The corona virus COVID-19

 
  don_dunstan Dr Beeching

Location: Adelaide proud
Very interesting article from the Spectator - "Just the facts: The Coronavirus in Australia by numbers".

Some bits that I found most interesting:

The average life expectancy in Australia is 82.8.

As at October 2020 the average age of death from COVID19 in Australia was approximately 85 and the median age at death approximately 86.

No ifs or buts - COVID19 is a disease of the elderly. This is pretty much the opposite of the Spanish influenza outbreak of 100 years ago that caused fatalities predominantly in the very young.

From 1 January to 1 August 2021 the hospital admission rate of Covid cases in Australians aged under 50 was approximately 7.2% (287 out of 3973). Of these, 39 cases were admitted to ICU equating to an ICU admission rate of 0.98% (39 out of 3973) in the under 50 age group.

The majority of Covid cases recover without clinical intervention. The severity of disease and CFR generally increase according to increasing age, i.e. the older you are the more seriously it is likely to affect you.

The majority of deaths in Australia overall, like other developed countries, occur among older people. Sixty-six per cent of deaths registered in Australia in 2019 were among people aged 75 or over...

...Much has been reported on the ‘Delta wave’ being a greater threat to younger people when compared to the initial Covid strain. From 30 June 2021 to 7 September 2021 the number of positive Covid cases recorded in the under 20 age category has more than tripled (from 4,209 to 14,252). However, there has been only one death recorded as due to Covid in this age group, although this has been denied by the hospital, who stated that Covid was not the cause of death.

Again, this is an illness of the elderly.

Approximately 73% of people who have died from Covid in Australia had pre-existing chronic conditions certified on the death certificate.  Approximately 87% of all deaths due to COVID-19 have other conditions listed on the death certificate.

This is roughly the same as the co-morbidity and death rates that were seen at the height of the outbreak in the United States.

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  lsrailfan Minister for Railways

Location: Somewhere you're not
Very interesting article from the Spectator - "Just the facts: The Coronavirus in Australia by numbers".

Some bits that I found most interesting:

The average life expectancy in Australia is 82.8.

As at October 2020 the average age of death from COVID19 in Australia was approximately 85 and the median age at death approximately 86.

No ifs or buts - COVID19 is a disease of the elderly. This is pretty much the opposite of the Spanish influenza outbreak of 100 years ago that caused fatalities predominantly in the very young.

From 1 January to 1 August 2021 the hospital admission rate of Covid cases in Australians aged under 50 was approximately 7.2% (287 out of 3973). Of these, 39 cases were admitted to ICU equating to an ICU admission rate of 0.98% (39 out of 3973) in the under 50 age group.

The majority of Covid cases recover without clinical intervention. The severity of disease and CFR generally increase according to increasing age, i.e. the older you are the more seriously it is likely to affect you.

The majority of deaths in Australia overall, like other developed countries, occur among older people. Sixty-six per cent of deaths registered in Australia in 2019 were among people aged 75 or over...

...Much has been reported on the ‘Delta wave’ being a greater threat to younger people when compared to the initial Covid strain. From 30 June 2021 to 7 September 2021 the number of positive Covid cases recorded in the under 20 age category has more than tripled (from 4,209 to 14,252). However, there has been only one death recorded as due to Covid in this age group, although this has been denied by the hospital, who stated that Covid was not the cause of death.

Again, this is an illness of the elderly.

Approximately 73% of people who have died from Covid in Australia had pre-existing chronic conditions certified on the death certificate.  Approximately 87% of all deaths due to COVID-19 have other conditions listed on the death certificate.

This is roughly the same as the co-morbidity and death rates that were seen at the height of the outbreak in the United States.
don_dunstan
No, this is a disease of the young as well, yes it is true that most of the Elderly are the ones that pass away from it, but most of the admissions into hospitals are young people (at least  in NSW) , some of them end up in ICU as well.
  Myrtone Chief Commissioner

Location: North Carlton, Melbourne, Victoria
Also over in the U.S, emergency approval for vaccination of those 5-12 years of age begins next week. Herd immunity may well be possible once children are also vaccinated.
  Aaron The Ghost of George Stephenson

Location: University of Adelaide SA
I don’t know how many times you need to read this, but where a vaccine (specifically in this case any of the covid vaccines) does not provide immunity from the illness you will never have herd immunity. There is no immunity to be had, herd or otherwise with the current vaccines in use or under development.

