I enjoy and appreciate this speculation as much as the next train freak - my belief is that despite what/how/when happened in China there's every likelihood that our current/future expectations being met will deviate due to,
1. A reduction of competition due to the fall of certain importers implicated by the above
2. Significant increases in pricing due to a) Chinese inflationary pressure and b) point 1
3. All of the above
I get the distinct feeling that I should appreciate and utilise this current phase because despite the apparent rosiness, I predict a medium term change
The fact that this market perpetuates is evidence that the majority of us are cashed-up, but the question is what is our 'pricepoint' cue for abstaining?
Another good post, and obviously I agree
The big thing that will effect our Hobby, is probably not so much quality of the models, but price.
Inflationary pressures rise prices overseas and yet wages and salaries stagnate here in Australia.
As people retire, their income for hobbies might increase for the short term, but I can attest it does not take long to see the light as reality shows us where that will take us.
The young get a job, and start to spend their money for a short few years, and again life steps in, and whisks them away to girlfriends, motor cars and more exciting things, until many years go by, and they seem to find their way back to the fold
Then profit taking by the big end of town, steps in with a financial Crisis or two and the money goes into food and just keeping the family together under a roof. It takes years to recover and we are always worse off when the Government talks recovery (Where else did they get their profits?)
When things go wrong any number of things contribute to a price that is unsustainable.
A $1300 Southern Aurora is not in my price range Nor is a 1200 XPt or a $1000 Daylight.
I guess $400 Diesels and $950 Steamers are lost to me and to many others.
I think its time for me to count past blessings and sit on what I have, sadly
And of course I hope the transients going through the good times can keep the importers busy