It's the economy, stupid!

 
  don_dunstan The Ghost of George Stephenson

Location: Adelaide proud
Interesting article in the Australian  from last Thursday pointing out that Christopher Pyne as Defense Minister never bothered to write in to the Attack Class Project a specific amount of work to be done here or a compulsory level of Australian-made content. So the French contractors are quite entitled to import equipment rather than make it here because Pyne and his minions didn't write it into the contract:

Mr Pyne, who works as a defence adviser for consulting firm EY, said in 2017 that up to 90 per cent of work on the subs could be done in Australia, but did not insist on a specific Australian content target in the agreement with the majority French government-owned company.

He stood by that approach on Thursday, telling The Australian it would remove competition from the process “and without competition, the navy is liable to receive a substandard product”.

But he said 50 per cent local content was “not satisfactory”, and the government should insist on at least 60 per cent. “The government needs to hold their feet to the fire to ensure they fulfil their obligation,” he said.

Labor defence spokesman Richard Marles said if Mr Pyne wanted to ensure sufficient opportunities for Australian companies, he should have mandated a target.

“If Christopher has such strong feelings about Australian industry content then he would have ensured there was a commitment of a percentage of local content in the contracts he was responsible for signing,” he said. “The Collins-class (submarine) which was initiated under a former Labor government, had a target of 70 per cent, and it was exceeded.”

French contractors Naval have no such obligation, Mr. Pyne - you should know that, you signed off on the contract yourself. Unless you're now saying that you didn't read the contract?

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  don_dunstan The Ghost of George Stephenson

Location: Adelaide proud
General Motors is finished with Australia and will ditch the Holden brand at the end of this year. Not only that but GM will not make right-hand drive cars suitable for Australia any longer - so we'll no longer have General Motors cars sold in this country at all any more. From News.com.au -

The Holden brand will disappear at the end of the year after its owner General Motors announced it will no longer make cars suitable for Australian roads.

The move comes just three years after local manufacturing ended with the shuttering of the Holden plant at Elizabeth in Adelaide’s northern suburbs.

Late last year the company also announced it would stop selling its most iconic car, the Commodore.

General Motors announced on Monday it would stop producing right hand drive vehicles.
  Valvegear Dr Beeching

Location: Norda Fittazroy
French contractors Naval have no such obligation, Mr. Pyne - you should know that, you signed off on the contract yourself. Unless you're now saying that you didn't read the contract?
don_dunstan
He couldn't; it contained a lot of very big words, and the only big word Pyne knows is delicatessen.
  SinickleBird Assistant Commissioner

Location: Qantas Club at Mudgee International Airport
Perhaps we will change the road rules so that we drive (left-hand-drive) on the right.

Good little employment generator - changing signage and traffic lights.

Paid for by traffic tickets inflicted on motorists during the changeover.
  Carnot Minister for Railways

I'm not at all surprised about GM/Holden pulling the pin.  Very sad about the several hundred workers at Port Melbourne and Lang Lang losing their jobs.

I can't think of a more rapid decline of an automotive brand in Australia, except for maybe BMC/Leyland in the 1970s?
  Valvegear Dr Beeching

Location: Norda Fittazroy
I think the decline is more marked in the case of Holden, because it was up there for so long after starting in 1948, and had become an absolute Australian icon.
BMC/Leyland was a flash in the pan by comparison.
  RTT_Rules Oliver Bullied, CME

Location: Dubai UAE
Perhaps we will change the road rules so that we drive (left-hand-drive) on the right.

Good little employment generator - changing signage and traffic lights.

Paid for by traffic tickets inflicted on motorists during the changeover.
SinickleBird
I can tell you there are alot of Aussie expats around the world that would love this as this way we can bring home our cars from OS for ALOT less than buying in Aust.
  RTT_Rules Oliver Bullied, CME

Location: Dubai UAE
 Very sad about the several hundred workers at Port Melbourne and Lang Lang losing their jobs.

Carnot
Agree
  don_dunstan The Ghost of George Stephenson

Location: Adelaide proud
Perhaps we will change the road rules so that we drive (left-hand-drive) on the right.

Good little employment generator - changing signage and traffic lights.

Paid for by traffic tickets inflicted on motorists during the changeover.
I can tell you there are alot of Aussie expats around the world that would love this as this way we can bring home our cars from OS for ALOT less than buying in Aust.
RTT_Rules
Do you still stand by your assertion that the Attack Class submarine project will provide 20,000 jobs for Australians?
  don_dunstan The Ghost of George Stephenson

Location: Adelaide proud
Chinese state media warns that "austerity is coming" after the corona virus outbreak - ZeroHedge:

As further confirmation that China may be about to shock the stock market and its stimulus junkies, China's Global Times propaganda outlet wrote on Sunday that "with the Chinese economy taking a major hit from the outbreak of the novel coronavirus pneumonia (COVID-19), the central government appears to pursue fiscal austerity as part of the efforts to pull through the difficult times."...

The Chinese government isn't going to stimulate its way out of this mess, we had better get used to this idea.
  don_dunstan The Ghost of George Stephenson

Location: Adelaide proud
Apple cuts earning guidance and says that deliveries of the iPhone will be disrupted because of the coronavirus (Covid-19) problem in China - ZeroHedge;

Our quarterly guidance issued on January 28, 2020 reflected the best information available at the time as well as our best estimates about the pace of return to work following the end of the extended Chinese New Year holiday on February 10. Work is starting to resume around the country, but we are experiencing a slower return to normal conditions than we had anticipated. As a result, we do not expect to meet the revenue guidance we provided for the March quarter due to two main factors.

The first is that worldwide iPhone® supply will be temporarily constrained. While our iPhone manufacturing partner sites are located outside the Hubei province — and while all of these facilities have reopened — they are ramping up more slowly than we had anticipated. The health and well-being of every person who helps make these products possible is our paramount priority, and we are working in close consultation with our suppliers and public health experts as this ramp continues. These iPhone supply shortages will temporarily affect revenues worldwide.

The second is that demand for our products within China has been affected. All of our stores in China and many of our partner stores have been closed. Additionally, stores that are open have been operating at reduced hours and with very low customer traffic. We are gradually reopening our retail stores and will continue to do so as steadily and safely as we can. Our corporate offices and contact centers in China are open, and our online stores have remained open throughout.
  Carnot Minister for Railways

Chinese tourist numbers have dropped over 80% in Vic now.  I'm hearing reports that supplies of medical equipment worldwide are going to be severely constrained as well.  And not just face masks.
  don_dunstan The Ghost of George Stephenson

Location: Adelaide proud
Chinese tourist numbers have dropped over 80% in Vic now.  I'm hearing reports that supplies of medical equipment worldwide are going to be severely constrained as well.  And not just face masks.
Carnot
I went to the Adelaide Central Markets last week - which incorporates our China-town here. It was deathly quiet but I must say there was no shortage of Anglo and other people there - just a distinct lack of ethnic Chinese.

Then you have idiots like Labor's Multicultural Affairs spokesman Andrew Giles saying that for some reason white people are to blame for not patronising Chinese business districts or restaurants - and calling that racist - SBS;

“There is a creeping normalisation of hate and racism in Australia," he said.

“It’s time for a new national anti-racism campaign.

“If we fail to take action now, we may end up with more racism, more violence and a country that no longer resembles what we love most about Australia.”...

...[He] travelled to the east Melbourne suburb of Box Hill last week, well known for its high concentration of people of Chinese-Australian heritage.

He said some businesses had experienced a 70 per cent drop: “no doubt because of fear and misinformation about the coronavirus.”

Open your eyes, Andrew - it's not white people staying away from those areas - it's the local Chinese people themselves.
  RTT_Rules Oliver Bullied, CME

Location: Dubai UAE
Perhaps we will change the road rules so that we drive (left-hand-drive) on the right.

Good little employment generator - changing signage and traffic lights.

Paid for by traffic tickets inflicted on motorists during the changeover.
I can tell you there are alot of Aussie expats around the world that would love this as this way we can bring home our cars from OS for ALOT less than buying in Aust.
Do you still stand by your assertion that the Attack Class submarine project will provide 20,000 jobs for Australians?
don_dunstan
What do you think they will do, deliver fully assembled modules from OS and simply weld them together a dozen guys?
  don_dunstan The Ghost of George Stephenson

Location: Adelaide proud
Perhaps we will change the road rules so that we drive (left-hand-drive) on the right.

Good little employment generator - changing signage and traffic lights.

Paid for by traffic tickets inflicted on motorists during the changeover.
I can tell you there are alot of Aussie expats around the world that would love this as this way we can bring home our cars from OS for ALOT less than buying in Aust.
Do you still stand by your assertion that the Attack Class submarine project will provide 20,000 jobs for Australians?
What do you think they will do, deliver fully assembled modules from OS and simply weld them together a dozen guys?
RTT_Rules
The way they're going - yes. It'll arrive already complete from France and the local content will be Effie the cleaning lady giving it the once-over with a mop and bucket.

'Straya. Winning.
  RTT_Rules Oliver Bullied, CME

Location: Dubai UAE
The way they're going - yes. It'll arrive already complete from France and the local content will be Effie the cleaning lady giving it the once-over with a mop and bucket.

'Straya. Winning.
don_dunstan
Funny Don, but unlikely. France is one country where things cost more than here.

I also don't think I said 20,000, more like 10,000. the 20,000 would be from your over inflated fabricated numbers that makes the Australian small diesel subs on a similar price scale to that of a US nuclear hunter class.

At first thought yes I agreed it was stupid not to stipulate local content, something Aust govt have increasingly lost the ability to act on. However, how do you practically set limits for a Sub? You'd have to be an expert at Submarines and the Australian supply chain to know what to say. Vic Govt I believe stlil insists on local content for V/locities, but most of this is based on experience, they have been building V/locties now for nearly 20 years and a century of experience before that.

As I've stated before and I'll state again, the bulk of the fabrication and materials to supply the fabrication will be sourced locally with the exception of exotic alloys. Likewise plumbing, electrics etc with the likely exception of weaponry technology, communications and navigation etc.

There will no doubt be over a few thousand people employed directly on site, up to 100 Frenches on site Managing and Supervising various aspects of the build and dealing with the govt/Navy. There will be a knock on effect of between 3:1 and 5:1 indirect jobs depending on the level and complexity of local sourcing in SA and around the country.

Now I know Don will be getting very excited on this so lets compare, however to build 600,000tpa of aluminium smelting capacity along with power station it took over 12,000 people on site spending $5B of which there are already some existing internal capacity for various components like port etc. To build phase 1 on the site from nothing but sand it and 30% bigger, it took 18,000 people to spend $10B during the mining boom. Then there were the jobs in steel works, concrete plant, various contractors and suppliers supporting the vendors, kids in schools, car yards, mechanics, airlines, hotels, hospitals, govt officials..........have a guess how much beer was drunk? A workers family is dumping $500/wk into the local economy just living and entertainment.

Also the Navy will increase its presence in Adelaide, for the next 40 years!

Now I know a sub is not an aluminium smelter, a smelter is fairly straightforward in comparison and spread out so you can build alot quickly but a sub costs a few billion a piece so the money has to go somewhere.
  Aaron The Ghost of George Stephenson

Location: University of Adelaide SA
Further to Don’s point about who’s not spending in ‘Chinatown’.

I am in Sydney at the moment, last night I caught up with a (‘white’) Sydney based mate, he and I were going to go for dinner in Sydney’s Chinatown. My mate’s partner wanted to come along, he’s from Taiwan - so doesn’t really have the best of relationships with China, but he refused to let us visit/eat in Chinatown. Nothing to do with Beijing/Taipei relations but in his words ‘you know, the germs’.

Hence, instead of two ‘white’ guys and a Taiwanese guy dining and drinking in Chinatown, and according to routine, spending three or four hundred bucks we instead ate at the Opera House and spent approximately a million bucks instead - fun times!
  don_dunstan The Ghost of George Stephenson

Location: Adelaide proud
The way they're going - yes. It'll arrive already complete from France and the local content will be Effie the cleaning lady giving it the once-over with a mop and bucket.

'Straya. Winning.
Funny Don, but unlikely. France is one country where things cost more than here.
RTT_Rules
But they already have the production capacity to build the entire thing there. So why should they bother to re-establish those engineering processes here? That's why the "local content" has been going from "over 90%" to (now) less than 50%. I wouldn't be surprised if it falls even further to maybe 20% or less because they're not contractually obliged to actually do anything in relation to local content - so they'll probably bring more and more equipment from overseas as a cost-savings measure. And why shouldn't they? It was that idiot Pyne who didn't specify local jobs in the contract probably knowing full well that the bad news wouldn't come out until long after he'd left office.
I also don't think I said 20,000, more like 10,000. the 20,000 would be from your over inflated fabricated numbers that makes the Australian small diesel subs on a similar price scale to that of a US nuclear hunter class.
RTT_Rules
Yeah you did. Here it is from the horse's mouth, 11 January 2020 11:35pm in the "Holden Commodore axed" thread:
Thats $3Bpa which at say $150k per salary = 20,000 jobs direct and indirect.
RTT_Rules
I really love it how you tried to blame me for your own mistake - "from your inflated fabricated numbers".

The rest of what you've written is just supposition and opinion, as usual. The same as the 20,000 jobs quote - you really don't know, you're just guessing. Why on earth you continue to think this grossly expensive boondoggle is a good idea is totally beyond me, even the Department of Defence secretly wants it cancelled for being over-budget and delayed already even though the first submarine won't roll off the line until 2034 - ABC.

According to the report, the Federal Government's handpicked advisory group told Defence in 2018 to "consider alternatives to the current plan", when negotiations over a key contract appeared to be breaking down.

The Commonwealth and Naval Group, chosen to build Australia's future submarines, were at loggerheads over the Strategic Partnering Agreement, which would provide a framework for the complex and costly project.

Behind the scenes, the Naval Shipbuilding Advisory Board told Defence to start drawing up alternatives should the negotiations fail.

According to the auditors, Defence began examining whether it could extend the life of the existing Collins-class submarines and "the time this would allow to develop a new acquisition strategy for the Future Submarine if necessary".
  RTT_Rules Oliver Bullied, CME

Location: Dubai UAE
Further to Don’s point about who’s not spending in ‘Chinatown’.

I am in Sydney at the moment, last night I caught up with a (‘white’) Sydney based mate, he and I were going to go for dinner in Sydney’s Chinatown. My mate’s partner wanted to come along, he’s from Taiwan - so doesn’t really have the best of relationships with China, but he refused to let us visit/eat in Chinatown. Nothing to do with Beijing/Taipei relations but in his words ‘you know, the germs’.

Hence, instead of two ‘white’ guys and a Taiwanese guy dining and drinking in Chinatown, and according to routine, spending three or four hundred bucks we instead ate at the Opera House and spent approximately a million bucks instead - fun times!
Aaron
As I'm married into the direct decedents of Genghis Khan I can saw with authority that we both know that part of the world is the more, lets say "discriminatory" for the most at times reasons, including the reason my MIL refused to marry a Chinese anything and moved to Australia as soon as she finished her education. Something us "whities" will never get away from without it being splashed across the front page of the media. The only germophobes worse than Chinese are the Japanese.
  RTT_Rules Oliver Bullied, CME

Location: Dubai UAE
The way they're going - yes. It'll arrive already complete from France and the local content will be Effie the cleaning lady giving it the once-over with a mop and bucket.

