You don't know the answer - so stop pretending that you do.

He has presented facts (repeat, facts) and figures accurately. He's not pretending about anything. You obviously cannot comprehend his well laid out presentation, so the best idea is for you to stop embarrassing yourself, and just keep quiet. Those of us who do understand it will continue to appreciate Aaron's comments on the subject.

Don won't admit that Aaron is right.

Don's first and second paragraphs of drivel in reply to Aaron's excellent, fact filled post, make it blatantly obvious that he's up s#!t creek without a paddle.

He'll try and change the topic soon or ignore everything that's been posted in an attempt to back away knowing he's been well and truly shown up!

I have never drawn a single dollar of income from 'the government'

You work in a program set up and wholly-funded by taxpayers.

Correct or incorrect?

Don won't admit that Aaron is right.

Don's first and second paragraphs of drivel in reply to Aaron's excellent, fact filled post, make it blatantly obvious that he's up s#!t creek without a paddle.

He'll try and change the topic soon or ignore everything that's been posted in an attempt to back away knowing he's been well and truly shown up!

He said that the suicide rate in 2021 was definitely the same as it was in 2020 and then couldn't produce numbers to support that assertion so he changed the goal-posts.

And like all the other sudden adorning fans you will change your mind the instant he says something you don't like... so savour it while you can because it won't last.

Don, just quit the baloney will you. You don't understand Aaron; we do.  Simples.

You don't know the answer - so stop pretending that you do.

He has presented facts (repeat, facts) and figures accurately. He's not pretending about anything. You obviously cannot comprehend his well laid out presentation, so the best idea is for you to stop embarrassing yourself, and just keep quiet. Those of us who do understand it will continue to appreciate Aaron's comments on the subject.

This is where we need a "You are a f.wit" reaction button...

So just because I'm sceptical and cautious I deserve to be abused and called names? I'll have to remember that for the next time you say something I don't agree with.

Nah, it's not that at all Don, it's the fact that you cannot tell the truth about something, you said that there would be a massive suicide rate because of the lockdown's in Victoria, Aaron has called you out on it by citing to you some statistics citing that they are about normal or the same, and your point blank refusal to believe them, that's what's it's about.

And like all the other sudden adorning fans you will change your mind the instant he says something you don't like... so savour it while you can because it won't last.

STOP FOLLOWING FALSE PROPHETS AND ALL HAIL GURU DON, THE SOURCE OF ALL TRUTH ABOUT EVERYTHING!!!

Don won't admit that Aaron is right.

Don's first and second paragraphs of drivel in reply to Aaron's excellent, fact filled post, make it blatantly obvious that he's up s#!t creek without a paddle.

He'll try and change the topic soon or ignore everything that's been posted in an attempt to back away knowing he's been well and truly shown up!

He said that the suicide rate in 2021 was definitely the same as it was in 2020 and then couldn't produce numbers to support that assertion so he changed the goal-posts.

And like all the other sudden adorning fans you will change your mind the instant he says something you don't like... so savour it while you can because it won't last.

And you said in that other thread...well, you know.

don_duntsan, have you ever wondered why you regularly find yourself in an adversarial position on this board? Have you ever wondered why it is, that you have attracted so many adversaries? Have you ever realised what it is that your many adversaries have in common? It is dealing with YOU.

Now that you are criticising others for using the same tactics that are de rigueur for you all over the place, it doesn't matter that I will now address some of the smear that you threw at me in the Renewables thread, here.

I couldn't give two hoots whether you're on the spectrum or not, or whether you have some other sort of intellectual issue or not. Until yesterday I had no idea; I was only guessing. I have always attacked you for what you have said, not what you are. You see it differently - so what. Yes, maybe I have compared you with people who lack certain skills, but you've done nothing to break the stereotype. Rather, you have reinforced it.

To your credit you have never hidden behind your disability, but you have also totally failed to acknowledge that it is the reason why your brain/mouth/fingers come up with so much rubbish.

Come clean, and maybe the rest of us will go a little easier on you. Stonewall, and you will remain as fair game.

You don't know the answer - so stop pretending that you do.

He has presented facts (repeat, facts) and figures accurately. He's not pretending about anything. You obviously cannot comprehend his well laid out presentation, so the best idea is for you to stop embarrassing yourself, and just keep quiet. Those of us who do understand it will continue to appreciate Aaron's comments on the subject.

This is where we need a "You are a f.wit" reaction button...

So just because I'm sceptical and cautious I deserve to be abused and called names?

