The China Problem

 
  303gunner Train Controller

Was the 'Attack' class submarine name deliberately chosen to be offensive or was the name just a 'creeping assumption'?
Neither.

The RAN, like many other navies, re-uses names of previous ships. The previous HMAS Attack was the class leader of a series of Patrol Boats (Surface vessels, not Subs). These 21 patrol boats were introduced in the late '60s and phased out during the '80s and '90s, being replaced with the Fremantle Class.
No reason we couldn’t still use the same class and individual boat names.

It’s not as though the diesel boats even got so far as a completed design, there’ll be no confusion.

Maybe we can just call them the class leader Attack, then name the rest of them after Chinese locales.
Aaron
HMAS Montebello
HMAS Maralinga
HMAS Totem
HMAS Woomera
HMAS Mururoa
HMAS Bikini  (Hello, Sailor!!)

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  don_dunstan Dr Beeching

Location: Adelaide proud
Iron ore down again last night, now struggling to hold above $90 a ton. Once it gets to around $60 it becomes a struggle for the smaller mines to make profits because they don't have the scale.

Evergrande has to refinance before the week is out and a likely default is expected - that will make the situation in China even worse.
  billybaxter Chief Commissioner

Location: Bosnia Park, Fairfield
Worse? How is the situation even bad? China's growth has slowed down, but it has got through the Covid like a speed bump and its power ahead now bringing more generations out of poverty. We'll see China become economy Number 1 in our lifetime s.
  don_dunstan Dr Beeching

Location: Adelaide proud
Worse? How is the situation even bad? China's growth has slowed down, but it has got through the Covid like a speed bump and its power ahead now bringing more generations out of poverty. We'll see China become economy Number 1 in our lifetime s.
billybaxter
Autocracies always fall over, Billy. And China is one of the most unequal societies in the world - there's no universal health-care or social security despite the fact that it's a 'communist' country. You really think that their system is superior to ours?
  Aaron The Ghost of George Stephenson

Location: University of Adelaide SA
HMAS Bikini  (Hello, Sailor!!)
303gunner
Remember the first rule of the navy, ‘It’s not gay if the boat’s underway!’.
  justarider Chief Commissioner

Location: Released again, maybe for the last time??
Autocracies always fall over, Billy. And China is one of the most unequal societies in the world - there's no universal health-care or social security despite the fact that it's a 'communist' country. You really think that their system is superior to ours?
don_dunstan
"no universal health-care or social security"

Codswallop.
https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Healthcare_in_China
https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Social_welfare_in_China
From family there for a decade, the consensus is "excellent"
  don_dunstan Dr Beeching

Location: Adelaide proud
Autocracies always fall over, Billy. And China is one of the most unequal societies in the world - there's no universal health-care or social security despite the fact that it's a 'communist' country. You really think that their system is superior to ours?
"no universal health-care or social security"

Codswallop.
https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Healthcare_in_China
https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Social_welfare_in_China
From family there for a decade, the consensus is "excellent"
justarider
From the article you linked - "Rural residents are expected to provide for themselves".

Not universal at all.
  don_dunstan Dr Beeching

Location: Adelaide proud
Again, from the same Wikipedia article: 'Public health insurance generally only covers about half of medical costs, with the proportion lower for serious or chronic illnesses.'. So if you have diabetes or heart disease then you have to pay for your treatment yourself.

I call a definite 'codswallop' on your assertion, sir.

Anyway would you really want to live there? I wouldn't. Even being rich is no protection from the unpredictable persecutions of the CCP as Jack Ma recently found out, still under house arrest apparently.
  justarider Chief Commissioner

Location: Released again, maybe for the last time??
Autocracies always fall over, Billy. And China is one of the most unequal societies in the world - there's no universal health-care or social security despite the fact that it's a 'communist' country. You really think that their system is superior to ours?
"no universal health-care or social security"

Codswallop.
https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Healthcare_in_China
https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Social_welfare_in_China
From family there for a decade, the consensus is "excellent"
From the article you linked - "Rural residents are expected to provide for themselves".

Not universal at all.
don_dunstan
A terrific quote. Pity it was not said in the article.

