Who is winning The RACE (part 2)?

 
  comtrain Chief Commissioner

Location: Near Albury Wodonga
I enjoy and appreciate this speculation as much as the next train freak - my belief is that despite what/how/when happened in China there's every likelihood that our current/future expectations being met will deviate due to,

1. A reduction of competition due to the fall of certain importers implicated by the above
2. Significant increases in pricing due to a) Chinese inflationary pressure and b) point 1
3. All of the above

I get the distinct feeling that I should appreciate and utilise this current phase because despite the apparent rosiness, I predict a medium term change

The fact that this market perpetuates is evidence that the majority of us are cashed-up, but the question is what is our 'pricepoint' cue for abstaining?
gw0071

Another good post, and obviously I agree Smile
The big thing that will effect our Hobby, is probably not so much quality of the models, but price.
Inflationary pressures rise prices overseas and yet wages and salaries stagnate here in Australia.
As people retire, their income for hobbies might increase for the short term, but I can attest it does not take long to see the light as reality shows us where that will take us.
The young get a job, and start to spend their money for a short few years, and again life steps in, and whisks them away to girlfriends, motor cars and more exciting things, until many years go by, and they seem to find their way back to the fold Smile
Then profit taking by the big end of town, steps in with a financial Crisis or two and the money goes into food and just keeping the family together under a roof. It takes years to recover and we are always worse off when the Government talks recovery (Where else did they get their profits?)

When things go wrong any number of things contribute to a price that is unsustainable.
A $1300 Southern Aurora is not in my price range Nor is a 1200 XPt or a $1000 Daylight.
I guess $400 Diesels and $950 Steamers are lost to me and to many others.

I think its time for me to count past blessings and sit on what I have, sadly
And of course I hope the transients going through the good times can keep the importers busy Wink
Cheers
Rod

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  Roachie Chief Commissioner

Location: Kadina SA (formerly NSW)
The price of the models we are currently enjoying (to me) is quite okay.

Back around 1986, when I had no kids and reasonable income, I paid $850- each for the 5 Mansfield Garratts I had to have....these were all in mint brass (ie: unpainted).

Now, almost 30 years later we are paying approximately the same for a DCC + sound model of the same loco; albeit in plastic. The detail level (in my opinion) is equal to the brass model and the running/hauling capabilities are just as good (once I modified the boiler mounting set-up admittedly). In that ensuing 25 to 30 years, wages/inflation have had the effect of making the Eureka Garratt MUCH cheaper than the Mansfield Brass version.

I'm not saying I want the likes of Eureka et al to increase their prices.....it's just that I feel that the current crop of models (diesel and steam) are MUCH better value for money than what we were paying back in the 70s and 80s.

$220 for a highly detailed 48 class is, to my way of thinking, EXTREMELY cheap.....that's why I've ordered (and fully paid for) five of them IN ADDITION to the six Trainorama 48s that I am also anxiously awaiting.

I guess my price point cut-off, if I had to nominate it, would be in the order of $400- for a model of the quality of, say, the Auscision 422 etc. In my case, I have to allow for an extra $100- or so for every loco I buy, to pay for a decoder/speaker.

Roachie
  comtrain Chief Commissioner

Location: Near Albury Wodonga
Bill I think we are talking the same thing Smile
Except you are talking about an unsustainable extraordinary,pay it now price of $220 Wink which will be $295 soon enough, but they reserve the right to change specs or adjust prices. If the 20% wages rise causes Regal Way to lift prices and the Australian Dollar indeed plateaus at $0.75 ? I feel certain the $300 barrier will be breached by all Companies.

But I am saying the same thing as you. A non articulated steamer at $900 or any diesel over $400 is going to stall any intentions I have to get those last few items.
My BGM K Class cost about $325 and I had to give up smoking a pack a day at $3 a pack to save for each of the 7 engines I bought over 4 years. Fortunately my missus agreed to that, or I would never have bought one. As the benefits of my Superannuation shrink under inflation, I might have to give up the car to purchase plastic RTR Very Happy
Cheers
Rod
  comtrain Chief Commissioner

Location: Near Albury Wodonga
hmm?? notification for a post that is strangely missing Sad
Rod
  5711 Assistant Commissioner

Yep - might time to update the race.
Silver City Comet & 421 are ready to be popped in!
  a6et Minister for Railways

Bill I think we are talking the same thing Smile
Except you are talking about an unsustainable extraordinary,pay it now price of $220 Wink which will be $295 soon enough, but they reserve the right to change specs or adjust prices. If the 20% wages rise causes Regal Way to lift prices and the Australian Dollar indeed plateaus at $0.75 ? I feel certain the $300 barrier will be breached by all Companies.