Age of licence for use doesn’t matter. It could be licenced for use in blastocysts or zygotes, there will be no immunity and therefore no herd immunity.
  doyle Chief Commissioner

Doses of hope, I'm heartened by that dribble from the PM of Sydney
  doyle Chief Commissioner

Honestly I thought we were in the front of the queue, new deals announced today, geezzz what a liar this PM is
  michaelgm Chief Commissioner

Honestly I thought we were in the front of the queue, new deals announced today, geezzz what a liar this PM is
doyle
Ahhhh, that smirk.
  doyle Chief Commissioner

It happened again, 3 minutes of listening to Scroto and all I'm hearing is blah blah blah blah blah blah blah blah, time for Netflix
  Myrtone Chief Commissioner

Location: North Carlton, Melbourne, Victoria
I don’t know how many times you need to read this, but where a vaccine (specifically in this case any of the covid vaccines) does not provide immunity from the illness you will never have herd immunity. There is no immunity to be had, herd or otherwise with the current vaccines in use or under development.
Aaron
Except according to that article in the U.S.A today, that vaccine does provide some degree of immunity, that's just what a vaccine is. It notes that vaccinated people are only a third as likely to test positive and even less likely to infect others.
  allan Chief Commissioner

I don’t know how many times you need to read this, but where a vaccine (specifically in this case any of the covid vaccines) does not provide immunity from the illness you will never have herd immunity. There is no immunity to be had, herd or otherwise with the current vaccines in use or under development.
Except according to that article in the U.S.A today, that vaccine does provide some degree of immunity, that's just what a vaccine is. It notes that vaccinated people are only a third as likely to test positive and even less likely to infect others.
Myrtone
"Some degree" is not enough...
  Myrtone Chief Commissioner

Location: North Carlton, Melbourne, Victoria
Yes, but not only are they only a third as likely to get infected but when infected, are only contagious for half as long. We are not justified in assuming herd immunity is not possible for that reason, also it has been less than a year since there have been any vaccines against COVID-19. Also, even if the current generation of vaccines is not effective enough a blocking transmission, a next generation of vaccines could be.
If a new generation of vaccines come along, they should be no more of a political issue than vaccines against polio, measles and the like ever have been.
  bevans Site Admin

Location: Melbourne, Australia
NSW Premier Gladys Berejiklian has hit back at suggestions that she will not appear at the daily COVID-19 update due to ongoing ICAC concerns.

On Friday, Ms Berejiklian announced that Sunday’s press conference would be the last one she appeared at on a daily basis.

As opposed to a daily press briefing, New South Wales’ daily COVID-19 case numbers will be transmitted via an online NSW Health update, with the Premier appearing for significant announcements only.

The Premier said on Sunday that the next two months would be the “most challenging our state has seen” and she needed to have a “clear head” to best guide the government.

“I was very upfront and honest to say that while there would be ample information provided on a daily basis, I will not necessarily be the one providing the information on a daily basis, and that is because I need a clear head,” Ms Berejiklian said.
  Carnot Minister for Railways

Read the whole thread to see what a successful Covid strategy and opening up looks like. Hint - Govts need to build trust and not keep the screws down too tight:



Incidentally, a large scale study in USA confirms that vaccination reduces hospitalisation by a factor of 11:
https://www.cnn.com/2021/09/10/health/us-coronavirus-friday/index.html
  ixlr8 Station Master

Location: Melbourne
Also note that Denmark pop some 5 million had 664 positive cases per day over the past week.1.2% of tests with their nearly complete vaccination coverage. How do Scomo and Gladys think we'll go at 70% eligible i.e. about 55% population vaccinated? I doubt rampant covid translates to blossoming economy. Keeping in mind the Doherty report assumed contact tracing and social compliance was in control.
  Myrtone Chief Commissioner

Location: North Carlton, Melbourne, Victoria
It appears that the vaccine uptake in Denmark is still less than that in Malta, let alone the United Arab Emirates. Denmark may have had quite a good covid response for a European country, at least until now. The reason they gave for lifting all restrictions (no longer deemed a social threat) does sound quite political. Is Denmark's vaccine uptake going to continue to increase?
  Carnot Minister for Railways

Also note that Denmark pop some 5 million had 664 positive cases per day over the past week.1.2% of tests with their nearly complete vaccination coverage. How do Scomo and Gladys think we'll go at 70% eligible i.e. about 55% population vaccinated? I doubt rampant covid translates to blossoming economy. Keeping in mind the Doherty report assumed contact tracing and social compliance was in control.
ixlr8
And how many are hospitalized?  Just 132 at present, 20 ventilated.  Entirely manageable and they are getting on with life.  Good on them!
  Myrtone Chief Commissioner

Location: North Carlton, Melbourne, Victoria
I don’t know how many times you need to read this, but where a vaccine (specifically in this case any of the covid vaccines) does not provide immunity from the illness you will never have herd immunity. There is no immunity to be had, herd or otherwise with the current vaccines in use or under development.
"Aaron"

I'm very confused by the claim that the vaccine doesn't provide immunity.