It just a typical wiki mish-mash that gives a flavour of what it's like.
The pity being that it flip flops between what used to be (1990 rural had it tough) and the various reform measures to address the problems.

I couldn't find any better, than annecdotal in-laws , way out the boonies get excellent treatment that is almost all covered by their equivalent of medicare. City treatment for kids is fully covered.

And I would not want to live there. All good for the natives ( as long as you don't complain),  but the numbers and crowds are too full on for more than a visit.
  don_dunstan Dr Beeching

Location: Adelaide proud
From the article you linked - "Rural residents are expected to provide for themselves".

Not universal at all.
A terrific quote. Pity it was not said in the article.
justarider
Sorry, should have been more specific. It's in the second Wikipedia link (second paragraph), not the first.
It just a typical wiki mish-mash that gives a flavour of what it's like. The pity being that it flip flops between what used to be (1990 rural had it tough) and the various reform measures to address the problems. I couldn't find any better, than annecdotal in-laws , way out the boonies get excellent treatment that is almost all covered by their equivalent of medicare. City treatment for kids is fully covered. And I would not want to live there. All good for the natives ( as long as you don't complain), but the numbers and crowds are too full on for more than a visit.
justarider
Yeah I'd say the systems aren't equivalent at all - we have a top-to-tail medical system here. My only gripe is that you just don't get the same level of medical care when you live rural and remote - you have to travel to the big cities for specialists and things like cancer treatments but otherwise the cost is the same (ie usually free for public patients).

Centrelink too, it's a relatively generous system that you don't have to have contributed to in order to benefit from. Most other nations you have a social security 'account' that you need to have contributed to. No wonder people get on leaky boats to come here, this place is paradise by comparison.
  justarider Chief Commissioner

Location: Released again, maybe for the last time??
From the article you linked - "Rural residents are expected to provide for themselves".

Not universal at all.
A terrific quote. Pity it was not said in the article.
Sorry, should have been more specific. It's in the second Wikipedia link (second paragraph), not the first.
It just a typical wiki mish-mash that gives a flavour of what it's like. The pity being that it flip flops between what used to be (1990 rural had it tough) and the various reform measures to address the problems. I couldn't find any better, than annecdotal in-laws , way out the boonies get excellent treatment that is almost all covered by their equivalent of medicare. City treatment for kids is fully covered. And I would not want to live there. All good for the natives ( as long as you don't complain), but the numbers and crowds are too full on for more than a visit.
Yeah I'd say the systems aren't equivalent at all - we have a top-to-tail medical system here. My only gripe is that you just don't get the same level of medical care when you live rural and remote - you have to travel to the big cities for specialists and things like cancer treatments but otherwise the cost is the same (ie usually free for public patients).

Centrelink too, it's a relatively generous system that you don't have to have contributed to in order to benefit from. Most other nations you have a social security 'account' that you need to have contributed to. No wonder people get on leaky boats to come here, this place is paradise by comparison.
don_dunstan
Er um. Too many double negatives for this time of night.  

No argument from me that Medicare and Centrelink are good systems, in theory anyways.

Rural vs City - I think you mean in OZ. Back of Bourke is challenging.

Similar in China , excepts there are nearly a thousand large cities much closer to the hundreds of thousands of villages. Not so difficult to get to the quality centres when needed. Scale has its own benefits as well as problems.

Not so many leaky boat ecapees from China. Mostly Millionaires trying their best to stay that way. China follows the golden rule too.

cheers
John
  don_dunstan Dr Beeching

Location: Adelaide proud
Er um. Too many double negatives for this time of night.  

No argument from me that Medicare and Centrelink are good systems, in theory anyways.

Rural vs City - I think you mean in OZ. Back of Bourke is challenging.

Similar in China , excepts there are nearly a thousand large cities much closer to the hundreds of thousands of villages. Not so difficult to get to the quality centres when needed. Scale has its own benefits as well as problems.

Not so many leaky boat ecapees from China. Mostly Millionaires trying their best to stay that way. China follows the golden rule too.

cheers
John
justarider
OUR own plutocracy have benefited enormously from the rise of the Chinese rich - particularly things like real estate. Witness the 2013 inquiry into housing affordability by then Member for Higgins Kelly O'Dwyer - it was a complete whitewash that said they couldn't estimate how many foreign investors there were of housing in the capitals and that there was nothing they could do about it anyway. Rubbish! They themselves were benefiting from the runaway real estate prices (they still are) and they deliberately didn't want to do anything about it.

That money was to a large extent coming from Chinese wealthy who wanted to have a bolt-hole to escape to in case things went awry in China - I don't really blame those people but in the meantime the cost of buying the average house in Sydney and Melbourne has accelerated to 8 times the median income - historically it's around a quarter of that. We sold out the youth of this nation to sustain a real estate boom a substantial portion of which was fueled by foreign money.

The other thing that was badly handled in my opinion was the so-called "free trade agreement" with China, something that's not worth the paper its written on. They invented lies last year to punish us for supporting an investigation into the true origins of this whole COVID disaster and our own government seemingly too frightened of them to retaliate. Gutless - and sends a clear message that we can be easily walked over with few consequences.

My two cents.
  don_dunstan Dr Beeching

Location: Adelaide proud
Interesting article on the 'decline' of the Chinese economic miracle - Foreign Policy;

Over the past 150 years, peaking powers—great powers that had been growing dramatically faster than the world average and then suffered a severe, prolonged slowdown—usually don’t fade away quietly. Rather, they become brash and aggressive. They suppress dissent at home and try to regain economic momentum by creating exclusive spheres of influence abroad. They pour money into their militaries and use force to expand their influence. This behavior commonly provokes great-power tensions. In some cases, it touches disastrous wars.


This shouldn’t be surprising. Eras of rapid growth supercharge a country’s ambitions, raise its people’s expectations, and make its rivals nervous. During a sustained economic boom, businesses enjoy rising profits and citizens get used to living large. The country becomes a bigger player on the global stage. Then stagnation strikes.

Slowing growth makes it harder for leaders to keep the public happy. Economic underperformance weakens the country against its rivals. Fearing upheaval, leaders crack down on dissent. They maneuver desperately to keep geopolitical enemies at bay. Expansion seems like a solution—a way of grabbing economic resources and markets, making nationalism a crutch for a wounded regime, and beating back foreign threats.

Personally I think it's likely that any prolonged economic problems with the Chinese economy will be used as an excuse for a new cold war against the West - totalitarian societies need enemies.
  justarider Chief Commissioner

Location: Released again, maybe for the last time??
Interesting article on the 'decline' of the Chinese economic miracle - Foreign Policy;

Over the past 150 years, peaking powers—great powers that had been growing dramatically faster than the world average and then suffered a severe, prolonged slowdown—usually don’t fade away quietly. Rather, they become brash and aggressive. They suppress dissent at home and try to regain economic momentum by creating exclusive spheres of influence abroad. They pour money into their militaries and use force to expand their influence. This behavior commonly provokes great-power tensions. In some cases, it touches disastrous wars.


This shouldn’t be surprising. Eras of rapid growth supercharge a country’s ambitions, raise its people’s expectations, and make its rivals nervous. During a sustained economic boom, businesses enjoy rising profits and citizens get used to living large. The country becomes a bigger player on the global stage. Then stagnation strikes.

Slowing growth makes it harder for leaders to keep the public happy. Economic underperformance weakens the country against its rivals. Fearing upheaval, leaders crack down on dissent. They maneuver desperately to keep geopolitical enemies at bay. Expansion seems like a solution—a way of grabbing economic resources and markets, making nationalism a crutch for a wounded regime, and beating back foreign threats.

Personally I think it's likely that any prolonged economic problems with the Chinese economy will be used as an excuse for a new cold war against the West - totalitarian societies need enemies.
don_dunstan
I first thought that this was a description of UK and USA. And now blame China for following such excellent examples.
  don_dunstan Dr Beeching

Location: Adelaide proud
I first thought that this was a description of UK and USA. And now blame China for following such excellent examples.
justarider
Yeah well as the article says, they're just following a time-honored paradigm aren't they. Hard to know what else they can do to distract from the inevitable internal economic problems.
  billybaxter Chief Commissioner

Location: Bosnia Park, Fairfield
Interesting. Clear similarities with (as the article says), Germany (twice), Russia (twice), Japan and the United states. I can't see how we could say the U.K. has been through this though. I think the size of the Chinese cultural sphere, the complexity of the economy (and its integration in the economy of so many other regions) and the length and complexity of her history mean that we are looking at a situation which shows many superficial similarities but deep currents that make the changes indecipherable. We can make a comparison with the a declining football team, always ready to go the biff to impress the supporters, but there ARE major differences.
  303gunner Train Controller

Well, this is a "Curious Co-incidence".

https://7news.com.au/technology/space/china-long-march-3b-rocket-launch-lines-up-with-flying-object-seen-over-sydney--c-4087168

How peculiar that China sees the need to launch a "Communication Satellite" using a low orbit  Missile over Australia's Eastern States. Was it intended as a demonstration to show that Chinese Missiles can easily reach the south eastern population centres?
  don_dunstan Dr Beeching

Location: Adelaide proud
Well, this is a "Curious Co-incidence".

https://7news.com.au/technology/space/china-long-march-3b-rocket-launch-lines-up-with-flying-object-seen-over-sydney--c-4087168

How peculiar that China sees the need to launch a "Communication Satellite" using a low orbit  Missile over Australia's Eastern States. Was it intended as a demonstration to show that Chinese Missiles can easily reach the south eastern population centres?
303gunner
They've long been able to reach our shores with their missiles - not sure why they'd need the additional threat of a low-orbit satellite.

Meanwhile Goldman Sachs has slashed its China growth forecast to zero, effectively the first recession that China has had in many decades - Barrons;

  [i]Goldman Sachs [/i] has become the latest bank to cut its China growth forecast, citing the country’s power crunch, now expecting zero gross domestic product growth in the third quarter.

Production has been halted at a number of factories, including some supplying   Apple (ticker: AAPL) and   Tesla (TSLA), due to widespread shortages, partly caused by tight coal supply and increased demand post-Covid lockdowns. Strict emissions targets introduced by Beijing, as part of an effort to fight climate change, are also a factor and have led to local authorities curbing energy use to avoid exceeding limits.  

Goldman Sachs (GS) lowered its third-quarter GDP growth forecast to 0% quarter-over-quarter, from a previous forecast of 1.3%, while cutting its fourth-quarter forecast to 6% from 8.5%. Year-over-year growth forecasts were cut from 5.1% to 4.8% for the third quarter and 4.1% to 3.2% for the fourth.

Actually the reason why they're rapidly cutting coal-fired power station output is because the price of coal has become way too high and power providers are locked into contracts to provide power at prices that are far too cheap. So rather than provide the electricity at a loss they're simply cutting back output.

There's a lot of endemic problems in the Chinese economy beginning to surface and the Communist Party simply doesn't know how to deal with them because they've only ever experienced growth - not recession.
  don_dunstan Dr Beeching

Location: Adelaide proud
The USS Ronald Reagan is in the South China Sea - and China isn't happy - National Interest;

CSG-5 entered the South China Sea on Sept. 24, just weeks after Beijing instituted new maritime regulations that demanded all vessels transiting the waters report course and destination to the Chinese authorities. China now considers nearly the entirety of the South China Sea to be its national waters.

While in the neutral waters, CSG-5 has been conducting fixed and rotary-wing flight operations, maritime strike exercises, anti-submarine operations, and coordinated tactical training.

"We look forward to leveraging our recent out-of-area experience as we return to the South China Sea and our rapidly growing alliances and partnerships dedicated to the Indo-Pacific," said Rear Adm. Will Pennington, commander, Task Force 70, Carrier Strike Group (CSG) 5.

"The deployment of Ronald Reagan carrier strike group to the Middle East and rapid seamless return to the Pacific highlight the flexibility and responsiveness of a premier maritime force and the power and reach of global coalitions dedicated to the stability provided by international law and rules based order," Rear Adm. Pennington added.

The strike group will also work with its network of partners and alliances to ensure maritime security and a free flow of commerce in the Indo-Pacific, the Navy announced.

Apparently the nations bordering the South China Sea actually want western powers patrolling the area in order to keep the sea lanes open. The irony of Vietnam actually welcoming the presence of a US aircraft carrier in their waters...
  303gunner Train Controller

Well, this is a "Curious Co-incidence".

https://7news.com.au/technology/space/china-long-march-3b-rocket-launch-lines-up-with-flying-object-seen-over-sydney--c-4087168

How peculiar that China sees the need to launch a "Communication Satellite" using a low orbit  Missile over Australia's Eastern States. Was it intended as a demonstration to show that Chinese Missiles can easily reach the south eastern population centres?
They've long been able to reach our shores with their missiles - not sure why they'd need the additional threat of a low-orbit satellite.
don_dunstan
Yes, they have, but they have never before conducted a missile test in our direction and plainly demonstrated that capability to the general population, rather than to a few select Defence Analysts. The satellite payload is irrelevant, the fact they might want to show they can send a missile to us in 30 minutes with "whatever" on board might be taken as a not-so-subtle hint towards our "meddling" in their affairs.
  Aaron The Ghost of George Stephenson

Location: University of Adelaide SA
Don, I don’t think it’s the Ronald Reagan that’s in the South China Sea, it might be, she’s on her way home from the Arabian Sea after supporting withdrawal from Afghanistan - but the Chinese should be more upset with the Carl Vinson carrier strike group. They’ve been there for weeks, along with the Royal Navy operating HMS Queen Elizabeth and her supporting carrier strike group. The HMS Queen Elizabeth group is now to the south hanging out with our friends in the Philippines.

Yes, pretty much all of Asia with the exclusion of China and DPRK are more than happy to have them there - even DPRK probably doesn’t care because they don’t know that ‘the west’ is there.
  justapassenger Minister for Railways

Well, this is a "Curious Co-incidence".

https://7news.com.au/technology/space/china-long-march-3b-rocket-launch-lines-up-with-flying-object-seen-over-sydney--c-4087168

How peculiar that China sees the need to launch a "Communication Satellite" using a low orbit  Missile over Australia's Eastern States. Was it intended as a demonstration to show that Chinese Missiles can easily reach the south eastern population centres?
303gunner
What other direction should China launch to achieve a sun synchronous orbit?

That's not remotely close to the trajectory which would be used in the event of an ICBM attack on Australia.
  Aaron The Ghost of George Stephenson

Location: University of Adelaide SA
I have had it confirmed, the CVN Ronald Reagan and CVN Carl Vinson are both their strike groups are operating in the vicinity of China right now.

HMS Queen Elizabeth is just departing Guam for home having completed her operations in the area too.
  don_dunstan Dr Beeching

Location: Adelaide proud
I have had it confirmed, the CVN Ronald Reagan and CVN Carl Vinson are both their strike groups are operating in the vicinity of China right now.

HMS Queen Elizabeth is just departing Guam for home having completed her operations in the area too.
Aaron
I'm surprised the usual suspects haven't complained about what a provocation it is doing freedom of navigation exercises in international waters.

Meanwhile problems persist with the supply of electricity in China due to the extremely high coal price at the moment - they might have to lift their ban on Australian coal to keep the lights on - News.com.au

China’s power crisis, which has seen rolling blackouts and factories shut down, and warnings that its coal supply is only enough to last for another two weeks may mean the country is forced to crawl back to Australian supplies.

More than two-thirds of China’s electricity comes from coal-fired plants and while 90 per cent is supplied from domestic production, the country used to import $1 billion worth of Australian coal.

However, earlier this year amid increasing diplomatic tensions between the two countries, China banned imports of Australia’s third biggest export.

Now it’s facing coal shortages that would be difficult to meet demands by ramping up domestic production at short notice, which means China will be looking outside to bring in more coal.

With coal in short supply globally some experts believe that it could force Beijing to ease its ban on buying up the Aussie commodity.

I've never understood the 'greenwash' that Volvo has been coming out with recently about moving to 'all electric' cars - many models are made at their Geely partner plant in China and that nation is the single biggest carbon emitter on the face of the planet.
  Carnot Minister for Railways

India has bought much of the coal that China refused to buy.

Incidentally, LNG prices are soaring. $30+ per million BTUs which is equivalent to US$200 per barrel of oil... (Korea and Japan being the main drivers of demand)

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