But I am saying the same thing as you. A non articulated steamer at $900 or any diesel over $400 is going to stall any intentions I have to get those last few items.
My BGM K Class cost about $325 and I had to give up smoking a pack a day at $3 a pack to save for each of the 7 engines I bought over 4 years. Fortunately my missus agreed to that, or I would never have bought one. As the benefits of my Superannuation shrink under inflation, I might have to give up the car to purchase plastic RTR Very Happy
Cheers
Rod
comtrain

Lets not forget either that it was a few years back now, perhaps 2-3 or something that a news release when JE was still puting out paper news was that the time of the less than $300.00 was fast approaching, also shown up in the last few basix range of diesels.

I would suggest that the only reason for the lowish price for the 81/G/BL was the time delay & the full price paid to the old SDK factory had been based on the old exchange rates.  Now they sit at $295.00 each.

Its been a well known aspect that prior to this years wage rise announcement of 20% per year for 5 years the average Chinese lower skilled workers have been granted annual wage increases based on the inflation rate, which has fluctuated over the times but sat pretty much on average at 6-7%.

Auscision also mentioned the rises earlier this year, but they said they would be trying to cover as much as they could, how long they can keep their prices under the $300.00 mark is going to be interesting indeed. Maybe when the 2nd 20% increase takes place after the next CNY the $320.00 price may well be more common.

Another point to consider is when bogie R/S was first introduced at $60.00 each generally in packs of 3, & the $40.00 per 4 wheelers, & $110.00 for passenger R/S that is now the cheapest generally from all of the importers, & what of next year for rerun models, let alone new ones.
  DQ2004 Chief Commissioner

Location: Hobart -where the rain has lumps in it
hmm?? notification for a post that is strangely missing Sad
Rod
comtrain

I did a post and all my text was deleted other than a couple of commas.

I didn't have time to go through and do it all again.

I should point out that the Auscision 421 was added to The RACE way back in March, although we did think it wouldn't arrive til 2016, that now seems pessimistic and it will almost certainly arrive next year.

More soon.

Regards,

Toby
  Roachie Chief Commissioner

Location: Kadina SA (formerly NSW)
I did a post and all my text was deleted other than a couple of commas.

DQ2004

I thought that I was the only poor bar-stard who had that sort of thing happen!!! I feel your pain Toby!!

Roachie
  DQ2004 Chief Commissioner

Location: Hobart -where the rain has lumps in it
The post was just about noting that we had mentioned the 421 as early as March, as well as the recent revelation of SDS Models entering the RACE.
Also of significance was that at March we foreshadowed that Auscision had a lot of work to do if they were going to get everything out that they said they were going to get out in 2014, and that clearly this has been a bit of a failure as the 86 class is going to be their only loco release of 2014 as it stands at the moment.
Their website still says '2014' for quite a number of other models, but that won't be the case.

Incidentally I should note that the 2013 record of 9 new releases is now very safe with the delay of the V/Locities and the 45 class.

The only question remaining for 2014 is will the Trainorama 830 & 48 class arrive before the 31st?!?

More soon,


The Boys from THE RACE
  kingfisher Chief Train Controller

I did a post and all my text was deleted other than a couple of commas.