EDIT: See this paper from health feedback.
  Aaron The Ghost of George Stephenson

Location: University of Adelaide SA
Honestly I thought we were in the front of the queue, new deals announced today, geezzz what a liar this PM is
doyle
I have posted about this previously, we were third in the ‘queue’, that we didn’t receive what was ordered (neither has Canada who were #1) was solely the result of EU policy - which I support them in. Moderna was never among those supply orders, because not to make this too obvious, they didn’t have a proven functioning product then… AND, it likely wouldn’t have been sensible to put too much reliance on Moderna in the early period because prior to Spikevax (their Covid vaccine) the company didn’t have a single commercial product, not one, no track record of successful commercial product development.
  DirtyBallast Chief Commissioner

Location: Standing at the limit of an endless ocean
I'm a bit surprised that this hasn't been spoken about here yet:
Tony Abbott says it's un-Australian to dob as he cops $500 fine for not wearing mask (sbs.com.au)

Such is his sense of entitlement - sorry, such is the sense of entitlement of his ilk that he is unapologetic for clearly breaking the law, regardless of his interpretation of it. Rather, Abbott is more concerned about being dobbed in and I have no doubt that retribution has crossed his mind.

We don't need people like that.
  Aaron The Ghost of George Stephenson

Location: University of Adelaide SA
I don’t know how many times you need to read this, but where a vaccine (specifically in this case any of the covid vaccines) does not provide immunity from the illness you will never have herd immunity. There is no immunity to be had, herd or otherwise with the current vaccines in use or under development.

I'm very confused by the claim that the vaccine doesn't provide immunity.

EDIT: See this paper from health feedback.
Myrtone
I do not have the time, energy or inclination to help you with that.

Especially when you write things like this yourself:

I don’t know how many times you need to read this, but where a vaccine (specifically in this case any of the covid vaccines) does not provide immunity from the illness you will never have herd immunity. There is no immunity to be had, herd or otherwise with the current vaccines in use or under development.
Except according to that article in the U.S.A today, that vaccine does provide some degree of immunity, that's just what a vaccine is. It notes that vaccinated people are only a third as likely to test positive and even less likely to infect others.
Myrtone

Consider those words carefully, then consider the IPV, a true vaccine, where ‘some degree’ would be ‘better than 99%’ and ‘a third less’ would be ‘not even 1% chance’.
  Aaron The Ghost of George Stephenson

Location: University of Adelaide SA
I'm a bit surprised that this hasn't been spoken about here yet:
Tony Abbott says it's un-Australian to dob as he cops $500 fine for not wearing mask (sbs.com.au)

Such is his sense of entitlement - sorry, such is the sense of entitlement of his ilk that he is unapologetic for clearly breaking the law, regardless of his interpretation of it. Rather, Abbott is more concerned about being dobbed in and I have no doubt that retribution has crossed his mind.

We don't need people like that.
DirtyBallast
I agree to an extent with Abbott on this one, he’s said he would pay the fine, but the person he was talking to didn’t appear to be wearing a mask, and we seem to just have crickets there.

There are thousands of photos and anecdotal observations of large numbers of Sydneysiders in particular blatantly doing the wrong thing, but because he’s an identifiable person he can be issued a fine because of a photo.

Had he been an unknown and a police officer seen him he’d likely have just been warned, had a police officer not seen him nothing would happen at all. That’s not to defend him, but let’s not go over the top just because he’s widely identifiable.
  doyle Chief Commissioner

I have posted about this previously, we were third in the ‘queue' you may have said this Aaron and I don't doubt you

Nah the Prime Minister said
“front of the queue” for mRNA vaccines
On the 5th November 2020
And repeated this many times
  doyle Chief Commissioner

Why did he say this? Because he is a liar.
  Myrtone Chief Commissioner

Location: North Carlton, Melbourne, Victoria
@Aaron - Why do you insist that the vaccines don't provide immunity when I pointed out that those who are vaccinated are only a third as likely to get infected and aren't contagious for as long?
Can it really count as a vaccine if it doesn't provide immunity? Isn't providing immunity the whole point of a vaccine?
  Aaron The Ghost of George Stephenson

Location: University of Adelaide SA
I have posted about this previously, we were third in the ‘queue' you may have said this Aaron and I don't doubt you

Nah the Prime Minister said
“front of the queue” for mRNA vaccines
On the 5th November 2020
And repeated this many times
doyle
I am sure he did.

Why did he say this? Because he is a liar.
doyle
No, he was probably telling the truth.

Recall that there are two mRNA vaccines on the market.

One is from Pfizer, an export that was placed under embargo by the EU - an embargo that wasn't issued before December 20 (there was no functioning product at that stage to embargo) at the earliest.

The other mRNA product is from Moderna, a company that prior to the release of their Covid vaccine had ZERO commercial products - I am not so sure you would be singing his praises if we invested a bunch of stock in a company with no track record of anything.

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