Adani changes to narrow gauge

 
  The Vinelander Minister for Railways

Location: Ballan, Victoria on the Ballarat RFR Line
Simple...we lead by example.

This is similar to the smoking argument of a generation ago. People used to smoke here in great numbers, however there's only the few diehards left, so the purveyors of death...err I mean tobacco businesses went and concentrated their product in the third world.

Now the third world countries are waking up to the tobacco evil.

The same thing will occur with coal...We go to renewables and eventually the third world will also turn to renewables once the coal smoke, dust and polluted air are apparent and all consuming. But unfortunately they'll probably have to create the damage from coal in their own countries  to learn from it.


Mike.

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  jmt Deputy Commissioner

I find a number of the preceding arguments to be highly introspective and parochial, as if the writers think that Australia is the sole country in the world exporting coal, and are not looking at the global picture.

While we flounder about, we are destined to loose our export advantage and position (leading to lower GDP). Plus our high wage structure, when compared with southern Africa (lower than coastal China), and unwieldy red tape, is a further impediment.

Colombia has clean steaming coal, and with companies like Glencore and the BHP consortia (Cerrejón) investing heavily in this area, it will not take much additional investment to lift output. Currently this coal goes to Europe, output around 90 mtpa.

The Moatize basin in Mozambique. Vale have completed one line to Nacala with a capacity of 18 mtpa that was engineered with the capacity to be rapidly doubled to 36 mtpa. A Thai consortia has commenced work on a SG line paralleling the north bank of the Zambezi with the potential of at least 50 mtpa, and Chinese state interests are applying for a parallel cape gauge corridor that will tie in Zimbabwe (and Botswana). Add the existing line crossing the Zambezi over the Dona Ana bridge to the coal loader at Beira, and Mozambique has the potential to be shipping 100+ mtpa to mainly south east Asia within a decade.  

South Africa through Richards Bay and the loader at Maputo, Richards bay is under utilised, capacity 91 mtpa. Botswans has huge proven coal reserves, it just requires the rail infrastructure to connect to a coastline.

The greenies can gloat as much as they like, and continue to trash Australia's export reputation, but other nations with lower wage costs, and complaint corrupt political classes, who don't give a monkey's toss about global warming, will readily step in to take up the slack. This is without considering the USA, who have exited the Paris Accord, with an existing capacity to ship an additional 200 mtpa.
  RTT_Rules Oliver Bullied, CME

Location: Dubai UAE
Do we want the recipients of the coal to use coal with higher ash and sulphur content that is sourced from Indonesia, China and India? That would be a great environmental outcome wouldn't it?
The only issue with this argument is that it assumes that the coal from the dirtier mines will stay in the ground.  It wont - it will simply find another use somewhere else.  So the emissions will go up.
I'm not sure about that argument James. There is a finite demand for coal around the world per annum and ATM potential supply exceeds demand. This is why the customers are able to cherry pick the good stuff (which Australia has an abundance of) and leave the poorer quality stuff in the ground.

As the world continues to move towards renewebles that demand will begin to taper off - demand may upscale as India and China bring new demand to the market but at the same time demand from some traditional customers is falling so there will be a see-sawing of demand in the near term.

Eventually India and China's own demand will begin to drop as they bring renewables online as well, either under pressure from their own people or from the international community. China already investing heavily in renewables, leading the world if you believe the press reports, as it tries to counter it's massive air pollution problems.

BG
BrentonGolding

Went to China in June for two weeks, 5 cities including Bejing and industrial Dalian and 3 cities in the western areas surrounded by coal power stations. The purpose of the visit was looking at plants that made coke based products. So dirty black stuff, expected to come back to hotel everyday looking like I came from Africa.

From my observation, China is one of the cleanest countries in the world of the 25-30 odd countries I have been too! Japan is number 1, China is very high up on list. Blue skis, clean water, clean roads, well vegetated road sides, no litter, they are foresting the desert. Most big trucks run on gas, not diesel, electric bikes everywhere as were some buses and taxis (in one city, all taxis were EV). The coal fired power stations have water scrubbers on them. Other industrial plants as well as construction sites spray water into the air to collect dust. Roads are washed over night.

China is already a world leader in wind and solar roll-out. However China isn't stupid, unlike some of our MP's. They know full well wind and solar combined do not provide 24/7 power and unreliable power supplies are not good for industry and jobs and even their trains noting China has 10,000km of HSR. And its about time many in Australia and this group understood the limitations of wind and solar as well, it has its place, but for now our options for secure power don't go far past burning coal and lessor degree gas.

FYI - Australia has about 10m cars on the road, averaging 18,000kmpa, if 50% were replaced with EV, thats 50km/day/car or about 15kW/car/day.

0.015kW x 5,000,000 = 75GWh every day, most will be charged at night when there is no sun and wind is typically at its lowest.

The current Australia grid delivers around  500GWh each day.

Good luck with the EV growth if we don't get our Stuff together. Wind and Solar output is cheap, but only if you use it when its available.
  RTT_Rules Oliver Bullied, CME

Location: Dubai UAE
Simple...we lead by example.


The same thing will occur with coal...We go to renewables and eventually the third world will also turn to renewables once the coal smoke, dust and polluted air are apparent and all consuming. But unfortunately they'll probably have to create the damage from coal in their own countries  to learn from it.


Mike.
The Vinelander
Interestingly the developing and emerging economies are building lower cost robust energy generation, if RE works, they build that. If RE doesn't work, they build mostly modern coal, like Australia. No dust, no smoke! (need to focus on reality here Mike). H
However unlike Australia, some are going the next step and installing scrubbers to reduce SO2 and NOX emissions.

As Australia has gone from one of the cheapest power prices in the world to one of the most expensive and unreliable in its quest for RE and watching its industry say good-bye, NO ONE ELSE will be stupid enough to follow our example. They will apply common sense, look at what the technology offers and work with the technologies limitations and it means a wind turbine, so be it, but if it means a coal fired power station, then thats ok too, next time round when the asset is life expired they will consider RE.

Maybe we should not pretending to lead, but follow!
  The Vinelander Minister for Railways

Location: Ballan, Victoria on the Ballarat RFR Line

From my observation, China is one of the cleanest countries in the world of the 25-30 odd countries I have been too! Japan is number 1, China is very high up on list.
RTT_Rules

If China is so 'clean' why do we see chronic air pollution in the big cities and air so filthy and polluted that it's often not safe to be outside.

Moreover EVERY image I've seen of China's rural landscape has the scenery disappearing into a milky haze long before the any possibility of viewing an horizon....and I haven't even mentioned the polluted rivers and lakes.

China is very obviously not a clean country...

Mike.
  michaelgm Chief Commissioner

I find a number of the preceding arguments to be highly introspective and parochial, as if the writers think that Australia is the sole country in the world exporting coal, and are not looking at the global picture.

While we flounder about, we are destined to loose our export advantage and position (leading to lower GDP). Plus our high wage structure, when compared with southern Africa (lower than coastal China), and unwieldy red tape, is a further impediment.

Colombia has clean steaming coal, and with companies like Glencore and the BHP consortia (Cerrejón) investing heavily in this area, it will not take much additional investment to lift output. Currently this coal goes to Europe, output around 90 mtpa.

The Moatize basin in Mozambique. Vale have completed one line to Nacala with a capacity of 18 mtpa that was engineered with the capacity to be rapidly doubled to 36 mtpa. A Thai consortia has commenced work on a SG line paralleling the north bank of the Zambezi with the potential of at least 50 mtpa, and Chinese state interests are applying for a parallel cape gauge corridor that will tie in Zimbabwe (and Botswana). Add the existing line crossing the Zambezi over the Dona Ana bridge to the coal loader at Beira, and Mozambique has the potential to be shipping 100+ mtpa to mainly south east Asia within a decade.  

South Africa through Richards Bay and the loader at Maputo, Richards bay is under utilised, capacity 91 mtpa. Botswans has huge proven coal reserves, it just requires the rail infrastructure to connect to a coastline.

The greenies can gloat as much as they like, and continue to trash Australia's export reputation, but other nations with lower wage costs, and complaint corrupt political classes, who don't give a monkey's toss about global warming, will readily step in to take up the slack. This is without considering the USA, who have exited the Paris Accord, with an existing capacity to ship an additional 200 mtpa.
jmt
Utterly brilliant.
This should be posted on every greeny webpage.
People need energy, and they will get it, from wherever.
At the very least, OZ has some sort of environment policy that would not exist in the places listed above.
Have a mate in For McMurray, Canada, working with oil sands when oil prices where sky high. Rape and pillage, was his description, and he's far from green.

EDIT. I have a roof top PV system. Why? $$$
  Sulla1 Chief Commissioner

Going back to 2016, leaked emails revealed US-based groups, such as the Sandler Foundation, had been funding the Sunrise Foundation's actions against the Adani project. At the time Newscorp papers reported US-based foundations had contributed $685-million to the eight largest green groups in Australia, which partly explains the funding for so much litigation against Adani. Now, on the back of this story, North American thermal coal exports are seeing a sharp rise (inlcuding to India) as global shortfalls in thermal coal production begin to appear - a case of unintended consequences.

http://trn.trains.com/news/news-wire/2018/09/13-cn-export-coal-traffic-ramping-up-in-canada-and-us


https://www.news.com.au/national/politics/environment-minister-raises-concerns-over-us-funding-for-green-lawfare-on-australian-mining-projects/news-story/efa71f1fb31de120b061a70d13a444c4
  bevans Site Admin

Location: Melbourne, Australia
Thinking about this decision over the past few days, I believe this decision to now use the existing network with some additional network being built as NG is the right decision.  This will reduce capital investment for Adani which is positive considering a lack of government funding for this project and no local funding as the banks have turned their back on this account the publicity.

The project funding is coming from their offshore sources so a recast of the budget was probably necessary.
  Carnot Chief Commissioner


From my observation, China is one of the cleanest countries in the world of the 25-30 odd countries I have been too! Japan is number 1, China is very high up on list.
If China is so 'clean' why do we see chronic air pollution in the big cities and air so filthy and polluted that it's often not safe to be outside.

Moreover EVERY image I've seen of China's rural landscape has the scenery disappearing into a milky haze long before the any possibility of viewing an horizon....and I haven't even mentioned the polluted rivers and lakes.

China is very obviously not a clean country...

Mike.
The Vinelander
China has been making progress to reduce pollution.  Still filthy compared to Australia though.  (AQI is typically 10 in Melbourne, 80-100 in Hong Kong and Beijing etc).

As for India (and other nearby countries like Bangladesh), it's terrible and only getting worse (AQI of 150+ in Delhi today).  One has to ask the question - is allowing Adani to pilfer our coal bad for the health of those who live in South Asia?
  RTT_Rules Oliver Bullied, CME

Location: Dubai UAE


Moreover EVERY image I've seen of China's rural landscape has the scenery disappearing into a milky haze long before the any possibility of viewing an horizon....and I haven't even mentioned the polluted rivers and lakes.

China is very obviously not a clean country...

Mike.China has been making progress to reduce pollution.  Still filthy compared to Australia though.  (AQI is typically 10 in Melbourne, 80-100 in Hong Kong and Beijing etc).

As for India (and other nearby countries like Bangladesh), it's terrible and only getting worse (AQI of 150+ in Delhi today).  One has to ask the question - is allowing Adani to pilfer our coal bad for the health of those who live in South Asia?
Carnot
Mike,
Ok first of all as I've told Don, if you travel the world via a laptop, especially using Australian Media, take everything with a grain of salt. Yes, I saw the story two weeks back of a woman in Dubai be supposedly arrested for having "one Glass of Complimentary wine on Emirates Flight", what I pile of crap.
- No mention of trying to enter the UAE on an expired EU passport, despite boarding the flight with a valid Iranian passport,
- No mention of her ranting and yelling,
- No mention of her breaking the law of filming a govt official,
- No mention of how many drinks she really had (my neighbor is head of on board security training for EK),
- No mention that immigration offered her an alternative option that required a simple fee to be paid to use her valid Iranian passport over her expired Swedish passport,
- No mention she was never separated from her daughter
- No mention she was proposed and deported within 24h
- No mention her business in Dubai that she claimed she lost her life savings over because of the issue at the airport was actually illegal medical practice (cosmetic) operating outside her qualified area of Dentistry.

So like when the Media reports on anything rail we know is often based on lose truths, at best, likewise I'm seeing increasingly similar standard level when applied to anything outside the Australian coastline. I now its so bad that when back in Australia in July/August this year, I never once bothered to watch the news.

So you can believe what you saw before, or you can look at my photos on my Facebook taken in June this year in five cities and on business road trips up to 150km from each of those cities spread out over nearly 300km in a mostly East West alignment, including Bejing, which we visited twice in the two week period.

As the local guide told us, 2015 was Bejing at its worse, major changes were made that year and every year since. I've listed some above previously, there are many more and yes come winter this year there is likely to be a few days of media grabbing attention. Put 600M people into the space of Victoria / NSW and its unlikely you will ever have a pristine atmosphere 100% of the time, however the pollution control standards are rapidly surpassing that of even some EU nations, they still however have gaps and these are being worked on at a rate  that would leave the average Australian EPA department in a head spin. Honestly when you drive into the country side into an area that all you can see is factories as far as the eye can see and NOT one stack has a visible plume, that pretty impressive.

Carnot, I would not call China filthily compared to Australia, Australian's regarding personal littering have alot to learn. Finding rubbish lying around is difficult. The same cannot be said about Australia, especially highways. Australian standards are artificiality made to look better than they are by low density population and limited industry. Also remember the desert creates a dust haze on its own.

I've spent alot of time in India, its a S__t hole of pollution, almost everywhere. They know they have a problem, one day they will learn, however I suspect a revolution will take place first.
  Carnot Chief Commissioner

I visited China in 1999 and 2006 so I suppose I'm not quite up-to-speed on what it's like today.  What I do remember is how much development occurred in just those few years - from a place that still looked like it had just emerged from the Cultural Revolution, to a modern developed economy.  The pollution in 2006 seemed similar to what it was in 1999, although I distinctly remember seeing smokestacks pumping out thick yellow smoke in 1999....

As for India - next year's election will be one to watch.  The BJP are unsurprisingly on-the-nose, but how will they react if they lose badly?
  BrentonGolding Chief Commissioner

Location: Maldon Junction
One has to ask the question - is allowing Adani to pilfer our coal bad for the health of those who live in South Asia?
Carnot
Probably not - compared to what they use now to cook with it will probably clean the place up a hell of a lot!

http://www.fairclimatefund.nl/en/projecten/verbeterde-houtovens-in-ruraal-india/

Did someone call a char wallah?!?!

BG
  The Vinelander Minister for Railways

Location: Ballan, Victoria on the Ballarat RFR Line


Moreover EVERY image I've seen of China's rural landscape has the scenery disappearing into a milky haze long before the any possibility of viewing an horizon....and I haven't even mentioned the polluted rivers and lakes.

China is very obviously not a clean country...

Mike.China has been making progress to reduce pollution.  Still filthy compared to Australia though.  (AQI is typically 10 in Melbourne, 80-100 in Hong Kong and Beijing etc).

As for India (and other nearby countries like Bangladesh), it's terrible and only getting worse (AQI of 150+ in Delhi today).  One has to ask the question - is allowing Adani to pilfer our coal bad for the health of those who live in South Asia?Mike,
Ok first of all as I've told Don, if you travel the world via a laptop, especially using Australian Media, take everything with a grain of salt. Yes, I saw the story two weeks back of a woman in Dubai be supposedly arrested for having "one Glass of Complimentary wine on Emirates Flight", what I pile of crap.
- No mention of trying to enter the UAE on an expired EU passport, despite boarding the flight with a valid Iranian passport,


I've spent alot of time in India, its a S__t hole of pollution, almost everywhere. They know they have a problem, one day they will learn, however I suspect a revolution will take place first.
RTT_Rules

I do not read what we used to call the 'popular press', nor do I have anything to do with viewing commercial TV or reading Murdoch owned papers or that media.

That said, I don't know of the story you are talking about as it obviously didn't make it to the Fairfax media or the ABC.

I'll never go to China, WAY too crowded and I don't like their food. I am heartened they have decided to do something about their air pollution, but needs must, the place was becoming uninhabitable.

I live in the bush as you know and I consider the Gold Coast and Syd/Mel to be too crowded, so holidays in China and India are out of the question.
I take my holidays in outback Queensland and am looking forward to a week at Julia Creek next month for work.

Mike.
  bingley hall Minister for Railways

Location: Last train to Skaville


Moreover EVERY image I've seen of China's rural landscape has the scenery disappearing into a milky haze long before the any possibility of viewing an horizon....and I haven't even mentioned the polluted rivers and lakes.

China is very obviously not a clean country...

Mike.China has been making progress to reduce pollution.  Still filthy compared to Australia though.  (AQI is typically 10 in Melbourne, 80-100 in Hong Kong and Beijing etc).

As for India (and other nearby countries like Bangladesh), it's terrible and only getting worse (AQI of 150+ in Delhi today).  One has to ask the question - is allowing Adani to pilfer our coal bad for the health of those who live in South Asia?Mike,
Ok first of all as I've told Don, if you travel the world via a laptop, especially using Australian Media, take everything with a grain of salt.
RTT_Rules


Oooh look at me, I've travelled the world and I know everything.

It still hasn't stopped you seeing what you want to see and believing what you want to believe.
  RTT_Rules Oliver Bullied, CME

Location: Dubai UAE


Moreover EVERY image I've seen of China's rural landscape has the scenery disappearing into a milky haze long before the any possibility of viewing an horizon....and I haven't even mentioned the polluted rivers and lakes.

China is very obviously not a clean country...

Mike.China has been making progress to reduce pollution.  Still filthy compared to Australia though.  (AQI is typically 10 in Melbourne, 80-100 in Hong Kong and Beijing etc).

As for India (and other nearby countries like Bangladesh), it's terrible and only getting worse (AQI of 150+ in Delhi today).  One has to ask the question - is allowing Adani to pilfer our coal bad for the health of those who live in South Asia?Mike,
Ok first of all as I've told Don, if you travel the world via a laptop, especially using Australian Media, take everything with a grain of salt. Yes, I saw the story two weeks back of a woman in Dubai be supposedly arrested for having "one Glass of Complimentary wine on Emirates Flight", what I pile of crap.
- No mention of trying to enter the UAE on an expired EU passport, despite boarding the flight with a valid Iranian passport,


I've spent alot of time in India, its a S__t hole of pollution, almost everywhere. They know they have a problem, one day they will learn, however I suspect a revolution will take place first.
I do not read what we used to call the 'popular press', nor do I have anything to do with viewing commercial TV or reading Murdoch owned papers or that media.

That said, I don't know of the story you are talking about as it obviously didn't make it to the Fairfax media or the ABC.

I'll never go to China, WAY too crowded and I don't like their food. I am heartened they have decided to do something about their air pollution, but needs must, the place was becoming uninhabitable.

I live in the bush as you know and I consider the Gold Coast and Syd/Mel to be too crowded, so holidays in China and India are out of the question.
I take my holidays in outback Queensland and am looking forward to a week at Julia Creek next month for work.

Mike.
The Vinelander
I saw the news report of the incident at Dubai Airport on FB, the TV news was from Channel 7 and I saw repeated in other media sites.

Back to China, yes they had to do something. You cannot have 1B live in a country smaller than Australia pumping whatever into the air, land and water and expect nothing to be affected. What I was told is that the Chinese people were starting to protest (in their own way) and the govt was embarrassed by massive expat departures in 2015 purely because of pollution. While China had been improving its Env position for some time. Way back in 2008 they announced closure of a number of factories around a lake. The tourism industry at that lake was huge including foreign, but completely wiped out within 10 years or so by factories pollution which created less jobs than was lost. I think in 2009, the Chinese govt allocated US$50B alone for Env improvement and recovery/ But a drop in the ocean compared to what was needed.

In Dalian, an industrial city near Korea, there was a coal power station in middle of city, closed recently. All power stations and industry is being moved out of cities and in process also cleaned up. In another city 1000km or inland from Bejing, there was a coal power station in middle of city still running, but at half speed and you could see the effort they were going to to have it run clean, ie spraying water into the stack.

Further west, we went past dozens of coal fired power stations, not one bit of dust or even brown haze. Water sprays on stockpiles, in stacks etc etc. At the alumnium smelters, they grow flowers alongside the potlines. One old plant we went into you couldn't even see most of the buildings due to the vegetation. It was like driving in a forest. In the western desert, they were establishing a massive forest on bare hills. Huge water sprays to irrigate. The Yellow River which we saw in a few places and no signs of pollution.