I didn't have time to go through and do it all again.
DQ2004

Has happened to me on other forums and is very frustrating. Prepare your comment in Microsoft Word then save it and then do a copy and paste
  comtrain Chief Commissioner

Location: Near Albury Wodonga
Has happened to me on other forums and is very frustrating. Prepare your comment in Microsoft Word then save it and then do a copy and paste
kingfisher

Yes Its good to do this for all posts Smile
Cheers
Rod
  DQ2004 Chief Commissioner

Location: Hobart -where the rain has lumps in it
THE ENDLESS WAR
"The war is not meant to be won, it is meant to be continuous."
With thanks to George Orwell we can't help but notice that we are still here, eight years later and the same stuff is still going on. Some models have come out in that time though!!
Lets see what's been going on:

Arrivals for 2014:
Austrains Vic G class
Haskell Vic Na class (On30)
Austrains SA 700 class (re-run)
Austrains NSW 442 class (re-run)
Austrains SA BL class
Austrains NSW 81 class
Roco Vic F class
Auscision NSW 86 class

2014
December:
Trainorama NSW 48 class ..maybe?
Trainorama SA 830 class ...or maybe not.

2015
January:
Southern Rail Vic V/Locity sets
Auscision NSW 45 class

February:
Auscision NSW 46 class

March:

Wuiske Qld 1550 class
Auscision Vic L class electric

April:
Auscision GT46C-ACe (LDP, TT, WH, GWA classes)

May:
Bendigo Rail Vic P class
Austrains NR class(re-run w/NR18 +others)
Trainorama NSW 48 class (re-run, additional colour schemes originally planned for firstrun)
Trainorama SA 830 class (same story)
Austrains Vic T class (re-run)

June:
Auscision NSW 421 class
Shrike NSW C30T class
Eureka NSW D50 class

July:
Southern Rail QLD 2300 class
Southern Rail WA DFZ class

August:
**Please note EVERYTHING currently listed for beyond this date is at risk of not even arriving in 2015. You have been warned.

September:
Auscision NSW XPT set

October:
Eureka Vic K class

November:
Powerline NSW 81 class –re-run, new mechanism (a new total guess)
Powerline Vic G class –re-run, new mechanism
Powerline SA BL class –re-run, new mechanism

December:
Auscision C43/C44ACi (AC, 93, 93, 6000, 6020, ACB, XRN, CF, GWU, CEY, 5020 classes!!)
Auscision NSW 43 class
Auscision NSW Tangara sets
Auscision Vic X class series 1
Eureka NSW 40 class
Railmotor Models SCT class

2016
Early:
SDS NSW Silver City Comet
Bendigo Rail Vic T class series I (re-run later colour schemes)
Powerline NSW 48 class (re-run, candy, John Holland?)
Southern Rail WA L class diesel

Mid:
Eureka NSW C38 class (re-run)
Eureka NSW 620/720 railcars (re-run)
Trainorama NSW 47 class (re-run)
Trainorama NSW 49 class (re-run)

Late:
Auscision NSW V set
Auscision NSW 48 class
Auscision SA 830 class
Southern Rail QLD 2000 class railmotors
Ixion NSW C32 class (low-frame)
Shrike SA Rx class
Eureka NSW D53 class

2017
Southern Rail WA L class (re-run, other colours)
Eureka R class (re-run, WCR versions)
Eureka NSW DEB set
Eureka NSW D59 class
Auscision CFCLA GL class
Railmotor CSR/BK class

2018 and BEYOND
Eureka SMR 10 class
Eureka NSW D55 class
Eureka VR A2 class
Eureka VR N class
Eureka SAR 750 class
Eureka NSW D57 class
Eureka NSW D58 class
Trainorama NSW 45 class – will they still happen?
Trainorama SA 600 class – possibly not
Trainorama WA L class – and no news
Minimodels NSW Tangara sets - another model that may not happen
Eureka NSW C30 class - unlikely to happen
Eureka NSW Silver City Comet - now very unlikely (see SDS in 2016!)

Notes:
WellI don't know about you, but we found that really rather interesting. In March 2014 we were talking about just how difficult it was going to be for Auscision to get all of it's planned releases out during the year and of course they've only managed ONE - the NSW 86 class electrics.
Of course in terms of getting it wrong WE missed that in a big way - we were predicting them to arrive next year, and instead were still believing comments from Auscision that certain things would arrive sometime around mid-year. Of course, none of it happened and now we've got to consider whether or not some things will actually arrive next year or not!
No matter what happens though, one thing does seem (almost) certain; 2015 will be Auscision's biggest year ever.

