The Aussie political economy II

 
Topic moved from The Lounge by dthead on 17 Feb 2022 16:37
  michaelgm Chief Commissioner

The US Federal Reserve hiked official rates last night by 0.75% which is the highest individual rate rise since 1994. It takes the official US cash rate to 1.5%-1.75% range - Reserve Chair Bernanke has released a statement saying corrective action was urgently needed since the official inflation rate of 8.6% was more than four times the Reserve's inflation target of two percent. It probably won't be the last rate rise this year -

This will increase pressure here on the RBA's Glenn Stevens to hike aggressively next month when the RBA sits to decide the current cash rate here in Australia, presently 0.85%.
don_dunstan
Read that the RBA will go to 1.5% next month, if so, mortgage stress will cease to be a buzz phrase. Mortgage pain is coming.

Sponsored advertisement

  don_dunstan Oliver Bullied, CME

Location: Adelaide proud
Lucy Turnbull proves yet again that the Turnbulls don't understand a thing about the world outside of their little bubble - News.com.au;

Mrs Turnbull, who spent years advocating the plan as chief of the Greater Sydney Commission until 2020, argued the development of the suburbs would help them become “climate change-resistant”.

“We’ve got to shift the way we conceptualise suburbia to be more climate change-resistant, more human friendly, more walkable, more cyclable, more medium density,” she told the Sydney Morning Herald in a joint interview with Mr Turnbull.

“If you think about, say, terrace houses in Paddington and Glebe, they were conceived and built long before there were planning regulations, but they are some of the most attractive, valuable property in Australia.

“So why can’t we relearn what we’ve somehow unlearnt with the advent of automobile dependence and [ensure] that green urban domain is better distributed throughout the city?”

Lucy Turnbull said planning controls in the growth areas of south-west Sydney in particular had discouraged the creation of environmentally friendly, medium-density suburbs similar to those in the inner city.

“We’ve got to flip what is business as usual on its head and create that medium density [housing], walkability to schools and shops, more tree canopy cover ... I’d really like the same amenity as you get in the inner city of the eastern harbour city to be adaptively transferred to western Sydney.”

The insinuation Western Sydney needed an overhaul didn’t go over well with local politicians and residents.

I mean, all they have to do is be rich, have more public transport like the nice bit of Sydney and live in 19th century terrace houses like the eastern suburbs people do and all their mobility problems will be solved. Right?
  ANR Chief Commissioner

Will we reach a 22% (credit card style) interest rate that we had under a previous ALP government long ago?

Must we have a recession?
  don_dunstan Oliver Bullied, CME

Location: Adelaide proud
Will we reach a 22% (credit card style) interest rate that we had under a previous ALP government long ago?

Must we have a recession?
ANR
I'm afraid Labor is in power across most of the nation at the moment so yes, we have to have a severe recession.
  don_dunstan Oliver Bullied, CME

Location: Adelaide proud
New Immigration Minister Andrew Giles says that the skilled visa system (amongst others) needs to be rapidly sped up to allow people to come here and work much easier - SBS News;

Immigration Minister Andrew Giles told SBS News: “In terms of the extraordinary delays we’ve seen in visa processing, this is a real priority for me and an Albanese Labor government.

“Whether it relates to humanitarian, family reunion, or skilled visas, we need to do much better.”

He’s sought advice on addressing the challenges faced by the department as a “matter of urgency”.

The department is facing an $875 million budget cut, based on the Morrison government’s March update.

They're reacting to pressure from the visa printing industry that wants "skilled" and "education" visas issues post-COVID as fast as the government can possibly issue them:

Andrew McKellar, chief executive of the Australian Chamber of Commerce and Industry, said businesses are reporting “significant barriers” to attracting skilled workers.

“Widespread skill shortages continue to be the most pressing challenge facing business, constraining their ability to operate at full capacity,” he told SBS News.

He cited "protracted processing times, excessive costs, confusing compliance measures and compulsory labour market testing" as challenges for employers.

A spokesperson for the department said it "is undertaking priority assessments of visas to assist economic recovery."

It was Labor under Gillard that issued skilled visas for hamburger cooks to come from Nepal to Australia - and Labor is doing exactly the same thing again with bringing in Engineers, Social Workers and a variety of occupations that we simply are not in short supply of.

Again, anyone who thought that Labor was going to be in any way different to the Liberals with regards to tubro-charged mass-migration is about to be sorely disappointed. And don't forget, this is all in the middle of a well documented housing crisis that is seeing people living in tents and caravan parks in our capital cities.

I really don't understand why Labor always makes growth a priority over the living standards and housing of the very poorest Australians, it's like the hate the very people they say that they're going to protect - that on top of giving their unskilled and semi-skilled jobs away to foreigners.
  don_dunstan Oliver Bullied, CME

Location: Adelaide proud
The ASX looks set to finish the week in bear territory after dropping 2.5% on opening - News.com.au;

In what looks to be a very difficult Friday, Australian shares have dropped 2.5 per cent in the first 30 minutes of trading as rising interest rates in the US, the UK and Switzerland in the last 24 hours stoked recession concerns.

The Australian market had steadied after Tuesday’s bloodbath, but a small amount of optimism looks to have vanished this morning — with the top 200 companies on the ASX now worth 8.36 per cent less than they were just five days ago.

All sectors are lower — with tech faring the worst. That sector has dropped 3.8 per cent as shares in Afterpay-owner Block sank 7.2 per cent in early trade.

The big four banks are all in the red - CBA falling 3.3 per cent, ANZ down 2.2 per cent, NAB 2.8 per cent and Westpac 2 per cent.

A lot of confidence has vanished - and "buy now pay later" services like Afterpay are continuing to plunge with the parent company Block Capital (SQ2) losing 7% on opening this morning due to their continuing woes. Again, who would have thought that a company based on lending people who have been denied most forms of credit could possibly end up in trouble!

APRA has also reminded banks recently that they have to take into account VET-FEE-HELP (HECS) loans and Afterpay style loans in assessing eligibility for loans so that's probably also putting people off using those services. From Finder;

If you're applying for a home loan, lenders must consider buy now pay later (BNPL) debt and HECS-HELP debt when determining how much you can borrow.

That sounds obvious, but it's something the Australian Prudential Regulation Authority (APRA) felt necessary to clarify.

In a letter to lenders today, APRA announced changes to the lending standards banks and lenders must follow. Included in the letter is clarification around how lenders treat HECS-HELP and BNPL debts:

"To ensure a consistent approach is taken across industry, APRA has clarified below that HECS-HELP loans and debt incurred through BNPL schemes would be included in DTI ratios."
  RedEyeExpress Junior Train Controller

Location: Melbourne
Don, Lucy Turnbull: One of the worst thimgs you can do for the climate is introducing 'medium density' in established areas, creating urban heat islands with acres of concrete and masonry.

Andrew Giles: One "significant barrier" to attracting skilled workers is not offering pay and conditions good enough to attract local workers!
  Carnot Minister for Railways

2/3rds of Americans live paycheck to paycheck. Back in 2019 the Australian figure was 46% and I imagine it's a lot higher today:

https://www.cnbc.com/2022/05/11/two-thirds-of-americans-live-paycheck-to-paycheck-as-inflation-climbs.html

It's not sustainable.
  don_dunstan Oliver Bullied, CME

Location: Adelaide proud
The NSW government announces its own "shared equity" scheme on top of the Albanese government's proposed shared equity scheme - ABC;

Frontline workers, single parents and older single people will be eligible for a shared-equity scheme to assist in buying a home under a NSW government plan.

The state government has committed $780.4 million to the program, which closely resembles a policy brought to the federal election by the Albanese government.

It would see the state government contribute up to 40 per cent of equity for a new home, or 30 per cent for an existing property.

Teachers, nurses, police officers, single parents and single people aged 50 years and over would be eligible for the shared-equity scheme.

Premier Dominic Perrottet said NSW's scheme would run as a two-year trial and work "hand-in-glove" with the federal government's program.

"We want to make sure that people right across New South Wales have that opportunity because we know home ownership is crucial to growing wealth," he said.

All these schemes are doing is pushing the cost of housing UP for the people who are not participating in them, they're not doing anything for housing affordability for people who are not eligible for them. They're also a substantial moral hazard because you're exposing taxpayers to shifts in the housing market that might lose them money.

Why not just build houses to rent or sell cheaply to "frontline workers" instead? That was what Menzies, Playford etc did in the fifites and it worked really well.
  Carnot Minister for Railways

I had a fascinating discussion with someone who works in a large food processing plant that's desperate for workers.

They recently hired 40 locals (via job agencies).
Only half bothered to turn up.
About half of these then failed the medical.
And only one person is still working there after 2 weeks.

It's not physically demanding work (basically involves pressing a few buttons and paying attention).

So they're hiring over a hundred workers from overseas, who in their experience are reliable and hardworking.
  michaelgm Chief Commissioner

I had a fascinating discussion with someone who works in a large food processing plant that's desperate for workers.

They recently hired 40 locals (via job agencies).
Only half bothered to turn up.
About half of these then failed the medical.
And only one person is still working there after 2 weeks.

It's not physically demanding work (basically involves pressing a few buttons and paying attention).

