The North Korea situation

 
  RTT_Rules Oliver Bullied, CME

Location: Dubai UAE
About the worst Kim Jong Un could do is detonate his nuclear bombs in North Korea and hope the fallout destroys South Korea.

He can't fire his missiles with much more than standard high explosive warheads, and not particularly big ones.

He probably has enough missiles to destroy Seoul, of course.

But the US Destroyers have self defence missiles designed to intercept ballistic missiles.

So maybe only part of Seoul would be destroyed.

Meanwhile Pyongyang would be like a cup of coffee - flat, black and smoking...

But the risk to Australia is that we might have to do without Hyundai and Kia cars, and be stuck with Fords and Hondas from Thailand.

Peter
The problem is that there's not much one can do to stop several thousand old-school artillery shells and rockets landing in Seoul in the first wave of a barrage.  25 million people live in an area that's hard to evacuate:

http://www.huffingtonpost.com.au/entry/north-korea-artillery_us_58f631a4e4b0b9e9848eb990
Carnot
Seoul will obviously bear the brunt of an initial barrage from the north, so if NK wants to make a dent they better be quick because I strongly suspect SK has an extensive any missile system that will knock many of the birds out the air and another system to take out their launching pads. The distances are short so many of the missiles I'm guess will touch down, but this also means the mobile rocket launches won't be able to be mobile for too long and easily tracked.

I also feel SK has had enough crap over the years and will hit back fast and hard before a cease fire is requested by the yanks. Pyongyang is 175km roughly from China, so I think provided nothing ventures north of the capital and nuc's are not involved China will stay put but demand an immediate cease fire or they will cross the border.

Both China and US know they do not want to get involved in a head to head skirmish in Nth Korea again as this time it could easily escalate into something more personal and messy.

The Boy Kim knows he will have no where to run and hide and being educated outside NK knows full well the very limited capability of the NK military as do I suspect most of the generals and they also know much of the NK population doesn't believe much of their BS propaganda and hence are only submissive under the point of a gun. So how far is he and the rest of the NK Elite willing to risk their own little empires and willing to push this sabre rattling into a full blown conflict. They will be surely  be killed although the question is by who? I'm sure they would run head first towards the yanks away from their own army if given half a chance as at least the US will abide by UN Geneva convention. The NK people and soldiers will not.

To date, the world has only tolerated NK for one reason, China would protect them. So like the little brother poking his tongue at the school yard heavies knowing big brother will protect at all costs. Well big brother appears to be growing tied of little brothers antics and may just be willing to look away while little brother takes a few on the face.

...and one final thing. SK is not interested in reunification as NK is a basket case and will drag down the SK economy for at least a decade and they will have a major humanitarian case on its hands having to feed them all and basically given them a 21st century education in reality. A conflict will also see NK's head towards the border to escape NK in general and/or a potential war.  So there is no chance SK will fire first. But the USA cannot stand back and let boy Kim continue to develop nuclear bombs, as limited value as they would be. Would NK stand back and allow the USA to take targeted strategical strikes at their nuclear development facility if the USA cannot sabotage it in other ways?

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  freightgate Minister for Railways

Location: Albury, New South Wales
What does this sabre rattling mean for South Korea who might be thinking the north would attack them also ?
  lsrailfan Chief Commissioner

Location: Somewhere you're not
I note that Rex Tillerson was saying this morning, that they are working on a plan to try and get North Korea to the talking table, so the Yanks may be opting for a diplomatic solution, I think deep down North Korea know that they can't win a war with the Yanks, unless they have an arsenal of weapons that we don't know about
Kind Regards
  bingley hall Minister for Railways

Location: Last train to Skaville
I note that Rex Tillerson was saying this morning, that they are working on a plan to try and get North Korea to the talking table, so the Yanks may be opting for a diplomatic solution, I think deep down North Korea know that they can't win a war with the Yanks, unless they have an arsenal of weapons that we don't know about
Kind Regards
lsrailfan

What war?

Most of the recent aggression has been instigated by the Yanks.

Didn't we go through all this crap just a few years ago?
  RTT_Rules Oliver Bullied, CME

Location: Dubai UAE
What does this sabre rattling mean for South Korea who might be thinking the north would attack them also ?
freightgate
I'm sure SK would like a larger buffer zone and because of that as long as NK don't fire they won't as they don't want to be reunified which is likely to occur after a war.
  Pressman Spirit of the Vine

Location: Wherever the Tin Chook or Qantas takes me
Has  Kim Jong Un started to believe his own propaganda?
  woodford Chief Commissioner

Has  Kim Jong Un started to believe his own propaganda?
"Pressman"


He s a hereditary dictator, such people usually have a limited grip on reality, so far though all they have been doing is testing missile systems for delivering nuclear weapons, in defiance of a UN decision. The y have not as yet attacked anyone, inspite of threats, so be cannot be a complete moron. Because if they do do a first strike they will end up as toast.

woodford
  justapassenger Minister for Railways

… I think deep down North Korea know that they can't win a war with the Yanks, unless they have an arsenal of weapons that we don't know about
Kind Regards
lsrailfan
That's certainly true. The DPRK doesn't want to start a war with the USA - or with the ROK, PRC or Japan for that matter.

Their strategy is all aimed at having a military which can cause enough damage that taking them on would be a Pyrrhic Victory for the other side, and so sending a few extra shiploads of grain and oil looks like a better option.

The difference this time around is that a certain tiny fingered vulgarian has just discovered how fun it can be to fire off a whole lot of missiles.

Has  Kim Jong Un started to believe his own propaganda?
Pressman
I'm not seeing any evidence of that. He's following exactly the same script which has successfully seen off the threat of US aggression for decades.

The only different thing this time is that there's a lunatic in the mix, for the first time since the early 1970s.
  lsrailfan Chief Commissioner

Location: Somewhere you're not
So it's Lunatic A v Lunatic B, and if Lunatic A fires first, Lunatic B will most certainly fire back, - interesting times
Kind Regards
  Big J Deputy Commissioner

Location: In Paradise
What war?
bingley hall
The Korean War.

Don't forget that the Korean Armistice Agreement is only a ceasefire. Technically there is still a war, just that they have agreed to cease hostilities with the intent to negotiate a peace agreement. Obviously that has not happened and currently this world is heading further away from that objective.
  lsrailfan Chief Commissioner

Location: Somewhere you're not
Heard reports on the news tonight that the N Koreans may be considering another missile test in the not too distant future!

Kind Regards
  bingley hall Minister for Railways

Location: Last train to Skaville
Heard reports on the news tonight that the N Koreans may be considering another missile test in the not too distant future!

Kind Regards
lsrailfan

I see a N Korean spokesperson has threatened Australia with a nuclear strike for continued support for the US.

If anyone needs me I'll be busy for the rest of today down at Bunnings getting supplies for my DIY fall out shelter.
  Bogong Chief Commissioner

Location: Essendon Aerodrome circa 1980
At the very most, their missiles will only have the range to get to places in FFNQ. So dig a bomb shelter if you're on Thursday Island or maybe even Cooktown. Everyone else can relax.

But they only have around half a dozen nukes, 10 at most. I reckon they'll launch them towards Japan, South Korea, Taiwan or the American colony of Guam, before they even think of Cooktown.

Except their missiles can't carry the weight of a nuke, so they'll have to fly them in. Without aerial refuelling, military aircraft couldn't get further than Japan. But we can be pretty confident that the Japanese and South Koreans will shoot down any elderly North Korean cold war era bombers before they can drop their nukes.

In short, the whole thing is a huge beat up designed to get us to go to news related websites.
  lsrailfan Chief Commissioner

Location: Somewhere you're not
I actually think that  Kiim-Jon-Un is so stupid, and so full of himself, that he will make a stupid move, but that's my opinion

Kind Regards
  RTT_Rules Oliver Bullied, CME

Location: Dubai UAE
At the very most, their missiles will only have the range to get to places in FFNQ. So dig a bomb shelter if you're on Thursday Island or maybe even Cooktown. Everyone else can relax.

But they only have around half a dozen nukes, 10 at most. I reckon they'll launch them towards Japan, South Korea, Taiwan or the American colony of Guam, before they even think of Cooktown.

Except their missiles can't carry the weight of a nuke, so they'll have to fly them in. Without aerial refuelling, military aircraft couldn't get further than Japan. But we can be pretty confident that the Japanese and South Koreans will shoot down any elderly North Korean cold war era bombers before they can drop their nukes.

In short, the whole thing is a huge beat up designed to get us to go to news related websites.
Bogong
Tend to agree, the other issue is basically money. He has a very large army of foot soldiers with guns and I assume most of them are old. The NK's army annual budget is estimated at $6B. Australia's ADF Budget is $32B. I know they get paid buggerall and most of the basic services are supplied by their own factories for buggerall cost, but $6B doesn't buy you much high tech stuff and certainly in any volume.

Most of their military hardware is known to be very outdated, in limited supply and unreliable. They could amass a ground based attack only of any form of significance, but their soldiers are not well fed and would probably surrender for a Big Mac and a coke. Certainly I've never seen a picture of a NK solider that looks like they have any personal physical capability. If they try to use their army WW2 style, they will be slaughtered by the SK army alone using technology although I'm sure the NK's will reach Seoul. The sheer size of NK will obviously have an impact for a period, but how long? Don't forget the No.1 job of the NK army is to keep its own people in check, hence of their million man force, how many could they effectively send to the front?

NK also bolsters its army with a significant proportion of older men up to the mid 50's. The problem with this is that older soldiers are generally unreliable because they tend to think for themselves more so than younger guys, they have family and prefer self-preservation over suicide missions for a nut case dictators as Sadam Hussein found out.

They may have a few missiles, likely unreliable and these could cause some damage in suburbia of Seoul or Japan, especially if chemical, but who else can they really hit of significance? There is literally no other country in close proximity apart from China and Russia and the only country their ground based army is of use for is SK. For every missile launched at Japan they will get 10 back with pin point accuracy and there is not a thing they can do about it. NK's biggest problem with the US is that cannot hit with any accuracy or reliability any US base or territory not part of SK, but the USA can wipe NK off the map and they know it.

I could imagine if a NK General is ordered to launch a strike at Japan, the missile may be deliberately interfered with so it doesn't get there as they know what will happen if it reaches Japan. I'm sure their biggest problem with their own missile and nuclear program is internal sabotage.

For my money, stop providing them with aid, don't trade with them but let it be known any missile that will enter international waters will be blown out of the sky.

I was reading Russian Gazprom wanted to supply SK with gas via a pipeline through NK which would generate $100m a year in rent for NK. SK declined, probably knowing full well NK would use it as a lever against SK, steal some of the gas and they don't want to provide the idiot Boy Kim with an income stream.
  bingley hall Minister for Railways

Location: Last train to Skaville
And what RTT_Rules has described is what has enabled the status quo to continue (with a few minor isolated incidents) over the last 60 years.

The problem is this time around, in addition to immature rhetoric of the N Korean leadership, on the other side you have an ageing, recently elected. mentally unstable, western leader already trailing in the polls that needs to demonstrate to a soon to be jaded electorate that he can man up when required.
  M636C Minister for Railways

And what RTT_Rules has described is what has enabled the status quo to continue (with a few minor isolated incidents) over the last 60 years.

The problem is this time around, in addition to immature rhetoric of the N Korean leadership, on the other side you have an ageing, recently elected. mentally unstable, western leader already trailing in the polls that needs to demonstrate to a soon to be jaded electorate that he can man up when required.
bingley hall
I'm reminded of a 1982 joke about the Falklands:

"what can you expect from a tin-pot dictatorship where half the population is sleeping under newspapers on the streets - but the Argentine side has some questions to answer as well...."

Peter
  davesvline Chief Commissioner

Location: 1983-1998
Well IMHO, its China's problem to deal with. Lets be honest, you don't have to Google far to find NK only exist because China backed them up way back.

Sure there's a lot of missing detail, but in a nutshell, NK invaded SK. The UN sponsored force of nearly 20odd countries at the time assisted in pushing NK back over the SK border. So far up near the Chinese border in fact, that the Chinese then intervened with their army pouring across into NK, and gradually pushed the allies back to the SK border on or about the 38th parallel where the Armistice (ceasefire) was implemented.
I'd hazard a guess had the Chinese not intervened at that time that perhaps there'd only be one Korea now, and not the Communist one.

I say this situation is China's problem, because the world economy (of which they are a part) has come along leaps and bounds since the Korean Armistice, of which they have been massive beneficiaries. So, with that in mind we'd all like to get on with life and enjoy prosperity which I'm sure China would have to acknowledge involves them continuing to benefit.

As such, the world (including China's factories generating them all this wealth and prosperity) is not a safer place with their mate being a d!ckhead with nukes like they're fire crackers. It WOULD be a much safer place for all to enjoy -  if China kept that effwit on a leash before someone shoots him!!!! NK exists in China's backyard because all those years ago THEY chose to allow it. So, its China's job to clean up its smeg called NK.

Other may have a differing view, but like i said, IMHO.

Regards
  don_dunstan The Ghost of George Stephenson

Location: Adelaide proud
Well IMHO, its China's problem to deal with. Lets be honest, you don't have to Google far to find NK only exist because China backed them up way back.
davesvline
Yet again the Chinese government are allowed to carry on however they please and the rest of us just have to suck it up; North Korea are just their pawn in the long game against the West and Russia.
  Radioman Chief Train Controller

Hello All ,

with respect to China , DPRK is an independent UN member nation and China is not inclined to directly interfere as they consider that practice as "hegemony".

China ( and Russia ) are not keen to have American forces based on their border , and Russia's experience post the USSR collapse has created a real European border security problem that would have been avoided if George Bush Snr's undertaking that NATO would not extend east had been adhered to.

The collapse of DPRK would be problematic for both South Korea and China as neither could really cope with the resultant refugee problem . China will not invade DPRK as the consequences are both unpredictable and potentially very costly .

China can indulge in nasty phone calls and trade restrictions , but neither will reign in "the little fat kid" . It is significant that the DPRK had previously told America that the DPRK's ownership of nukes is the only deterrent the USA understands , and that DPRK will not be another Afghanistan , Iraq or Libya . That being so , what do you expect China or America to do ? An American air strike will result in an artillery barrage on Seoul , and good as America's military is , it would be impossible to prevent a DPRK artillery barrage from causing significant damage .

Whilst "the little fat kid" does a very good impression of being a nutter , the reality is that brinkmanship has got the DPRK to where it is today , so whilst i cannot offer an alternate solution , an air strike by America is very high risk , and China is not inclined to support , or participate in , military action against DPRK .

The other issue to consider is the effect China's action against DPRK will be viewed by China's neighbors . China's neighbors are currently upset about the South China Sea ( proof positive that possession is nine tenths of the law , international or otherwise ) , Chinese military action against DPRK will result in very worried neighbors , so worried that they may encourage American bases on China's borders . Not an outcome that China desires.

For your consideration , best wishes and regards, Radioman.
  9034 Train Controller

And what RTT_Rules has described is what has enabled the status quo to continue (with a few minor isolated incidents) over the last 60 years.

The problem is this time around, in addition to immature rhetoric of the N Korean leadership, on the other side you have an ageing, recently elected. mentally unstable, western leader already trailing in the polls that needs to demonstrate to a soon to be jaded electorate that he can man up when required.
bingley hall
60 years ago  North Korea  did not have nuclear weapons.   Now it does and threatens anyone who it wants with them,  including Australia.

From http://www.news.com.au/finance/work/leaders/donald-trump-takes-swipe-at-kim-jongun-as-north-korea-conducts-drill/news-story/ec9dd413b0456a7523b1e978a912685d

"As former President Barack Obama noted before he left office, North Korea’s nuclear weapons and missile program were becoming “steadily more alarming” and claimed his failure to do anything about it was “glaring”.
For Mr Trump, the task remains, how to stop North Korea from growing? Before it’s too late.
Mr Trump has sent more US military assets to the region in a show of force while leaning on China to exert economic pressure on its wayward ally"

So does the US wait until North Korea has the more weapons and the capability of attacking the US,  or does it act now?

Hopefully diplomacy will work, but I have my doubts.

9034
  bingley hall Minister for Railways

Location: Last train to Skaville
And what RTT_Rules has described is what has enabled the status quo to continue (with a few minor isolated incidents) over the last 60 years.

The problem is this time around, in addition to immature rhetoric of the N Korean leadership, on the other side you have an ageing, recently elected. mentally unstable, western leader already trailing in the polls that needs to demonstrate to a soon to be jaded electorate that he can man up when required.
60 years ago  North Korea  did not have nuclear weapons.   Now it does and threatens anyone who it wants with them,  including Australia.

From http://www.news.com.au/finance/work/leaders/donald-trump-takes-swipe-at-kim-jongun-as-north-korea-conducts-drill/news-story/ec9dd413b0456a7523b1e978a912685d

"As former President Barack Obama noted before he left office, North Korea’s nuclear weapons and missile program were becoming “steadily more alarming” and claimed his failure to do anything about it was “glaring”.
For Mr Trump, the task remains, how to stop North Korea from growing? Before it’s too late.
Mr Trump has sent more US military assets to the region in a show of force while leaning on China to exert economic pressure on its wayward ally"

So does the US wait until North Korea has the more weapons and the capability of attacking the US,  or does it act now?

Hopefully diplomacy will work, but I have my doubts.

9034
9034

Have you found those WMDs in Iraq yet?

You must be knackered by now Razz
  Valvegear Oliver Bullied, CME

Location: Norda Fittazroy
Have you found those WMDs in Iraq yet?
"bingley hall"
He may yet succeed where the UN Weapons Inspector failed.Rolling Eyes
  M636C Minister for Railways


Have you found those WMDs in Iraq yet?

You must be knackered by now Razz
bingley hall
They must have all been moved across the border to Syria, and found not to be there by the Russians.

Alternatively, maybe Assad moved his to Iraq for storage, since everyone knows there are no WMDs in Iraq.

Peter
  Carnot Minister for Railways

Talking of Assad and WMDs, the Israelis blew up a weapons store in Damascus this morning. Apparently they were destined for Hezbollah:

Israel hints it was responsible for Damascus airport explosion http://ab.co/2oz3Ntt - via @abcnews

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