The demise of the ALP in the next federal election

 
  michaelgm Chief Commissioner

A rather comprehensive smack down. Michael West Media.



https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=PuP4jOc4ibo&feature=youtu.be

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  don_dunstan Dr Beeching

Location: Adelaide proud
FFS, are you the next Don?
RTT_Rules
Army of me.
  Aaron The Ghost of George Stephenson

Location: University of Adelaide SA
FFS, are you the next Don?
Army of me.
don_dunstan
More terrifying than the DPRK's military.
  don_dunstan Dr Beeching

Location: Adelaide proud
FFS, are you the next Don?
Army of me.
More terrifying than the DPRK's military.
Aaron
If only!
  Aaron The Ghost of George Stephenson

Location: University of Adelaide SA
Hopefully this will put the 'did we order 140M vaccine doses?' question to bed.

This is 'Nature' likely one of the (or just 'the') most respected, peer reviewed general science journals. Articles published in Nature tend to be just a little more thoroughly researched and respected than articles you will find in ANY other media source.

I presumed it was beyond a paywall, today I looked at it from a computer I have running behind a VPN, so it's not pay walled like I thought.

It is worth noting that the article is dated 30/11/20.

https://www.nature.com/articles/d41586-020-03370-6

Of note is a not particularly well scaled chart showing the 'Best and Worst Supplied'. Earlier in this thread I mentioned various placements of Australia as being 'second' or 'third' in the 'vaccine queue'. Overall, this chart shows Australia fourth, that Canada is first is not disputed, but in terms of 'pre-ordered' Australia is second as I stated some pages back, though at some point the UK committed to some extra doses and that is why I corrected myself to say that Australia was third in the queue at that time. The US should likely lie below the EU, but Nature seems to have regarded 'Potentially Expanded Orders' in the totals.

So how many vaccine doses did Australia have on order? As I mentioned above, the chart is not particularly well scaled, but if Australia has about 23 million people and we think the chart might indicate about 5.5 doses per person on 30/11/20 we arrive at approximately 125 million doses (including 10 million doses of Pfizer), that's short of 140 million? Australia ordered an extra 20 million Astra Zeneca 11 days after this article was published - so there's your 140 million, give or take.

Peer reviewed science journals are not typically in the business of bias or lying. So yes, forgive me if I say that the Guardian or any other media source that disputes the 140 million figure, or the timeline or that Australia didn't try hard enough are straight up demonstrating bias, grossly (possibly willfully) misled, wrong, or lying, because, they just are!

Further, Australia placed additional Pfizer orders of 10 million in February, a further 20 million in April (that's 40 million doses total to then, nearly enough to vaccinate the nation twice), and an additional order placed in July for 85 million doses for delivery in the next two years for the 'booster' shots that it is claimed our PM 'forgot'. Then there's the additional European excess purchases we have been sensibly snapping up, perhaps Wobert, et al, would like to see them go to other nations...
  wobert Chief Commissioner

Location: Half way between Propodolla and Kinimakatka
Let me see if I've got this right, Aust Population  25.5 Million   https://www.abs.gov.au/AUSSTATS/abs@.nsf/Web+Pages/Population+Clock?opendocument&ref=HPKI

X 5.5 doses equals um   140 million
  wobert Chief Commissioner

Location: Half way between Propodolla and Kinimakatka
Actually 141 million
  wobert Chief Commissioner

Location: Half way between Propodolla and Kinimakatka
Plus 20 Million extra AZ 11 days later, according to you, plus 10 million in Feb, plus another lot  of 20 million in April, your figures. I'm confused  that's 190 million now.
  Aaron The Ghost of George Stephenson

Location: University of Adelaide SA
Probably, 50 million of those are UQ vaccine which is abandoned, 50(?) million are Novavax which is not yet able to produce enough for Australia and is not yet TGA approved and 20 million are Moderna which are just coming to the Australian market. Some of the apparent excess are possibly Astra Zeneca contracted production at CSL, which given the general reluctance for AZ might not be going ahead.

By now there could well be other orders I am not aware of covering some of those lost manufacture numbers.
  wobert Chief Commissioner

Location: Half way between Propodolla and Kinimakatka
Probably, 50 million of those are UQ vaccine which is abandoned, 50(?) million are Novavax which is not yet able to produce enough for Australia and is not yet TGA approved and 20 million are Moderna which are just coming to the Australian market. Some of the apparent excess are possibly Astra Zeneca contracted production at CSL, which given the general reluctance for AZ might not be going ahead.

By now there could well be other orders I am not aware of covering some of those lost manufacture numbers.
Aaron
"Probably", 50(?)"Some of the apparent excess are possibly Astra Zeneca " might," there could well be other orders"  

A lot of ifs, buts and maybes there




So in other words Morrison made all his announcements Oct/ Nov/Dec on how much vaccine was forthcoming last year before he even had any idea of what numbers they had on the horizon. And  continually lied for a couple of months afterwards, then changed tack to it's not a race when the facade fell away in Feb.   Okay, I think I get it now
  Aaron The Ghost of George Stephenson

Location: University of Adelaide SA
They’re my uncertainties, not from the government, I posted that reply from my phone during my lunch break, walking through the central market to Gouger St in Adelaide whilst I contemplated whether I felt more like sushi or ramen. I was hardly going to actually look up the numbers for sure - although you could…

If I realised you wanted a precise explanation I would have waited until 2am when I am likely to have finished all the other smeg I have to do today for work and all other more important tasks…

I do feel compelled to point this out though - you don’t look very rational criticising the government for making announcements in *insert month here* without knowing what was happening - do you recall having tried to greatly criticise the government for not ordering big quantities of Pfizer in June? I recall you doing that and I recall telling you reason was that Pfizer had not passed phase 3 trial then.

So would you have them go with what they know, or what they don’t know? It seems to me that you want that a bit both ways - a behaviour I see often in people that have a strong bias towards a certain political agenda, something you’ve been called out on more than once now.
  wobert Chief Commissioner

Location: Half way between Propodolla and Kinimakatka
Are we going to rehash all this about when the US,UK and others made agreements in June to acquire Pfizer, fast track their approvals. The UK basically just took Pfizers trial data, and being in a world wide Pandemic,  got on with it.


I don't particularly care if you had ramen sushi or cornflakes for lunch, is that supposed to impress me.


As we now know with the FOI documents, Hunt and Morrison ineptness and lying was uncovered.

And as  for the comment about my political bias, coming from someone like you and that other purveyor of mediocrity, I'm in the little leagues. Nah mate, you tried to slip one through and try to justify your comments about the 140 million doses that were promised, got undone by you own link, so tried to slide one through about Australias population hoping no one would notice. Your fellow clowns at the Fairground would have more credibility than you.   I'll turn the Barbie off....
  Aaron The Ghost of George Stephenson

Location: University of Adelaide SA
Are we going to rehash all this about when the US,UK and others made agreements in June to acquire Pfizer, fast track their approvals. The UK basically just took Pfizers trial data, and being in a world wide Pandemic,  got on with it.


I don't particularly care if you had ramen sushi or cornflakes for lunch, is that supposed to impress me.


As we now know with the FOI documents, Hunt and Morrison ineptness and lying was uncovered.

And as  for the comment about my political bias, coming from someone like you and that other purveyor of mediocrity, I'm in the little leagues. Nah mate, you tried to slip one through and try to justify your comments about the 140 million doses that were promised, got undone by you own link, so tried to slide one through about Australias population hoping no one would notice. Your fellow clowns at the Fairground would have more credibility than you.   I'll turn the Barbie off....
wobert
You, yourself verified the government's figures!

So I guessed the population wrong by less than 10%, you're correct, 5.5 doses per person on 25.5 million population is 140.25 million - effectively exactly what the government said. In fact, if you want to use 25.5 million as the population and work back from the claimed 140 million doses that chart in Nature ought to depict a value of 5.49/person - you're making my estimate look even better. The chart was graduated 4 - 6, so I think estimating the value to within 0.2% is pretty good. A lot better than Guardian could have done.

The Nature article was published on 30/11/20.

I was right about the extra 50 million you mentioned getting to 190 million, the UQ contracted supply (50 million doses) was cancelled 11 days after that article was published, so it stands to reason that the 190 million figure you arrive at is the original 140 million, plus an additional 50 million additional order to make up for the lost 50 million from UQ.

Either way, it's pretty apparent that the government had a lot closer to 140 million doses on order than 0, which is closer to the number you want to believe.
  wobert Chief Commissioner

Location: Half way between Propodolla and Kinimakatka
Really,  https://www.abc.net.au/news/2021-02-04/australia-vaccine-rollout-questions-pfizer/13121686

So now we're  a week or so from October, we've managed to put 25 or 26 million jabs in arms out of supposedly 150 million vaccines available. So where are they? Or has Morrison just been making announcements again? Like the submarines, a big announcement, and then in the fine print, in 20 years time. Or the classic at the last election, the budget is already in the black.... next year. And Morrison got caught out last year claiming they had done a deal with AZ, when the deal didn't occur until a month later. par for the course

Meanwhile:    https://www.news.com.au/lifestyle/health/health-problems/australia-urges-us-to-send-26-million-vaccine-doses-as-pandemic-spirals-out-of-control/news-story/0ece54936e937756d6b36b19f3d006a7      Why? We've got 150 million vaccines according to the Feds.   Bloke could spend a week chasing down Morrisons announcements  https://www.perthnow.com.au/news/coronavirus/coronavirus-crisis-prime-minister-scott-morrison-announces-more-pfizer-vaccines-on-the-way-ng-b881787373z

I did like the headline on this one   https://www.turkishnewspress.com.au/australia-has-deals-for-150-million-covid-19-vaccines-so-where-are-they/

Ooopps    https://www.crikey.com.au/2021/09/17/early-pfizer-deal-more-than-150-lives-lockdowns-ended/

This is getting tedious   https://www.smh.com.au/national/how-did-australia-s-vaccine-rollout-turn-into-a-train-wreck-20210729-p58dzu.html

And one out of sheer boredom   https://pharmadispatch.com/news/exclusive-pm-intervened-to-get-action-on-vaccine-procurement
  wobert Chief Commissioner
  wobert Chief Commissioner

Location: Half way between Propodolla and Kinimakatka
Other wise cut and paste for anybody who cares any more
  RTT_Rules Oliver Bullied, CME

Location: Dubai UAE
Other wise cut and paste for anybody who cares any more
wobert
Wobert, no one cares anymore as you posts have become so full of $hit I can smell them from here.

"So now we're  a week or so from October, we've managed to put 25 or 26 million jabs in arms out of supposedly 150 million vaccines available. So where are they?"

You know the answer to your repateative and basically now stupid questions. Yes they are stupid because the details from govt, ABC and other independent websites not related media or other agendas so only pure and utter stupidty from your side would drive you to keep harping on about the same question pretenting you don't know when you know exactly what happened to over 100 m of those vaccines. 5 year olds carry on with the Why Why Why Why questions because they are trying to learn about the world. Adults who do the same either when presented with the answers have either a low mental capacity or just being a di_ck!
  RTT_Rules Oliver Bullied, CME

Location: Dubai UAE
Seriously Wobert, sorry Don Mk2, you are so full of $hit on this subject you are unbelievable.
Written by the most self-opinionated know-all these pages have ever seen.
Valvegear
Valvegear,
As you are part of Wobert's Cheersquad who seems to have a problem with counting, are you in the same boat?
  don_dunstan Dr Beeching

Location: Adelaide proud
Wobert, no one cares anymore as you posts have become so full of $hit I can smell them from here.
RTT_Rules
I think my irony meter just broke.
  RTT_Rules Oliver Bullied, CME

