The North Korea situation

 
  lsrailfan Chief Commissioner

Location: Somewhere you're not
I also saw on the news tonight, that all Senators were summoned to the White House, to hear about the developing situation over in North Korea, seems they will try and solve this crisis by diplomatic means if they can, if not, then it will be a military one, but the impression that I am getting, is that any Military option will be a last resort
Kind Regards

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  lsrailfan Chief Commissioner

Location: Somewhere you're not
North Korea launched another missile attempt overnight, albeit, it failed as well , I have read a website that says that North Korea may have got the data that it needed from the Missile's short flight, and then blown it up on purpose
Kind Regards
  lsrailfan Chief Commissioner

Location: Somewhere you're not
North Korea launched their first Intercontinental missile the other day, it travelled some 940km before landing, this is a serious escalation in this conflict, the U.S doesn't want a full scale war with the North, although, I have heard that Military options are being sought, I think if a Military strike was to occur with North Korea, I think it could be a very dangerous outcome!
Kind Regards
  bingley hall Minister for Railways

Location: Last train to Skaville
North Korea launched their first Intercontinental missile the other day, it travelled some 940km before landing, this is a serious escalation in this conflict, the U.S doesn't want a full scale war with the North, although, I have heard that Military options are being sought, I think if a Military strike was to occur with North Korea, I think it could be a very dangerous outcome!
Kind Regards
lsrailfan
What conflict?

If the USA carries out a missile test who are they in conflict with?
  lsrailfan Chief Commissioner

Location: Somewhere you're not
North Korea launched their first Intercontinental missile the other day, it travelled some 940km before landing, this is a serious escalation in this conflict, the U.S doesn't want a full scale war with the North, although, I have heard that Military options are being sought, I think if a Military strike was to occur with North Korea, I think it could be a very dangerous outcome!
Kind Regards
What conflict?

If the USA carries out a missile test who are they in conflict with?
bingley hall
True that, I didn't mean conflict, I meant situation, and yes I'm sure the US test their missiles, but we hear nothing of it!
Kind Regards
  nswtrains Chief Commissioner

North Korea launched their first Intercontinental missile the other day, it travelled some 940km before landing, this is a serious escalation in this conflict, the U.S doesn't want a full scale war with the North, although, I have heard that Military options are being sought, I think if a Military strike was to occur with North Korea, I think it could be a very dangerous outcome!
Kind Regards
What conflict?

If the USA carries out a missile test who are they in conflict with?
bingley hall
The difference is that the USA is supposed to be a rational country bound by numerous treaty agreements whilst Nth Korea is not rational and not bound by any of the usual civilized restraints. Frankly, I cannot see what can be done about Nth Korea and Kim knows that. I believe he wants a deal of some sort which will become apparent once he gets his big fire cracker topped by a big bunger perfected.

No one wants Nth Korea to fail as the consequences for China and Sth Korea would be catastrophic with millions of refugees to look after.
  mikesyd Chief Commissioner

Location: Lurking
Interesting that the South Koreans don't seem overly concerned about all this, else there would have been a mass exodus from the Seoul area (even the country) ages ago. Or perhaps they blindly believe that the US will destroy anything headed in their direction before it does any harm.

I am still waiting for one of mad Kim's tests to go wrong and for said missile to head in the direction of a Russian or Chinese city - then the balloon will really go up.
  justapassenger Minister for Railways

What conflict?

If the USA carries out a missile test who are they in conflict with?
bingley hall
The difference is that the USA is supposed to be a rational country bound by numerous treaty agreements …
nswtrains
So you would think, but how many countries has North Korea invaded in the last 20 years? And what about the USA?
  Valvegear Oliver Bullied, CME

Location: Norda Fittazroy
The USA is in the position of basically saying, "We're the good guys and we're allowed to have as many missiles as we like. You're the nut case and we have to stop you."
It may well be true but it doesn't go down well with North Korea's glorious leader (ahem), who is comparatively young (33), and surrounded by "advisers." He's like a kid with very dangerous toys.
  Bogong Chief Commissioner

Location: Essendon Aerodrome circa 1980
What conflict?

If the USA carries out a missile test who are they in conflict with?
The difference is that the USA is supposed to be a rational country bound by numerous treaty agreements …
So you would think, but how many countries has North Korea invaded in the last 20 years? And what about the USA?
justapassenger
I know it's fashionable in certain circles to bash the Yanks. (I live in a wealthy, Green voting suburb, so by "certain circles", I mean many of my neighbours.) Gosh, with the current American president, even I'm tempted to abuse the Seppos.

But we all know Americas policies, we all know how they will react to a particular situation, so even if we don't agree with everything the Yanks do, at least they are predictable.

But with the Kim dynasty's hereditary dictatorship, nothing is predictable except that they are confrontational and the welfare of it's own citizens has no influence on how the erratic regime will behave. That confrontational behaviour and the lack of predictability is what has caused alarmist people to run around in circles waving their hands in panic.
  Groundrelay Chief Commissioner

Location: Surrounded by Trolls!
...I know it's fashionable in certain circles to bash the Yanks. (I live in a wealthy, Green voting suburb, so by "certain circles", I mean many of my neighbours.) ...
Bogong
As it's fashionable to engage in "Green" and (supposedly) "Leftie" bashing, but that's the thing with generalisations Razz

...But with the Kim dynasty's hereditary dictatorship, nothing is predictable except that they are confrontational and the welfare of it's own citizens has no influence on how the erratic regime will behave. That confrontational behaviour and the lack of predictability is what has caused alarmist people to run around in circles waving their hands in panic.
Bogong
And I happen to agree with you (again I hate generalisations). There's an end game to all this. If their little right wing regime is under threat he'll have no qualms about going out a hero in a puff of smoke.
  lsrailfan Chief Commissioner

Location: Somewhere you're not
Seems we might be getting closer to War on the Korean Peninsular , if you believe these threats - http://edition.cnn.com/2017/08/08/politics/north-korea-considering-guam-strike-trump/index.html

Kind Regards
  Carnot Minister for Railways

At least with the Cold War you were generally dealing with somewhat rational leaders.

The same can't be said of this current situation.
  mikesyd Chief Commissioner

Location: Lurking
Kim will need to partake of his 'last supper' and then find a much better burrow than Saddam decided to hide in if he lobs one of his Toys on US controlled or US aligned soil.
  lsrailfan Chief Commissioner

Location: Somewhere you're not
Makes you wonder if this is all just blust and blunder, or will someone actually have the balls to push the "big red button" ??

Kind Regards
  Spletsie Chief Commissioner

I hope Donald Trump and Kim Jong-un can have the sense to realise it is not about them and their egos. It is about the rest of the world.
  Pressman Spirit of the Vine

Location: Wherever the Tin Chook or Qantas takes me
I hope Donald Trump and Kim Jong-un can have the sense to realise it is not about them and their egos. It is about the rest of the world.
Spletsie
That's the scary part of it all
  RTT_Rules Oliver Bullied, CME

Location: Dubai UAE
My belief is the one country that wants the status quo with NK to remain is SK. Gives them a political enemy to saber rattle the population when they need a political diversion, a bit like "1984" and they know reunification is going to be a financial and social disaster that will take at least 1 generation to recover from. Unofficially reunification is off the SK govt agenda and I suspect will quickly disappear officially once the older generation have died out and there is no longer direct family ties to people across the fence.

So I'm beginning to think the boy Kim feels he is untouchable and can do what he likes so long as he physically doesn't land a nuke in Japan, SK or USA. He knows the USA won't invade as it may force China's hand to defend the basket case and SK don't want unification or to inherit the North Korean basket case of a country should the Nth Korean govt should fall. So he can continue to shell the Sea of Japan with rockets that either work or don't, doesn't matter just as long as they take off and don't crash in NK, they look the part. Its a good look for his own people and military. Detonate their on nuclear bomb and that will raise his perception among the army and raise NK into the nuclear club and feel they might be treated more seriously.

The biggest question is the NK army. Most of the leaders and others know full well their army while large has very little capacity to take on anything serious apart from a ground war for a limited time, for which they will most likely be slaughtered by modern weapons in SK and USA. Physically most of them are weak and couldn't survive long periods in battle as they have minimal fat reserves and strength. As soon as there the slightlest hint of disorder in the NK chain of command, defection is likely to be ripe.
  lsrailfan Chief Commissioner

Location: Somewhere you're not
It seems as though the North Koreans are ramping up their threats, with the North threatening to fly 4 missiles in the direction of Guam, a plan to strike could be ready by mid August - https://www.theguardian.com/world/2017/aug/10/north-korea-details-guam-strike-trump-load-of-nonsense

Kind Regards
  lsrailfan Chief Commissioner

Location: Somewhere you're not
But this Website suggests it will be weeks, and possibly months until all the US Forces are really capable of having a war with NK, they need to build up their arsenal of weapons in the area, including, Tanks, Planes, Troops, Ships etc etc- http://edition.cnn.com/2017/08/09/politics/us-north-korea-war-signals/index.html
  justapassenger Minister for Railways

My belief is the one country that wants the status quo with NK to remain is SK.
RTT_Rules
I'd say China does too, as they won't want a deluge of refugees flooding in after the DPRK regime collapses.

If it becomes apparent that the US/ROK strategy for a war is just to push the DPRK back over their border and attrit some of the DPRK's remaining offensive capabilities, I don't see China joining in.

The biggest question is the NK army. Most of the leaders and others know full well their army while large has very little capacity to take on anything serious apart from a ground war for a limited time, for which they will most likely be slaughtered by modern weapons in SK and USA. Physically most of them are weak and couldn't survive long periods in battle as they have minimal fat reserves and strength. As soon as there the slightlest hint of disorder in the NK chain of command, defection is likely to be ripe.
RTT_Rules
The biggest problem is the artillery that the DPRK has aimed at Seoul, which can be put into play in just minutes and which have no form of defence. The only way to deal with that is via a preemptive strike, which will surely bring China into play.

The ROK and US both recognised this years ago and shifted their main army bases and pre-placed equipment stores further south where artillery is not a problem and SAM batteries can defend against SRBMs. The remaining forces close to the DMZ being there just to fight a delaying action to blunt the DPRK offensive and provide cover for the evacuation of Seoul, giving the ROK/US the defence in depth they lacked in the Korean War, but with a very heavy price tag.
  Valvegear Oliver Bullied, CME

Location: Norda Fittazroy
I wonder whether it's Kim Jong-Un or his generals who are actually driving the sabre-rattling. Are the generals sick of Kim, and setting up an excuse to topple him?
  Groundrelay Chief Commissioner

Location: Surrounded by Trolls!
I wonder whether it's Kim Jong-Un or his generals who are actually driving the sabre-rattling. Are the generals sick of Kim, and setting up an excuse to topple him?
Valvegear
Stalin and Hitler wouldn't have come close to having the control/loyalty he enjoys.
  Valvegear Oliver Bullied, CME

Location: Norda Fittazroy
Stalin and Hitler wouldn't have come close to having the control/loyalty he enjoys.
"Groundrelay"
He may well have great loyalty from the general public (which has no choice, anyway), but that means nothing. If the generals don't share that loyalty, Kim could still be in it up to his neck.
  gordon_s1942 Chief Commissioner

Location: Central Tablelands of NSW
This rhetoric with all its flowery punitive proclamations has been coming out of North Korea since the days of Kim Jong Un's grandfather 50 years ago when he was in power and I dont feel much has changed over the years.
However I am also worried they might one day begin to believe their own propaganda and do the unthinkable and launch an attack on a Western Neighbour.
I wasnt surprised by US President Donald Trump's equally ill thought of reply but on reflection, this may be just the kind of reply needed to show North Korea that the West is serious.

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