There are 30 flights each day, each direction, between SYD and CBR. That's about 2500 seats in each direction. Add to that the road coaches, 15 per day in each direction, 650+ seats in each direction. Most of these services are well patronised, let's call it around 3000 the demand for transport one-way between SYD and CBR. Plus those who use the highway in their own car or a rental car, some of whom would take the bus (if it were faster) or the plane (if it were cheaper).
So on the basis of price, speed, comfort, reliability and convenience (including convenience during transit), how many of those 3000-odd would be persuaded to use the train instead? And how much new business could be generated, from those who shun flying for example? I say, 1000 per day (each direction) at the most. That's certainly not 1 train per hour - maybe 6 trains per day?
So... first you argue that through routing via Canberra was [one of] the "biggest problem", now you argue that it doesn't support more than one train per hour?
Forecasts of patronage, given the many and varied assumptions, are available ... in the phase two report. In 2050
(remember - you need to project current figures forward over two decades to get an idea of what things might be like when the system starts running, let alone reaches maturity), the Sydney-Canberra service pattern is expected to move over 18800 people per day, while the Melbourne-Canberra service is expected to move 13900 people per day. This includes people picked up from and delivered to intermediate stations along the service pattern.
major airport pair passenger numbers and airport total passengers are available from BITRE. Canberra gets about 3 million passengers a year, say of which perhaps two million (adding numbers for Melbourne and Sydney together, completely ignoring Brisbane and Adelaide and the other minor pair airports) are likely to switch to HSR. Plus any stolen from buses or private vehicles or regional trains - which might be another million per year. That's give you a bit over 8000 per day for the current
market. The initial train configuration nominates 520 passengers, if you have a load factor of 75% at Canberra that's about 400 per train - so you are looking at about twenty services per day.)
These projects are designed to support productivity and provide options for interstate travel. They also provide some competition.
Coffee improves my productivity. I therefore expect you to pay for all the coffee that I drink.
There are plenty of options for interstate travel. There is plenty of competition.
While "everybody" wants this project, "nobody" wants to actually pay for it. I think it is great that moves are under way (at a federal and state level) to continue the planning for this project, but until "nobody" becomes "lots of people" this thing is a pipe dream.