Location: Dubai UAE
Wobert, no one cares anymore as you posts have become so full of $hit I can smell them from here.
I think my irony meter just broke.
don_dunstan
Says he who lives in a glass house
  don_dunstan Dr Beeching

Location: Adelaide proud
Wobert, no one cares anymore as you posts have become so full of $hit I can smell them from here.
I think my irony meter just broke.
Says he who lives in a glass house
RTT_Rules
Oh please, my enemies are delusional obsessives. Yours are a hundred percent right.
  Aaron The Ghost of George Stephenson

Location: University of Adelaide SA
Wow, so it turns out that the definition of ‘friend’ isn’t ‘having mutual enemies’.
  don_dunstan Dr Beeching

Location: Adelaide proud
Wow, so it turns out that the definition of ‘friend’ isn’t ‘having mutual enemies’.
Aaron
No, indeed, it's not. There's enough hate on Railpage to spread around between many, many people. Wonderful isn't it?
  wobert Chief Commissioner

Location: Half way between Propodolla and Kinimakatka
Other wise cut and paste for anybody who cares any more
Wobert, no one cares anymore as you posts have become so full of $hit I can smell them from here.

"So now we're  a week or so from October, we've managed to put 25 or 26 million jabs in arms out of supposedly 150 million vaccines available. So where are they?"

You know the answer to your repateative and basically now stupid questions. Yes they are stupid because the details from govt, ABC and other independent websites not related media or other agendas so only pure and utter stupidty from your side would drive you to keep harping on about the same question pretenting you don't know when you know exactly what happened to over 100 m of those vaccines. 5 year olds carry on with the Why Why Why Why questions because they are trying to learn about the world. Adults who do the same either when presented with the answers have either a low mental capacity or just being a di_ck!
RTT_Rules
Whatever you reckon .....champ... or should I say chump
  Aaron The Ghost of George Stephenson

Location: University of Adelaide SA
Really,  https://www.abc.net.au/news/2021-02-04/australia-vaccine-rollout-questions-pfizer/13121686

So now we're  a week or so from October, we've managed to put 25 or 26 million jabs in arms out of supposedly 150 million vaccines available. So where are they?
wobert
Just to stick to your chosen 'favourite' countries, the ones you claim to have all your information on, the ones you should be most familiar with:

Canada nearly 9 doses ordered per person, around 35 million people, so around 315 million doses ordered, 55.3 million doses issued - so they're 'missing' about 259.7 million doses.

USA around 7.5 doses ordered per person, around 330 million people, so around 2,475 million doses ordered, about 390 million doses issued - so they're 'missing' about 2,085 million doses.

UK not quite 6 doses ordered per person, around 67 million people, so around 396 million doses ordered, about 93 million doses issued - so they're 'missing' about 303 million doses.

EU about 4.5 doses ordered per person, around 446 million people, so around 2,007 million doses ordered, about 565 million doses issued - so they're 'missing' about 1,442 million doses.

(I think I have told you that before).

My guess is that you know, but you're just being a deliberate contrarian, exactly where all those 'missing' doses are... If you don't, try thinking about it, just for two blank lines before I tell you...


They're not 'missing' at all, they're just yet to be manufactured!

Pfizer state that in 2021 they think they will deliver 1.4 billion doses, Moderna think they will deliver about 1 billion doses, so if they were the only companies producing for the US market between them they might be able to just cover it - that's without a single supply in Canada, and no Pfizer for Australia/you.

AstraZeneca has the most capacity, about 3 billion doses expected to be delivered, and that will be about enough to cover the EU, UK, AU and Canada - if they don't ship many vaccine doses to other countries, like those in Europe but not in the EU (pro tip: they already have shipped to other countries). We need to protect Norway, Iceland, Switzerland, Belarus (despite Alyaksandr Lukashenka), Ukraine, Albania, Armenia, Azerbaijan, Serbia, et al, too.

All of that is dependent on how optimistic/pessimistic the vendors are with their manufacture rates, my guess is that all manufacturers will most likely over promise and under deliver, mostly because they want to be optimistic, but also because they want the orders.

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