2019 Federal Election Thread

 
  emerald-a Locomotive Driver

Labor destroyed around Central Queensland unsurprisingly given their anti mining and anti agriculture stance.

I wonder if the state government will take notice and adapt or if they will just walk to the slaughter

Sponsored advertisement

  justapassenger Chief Commissioner

I know life-long rusted on ALP voters and unionists who for the first time voted for the Coalition.
Carnot
Also some life-long Liberal voters turned away from them this time.

Mayo, once a blue ribbon seat, saw a swing away from the Liberals towards Rebekha Sharkie in the third consecutive election (2016 general election, 2018 by-election, 2019 general election). It was clear very early on in counting that Princess Georgina had been firmly told to crawl back under the rock she came from, and after two defeats in a row it would be unlikely that she'll be back again.

The really interesting one is the decisive victory of Zali Steggall over Tony Abbott, where the Liberal smear campaign clearly failed to win back the many long term Liberal voters who sided with Steggall. If she performs well as a local MP sitting close to the centre but leaning slightly towards the Coalition, she will have a good chance of cementing a reputation as a good local representative who deserves to be returned next time.
  james.au Chief Commissioner

Location: Sydney, NSW
My question - how are the polls so wrong?

My conspiracy question - was NewsPoll used to suggest labour were stronger than reality and sway voters to vote Liberal?



Re Vic budget, here is hoping for some clarity around the Freight Passenger Separation Project.
  RTT_Rules Dr Beeching

Location: Dubai UAE
I know life-long rusted on ALP voters and unionists who for the first time voted for the Coalition.
Also some life-long Liberal voters turned away from them this time.

Mayo, once a blue ribbon seat, saw a swing away from the Liberals towards Rebekha Sharkie in the third consecutive election (2016 general election, 2018 by-election, 2019 general election). It was clear very early on in counting that Princess Georgina had been firmly told to crawl back under the rock she came from, and after two defeats in a row it would be unlikely that she'll be back again.

The really interesting one is the decisive victory of Zali Steggall over Tony Abbott, where the Liberal smear campaign clearly failed to win back the many long term Liberal voters who sided with Steggall. If she performs well as a local MP sitting close to the centre but leaning slightly towards the Coalition, she will have a good chance of cementing a reputation as a good local representative who deserves to be returned next time.
justapassenger
I would it wasn't anti-LNP that got Tony Abbott out, but rather it was a very much anti-Tony Abbott. The IND is a conservative and already said she will support the govt if need be. Watch next time as she very much gets dumped for a fresh LNP candidate, like Dr Phelps may find out.

Yes some LNP supporters changed sides, happens every election to both sides and usually with the words, "never again".
  RTT_Rules Dr Beeching

Location: Dubai UAE
My question - how are the polls so wrong?

My conspiracy question - was NewsPoll used to suggest labour were stronger than reality and sway voters to vote Liberal?



Re Vic budget, here is hoping for some clarity around the Freight Passenger Separation Project.
james.au
1) There method of surveying is out date

2) The swing towards SCOMO was increasing and the polls are always lagging

3) The survey sizes are often very small

4) They missed things like SCOMO holding phone Town Hall Meetings to a random group of 5000 voters 3 x a night where SCOMO was taking questions from the same in the last weeks of the election.

5) NewsPoll is not the only polling agency and need to be careful about driving a bias for fear of loosing future work from other organisations. The election outcome will leave some organisations to ask Newspoll the hard questions on why they should use them if they get it so wrong. There is at least 1 guy $1M worse off.
  Radioman Chief Train Controller

Hello All,

the Bob Brown Environmental anti Adani Express certainly derailed both the Green and Labor Campaigns, both Parties showing a fall in their previous primary vote, in Labor's case, disastrously so.

The Adani Mine Project raises an interesting question in that Qld State Labor Govt has approved a project which will have a detrimental effect on the farmers in the District, especially when you consider that this is a region has a water shortage problem now, and the Adani Mine will now have priority over the farmers for access to water , this is not a good result for  either the farmers or the community.

The reality that Labor has not gained an extra seat nationwide effectively means that ScoMo has the opportunity to cement the LNP for a generation, and this time as the Nationals have again done very well, so the Liberals will again have to agree to some of the Nationals demands.

The ALP should also give serious consideration to a clean out of existing long serving MPs and go for a new generation, if they start this process now, then in 18 months time a series of by elections may give them a chance to improve at the next general election, but either way, it is likely that Labor federally is out for at least 6 years

Regards, Radioman.
  potatoinmymouth Chief Commissioner

Antony Green’s opinion on the polling misfire is worth considering. He observed that until about 10 years ago, ringing random landlines and corresponding then with the electoral roll was fairly close to a true statistical random sample. Of course, that wasn’t always true, as in the Dewey/Truman episode, but in Australia of the late 20th/early 21st century, it was pretty good.

As landlines declined, pollsters shifted their methodology - Newspoll has been ringing landlines since 2014 - but no one has yet figured out a way of making this properly random. The effect is that they are weighting demographics without knowing if the weights are accurate.

This makes the “bunching” which occurred toward the end of the polls easily explicable. 17 major polls in a row had Labor on 51 or 52, which is statistically very improbable. So pollsters were adjusting their weights, not out of any deliberate bias, but in a misguided attempt to make their results “believeable”. That can’t all be blamed on Newspoll.
  SinickleBird Chief Train Controller

Location: Qantas Club at Mudgee International Airport
My cynical 2 cents worth:

On the polls, or at least how media report them. Mainstream media, especially those that portray themselves as “progressive” publish what they want to happen, rather than what the facts support. they want Labor, so Labor is ahead in the polls. Even if Labor loses on the day. Left media want lower interest rates, so the RBA is permanently under pressure (from the media folks) to cut rates - for  a range of reasons, and for a very long time. yet official cash rate remains at 1.50%. Progressive media now peddling the line that a centre-left party isn’t left enough - yet all parties further left (eg Greens) preferences Labor, and still they didn’t win.

On Tony, about time. And good on Zali Steggall. Although her “climate change” credentials will be interesting practice. If the people of Warringah are so strongly concerned about climate change, then their first collective action should be to switch off their air-conditioners, and then to put their SUVs away and take the B1 bus. It would be interesting to see (per household) electricity consumption figures published by electorate. Or even by local government area. It would either support or shoot down in flames my theory that there’s a lot of “do what I say, not what I do” in the debate.

Interesting also that two seats have rejected the “family business” approach to politics - Princess Georgina and also Ms Beasley in the west. Clear voters do not accept that concept of their seat being a multi-generational manor farm under a feudal system. Doesn’t matter which party - 3 generations is just too much.
  Groundrelay Chief Commissioner

Location: Surrounded by Trolls!
My cynical 2 cents worth:

On the polls, or at least how media report them. Mainstream media, especially those that portray themselves as “progressive” publish what they want to happen, rather than what the facts support. they want Labor, so Labor is ahead in the polls. Even if Labor loses on the day. Left media want lower interest rates, so the RBA is permanently under pressure (from the media folks) to cut rates - for  a range of reasons, and for a very long time. yet official cash rate remains at 1.50%. Progressive media now peddling the line that a centre-left party isn’t left enough - yet all parties further left (eg Greens) preferences Labor, and still they didn’t win..
SinickleBird
Not worth 2 cents.

The much quoted Newspoll is very much left wing. Published by that leftie rag The Australian. The rest of the leftie media (The other Murdoch papers, 2GB, Sky, Seven and Ten) all publishing and commenting on Newspoll results rather than Ipsos.

Their own research didn't prepare either party for this result.
  Groundrelay Chief Commissioner

Location: Surrounded by Trolls!
Stunning  achievement for Scott Morrison and his team.

Helped along by Chris Bowen.

"Shadow treasurer Chris Bowen said retirees unhappy with Labor's plan to scrap cash payments for excess franking credits were free to take their vote elsewhere because the Opposition would not be backing down."

Looks like some people took his advice!
9034
Run an extremely negative campaign with $80m help from an outside party.

Labor got ahead of itself. If they simply focused on the dysfunctional LNP and stagnate Wages the result would have been different even with Bill. In the age of social media rumours quickly become fact. No one reads a five page policy document. It doesn't matter if the average punter is unlikely to have an investment property or franked dividends because they believe they will.

If the global economy doesn't pick up, LNP 'economic management' will be shown for what it is.  Albo is someone who would make the most of it and he won't hold back. This was no Morrislide, no Labor wipe out. In the absence of some economic miracle it wouldn't take much for Labor to pull back 6 or so seats in 3 years.

In the meantime Scomo will keep paying me $$$ in franking credits so I'm still a winner Laughing
  RTT_Rules Dr Beeching

Location: Dubai UAE
My cynical 2 cents worth:

On the polls, or at least how media report them. Mainstream media, especially those that portray themselves as “progressive” publish what they want to happen, rather than what the facts support. they want Labor, so Labor is ahead in the polls. Even if Labor loses on the day. Left media want lower interest rates, so the RBA is permanently under pressure (from the media folks) to cut rates - for  a range of reasons, and for a very long time. yet official cash rate remains at 1.50%. Progressive media now peddling the line that a centre-left party isn’t left enough - yet all parties further left (eg Greens) preferences Labor, and still they didn’t win..
Not worth 2 cents.

The much quoted Newspoll is very much left wing. Published by that leftie rag The Australian. The rest of the leftie media (The other Murdoch papers, 2GB, Sky, Seven and Ten) all publishing and commenting on Newspoll results rather than Ipsos.

Their own research didn't prepare either party for this result.
Groundrelay
You calling 2GB leftie?
  Groundrelay Chief Commissioner

Location: Surrounded by Trolls!
My cynical 2 cents worth:

On the polls, or at least how media report them. Mainstream media, especially those that portray themselves as “progressive” publish what they want to happen, rather than what the facts support. they want Labor, so Labor is ahead in the polls. Even if Labor loses on the day. Left media want lower interest rates, so the RBA is permanently under pressure (from the media folks) to cut rates - for  a range of reasons, and for a very long time. yet official cash rate remains at 1.50%. Progressive media now peddling the line that a centre-left party isn’t left enough - yet all parties further left (eg Greens) preferences Labor, and still they didn’t win..
Not worth 2 cents.

The much quoted Newspoll is very much left wing. Published by that leftie rag The Australian. The rest of the leftie media (The other Murdoch papers, 2GB, Sky, Seven and Ten) all publishing and commenting on Newspoll results rather than Ipsos.

Their own research didn't prepare either party for this result.
You calling 2GB leftie?
RTT_Rules
Laughing
  justapassenger Chief Commissioner

My question - how are the polls so wrong?
james.au
They weren't, they were mostly within the margin of error.

The last 2PP poll result from Ipsos a few days ago (ALP 51%, LNP 49%, ±2.3%) was not wrong at all. The national 2PP count at present (51.06 / 48.94) is within the margin of error on that one.

The 'preferred Prime Minister' result on that one (Morrison 47, Shorten 40, neither 13) was proven to be correct on election day.

I think it is the interpretation and reporting of polling which is proving to be problem. 51/49 ±2.3 with some of the other questions going the other way should be treated as too close to call, not as cause to predict a win.

As pointed out already, dialling random landline numbers sucks as a selection method. The low take-up of NBN-based VOIP landlines skews the polls in favour of areas which still have the legacy Telstra network, and so introduces a bias towards people who are pissed that the Libs screwed up the NBN and may vote on that basis.
  reubstar6 Chief Train Controller

You calling 2GB leftie?
RTT_Rules
Is this...Ben "facts before feelings, except when they're my feelings" Shapiro?
  djf01 Chief Commissioner

Pollsters might have to re-write their methodology....
According to Antony Greene, they have been forced to change and that's the problem. They use to take random samples from the electoral rolls, and ring the people up on their landlines ...
It might be more about those that get involved in the surveys.   Any survey or robo-call or electricity sales person that rings my phone gets an immediate hang-up.
Donald

As recently as 10 years ago I'd answer a phone poll.  

Now, unless I recognise the calling number, I don't even say "hello" unless the person calling me identifies themselves and is someone I want to talk to.  Pollsters could have called me this election, but I'd never know as they'd have been hung up on without me uttering a word.

"We have surveyed 1000 people - all of which were stupid enough to answer our call - and collectively they say this ..."

In the last NSW and VIC state elections, and now this Fed election, we've seen opinion polls produce a long history of consistent predictions - which have subsequently been turned out to be wrong way beyond their statistical margin of error.  Similar things happened with BREXIT and Trump's election in the USA.

I think this is also having an impact on how the parties are framing policy.  It's being dumbed down (even more) to target the cohort dumb enough or bored enough to be polled.
  Aaron Minister for Railways

Location: University of Adelaide SA
My cynical 2 cents worth:

On the polls, or at least how media report them. Mainstream media, especially those that portray themselves as “progressive” publish what they want to happen, rather than what the facts support. they want Labor, so Labor is ahead in the polls. Even if Labor loses on the day. Left media want lower interest rates, so the RBA is permanently under pressure (from the media folks) to cut rates - for  a range of reasons, and for a very long time. yet official cash rate remains at 1.50%. Progressive media now peddling the line that a centre-left party isn’t left enough - yet all parties further left (eg Greens) preferences Labor, and still they didn’t win..
Not worth 2 cents.

The much quoted Newspoll is very much left wing. Published by that leftie rag The Australian. The rest of the leftie media (The other Murdoch papers, 2GB, Sky, Seven and Ten) all publishing and commenting on Newspoll results rather than Ipsos.

Their own research didn't prepare either party for this result.
Groundrelay
I was speaking to a friend today who was doing internal polling for the ALP in Queensland. He said that the ALP was well aware that support for them in Queensland in particular had collapsed, and on that basis alone they wouldn't likely be in position to form government. He basically said that Shorten knew he'd be delivering a concession speech on Saturday night.

From my own experience with statistical sampling for polling I have found that a mark and recapture method works best. It was always the main form of sampling we tried to do, but that said we were finding ourselves in position to do this analysis on fewer and fewer occasions.

I don't know about the 'public' pollers like Ipsos, Newspoll, etc but the biggest reason for error margin is not due to the lack of landlines, it's due to the general population not wanting to be polled once, let alone more than once for the mark-recapture test. We used to only get half the data we needed, an accurate guess on only 50% of the required information is really hard to do.
  Radioman Chief Train Controller

Hello All,

the other probable outcome for both the ALP and future policy of any party is that Negative Gearing and Capital Gains Tax Reforms are off the agenda, probably for at least a decade if not longer, and this is despite the potential for non reform to effectively bankrupt the Treasury.

From this perspective, Howard's Tax deductions have effectively permanently increased the LNP base, will see housing continue to be transformed into a primarily rental investment, to the detriment of the younger generations , for whom home ownership ( Menzies mantra ) will increasingly be unobtainable.

The young are now increasingly facing no permanent work , everything being flexible and short term. As Banks ( understandably ) are increasingly looking at a Deposit of 20%, there will be a reluctance to lend to someone who does not have long term or permanent employment . Therefore housing will increasingly be for the far better off, and home ownership could easily plummet to 20%, down from around 50% now, and by the way, it was once 75% three or more decades ago.

Therefore rentals will increasingly be the norm, and as Australia does not "do" long term rents, the normal is a 12 month lease, sometimes less, and then it is month to month. While this is flexible if you wish, or need to move around a bit, the flip side is the landlord can give you 4 weeks notice to quit; and as Tasmania is now demonstrating, homelessness becomes a real prospect for many people. I cannot imagine that Ming the Merciless ( Menzies ) ever anticipated the Liberal Party for the "forgotten people" would end up effectively supporting this policy outcome.

It should also be noted that Labor has been generally reluctant to tackle this issue head on, and this General Election result will most likely kill off any attempt to do so any time soon. And on current performance, State supplied housing will also not happen.

Is this really what we want for our future generations ? Especially considering that our parents ( 1920s - 1930s children ) generally achieved this, and their children also generally achieved this, but their grand and great grand children will be increasing deprived of this aspiration.

Regards, Radioman.
  ANR Assistant Commissioner

Death taxes, would be the death of any political party or leader ( even from a whispering campaign), followed by climate policy.

There will be a statue of Scomo erected holding up a block of coal.

Who will be the next Federal Labor leader?
  davesvline Chief Commissioner

Location: 1983-1998
Probably Eggs over easy.  Looks ok, time will tell how much mush is in the middle


Wondering, based on the surprise result, whether Chris Pine and Julie Bishop jumped the gun quitting, and possibly regret that no from the result??

Regards
  davesvline Chief Commissioner

Location: 1983-1998
You have to say it definitely won't be Chris Bowen???

If people don't like our policies, then don't vote for us....... No worries bud Laughing  Now bend over!

We await.
  Donald Chief Commissioner

Location: Donald. Duck country.
It was the most sensible thing to come out of any politician's mouth for many years.
  bevans Site Admin

Location: Melbourne, Australia
You calling 2GB leftie?
Is this...Ben "facts before feelings, except when they're my feelings" Shapiro?
reubstar6

2Gb would to me be as right wing as it can get.
  bevans Site Admin

Location: Melbourne, Australia

Re Vic budget, here is hoping for some clarity around the Freight Passenger Separation Project.
james.au

James what is this project link please?
  ANR Assistant Commissioner

Next La bore leader will need to have some charisma, speak clearly, not slur their speech, is not a sourpus, or carry a painted on frown, and make voters feel upbeat about change.

I can't think of anyone that fits this description... Except Malcolm Turnbull.

Sponsored advertisement

Display from: