So far, we have seen a classic contest between two mediocre sides. The batting of both teams has been abysmal, with England marginally better. The top six for Australia, all of whom are chosen as batsmen whose job is to make runs, made 109 runs between them. By stumps on day 1 it was apparent that Clarke's decision to bowl had not worked, albeit not helped by dropped or missed catches off Pietersen in particular. An old saw, attributed to W G Grace is, "When you win the toss; bat. If in doubt, think about it, then bat. If in serious doubt, consult a colleague, then bat." There has to be a real, all-consuming reason to bowl first, and there wasn't one.
But then, look at the Australian dismissals. Warner - a cross bat poke at a ball he should have left alone; Watson - bog standard flat-footed drive outside off and caught behind the wicket as usual; Clarke - here are the stumps, I'll play no shot and you hit them; Smith - poor footwork and impatience; Bailey - again showed that he is not a batsman of Test class; Rogers - well played until a rush of blood. For the whole series so far, Australia has had two reliable players - Haddin and Johnson. This time, Haddin had no assistance in his mission to yet again rescue the innings. I felt very sorry for Johnson when he walked out to bat. He should have had two days rest after his excellent bowling display, but has been cruelly let down by his team mates. I would not like to see this Australian team facing a top quality England attack such as Trueman, Statham, Laker and Lock.
England should win from here.