Federal Election 2016

 
  RTT_Rules Oliver Bullied, CME

Location: Dubai UAE
Interesting data

To set a seat (quota) for senate in Tas, you need ~27,000 and NSW about 260,000.

Tas has about 6% of the NSW population, in 1901, it was 12.5%.

NSW's population growth will only continue to outstrip Tas, hence the Senator's in NSW will over time get less candidates from smaller parties as getting a quota will be more difficult. Meanwhile Tas, NT etc are more likely to continue to supply Senators or more colorful backgrounds.

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  Aaron The Ghost of George Stephenson

Location: University of Adelaide SA
That's why the greens were always able to do so well in the Tasmanian senate but didn't get lower house seats.

I don't one should rule out Julie Bishop for backing Turnbull over Abbott, she's a political survivor and is very good at her job. I don't think she's gone as far as she can, I can't see her retiring and I think the top gig might yet be hers.

I think it will be Andrews or Bishop (if the leadership changes at all) and I wouldn't necessarily rule out Abbott either.

One thing is for sure, the party won't make the mistake of polling those that were never going to vote for the party regardless of leader again. That was the mistake with Turnbull, he became popular outside the party, but most of his popularity base was never going to vote for the party anyway.
  Bogong Chief Commissioner

Location: Essendon Aerodrome circa 1980
... Meanwhile Tas, NT etc are more likely to continue to supply Senators or more colorful backgrounds.
RTT_Rules
Well not the NT. All states get 12 senators with half of them up for election every 3 years (Except during rare double dissolutions like the election just past.)

So with 6 spots in each state up for grabs at most polls, the quota to get a senate spot is 14.4% of the vote, so election of "colourful" senators is still possible, even with the recent reforms to the way ballot papers are presented (which was backed by an unholy combination of Greens, Libs and Nats).

However the territories only get 2 senators each and they are both up for election every 3 years. So the quota for a territory senator is 33.4%. I suspect only Labour and Liberal can ever get a vote that high.
  apw5910 Chief Commissioner

Location: Location: Location.
NSW's population growth will only continue to outstrip Tas
RTT_Rules
The ACT's population will soon outstrip Tasmania's. But we'll continue to only get two senators to their 12. I don't want yet more pollies with their snouts in the trough, but this is an imbalance that should be dealt with (I know why it's there historically, so save the lectures about state's rights). No wonder the fringe parties all flock to Tasmania.
  Valvegear Oliver Bullied, CME

Location: Richmond Vic
Nikki Savas' book, "The Road to Ruin" is compulsory reading.
Abbott absolutely savaged Julie Bishop, claiming that she had conspired in his downfall but, according to Savas, Bishop stayed well out of the numbers game until the actual vote in Abbott v Turnbull.
  Bogong Chief Commissioner

Location: Essendon Aerodrome circa 1980
NSW's population growth will only continue to outstrip Tas
The ACT's population will soon outstrip Tasmania's. But we'll continue to only get two senators to their 12. I don't want yet more pollies with their snouts in the trough, but this is an imbalance that should be dealt with (I know why it's there historically, so save the lectures about state's rights). No wonder the fringe parties all flock to Tasmania.
apw5910
Well, the constitution guarantees an equal number of senators for each state and the only way it can be changed is by holding a referendum that gets a majority of voters in a majority of states in favour. That will never happen as while NSW and Vic might be in favour, the other states would never vote to see their political influence diminished.

However one way to slightly improve this disparity would be to increase the number of senators from the territories, perhaps from two to four with the territory senators getting a normal 6 year senate term and half of them up for election every 3 years. This would preserve the 33.4% quota to get elected to the senate in the territories meaning the major parties might support it as there would still be no chance of minor parties getting a territory senator.

However the constitution also specifies that the House of Reps should have as near as possible to double the number of senators. So if the territories were to get an extra 4 senators between them, then an extra 8 seats would need to be created in the lower house.
  RTT_Rules Oliver Bullied, CME

Location: Dubai UAE
NT quota is roughly the same as Tas, so doubling the territories would mean in the NT you would only need 12,000 votes vs NSW 260,000. ACT would also drop to 38,000.

Only way to get change via a referendum is to keep Qld and WA on side. Currently they are 160,000 and 85,000 respectively so you would need to increase the representation of WA in the senate as the minimum and this will be difficult if NSW and Vic are going to nearly double their representation.

Agree its a problem that cannot be easily fixed and unfortunately the extra seats generated in the 80's made the situation worse. Tas and SA population growth is just above near flat line and not likely to change in a hurry. With overall population growth the lower and upper house numbers will continue to grow, however I would not expect either major party to support or promote growth of the Senate. However if this does happen, Tas representation will become increasingly skewed and ridiculously small.

I'm sure at some point in the distant future there will be some very hard questions asked why NSW is pushing 500,000 and Tas barely 10,000!
  Aaron The Ghost of George Stephenson

Location: University of Adelaide SA
The senate members are there to represent their state/territory, the quota size is irrelevant, they're always representing 1/6 of the their state
  freightgate Minister for Railways

Location: Albury, New South Wales
Has the senate been decided ?
  RTT_Rules Oliver Bullied, CME

Location: Dubai UAE
The senate members are there to represent their state/territory, the quota size is irrelevant, they're always representing 1/6 of the their state
Aaron
Would be nice, but I think personal/political agendas probably take greater precedent.
  RTT_Rules Oliver Bullied, CME

Location: Dubai UAE
Has the senate been decided ?
freightgate
http://vtr.aec.gov.au/HouseDefault-20499.htm
  Valvegear Oliver Bullied, CME

Location: Richmond Vic
The Senate cannot be decided until after the closing date for receipt of postal and absentee votes. Only then can quotas be finally determined.
  Bogong Chief Commissioner

Location: Essendon Aerodrome circa 1980
The Senate cannot be decided until after the closing date for receipt of postal and absentee votes. Only then can quotas be finally determined.
Valvegear
Ermm, that's partly my fault. Crying or Very sad

I voted absentee in Copenhagen and had to queue for 15 minutes at the tiny little three room Australian embassy in an office building. They appeared to be a bit overwhelmed by the number of expats and tourists in Denmark who wanted to vote.
  apw5910 Chief Commissioner

Location: Location: Location.
I voted absentee in Copenhagen and had to queue for 15 minutes at the tiny little three room Australian embassy in an office building. They appeared to be a bit overwhelmed by the number of expats and tourists in Denmark who wanted to vote.
Bogong
Bet if Mary could still vote they would have paid a lot more attention to details!
  Brianr Deputy Commissioner

Location: Dunedin, New Zealand
I voted absentee in Copenhagen and had to queue for 15 minutes at the tiny little three room Australian embassy in an office building. They appeared to be a bit overwhelmed by the number of expats and tourists in Denmark who wanted to vote.
Bet if Mary could still vote they would have paid a lot more attention to details!
apw5910
Laughing
In 2010 in a long queue to board the overnight ship to the UK from Denmark, the customs official stopped, smiled and said "Ah Australian"
Now that I have 2 passports the only other place I am likely to use the Australian passport is Denmark.
Mary, like me, would have lost the right to vote in Australia, having left for 6 years. Americans never lose the right to vote and I will always have the right to vote in NZ as long as I return once every 3 years. I return on a visit to Australia at least twice per year but still no vote.
  Carnot Minister for Railways

The senate voting is throwing up some surprises.  Especially in Tasmania: http://www.abc.net.au/news/2016-07-19/tasmanian-labor-senator-lisa-singh-poised-for-victory/7641752

This caught my attention:
Some above-the-line ballots quite strange: analystUnder new voting rules introduced last year, voters in 2016 were able - for the first time - to number their Senate picks above the line.
Last week Dr Bonham remarked that some ballots went "all over the place".
Asked whether that remained the case as the ballot-tallying continued, Dr Bonham said it did.

"I've seen cases like people voting One for the Shooter, Fishers and Farmers, and Two for the Animal Justice Party, two parties that are more or less totally opposed to each other in the views," he said.
"I saw people voting for the Sex Party, then Family First - one exists to basically negate the other."
"People are viewing parties in quite a strange way."
  Groundrelay Chief Commissioner

Location: Surrounded by Trolls!
The senate voting is throwing up some surprises.  Especially in Tasmania: http://www.abc.net.au/news/2016-07-19/tasmanian-labor-senator-lisa-singh-poised-for-victory/7641752

This caught my attention:
Some above-the-line ballots quite strange: analystUnder new voting rules introduced last year, voters in 2016 were able - for the first time - to number their Senate picks above the line.
Last week Dr Bonham remarked that some ballots went "all over the place".
Asked whether that remained the case as the ballot-tallying continued, Dr Bonham said it did.

"I've seen cases like people voting One for the Shooter, Fishers and Farmers, and Two for the Animal Justice Party, two parties that are more or less totally opposed to each other in the views," he said.
"I saw people voting for the Sex Party, then Family First - one exists to basically negate the other."
"People  are viewing parties in quite a strange way."
Carnot
Many Aussie voters like checks and balances Wink
That's why it's common for voters to pick differently between the two houses.
  MetroFemme Assistant Commissioner

The seat of Herbert is now under going a recount with the ALP the winner of that seat so does this mean the seats the Libs have is now 75?
  Carnot Minister for Railways

The seat of Herbert is now under going a recount with the ALP the winner of that seat so does this mean the seats the Libs have is now 75?
MetroFemme
No.  They have 76 in the bag.  If the LNP win Herbert, that's 77.
  don_dunstan Dr Beeching

Location: Adelaide proud
77 seats - a majority of 2. Like Poodles Pyne said, they're an election-winning machine aren't they...

EDIT: MP George Christensen is already threatening to cross the floor over superannuation - I have a feeling that Malcolm won't last the full three years.
  Aaron The Ghost of George Stephenson

Location: University of Adelaide SA
George Christensen is a dick, the 'sugar plum fairy' has probably been offered a cream cake by Shorten.
  RTT_Rules Oliver Bullied, CME

Location: Dubai UAE
Not directly related to this election by the comment below is for the upcoming plebiscite.

http://www.abc.net.au/news/2016-07-24/plebiscite-only-way-to-resolve-same-sex-marriage-george-brandis/7656350

But Labor has accused the Coalition of caving into conservative demands after Senator Brandis indicated the results of the vote would be published on an electorate-by-electorate basis.

"This subterfuge allows conservative MPs opposed to same-sex marriage to defy a national 'yes' vote and vote against same-sex marriage, and justify that behaviour by pointing to the vote in their electorate," shadow attorney-general Mark Dreyfus said in a statement.

Some conservative MPs who are opposed to same-sex marriage have indicated they will take into account the way their electorate voted when casting their own vote on the floor of Parliament.

The ABC understands that by counting the results on a seat by seat basis, it would be in keeping with past practices.




I have no interest in discussing the actual topic of the proposed plebiscite or which way people should vote or why, my point is purely aimed at the process discussed above.

So if I understand it correctly, some MP's have stated they will vote in the house to represent the majority of their constituents wanted and others think there is something wrong about it! If the people who just 4-5mths back voted you into the house to represent them are going to be formerly asked what they think on a specific subject at significant expense, then in my book you have no right to vote against them in the house on the same subject! i.e. they vote YES, you vote YES!

Again I stress this is nothing to do with the topic of the plebiscite, rather the process.
  don_dunstan Dr Beeching

Location: Adelaide proud
Final senate results announced this morning and it's a total disaster for the major parties with Pauline Hanson's One Nation winning a total of four senate seats across the nation with two in Queensland, one in NSW and one in WA. The results were particularly bad for the Liberals having lost three senate spots and the Greens with one senator going.

The mainstream parties (including the Greens) are on the nose with the electorate, no doubt about it.
  Carnot Minister for Railways

Interesting to see David Leyonhjelm of the gun-luvin' LDP returned.  Oh dear....
  don_dunstan Dr Beeching

Location: Adelaide proud
Interesting to see David Leyonhjelm of the gun-luvin' LDP returned.  Oh dear....
Carnot
And South Australia sends Bob Day to Canberra on the very smallest of primary votes - a win for the Cory Bernardis of the world I'm sure. I'm also a bit concerned that Derryn Hinch will use his place in parliament as a soapbox to "name and shame" wrongly accused people but we'll soon find out I guess...

I think it's p*ss-funny that Pauline won four senate seats - the Laberal Party did everything they possibly could to stop her from coming back and yet she's back bigger than ever. On the ABC's Q&A the other week people were accusing her of drumming up racism but I actually think the mainstream parties need to take a good look at themselves and realise that people are voting for One Nation and NXT because they don't feel they have an alternative with voting Labor/Liberal/Green. So offer them something they want to vote for!

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