So they're hiring over a hundred workers from overseas, who in their experience are reliable and hardworking.
Carnot
One out of forty in two weeks is a pi$$ poor result.
May I ask,
Where the job agencies labour hire? (I’ve worked two short term jobs via labour hire and no medical was involved)
Where they permanent positions, ie, not casual?
How much $$ was being offered?
Curious if a reflection on the of quality candidates or the T&Cs of the job itself.
Cheers.
  Carnot Minister for Railways

I had a fascinating discussion with someone who works in a large food processing plant that's desperate for workers.

They recently hired 40 locals (via job agencies).
Only half bothered to turn up.
About half of these then failed the medical.
And only one person is still working there after 2 weeks.

It's not physically demanding work (basically involves pressing a few buttons and paying attention).

So they're hiring over a hundred workers from overseas, who in their experience are reliable and hardworking.
One out of forty in two weeks is a pi$$ poor result.
May I ask,
Where the job agencies labour hire? (I’ve worked two short term jobs via labour hire and no medical was involved)
Where they permanent positions, ie, not casual?
How much $$ was being offered?
Curious if a reflection on the of quality candidates or the T&Cs of the job itself.
Cheers.
michaelgm
Sure.
- Jobseeker, not labour hire.
- Yes, Permanent positions.
- Pay above minimum wage.
  michaelgm Chief Commissioner

Thanks, Carnot. Suggesting quality of candidates!
  don_dunstan Oliver Bullied, CME

Location: Adelaide proud
"Didn't pass the medical" - encompasses a huge range of things you wouldn't normally expect, including over 45 or 50 years of age, previous worker's compensation claim (even if that's been resolved), any kind of medical condition that you're taking medication for including skin conditions, heart problems, etc etc.

Lots of people want to work but many employers won't touch them with a barge pole simply because they're not perfect - I've worked in disability employment before many moons ago and discrimination against any kind of disability is still rife in our society. In particular "previous workers' comp" was an absolute job-killer - almost impossible to find another job once you've had any kind of compensable claim.
  Carnot Minister for Railways

"Didn't pass the medical" - encompasses a huge range of things you wouldn't normally expect, including over 45 or 50 years of age, previous worker's compensation claim (even if that's been resolved), any kind of medical condition that you're taking medication for including skin conditions, heart problems, etc etc.

Lots of people want to work but many employers won't touch them with a barge pole simply because they're not perfect - I've worked in disability employment before many moons ago and discrimination against any kind of disability is still rife in our society. In particular "previous workers' comp" was an absolute job-killer - almost impossible to find another job once you've had any kind of compensable claim.
don_dunstan
Quite possibly.  Another issue mentioned was transportation to and from the factory, and the fact that poor public transport in the region contributes as well.
  michaelgm Chief Commissioner

"Didn't pass the medical" - encompasses a huge range of things you wouldn't normally expect, including over 45 or 50 years of age, previous worker's compensation claim (even if that's been resolved), any kind of medical condition that you're taking medication for including skin conditions, heart problems, etc etc.

Lots of people want to work but many employers won't touch them with a barge pole simply because they're not perfect - I've worked in disability employment before many moons ago and discrimination against any kind of disability is still rife in our society. In particular "previous workers' comp" was an absolute job-killer - almost impossible to find another job once you've had any kind of compensable claim.
don_dunstan
Agree with your medical statement. However using Carnots example and excluding medical eliminations, two weeks later, a 5% successful retention is dismal.
  RTT_Rules Oliver Bullied, CME

Location: Dubai UAE
The NSW government announces its own "shared equity" scheme on top of the Albanese government's proposed shared equity scheme - ABC;

Frontline workers, single parents and older single people will be eligible for a shared-equity scheme to assist in buying a home under a NSW government plan.

The state government has committed $780.4 million to the program, which closely resembles a policy brought to the federal election by the Albanese government.

It would see the state government contribute up to 40 per cent of equity for a new home, or 30 per cent for an existing property.

Teachers, nurses, police officers, single parents and single people aged 50 years and over would be eligible for the shared-equity scheme.

Premier Dominic Perrottet said NSW's scheme would run as a two-year trial and work "hand-in-glove" with the federal government's program.

"We want to make sure that people right across New South Wales have that opportunity because we know home ownership is crucial to growing wealth," he said.

All these schemes are doing is pushing the cost of housing UP for the people who are not participating in them, they're not doing anything for housing affordability for people who are not eligible for them. They're also a substantial moral hazard because you're exposing taxpayers to shifts in the housing market that might lose them money.

Why not just build houses to rent or sell cheaply to "frontline workers" instead? That was what Menzies, Playford etc did in the fifites and it worked really well.
don_dunstan
Govt has done the slum lord bit before, failure.

As for building a cheap house, considering most houses are bought existing (its not the 1960's anymore), not really an option unless you want front line workers to have little choice on where they live or what standard of housing they want. Reeks of the whole Landcom housing estates of the past wheer everything in the street is substandard to reduce costs.