Overall, our group and another from here that went to a different area was completely surprised and impressed with what China has done in such a short time and the standard it is today. Certainly not what is portrayed in the media.

Western China is as populated in some areas as Mildura. We stood at the foot of a mountain range that has almost no humans living inside for next 500km into Mongola. But overall I agree with you, I'm not a fan at all of dense cities and looking forward to moving to the rural Aust in next few years.
  RTT_Rules Oliver Bullied, CME

Location: Dubai UAE


Oooh look at me, I've travelled the world and I know everything.

It still hasn't stopped you seeing what you want to see and believing what you want to believe.
bingley hall
You might want to pull your head out of your #$%@ and wake up and smell the roses. You know full well all I said was from what I saw! Is your reference point for this subject is no more than the tip of your fingers, or do you actually have something of value to share?
  x31 Chief Commissioner

Location: gallifrey
Sorry if I missed it but where would the new line join the existing NG network?
  Sulla1 Chief Commissioner

It will connect near the southern end of the Newlands System along the GAP (Goonyella-Abbot Point line, opened by Aurizon in 2011) near the Newlands and Byerwen Mines, and the mining town of Glenden.
  RTT_Rules Oliver Bullied, CME

Location: Dubai UAE
Sorry if I missed it but where would the new line join the existing NG network?
x31
Newlands?
  Dangersdan707 Chief Commissioner

Location: On a Thing with Internet
I visited China in 1999 and 2006 so I suppose I'm not quite up-to-speed on what it's like today.  What I do remember is how much development occurred in just those few years - from a place that still looked like it had just emerged from the Cultural Revolution, to a modern developed economy.  The pollution in 2006 seemed similar to what it was in 1999, although I distinctly remember seeing smokestacks pumping out thick yellow smoke in 1999....

As for India - next year's election will be one to watch.  The BJP are unsurprisingly on-the-nose, but how will they react if they lose badly?
Carnot
did you go gunzelling with the SYs and QJs?
  Carnot Chief Commissioner

I visited China in 1999 and 2006 so I suppose I'm not quite up-to-speed on what it's like today.  What I do remember is how much development occurred in just those few years - from a place that still looked like it had just emerged from the Cultural Revolution, to a modern developed economy.  The pollution in 2006 seemed similar to what it was in 1999, although I distinctly remember seeing smokestacks pumping out thick yellow smoke in 1999....

As for India - next year's election will be one to watch.  The BJP are unsurprisingly on-the-nose, but how will they react if they lose badly?
did you go gunzelling with the SYs and QJs?
Dangersdan707
Sadly it was a business trip and only in Southern China around Shanghai and Pearl River delta.

Funny thing was that in 1999 nearly everyone was wearing the usual dour dark blue clothing, but in 2006 it was all very Western.

Getting slightly back on topic - more questions are being raised about the amount of water the mine is wanting to use and how the Feds are waiving the full environmental assessment.  Both the greenies and farmers are (rightfully) united in their outrage:
http://www.abc.net.au/news/2018-09-18/adani-plan-for-12.5b-litres-of-water-to-avoid-impact-assessment/10262764
  james.au Chief Commissioner

Location: Sydney, NSW
What sort of volume increase is this mine looking at being compared to what is being mined out of that area now?
  Sulla1 Chief Commissioner

The Adani line will be designed for a capacity of 40-million tonnes per annum and the Carmichael mine will be producing 27.5-million tonnes per annum. North of Collinsville the Newlands line is currently carrying 30-million tonnes per annum.
  james.au Chief Commissioner

Location: Sydney, NSW
Assume those figures are TPA? That sounds like a pretty decent jump in volume.  Id guess there'd need to be upgrades down from Newlands then too.
  Sulla1 Chief Commissioner

Yep, I'd expect additional duplication between Abbott Point and Collinsville (there's two duplicated sections at the moment), plus RCS (CTC) south of Collinsville and additional crossing loops...and maybe even some duplication too. More mines and another 10-million tonnes per annum is likely on the Newlands line in the next year or two without the Adani traffic.

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