'Straya. Winning.
Funny Don, but unlikely. France is one country where things cost more than here.
But they already have the production capacity to build the entire thing there. So why should they bother to re-establish those engineering processes here? That's why the "local content" has been going from "over 90%" to (now) less than 50%. I wouldn't be surprised if it falls even further to maybe 20% or less because they're not contractually obliged to actually do anything in relation to local content - so they'll probably bring more and more equipment from overseas as a cost-savings measure. And why shouldn't they? It was that idiot Pyne who didn't specify local jobs in the contract probably knowing full well that the bad news wouldn't come out until long after he'd left office.
I also don't think I said 20,000, more like 10,000. the 20,000 would be from your over inflated fabricated numbers that makes the Australian small diesel subs on a similar price scale to that of a US nuclear hunter class.
Yeah you did. Here it is from the horse's mouth, 11 January 2020 11:35pm in the "Holden Commodore axed" thread:
Thats $3Bpa which at say $150k per salary = 20,000 jobs direct and indirect.
I really love it how you tried to blame me for your own mistake - "from your inflated fabricated numbers".

The rest of what you've written is just supposition and opinion, as usual. The same as the 20,000 jobs quote - you really don't know, you're just guessing. Why on earth you continue to think this grossly expensive boondoggle is a good idea is totally beyond me, even the Department of Defence secretly wants it cancelled for being over-budget and delayed already even though the first submarine won't roll off the line until 2034 - ABC.

According to the report, the Federal Government's handpicked advisory group told Defence in 2018 to "consider alternatives to the current plan", when negotiations over a key contract appeared to be breaking down.

The Commonwealth and Naval Group, chosen to build Australia's future submarines, were at loggerheads over the Strategic Partnering Agreement, which would provide a framework for the complex and costly project.

Behind the scenes, the Naval Shipbuilding Advisory Board told Defence to start drawing up alternatives should the negotiations fail.

According to the auditors, Defence began examining whether it could extend the life of the existing Collins-class submarines and "the time this would allow to develop a new acquisition strategy for the Future Submarine if necessary".
don_dunstan
So you tell us how many jobs will be created Don?
  don_dunstan The Ghost of George Stephenson

Location: Adelaide proud
So you tell us how many jobs will be created Don?
RTT_Rules
I've already told you, the local job created will be Effie the cleaner who will get her mop and bucket and give the fully-imported submarine the once over after it arrives here from France.
  RTT_Rules Oliver Bullied, CME

Location: Dubai UAE
So you tell us how many jobs will be created Don?
I've already told you, the local job created will be Effie the cleaner who will get her mop and bucket and give the fully-imported submarine the once over after it arrives here from France.
don_dunstan
So basically your clueless and just want to focus on your ongoing general rant about submarines and not get drawn into any significant discussion quoting some white paper that has never been produced, got it!

Probably best to end it here rather than let you start quote submarine prices exceeding that of a nuclear warhead and power US sub or again go one about why the US models won't chosen.
  don_dunstan The Ghost of George Stephenson

Location: Adelaide proud
So you tell us how many jobs will be created Don?
I've already told you, the local job created will be Effie the cleaner who will get her mop and bucket and give the fully-imported submarine the once over after it arrives here from France.
So basically your clueless and just want to focus on your ongoing general rant about submarines and not get drawn into any significant discussion quoting some white paper that has never been produced, got it!
RTT_Rules
Any shred of evidence for your 20,000 jobs assertion? No. Doesn't that come under the category of clueless?