No, but when something is spelled out as plain as the nose on your face and you still don't get it then you deserve it...

You don't know the answer - so stop pretending that you do.

He has presented facts (repeat, facts) and figures accurately. He's not pretending about anything. You obviously cannot comprehend his well laid out presentation, so the best idea is for you to stop embarrassing yourself, and just keep quiet. Those of us who do understand it will continue to appreciate Aaron's comments on the subject.

You know Don wont. Its not in his DNA. Aaron's comments are much appreciated.

Mannie

Has Don ever got back to you about Biden meeting with Kim being diplomatic, from my recollections you have ALWAYS said that you would prefer that Biden never met with him.

No he hasn't. @DirtyBallast points it out so clearly. Don is a man who can dish it out but cries abuse when someone even just disagrees with him.

Because it is never Don is it?


Mannie

No, 2021 isn't finished yet, so comparing an annual figure makes no sense.

You don't know the answer - so stop pretending that you do.

No, I don't know the exact answer, but I have a 95% confidence interval that my answer is closer to correct than yours...

Only 61 days (plus a week or two for official publication), for the last 122 days of the year's statistics to be tabulated, and we will both see whether I am right, or whether you are. I'll autograph my one of my favourite data analysis books (Experimental Methods - An Introduction to the Analysis and Presentation of Data, by Les Kirkup) and post it to you if suicides in Victoria during 2021 end up above the 2020 count. If the 2021 count is more than 10% up on 2020 I'll go a step further and fly with the book to Sydney and have Prof. Kirkup autograph it for you too!

I have never drawn a single dollar of income from 'the government'

You work in a program set up and wholly-funded by taxpayers.

Correct or incorrect?

Not even smeg close to correct.

My God, Aaron - you seriously had time to write all that? I don't even have time to read it on my lunch break (and probably not after work either) and I certainly will not bother responding to the complete word salad you've just served up there.

I ' l l   t y p e   t h i s   s l o w l y   b e c a u s e   i t ' s   a p p a r e n t   y o u   c a n n o t   r e a d   f a s t .

It's not my fault you read slowly, I have mentioned before, I can type fast, I don't work for the government, my company/boss cannot afford for me to take hours to type a page, takes me longer to format the text for RP than it does to type it.

Obviously you don't have enough real work to do.

I typed that before I went to work, thank you for your concern, I did however forego planting four chilli seedlings - that's close to real work I guess.

One thing that sticks out is that you were saying I couldn't use one data point from earlier this year to conclude that suicides in Victoria were up - but then you back-track by saying 'the year isn't over yet'. Which suggests that you're not arguing honestly like RTT_Rules used to when he took me on.

I didn't use one data point, you know what one is don't you?

I used the whole year's worth of data, 243 data points from 01/01/21 to 31/08/21, saying 'the year isn't over yet' is a back track? You'd rather me suggest that the year is over? That's ... baffling.

The Victorian lockdown is essentially over now, so presumably lockdown suicides (if they ever existed) are hopefully over, so I am quite confident that we will see the Victorian suicide rate remain lower than last year, and the several years before too. Which pleases me a lot, I am genuinely fond of my copy of Kirkup.

In all seriousness, you've written so much there and it's so patronising and damn superior

Damn right what I wrote was superior, I specifically hoped that it would be, glad you noticed.

I just can't be bothered reading it.

That's a real shame, you might have learned something.

Learn to be more concise and more civil and I'll think about it.

Complex topics require verbose response, especially when you are so noted for taking singular unexplained points and crying foul.

We are well past being civil with you, I will approach every response to you with the subtlety of a sledgehammer until some real data and science actually hits home with you.

Yes, keep thinking about stuff, one day you'll have a correct thought - that's probability in action!

The Victorian lockdown is essentially over now, so presumably lockdown suicides (if they ever existed) are hopefully over, so I am quite confident that we will see the Victorian suicide rate remain lower than last year, and the several years before too. Which pleases me a lot, I am genuinely fond of my copy of Kirkup.

All lockdowns here would have long been essentially over if there hadn't been a botched quarantine programme, say if the federal government didn't tell states and territories to do it but just sent over their defence force, built quarantine facilities to replace used of big city hotels, and were tougher on people leaving the Trans-Tasman travel bubble.
Maybe even lockdowns of New Zealand, whole or in part, would also be essentially over if they also built quarantine facilities and moved it away from hotels (mostly in Auckland) and were also tough on people leaving the Trans-Tasman bubble.
At least the Morrison government has even allowed our citizens and permanent residents to leave just to attend conferences.

Surely it's better to live in a hermit kingdom with no capacity limits (other than pre-pandemic ones) than be stuck in lockdown.

Nah, it's not that at all Don, it's the fact that you cannot tell the truth about something, you said that there would be a massive suicide rate because of the lockdown's in Victoria, Aaron has called you out on it by citing to you some statistics citing that they are about normal or the same, and your point blank refusal to believe them, that's what's it's about.

NO - he cited statistics from last year. I want to know what happened over the five months that they were locked down this year.

Aaron criticised me for pulling out one single data point from earlier this year saying young girls had committed suicide at a much higher rate and was certain that this didn't translate into a higher rate in the overall population - and then copped out by saying the stats weren't available yet because they year wasn't over.

I want to know what actually happened - I'm not 'hoping' the rate was higher - I'm just saying if there was a huge increase in one cohort that probably it did translate. But at this stage we (apparently) don't know.

No, 2021 isn't finished yet, so comparing an annual figure makes no sense.

You don't know the answer - so stop pretending that you do.

No, I don't know the exact answer...

So don't pretend that you do.

I have never drawn a single dollar of income from 'the government'

You work in a program set up and wholly-funded by taxpayers.

Correct or incorrect?

Not even smeg close to correct.

Is your workplace funded by a contract from the Commonwealth - a contract pretty much uncontested so I reckon.

I work entirely in the private sector, Aaron - in fact my employer is fully 'trade exposed' to Thailand and China on Keating's "level playing field". We don't have lovely fat government contracts - we have to compete in the real world.

The reason why you think lock-downs are the right strategy is because you don't know anyone who has suffered, lost businesses, lost livelihoods or their house from it - it doesn't affect you - you can't see those people and therefore you don't care. You live in a bubble not exposed to the economic realities that other people are.

I'm right aren't I, Aaron.

Don won't admit that Aaron is right.

Don's first and second paragraphs of drivel in reply to Aaron's excellent, fact filled post, make it blatantly obvious that he's up s#!t creek without a paddle.

He'll try and change the topic soon or ignore everything that's been posted in an attempt to back away knowing he's been well and truly shown up!

He said that the suicide rate in 2021 was definitely the same as it was in 2020 and then couldn't produce numbers to support that assertion so he changed the goal-posts.

And like all the other sudden adorning fans you will change your mind the instant he says something you don't like... so savour it while you can because it won't last.

And you said in that other thread...well, you know.

don_duntsan, have you ever wondered why you regularly find yourself in an adversarial position on this board? Have you ever wondered why it is, that you have attracted so many adversaries? Have you ever realised what it is that your many adversaries have in common? It is dealing with YOU.

Now that you are criticising others for using the same tactics that are de rigueur for you all over the place, it doesn't matter that I will now address some of the smear that you threw at me in the Renewables thread, here.

I couldn't give two hoots whether you're on the spectrum or not, or whether you have some other sort of intellectual issue or not. Until yesterday I had no idea; I was only guessing. I have always attacked you for what you have said, not what you are. You see it differently - so what. Yes, maybe I have compared you with people who lack certain skills, but you've done nothing to break the stereotype. Rather, you have reinforced it.

To your credit you have never hidden behind your disability, but you have also totally failed to acknowledge that it is the reason why your brain/mouth/fingers come up with so much rubbish.

Come clean, and maybe the rest of us will go a little easier on you. Stonewall, and you will remain as fair game.

You hate people with intellectual disabilities, I get it.

"Run, Forest, run!"

You used that as a smear and I'm not going to let you forget that fact. You think you're all wonderfully inclusive and progressive but when it comes to dealing with adversaries like me you resort to using the disabled as an insult, which is pretty much as low as you can go.

And like all the other sudden adorning fans you will change your mind the instant he says something you don't like... so savour it while you can because it won't last.

STOP FOLLOWING FALSE PROPHETS AND ALL HAIL GURU DON, THE SOURCE OF ALL TRUTH ABOUT EVERYTHING!!!

If I wasn't here this whole discussion about COVID19 would be all you people furiously agreeing with each other that what happened was all correct and that the government did a great job - when obviously that's not the case. You can disagree with me but I'd prefer it if you kept it civil - you're also free to IGNORE me if you like.

I'm playing devil's advocate and for that I cop all sorts of abuse from you people including the disgusting behaviour of Dirty Ballast stooping to using the disabled as a smear, even though he thinks he's a progressive and righteous bloke. I bring out the very worst behaviour - good.

There's no need whatsoever for any of this - the fact that there's so many here who seem utterly incapable of civilised discussion means that I'm doing something right, I'm eliciting a strong emotional response because I've created dissonance. Again, good.

Aaron loves his stats; here's some interesting stats from last year:

909 Aussies died ‘with’ COVID19 in 2020
(38th all-cause deaths)
Average of deceased was 86.5
88.6% were already dying from unrelated chronic illness.
909 x 0.886=805
It means all but 104 would have died-whether diagnosed with COVID19 or not.
72% were in Aged Care


It sounds terrible to say it but those people were going to die anyway.

Again, we spent something like $700,000,000,000 (probably around that by the time you take all the state government spending into account) to save the lives of people who were going to die anyway. If we'd let it rip like Sweden would would have probably had a similar death rate (Sweden ended up with a similar death rate to other Nordic countries) and we would have saved hundreds of billions that won't have to be paid off by future generations.

I'm just making discussion about what happened, how it was dealt with and how it could have been better. If none of you can deal with this without resorting to personal abuse or insults then it just shows that you've got nothing.

And by the way - Israel is up to its fourth round of shots and it hasn't even been a year since the vaccines got released - you now need three shots to be eligible for the 'passport'. Are you all ready to get up to four needles every year? Because it looks like regular 'boosters' are the way of the future. Nobody was told this at the start of the year, it was in the territory of 'conspiracy theory' and yet now its come to pass.

It's the shifting ground and the obfuscation that I resent.

Nah, it's not that at all Don, it's the fact that you cannot tell the truth about something, you said that there would be a massive suicide rate because of the lockdown's in Victoria, Aaron has called you out on it by citing to you some statistics citing that they are about normal or the same, and your point blank refusal to believe them, that's what's it's about.

NO - he cited statistics from last year. I want to know what happened over the five months that they were locked down this year.

Errr ... Yes I did!

YTD suicides in Victoria (YTD being to 31/8/21 - September not being publicly published yet)

            Male    Female      Total
2017      325          131         456
2018      337          116         453
2019      361          119         480
2020      366          127         493
2021     335          104        439

We are in 2021 aren't we Don? Can you agree to that?

If so, can we also agree that 2020 was last year?

These are trivial observations.

Then we will get a little tougher, this will require some further cognition:

Can we agree that 439 is less than 493, 480, 453, and 456?

I'll prove it to you.

493 - 439 = 54; 480 - 439 = 41; 453 - 439 = 14; 456 - 439 = 17

Do you see it? I'll give you a hint, that we always have a positive result from our subtractions means that 439 must always be less than the other numbers!

So I presume the only point of debate here is whether 2019, 2018, and 2017 precede 2021 and 2020.

There should be a calendar on your phone or computer than can help you out with that.

Then there's the more salient point that I have been making, but it requires just a little mental abstraction, and it's this:

The Victorian lockdowns are now (I think) officially over. Now I wait in anticipation for the report for September to be published, and we will then await the publishing of the report for October, but that report will likely contain the very last of the 'lockdown suicides'. Yes, it could well be true that September and October could be containing some horrific numbers, but I think Victorians in general probably had quite some reductions in general anxiety, depression and all those other feels that lead people to bad places, and so I anticipate that the rate may well have even gone down with the appearance of the metaphorical light at the end of the tunnel.

Then we will wait to the end of the year publication and see if 2021 was an abnormally high, statistically on par with expectation, or abnormally low. I am predicting with high confidence it will be low, and almost certainly if not, at worst in line with expectation.

I have never drawn a single dollar of income from 'the government'

You work in a program set up and wholly-funded by taxpayers.

Correct or incorrect?

Not even smeg close to correct.

Is your workplace funded by a contract from the Commonwealth - a contract pretty much uncontested so I reckon.

I wrote that and you come back with 'funded by a contract from the Commonwealth'?

What do you want me to say?

NO!

As far as I know we have zero, we'll count that, ready? One, ... - no see, too far already, back that up a number, ZERO government contracts. Z E R O !

At the moment I think most of my money comes from US and South African listed companies, a few months ago it was predominantly German and an odd Swedish/Slovenian corporate structure, I really don't care so long as they pay me - make of that what you need to.

PRO TIP - Whilst all of that is totally true, I am not actually going to tell you Don - it's a secret.

I work entirely in the private sector, Aaron - in fact my employer is fully 'trade exposed' to Thailand and China on Keating's "level playing field". We don't have lovely fat government contracts - we have to compete in the real world.

I'd give you a round of applause, but I cannot type and clap at the same time.

My company competes in the real world too - to be honest, I am scared for your well being and mental health if you think there is some sort of artificial world. You should get those thoughts investigated, and treated.

The reason why you think lock-downs are the right strategy is because you don't know anyone who has suffered, lost businesses, lost livelihoods or their house from it - it doesn't affect you - you can't see those people and therefore you don't care. You live in a bubble not exposed to the economic realities that other people are.

I'm right aren't I, Aaron.

No.

The reason why you think lock-downs are the right strategy is because you don't know anyone who has suffered, lost businesses, lost livelihoods or their house from it - it doesn't affect you - you can't see those people and therefore you don't care. You live in a bubble not exposed to the economic realities that other people are.

You're so close to being right, I nearly thought you were going to get it! Such a shame, I nearly has to agree with you but you missed it. If only you said:

The reason why you think lock-downs are the right strategy is because you don't know anyone who has died from Covid.

You could have nailed it! So close, I'll give you a half point, but only because you got 90% of the sentence right.

The Victorian lockdowns are now (I think) officially over. Now I wait in anticipation for the report for September to be published, and we will then await the publishing of the report for October, but that report will likely contain the very last of the 'lockdown suicides'. Yes, it could well be true that September and October could be containing some horrific numbers, but I think Victorians in general probably had quite some reductions in general anxiety, depression and all those other feels that lead people to bad places, and so I anticipate that the rate may well have even gone down with the appearance of the metaphorical light at the end of the tunnel.

Then there is the point I have been making that may require a lot of mental abstraction:

Lockdowns in Australia and New Zealand would be (I speculate) over long ago, maybe even before the was a vaccine (which is still not available to all) if both countries had a (shared) national quarantine standard and shifted quarantine from hotels to facilities designed for that purpose and both countries agreed to be as tough as possible about our citizens and permanent residents leaving the Trans-Tasman travel bubble. This would mean not attending conferences, weddings or even funerals in COVID-laden countries unless going there under more extraordinary circumstances.
If we can live in a hermit kingdom (possibly with no capacity limits other than pre-pandemic ones), this is to be preferred over being stuck in lockdown.

And like all the other sudden adorning fans you will change your mind the instant he says something you don't like... so savour it while you can because it won't last.

STOP FOLLOWING FALSE PROPHETS AND ALL HAIL GURU DON, THE SOURCE OF ALL TRUTH ABOUT EVERYTHING!!!

If I wasn't here this whole discussion about COVID19 would be all you people furiously agreeing with each other that what happened was all correct and that the government did a great job - when obviously that's not the case. You can disagree with me but I'd prefer it if you kept it civil - you're also free to IGNORE me if you like.

I don't want to labour this point too heavily, but when you're in a group of people and they all think pretty much the same thing and you think differently, you're probably not the one who has it right.

Clearly I know that this is not always the case, and I know of examples where this was plainly untrue, but I also know for a fact that you cannot be either Richard Feynman or Carl Sagan.

So I am happy with my presumption via Occam's razor that you are most likely not the one who has it right.

By the way, data from the United Arab Emirates, the most vaccinated major sovereign nation, does suggest the transmission among the vaccinated is rare if the two doses are given at the right interval. Why do we expect the vaccinated to keep passing on the virus? High vaccination uptake has eliminated community transmission in many other cases.

Welcome back Don II - I am still not short of amazement at your self answering of questions.

Again, you've answered your own question, to highlight this, I'll just quote your post back to you in reverse order.

Why do we expect the vaccinated to keep passing on the virus?

Because we know that no Covid vaccine available today prevents transmission, no vaccine manufacturer has ever claimed that their vaccine could.

I think if you know this too, maybe you just don't want to believe it, maybe you have not thought about what you know enough to realise what you know.

By the way, data from the United Arab Emirates, the most vaccinated major sovereign nation, does suggest the transmission among the vaccinated is rare if the two doses are given at the right interval.

Notice your own words? Read them carefully:

the most vaccinated major sovereign nation

still has

transmission among the vaccinated

even if it

is rare

and even when

the two doses are given at the right interval.

there is still (again, because you keep missing it)

transmission among the vaccinated

Got it? See you wrote your own answer.

High vaccination uptake has eliminated community transmission in many other cases.

No it has not. You cannot show us a place where high vaccination rate has eliminated community transmission. That is admittedly a partial calling of your bluff, I certainly cannot be bothered attempting to chase down your potential facts from myth. I don't know for sure that vaccination has not lead to zero community transmissions but I am making a good guess based on knowledge of how the vaccines work, and more subtly banking on the fact that if you actually had evidence of this you would have just mentioned a case, instead of vaguely saying 'many cases' and hoping the rest of us would automatically accept it.

You know in Australia right now you have near 100% chance of catching the virus from a current resident of Australia, and a near 0% chance of catching the virus from a current resident of China don't you? That doesn't mean it will be safer for you to live in China. It just means that a person in China is more likely to be infected by another Chinese resident than by a resident of Australia.

This is not the case in Tasmania, Queensland, South Australia or Western Australia.

Yes it is the case! If anyone in any of those states becomes infected with the virus it is virtually guaranteed that their infection would be from a domestic source rather than foreign. Again, you've told us you know this yourself:

Along with New Zealand, we stopped passenger traffic from mainland China before it was declared a pandemic, that is in late January 2020.

So what is the chance of a Chinese sourced infection anywhere in Australia (or NZ since you included them) occurring 'right now'?

You wrote it yourself, there's effectively none of them here to catch it from...



This is the third time I have written this reply, sadly the original typing was the best, and I am not losing interest, blame your alter ego, it was too important that I try and correct your other ego's post, and this one got neglected, yes Don I, I only have so many minutes.

The Victorian lockdowns are now (I think) officially over. Now I wait in anticipation for the report for September to be published, and we will then await the publishing of the report for October, but that report will likely contain the very last of the 'lockdown suicides'. Yes, it could well be true that September and October could be containing some horrific numbers, but I think Victorians in general probably had quite some reductions in general anxiety, depression and all those other feels that lead people to bad places, and so I anticipate that the rate may well have even gone down with the appearance of the metaphorical light at the end of the tunnel.

Then there is the point I have been making that may require a lot of mental abstraction:

Lockdowns in Australia and New Zealand would be (I speculate) over long ago, maybe even before the was a vaccine (which is still not available to all) if both countries had a (shared) national quarantine standard and shifted quarantine from hotels to facilities designed for that purpose and both countries agreed to be as tough as possible about our citizens and permanent residents leaving the Trans-Tasman travel bubble. This would mean not attending conferences, weddings or even funerals in COVID-laden countries unless going there under more extraordinary circumstances.
If we can live in a hermit kingdom (possibly with no capacity limits other than pre-pandemic ones), this is to be preferred over being stuck in lockdown.

Perhaps you could ponder these abstractions instead:

Where would these places have been built?
How many would be built?
For how many people each?
At what cost?
Where would the staff come from?
Why would those staff be so keen to not see their families for MONTHS on end?
How much would the staff need to be paid to be away from their families for that long?
For the arrivals that became truly ill how do you get them to hospitals quickly?
  If you more or less have a hospital on site:
  a) Where did that money come from?
  b) Why do those Drs and nurses not want to see their families for MONTHS on end?
  c) How much are you paying them to be away from their families for that long?
Where does the food come from?

Depending on how you answer those there are still more questions.

The system of hotel quarantine was fine, certainly better than what you propose, the root cause of the long lockdowns in Victoria were the lack of curtailment of movement in the population.

...no Covid vaccine available today prevents transmission, no vaccine manufacturer has ever claimed that their vaccine could.

This is the same with all vaccines, take vaccines against polio and measles.

You cannot show us a place where high vaccination rate has eliminated community transmission. That is admittedly a partial calling of your bluff, I certainly cannot be bothered attempting to chase down your potential facts from myth. I don't know for sure that vaccination has not lead to zero community transmissions but I am making a good guess based on knowledge of how the vaccines work, and more subtly banking on the fact that if you actually had evidence of this you would have just mentioned a case, instead of vaguely saying 'many cases' and hoping the rest of us would automatically accept it.

We can find many places where this has been done with measles, even though the M.M.R vaccine is also less than 100% effective.

If anyone in any of those states becomes infected with the virus it is virtually guaranteed that their infection would be from a domestic source rather than foreign.

Unless a quarantine worker gets infected or some escaping quarantine infects someone else.

So what is the chance of a Chinese sourced infection anywhere in Australia (or NZ since you included them) occurring 'right now'?

It could happen in quarantine or if someone returning from there escapes quarantine. However, along with New Zealand, we were one of the few countries to stop travel from mainland China at a point when practically all infections in the world were Chinese sourced.

The United Arab Emirates has a population of over 9 million and only recorded 88 new cases yesterday.