Best let people choose where they want to live.
  don_dunstan Oliver Bullied, CME

Location: Adelaide proud
Agree with your medical statement. However using Carnots example and excluding medical eliminations, two weeks later, a 5% successful retention is dismal.
michaelgm
We don't know the full story is my short answer.
Govt has done the slum lord bit before, failure.
RTT_Rules
You don't know the full story is my short answer.

Menzies built over 10,000 houses in private estates and then used the state governments to distribute them to returned soldiers etc. He did NOT build "slums" as you so charmingly call them.

You really have a hate on for the Australian poor don't you. Yet anyone  - ANYONE - could find themselves the victim of circumstances. An accident at work, fall off a ladder at home, a sudden onset of mental illness - all things that could happen to you that are completely beyond your control and you could find yourself in that situation.

Just sayin'.
  don_dunstan Oliver Bullied, CME

Location: Adelaide proud
Best let people choose where they want to live.
RTT_Rules
Not Dubai. Yuck.
  Mr. Lane Chief Commissioner

Best let people choose where they want to live.
RTT_Rules

They can't afford to. That's the problem.
  RTT_Rules Oliver Bullied, CME

Location: Dubai UAE
Best let people choose where they want to live.

They can't afford to. That's the problem.
Mr. Lane
My point was, they get reasonable assiestance where they want to live

However we all know all this does is throw more petrol on the fire and doesn't really solve any problem.
  RTT_Rules Oliver Bullied, CME

Location: Dubai UAE
Best let people choose where they want to live.
Not Dubai. Yuck.
don_dunstan
Good, keep prices lower here.
  RTT_Rules Oliver Bullied, CME

Location: Dubai UAE
Agree with your medical statement. However using Carnots example and excluding medical eliminations, two weeks later, a 5% successful retention is dismal.
We don't know the full story is my short answer.
Govt has done the slum lord bit before, failure.
You don't know the full story is my short answer.

Menzies built over 10,000 houses in private estates and then used the state governments to distribute them to returned soldiers etc. He did NOT build "slums" as you so charmingly call them.

You really have a hate on for the Australian poor don't you. Yet anyone  - ANYONE - could find themselves the victim of circumstances. An accident at work, fall off a ladder at home, a sudden onset of mental illness - all things that could happen to you that are completely beyond your control and you could find yourself in that situation.

Just sayin'.
don_dunstan
So what do you plan to do?

Where in the Sydney basin to you plan to build these govt non-slums? Where is all this land?

Don't hate the poor Don, just realistic
- Govt funded housing is historically slum or if you prefer becomes less desirable places to live.
- Govt funded housing is often built to lower standard
- The problem is the high cost of real estate, funding part of the population to compete with each other will only push others out and prices up.
  don_dunstan Oliver Bullied, CME

Location: Adelaide proud
So what do you plan to do?

Where in the Sydney basin to you plan to build these govt non-slums? Where is all this land?

Don't hate the poor Don, just realistic
- Govt funded housing is historically slum or if you prefer becomes less desirable places to live.
- Govt funded housing is often built to lower standard
- The problem is the high cost of real estate, funding part of the population to compete with each other will only push others out and prices up.
RTT_Rules
You don't want poor Australians to have social housing because you personally look down your nose at it.

Got it.
  don_dunstan Oliver Bullied, CME

Location: Adelaide proud
Why is Lisa Wilkinson actively seeking to prejudice the upcoming Brittany Higgins rape trial? News.com.au;

A decision whether to delay the trial of the man accused of raping Brittany Higgins will be handed down on Tuesday afternoon, after the court heard concerns a speech at the Logies had “obliterated” the line between allegation and guilt.

Bruce Lehrmann has pleaded not guilty to sexually assaulting Ms Higgins inside Parliament House in 2019.

He is due to stand trial in the ACT Supreme Court on Monday, June 27.

But lawyers representing Mr Lehrmann this morning launched another stay application.

If successful, it would delay the trial.

“Your honour, this speech did not need to be made,” defence barrister Steve Whybrow said.

During a hearing on Tuesday morning, ACT Chief Justice Lucy McCallum said she had made a mistake in not prohibiting publication around the case.

She slammed the media for its reporting of Ms Wilkinson’s speech and warned the distinction between allegation and guilt had been “obliterated”.

“I trusted the press … you were right and I was wrong,” she told the court.

According to the defence counsel, the concern is Ms Wilkinson’s speech - so close to the trial - could impact on the jury.

The court also heard Ms Wilkinson would be a witness at the trial.

Wilkinson has milked this thing - and continues to milk it - for all its worth. Watch her drop Higgins like a hot potato once the trial is finally over.

Sponsored advertisement

Subscribers: RTT_Rules

Display from: