So forget it about it, Mike, we might be rushing down the path to blackouts and ever-more expensive electricity but the Chinese are not joining us. And if they don't join us it makes all our efforts in little old Australia (less than half a percent of all emissions globally) just a joke - a joke at the expense of jobs and the poor.
So, in your opinion, the actual experts have no idea what they are talking about and the other elephant in the room that was just insurmountable for you to comment on.
Murdoch has instructed his media to be pro the environment...IE anti-coal from 17 October. Looks like you're off to a very lonely space.
We still have the elephant in the room saying that life without coal is impossible. He may yet be bracketed together with Lord Kelvin (1824 - 1907), President of that august scientific body, the Royal Society. Some of his more famous statements are:- “ Heavier than air flying machines are impossible” “There is nothing new to be discovered in physics now.” “Radio has no future; X Rays are a hoax.”
Australia is not in a position to abandon coal sourced power for around 15-20 years as the alternatives do not exist today. Mike, just because Murdoch has APPARENTLY agreed to give in to the likes of Malcolm Turnbull and Kevin Rudd - who have been publicly pressuring him to do that - doesn't mean what I've always said is any less true. We are not in a position to either stop burning coal OR to stop exporting it for very clear reasons. Coal is getting the best prices its got in years at the moment - like I said fifty-four billion so you and I can buy our tasty imported treats (pretty much everything we consume). Are you ready for rapid inflation if we're forced to stop selling it?
Malcolm Turnbull never discloses his huge direct financial interest in wind-farms by the way -
And at least RTT_Rules and Aaron have enough brains to understand that particularly in this instance what I'm saying is a hundred percent right - we can't have reliable power and a transition to even 50% NEM renewables without huge cap ex and even then we still risk blackouts when there's a slow moving high pressure system in winter as I've explained before. Batteries and pumped hydro just won't cut the mustard if there's no wind or sun for a few days.
The technology AND infrastructure to support what they're proposing simply isn't there - it's like Elon Musk's electric truck, too ambitious and the tech isn't there. If I have to I guess I'll have to buy a stand-alone thing to by-pass the grid entirely but mark my words unfavorable weather nationally equals blackouts without coal. Bridge too far.
The Power Geeration component of the required CAPEX to transition to RE is part of the cost of replacement of the aging coal fleet. A coal power station is rated to operate between 40 - 50 years at which time its deemed end of life and needs capital investment, regardless of the coal - anti coal sedement at the time.
A coal power station costs around US $2B / GW. So 5 x coal power stations averaging 1.5GW each = A$20B +/- 30%. So between now and 2030-35 you have around $20B of CAPEX that needs to be spent anyway in generational capacity.
In each case the replacemet power station will more than likely be placed in a new location as nearly all the current generation were for a number of reasons. So new HV lines will also be required. Even if not, the existing lines will also likely be end of life and/or need considerable upgrades.
HV lines in general have a finite life of around 80 years, depeding on location. But more often not need upgrades in capacity mid life which is not cheap as often done live. Think helicopters beig used as platforms to change each insulator and often new cables being pulled through. Regardless a new 1000 MW line costs around $1-2 m/km.
The transition to 50% RE in the NEM is actually not that far away.
Coal is 65% and decreasing by about 2% yoy, although this will accelerate over the coming 10 years.
Gas is around 7%, but will be entrenched in our supply and likely expand to 10% for another 20 years or more.
However to push harder for a faster reduction is more than likely just wasting money sunk into the existing coal fleet and supportig infrastructure. The youngest coal power station is barely 15 years old.
Lots of mistakes made in the past by various govts thinking short term and TBH a number of state govt's including Vic and SA and to a lesser degree NSW (with Qld rubbing its hands at the extra revenue selling more coal power to SE corner) leaving the longer term problem for the feds to solve. However the pathway to 50% (40% coal) by 2030 I think is well established and to some point irreversable and the current fed govt has made huge headway over the last 4 years using technology available today to work towards closing Liddel and others in the late 2020's without a crisis in the grid as happened in the past.
Cyber truck has alot of issues, I actually think the least of their worries is he EV techology, rather than the non convential design to build a large 4x4. Its a bit like SpaceX Starship, they didn't just have to invent the Metholox engine, rather invent new ways to weld and different alloys to use. However unlike Cyber truck, each test Starship is only required to be used once and then its redundent technology. Musk even said its better blow them up as its quicker and cheaper than pulling them apart for scrapping. Not sure the average Redneck is ready to drive their car just once.