iron Lady being one, Jacinda of Kiwiland being another. SCOMO was on his ar$e following bush fires, but turned it around for CV. If there is an election during or immediately after, happy days, if its much later, then yes normal stuff comes back and affects the result.

Interesting that during WW2, the govt changed sides, but then following the war ALP were again retained for 3 years then lost to spend 20 years in political oblivion, so much for the "after war govt" theory.
  kitchgp Chief Commissioner

Jacinda.
  justapassenger Minister for Railways

Incorrect, the Opposition can and should be working with the govt (and I'm sure they actually do, just not visible) help manage the situation. What no one wants to hear is someone behaving like a whinger complaining, we have "Karen" when don't need a complaining Ambo.

Who says the govt wouldn't give credit and whats wrong with the Opp leader giving credit in a crisis?

For example, if this was war against an aggressor, lets pretend we are back in 1940's and Jap's are on the door step. Whats the job of the Opposition Leader? To critise the govt or work with the govt?

Plenty of PM's have been saved or had numbers boosted by a crisis, Iron Lady being one, Jacinda of Kiwiland being another. SCOMO was on his ar$e following bush fires, but turned it around for CV. If there is an election during or immediately after, happy days, if its much later, then yes normal stuff comes back and affects the result.

Interesting that during WW2, the govt changed sides, but then following the war ALP were again retained for 3 years then lost to spend 20 years in political oblivion, so much for the "after war govt" theory.
"RTT_Rules"
There's a limit to how much the Opposition can "work with the Government" when they don't have any seats at the table in a joint War Cabinet. That's an offer for the PM to make, not a measure for the Opposition to demand.

Until the PM says he needs their help and makes the offer, staying out of the way and letting the government get on with governing is the best method of working with the government. Happily for the ALP, it is both the more patriotic option AND the better political option.

The cooperation appeared to be quite genuine in the case of the last House of Representatives sitting, when the ALP cooperated with the government's plan for a sitting of reduced numbers on each side when they would have had every right to turn up in full strength.

Perhaps this is a lesson that Scummo should have considered before his ham-fisted attempt to help the WA Liberals score some petty points when he should have been working with the state government.

I would suggest that the approach of the ALP under Albanese's leadership is more productive than that of Curtin in 1940-41, when as Opposition leader he was offered (numerous times) a united War Cabinet but instead focused on partisan politics and trying to get the keys to The Lodge. Who knows, maybe a united War Cabinet with Menzies as the PM and Curtin as the Minister for Defence Co-ordination might have achieved enough in 1940-41 to bolster Singapore to the point that it could have resisted the Japanese invasion and shortened the war by a year or two.

The Curtin/Forde/Chifley Government lost six seats in the first election after the war. Morrison can only afford to lose two, and he'll probably lose those two in WA.

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