I don't mind admitting I'm wrong on the other hand: There will be exactly TWO jobs created by the Attack Class Submarines project. Effie the cleaner who will give the fully imported French submarine the once over with the Windex when it arrives totally complete from France AND Defense Industry Consultant Christopher Pyne, who will be getting a nice fat six-figure job to thank him for his role in obtaining the contract for said French contractors.

Two, count 'em.
  RTT_Rules Oliver Bullied, CME

Location: Dubai UAE
So you tell us how many jobs will be created Don?
I've already told you, the local job created will be Effie the cleaner who will get her mop and bucket and give the fully-imported submarine the once over after it arrives here from France.
So basically your clueless and just want to focus on your ongoing general rant about submarines and not get drawn into any significant discussion quoting some white paper that has never been produced, got it!
Any shred of evidence for your 20,000 jobs assertion? No. Doesn't that come under the category of clueless?

I don't mind admitting I'm wrong on the other hand: There will be exactly TWO jobs created by the Attack Class Submarines project. Effie the cleaner who will give the fully imported French submarine the once over with the Windex when it arrives totally complete from France AND Defense Industry Consultant Christopher Pyne, who will be getting a nice fat six-figure job to thank him for his role in obtaining the contract for said French contractors.

Two, count 'em.
don_dunstan
Don,
I work in heavy industry and over the years on a number of operational and major project's, one site employed 26,000 people. I've seen the fall out economic benefit these projects create, even with most of the technology actually imported. Hell the job in India almost the entire plant was fabricated in China and shipped to India and yet we still had 26,000 people on site, yes not the most productive but still there. Likewise similar projects but on a smaller scale in Australia. Very noticeable in smaller cities and towns.

You however think Sadie the cleaning lady and her boyfriend will be the only winners and some how $XB will be spent for zero impact on the SA economy. Don, your dreaming......the nice version.

Enjoy your BS Don.
  don_dunstan The Ghost of George Stephenson

Location: Adelaide proud
Don,
I work in heavy industry and over the years on a number of operational and major project's, one site employed 26,000 people. I've seen the fall out economic benefit these projects create, even with most of the technology actually imported. Hell the job in India almost the entire plant was fabricated in China and shipped to India and yet we still had 26,000 people on site, yes not the most productive but still there. Likewise similar projects but on a smaller scale in Australia. Very noticeable in smaller cities and towns.
RTT_Rules
This is not the same sort of project - they're engineering the hull of a submarine here and (apparently) not much else. You can't compare that to a project in India where people work for a fraction of the wages of Australians.
You however think Sadie the cleaning lady and her boyfriend will be the only winners and some how $XB will be spent for zero impact on the SA economy. Don, your dreaming......the nice version. Enjoy your BS Don.
RTT_Rules
You're letting your pathological hatred of me blind you to the realities of this project. You think I'm to blame for posting the truth about what's going on with this thing.

Have you actually read what we've been discussing? I don't think you have - because if you did you'd realise that the promised local jobs and the promised local content is not emerging - the local content likely now to be well below fifty percent according to Naval and in fact it will probably just be the actual hull construction and fit-out in the end. So the assertion that it will be worth 20,000 jobs to our nation is entirely fiction - I know it's incredibly hard for you to admit that you were wrong on this but you were definitely wrong. The number of jobs created will probably be less than 2,000 and even then much of that expertise will probably have to be imported on working visas anyway. It's a far cry from the promised 'jobs for locals' we were told when Pyne signed the contract.

And really, it makes sense for the French to do it that way. Their contract doesn't actually specify a minimum local content level and most of the fittings, equipment, etc are already being made on production lines overseas with existing employees and expertise that will not be easily replicated here. It's the same old story that's been killing Aussie-made for the last 40 years - why should they have to replicate those engineering processes here when they can save money by going off-shore?

You need to stop hating on me because I'm telling the truth about this extremely expensive, inefficient and obsolete boondoggle. I'm just telling it how it is.

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