The North Korea situation

 
  GeoffreyHansen Minister for Railways

Location: In a FAM sleeper
I was looking at the Smart traveller website for South Korea earlier today and I was surprised to see that no travel warning has been issued. I would have thought that the government would be discouraging people from travelling to any country close to North Korea.

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  bingley hall Minister for Railways

Location: Last train to Skaville
I was looking at the Smart traveller website for South Korea earlier today and I was surprised to see that no travel warning has been issued. I would have thought that the government would be discouraging people from travelling to any country close to North Korea.
GeoffreyHansen

A good question for a journo to ask of Julie Bishop.
  YM-Mundrabilla Minister for Railways

Location: Mundrabilla but I'd rather be in Narvik
I was looking at the Smart traveller website for South Korea earlier today and I was surprised to see that no travel warning has been issued. I would have thought that the government would be discouraging people from travelling to any country close to North Korea.

A good question for a journo to ask of Julie Bishop.
bingley hall
Please don't. I am sick and tired of seeing her face mouthing rubbish on TV as it is.
If you asked her whether her name was Julie you would get 20 minutes of blather and be none the wiser at the end.
  RTT_Rules Oliver Bullied, CME

Location: Dubai UAE
[quote=bingley hall][quote]I was looking at the Smart traveller website for South Korea earlier today and I was surprised to see that no travel warning has been issued. I would have thought that the government would be discouraging people from travelling to any country close to North Korea.[/quote]
A good question for a journo to ask of Julie Bishop.[/quote]Smart Traveler is as much political as genuine travel warning and overall traveling to SK is probably safer than staying in Australia, but anyway the above statement is incorrect. There is a travel advice statement.

From Smart Traveler

[ul][color=#000000][size=3][font=Helvetica Neue", Helvetica, Arial, sans-serif][left][li][color=#4b4c57][size=2][font=Helvetica Neue", HelveticaNeue, Helvetica, Arial, sans-serif][i]Relations between the ROK and the Democratic People's Republic of Korea (DPRK) remains tense. The DPRK has conducted underground nuclear tests and ballistic missile tests, further aggravating the situation on the Peninsula. Further provocations by the DPRK or reactions by neighbouring countries, including the ROK, cannot be ruled out. [b][u]Australians in the ROK should monitor developments closely due to the risk that tensions on the Korean Peninsula could escalate with little warning[/u][/b]. See [url=http://smartraveller.gov.au/Countries/asia/north/Pages/south_korea.aspx#safety_and_security][color=#1a65ab][color=#0066cc]Safety and security[/color][/color][/url]. [/i][/font][/size][/color][/li][/left][/font][/size][/color][/ul]
  Aaron The Ghost of George Stephenson

Location: University of Adelaide SA
The risk in DPRK/ROK is not that great, DPRK has no actual means of backing up its present level of sabre rattling. Even if it did, ROK is unlikely to be a target.

Even DPRK is listed 'reconsider your need' it's not 'do not go' like Mindanao in the Philippines (which incidentally it was when I went to visit there, and it wasn't scary), or like some areas of Ukraine which I will hopefully be travelling to over Christmas/New Year.

DPRK has long been on my list of places to visit, and it remains so, I would travel there tomorrow, even in the current state of affairs if it was possible to do so.
  MetroFemme Assistant Commissioner

Will trump order a first strike?

Does he think this is necessary?

Will it bring out in into the issue?
  RTT_Rules Oliver Bullied, CME

Location: Dubai UAE
The risk in DPRK/ROK is not that great, DPRK has no actual means of backing up its present level of sabre rattling. Even if it did, ROK is unlikely to be a target.

Even DPRK is listed 'reconsider your need' it's not 'do not go' like Mindanao in the Philippines (which incidentally it was when I went to visit there, and it wasn't scary), or like some areas of Ukraine which I will hopefully be travelling to over Christmas/New Year.

DPRK has long been on my list of places to visit, and it remains so, I would travel there tomorrow, even in the current state of affairs if it was possible to do so.
Aaron
Yes I want to go to NK as well having been to Ukraine (and Chernobyl) and many a time in remote and problem areas of India.

I have a friend on the world tour (visit all countries), who is going to NK in a month or so. He went to Iraq and Syria last year although unofficially into Syria as no passport control when using locals to escort you to a plateau above ISIS territory. He also went to Somalia about 4 years back and has nice photos on his desk of his security detail. Picked up at the airport by a driver, tour guide and 4 heavily armed guards. Hotel was blown up 6mths after he left.

The benefit of NK is that you are physically safe from harm unlike many countries in the world. Your hotel is safe, you are escorted around everywhere. They won't let you go anywhere where you may get physically harmed or arrested as long as you do as you are told. Currently NK isn't taking Australian's for propaganda purposes so hard labour in jail is unlikely over a made up crime. So the most likely cause of death will be a bullet or bomb with made in USA written on it.

My worst fear is that Boy Kim feeling he has his back to the wall fearing his own inner circle will order a invasion of SK and then flee the country. Whether the army follows suit is another thing. NK can cause some harm to SK, but it will be short lived and then an invasion like Yanks taking back Kuwait will follow and the NK army will be slaughtered.

The one thing on Boy Kim's side is that SK doesn't want unification and doesn't want to invade NK or let it collapse and then inherit the worlds most backward and underfed population, infrastructure and society so I think he can do almost anything that doesn't directly involve SK. Sending a missile to Guam provided its not nuclear is unlikely to get an American invasion as the SK won't support.
  lsrailfan Chief Commissioner

Location: Somewhere you're not
I have seen many travellers on Youtube in NK, and it is a very surreal country to say the least, as RRT_Rules has said, you are escorted everywhere by Govt officials, you are read your rights as to what you can, and can't do, you get fed properganda by the bucket load, it's a very strange, and weird country.

Kind Regards
  GeoffreyHansen Minister for Railways

Location: In a FAM sleeper
Didn't Germany have struggles with reunification? Are some people in Germany still affected by it?

About Korea I just hope keeps his head cool and gets good advice around him.
  bevans Site Admin

Location: Melbourne, Australia
Will trump order a first strike?

Does he think this is necessary?

Will it bring out in into the issue?
MetroFemme

Trump will not act unless they fire first as doing so would lead to an attack on the USA during the initial strike and uncontrollable conflict with ICBM's.  Ain't going to happen.
  lsrailfan Chief Commissioner

Location: Somewhere you're not
Will trump order a first strike?

Does he think this is necessary?

Will it bring out in into the issue?

Trump will not act unless they fire first as doing so would lead to an attack on the USA during the initial strike and uncontrollable conflict with ICBM's.  Ain't going to happen.
bevans
Um, it is Donald Trump we are talking about here, but yes I agree, if Trump strikes first , then the North will go berserk firing missiles left and right, and the situation will get out of control within a matter of hours, and Seoul will probably get a missile bombardment

Kind Regards
  RTT_Rules Oliver Bullied, CME

Location: Dubai UAE
Trump alone cannot push the button, he is the final sign off.

It won't be over in hours, try 45min. NK has very long range fire power and the Thaad system will get over 50%. NK for 50 yeas through the bulk of their military budget into a strategy that would involve a ground assult against SK. This is 90% useless.against the USA which apart from Guam is a safe distance.

Old East Germany has suffered population decline since early 1940's. Cities like Lipzig which I went to 3 years back are demolishing building to put in parks in the inner city as people move and die. Even today there is still migration west. You can still see the difference in standards and other in East. Poorer English being one.

However no matter how backward East Germany was, NK is a basket case of much larger proportions. If  the border collapses uncontrolled there will a mass migration south due to starvation. East Germany had infrastructure and was feeding itself, NK does not.

The NK people are completely un prepared to work and live in a developed country. They don't drive, use computers, phones you name it.  Most are also spent their life being educated to believe most of what they know is false.

This is why SK has quietly dropped it unification drive. As the older population die out, the easier this becomes.

The best chance fir NK is a controlled change of power (won't happen) and allow development of the country and foreign aid in a controlled format over at least a decade wirh limited but increasing migration options. Return of the Kaesong industrial complex and expansion.
  lsrailfan Chief Commissioner

Location: Somewhere you're not
Some reports on the news tonight suggest that NK is preparing to fire more ICBM'S again, I wonder how long this can go on for? if Kim continues to fire his missiles, without hitting anyone/anything, that means no one has cause to act, so this could potentially go on for a while yet, until something breaks

Kind Regards
  RTT_Rules Oliver Bullied, CME

Location: Dubai UAE
Some reports on the news tonight suggest that NK is preparing to fire more ICBM'S again, I wonder how long this can go on for? if Kim continues to fire his missiles, without hitting anyone/anything, that means no one has cause to act, so this could potentially go on for a while yet, until something breaks

Kind Regards
lsrailfan
Consider this.

The USA can fire missiles into the Pacific Ocean until the target location is filled up with spent Missiles because they can afford it and their access to open ocean is fairly open.

NK has very limited access to foreign cash reserves and the assume the materials to build these missiles so how many can they actually afford to do? NK has even more limited access to open Ocean as Japan blocks long range missiles access to international air space and waters and SK to South, China to SW and NE and also Russia. Sooner or later they are going to screw up and pi$$ someone right off by landing on foreign territory.

Have to wonder how long before someone parks an anti missile defense system in the Sea of Japan and just blows his missiles out of the sky as soon as they leave NK airspace completely ruining Boy Kim's fun and any leverage he had.
  justapassenger Minister for Railways

Have to wonder how long before someone parks an anti missile defense system in the Sea of Japan and just blows his missiles out of the sky as soon as they leave NK airspace completely ruining Boy Kim's fun and any leverage he had.
RTT_Rules
Not any time soon, for two reasons:

1. None of the US-developed ballistic missile defence systems (Aegis BMD, Patriot, THAAD, GBMD) are capable of shooting down an IRBM launched from the DPRK flying over Japan.

2. Why pass up an opportunity to track a DPRK missile test and learn more about its performance?


Japan can theoretically intercept a SRBM launch against them using Patriot missiles. The emphasis has to be on 'theoretically' as Patriot is essentially a point defence system with very little cross-range capability (i.e. Patriot can be defeated by simply aiming your missile at somewhere other than the Patriot launcher) and has a record of killing more friendly aircraft than hostile missiles when used in actual combat situations rather than pre-arranged tests. The Japanese are consequently looking to replace Patriot with Aegis Ashore installations.
  GeoffreyHansen Minister for Railways

Location: In a FAM sleeper
Going a bit off topic but what is the chance of the PRC attacking the island of Taiwan?
  lsrailfan Chief Commissioner

Location: Somewhere you're not
Another missile has been fired from North Korea today, it flew over Japan before landing 2,000km off their coast line, this despite another round of UN Sanctions being applied this week, NK could be stopped tomorrow, if China and Russia were serious about it, but it would appear they are not!

Kind Regards
  bevans Site Admin

Location: Melbourne, Australia
South Korea has just fired back at Kim.
  YM-Mundrabilla Minister for Railways

Location: Mundrabilla but I'd rather be in Narvik
Just on the off chance that anyone else is as iggerant as me:

IRBM = intermediate-range ballistic missile
  lsrailfan Chief Commissioner

Location: Somewhere you're not
I think there will be a war on the Korean Peninsula sooner rather than later myself,

Kind Regards
  RTT_Rules Oliver Bullied, CME

Location: Dubai UAE
I think there will be a war on the Korean Peninsula sooner rather than later myself,

Kind Regards
lsrailfan
If they screw up and it goes somewhere it shouldn't, yes! Otherwise I think no.

I don't know why they just don't use these tests for target practice of their THAAD and other systems as soon as they are over internal waters.
  georges Train Controller

I don't know why they just don't use these tests for target practice of their THAAD and other systems as soon as they are over internal waters.
RTT_Rules
For the time being, collecting data is more productive than trying to bring the missiles down. The locals might lose faith in the anti-missile system if it missed.
https://arstechnica.com/tech-policy/2017/08/n-korea-launches-missile-over-japan-should-us-have-shot-it-down/
  justapassenger Minister for Railways

I don't know why they just don't use these tests for target practice of their THAAD and other systems as soon as they are over internal waters.
RTT_Rules
Because the two Hwasong-12 launches in the last few weeks flew over Japan at altitudes of around 550km and 750km, where THAAD cannot hit them. These are not cruise missiles that fly in the atmosphere and use control surfaces to make sudden course changes at any time.

THAAD is essentially a 'goalkeeper' that is only capable of a terminal phase intercept (it is even in the name - Terminal High Altitude Area Defence) of a theatre/intermediate range ballistic missile warhead descending towards the area where the THAAD launcher is located. It doesn't even have a warhead, the concept being that it simply gets in the way of the incoming round and smashes it in a head-on collision.

It's not known if there are any THAAD batteries in Japan yet, they don't have any of their own at this time so they would have to be US Army units.

Japan do have Aegis ships which may have been capable of intercepting the last couple of Hwasong-12 tests if the ships were in the right place and equipped with the right missiles, but there's no need to do it once they can tell the trajectory will take the missile safely overhead and out into the North Pacific.

Japan also has their own Patriot batteries, which I suppose are marginally better than nothing in the event of North Korea lobbing a medium range missile at them and there being no Aegis ships in range to handle it. Based on the previous performance of Patriot though, the result would likely be a clean miss on the inbound ballistic round and the slaughter of a few hundred airliner passengers.
  lsrailfan Chief Commissioner

Location: Somewhere you're not
So just who is to blame over this here- http://www.news.com.au/finance/work/leaders/donald-trump-advised-against-using-rocket-man-nickname-for-kim-jongun/news-story/b23f9763f70315527d42b4de88dd3de8- Insults flying left and right, if this doesn't settle down soon, there will be a massive war breaking out, sooner than one thinks!

Kind Regards
  bingley hall Minister for Railways

Location: Last train to Skaville
I see the real reason behind all this rhetoric is suddenly becoming clearer. US defence companies looking for mug Australian taxpayers to buy their overpriced toys Razz
http://www.abc.net.au/news/2017-09-29/australia-should-prepare-for-north-korean-attack/8998902

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