Regarding everyone else, we have of course had three additional companies join the RACE in recent months, Ixion, Wuiske and most recently SDS. Of these Wuiske have clearly been plotting the longest, with painted samples already on show.
As always, predicting realistic time frames is still phenomenally difficult. Many may wonder - why can't the producers get this right? Of course the answer is because the factories don't get it right. They will make pronouncements based on what the clients want, but then all it takes is for errors to creep in (almost inevitable) and then the correcting process will inevitably cause delays. It's certainly worth noting that 2014 was predicted to be a huge year but almost everything that was predicted to arrive at some point...didn't at all.
So we must bear that in mind and remember that it could easily be the same again.
Therefore our predicted list for things could and in fact is pretty much guaranteed to be wrong in almost every way, and we could go further by saying that everything currently in the latter half of the year's estimates may not even show up at all in 2014!
Sometimes this stuff is depressing. However, because the RACE officials got their 86 class this year (finally), they really don't care that much.
Regarding some of the other companies;
Southern Rail really hit the go slow this past year with no doubt many problems with factories although it's worth noting that the V/Locities have gone from pre-production samples to shipping in less than twelve months. The problem was really that they were announced well before the tooling had begun. The same could be said of the 2300 class which are now greatly delayed from what was originally announced. Progress needs to be seen very soon for these if they are to have any hope of arriving in 2015. As for the L class we have decided to be pessimistic from the get go here.


Austrains seem to be on the shut-down with re-runs of the T & NR classes being the only things left to be done. However despite the 'we want to retire' proclamations there was then that strange announcement that proprietor J.Eassie was about to commence work on a joint-venture project to produce British outline 00 scale models! Which doesn't sound like retirement. Somewhat annoying to think that the proceeds of Australian outline models may now seemingly assist the British market.


We should add in relation to recent posts that we have also heard about a new tooling 80 class but we can't say much more at this time. The RACE officials are aware of a few other things in the pipeline however its probably best not to clutter up the RACE with these things until the various companies decide to officially announce them. All that would result is angst from an even greater delay, after all.


Regarding the list itself, you'll note that the 2018 and beyond list now contains quite a few things that probably won't happen. Indeed if there is no news soon then we may well just delete them to avoid clogging up otherwise useful space. Certainly anyone who is thinking that the Eureka D57's & D58's will show up in 2018, well I'm afraid that's actually very unlikely. It's just that Eureka mentioned that they were on the 'to do list' way back in the distant past, so we put it on our list. But we've learnt that especially in Eureka's case, that pretty much means squat. I should add that for Eureka to release the D50, the K and the 40 class next year is also probably ridiculously optimistic. Maybe one of those. ... or maybe none of them. Your guess is likely as good as ours!


Regards,


The Boys From The RACE.
  John_Bushell Chief Commissioner

Location: Brisbane
Thanks Toby.  Always a good read.

You gave Adam & Jade a good rating there for their 1550 release.  Even if it does not arrive by March I think first half of this year would be a good effort.  They have a vid on their FB page if anyone would like to see the 1550.  Probably more QLXs and curtainsiders than 1550s, but some excellent examples of weathering in the modern era in the vid.  https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2AHLrw-79jE&feature=youtu.be

That damn model has sucked me into getting some 12mm gauge stuff.  Arggh!

Best regards,
John
  DQ2004 Chief Commissioner

Location: Hobart -where the rain has lumps in it
2014
SO...
How did we do?
Well we've managed just six new releases out of what was a mammoth list at the start of the year.  And you'll note that the Mammoth is extinct, so there's a clue there.
Here's March's list of predictions for the year and a note beside each to see how we went (very badly, as it happens).

Note that the Austrains Vic G class had arrived in February (some, anyway).

2014
March:
Austrains SA BL class - Actually AUGUST
Austrains NSW 81 class - Actually AUGUST
Austrains NSW 442 class (re-run) - CORRECT!! Smile
Austrains SA 700 class (re-run) - CORRECT!! Smile

August:
Bendigo Rail Vic P class - NO, now 2015
Austrains NR class (re-run w/NR18 +others) - NO, now 2015

September:
Auscision GT46C-ACe (LDP, TT, WH, GWA classes) - NO, now 2015
Powerline NSW 81 class –re-run, new mechanism (a total guess) - NO, now...who knows?
Powerline Vic G class –re-run, new mechanism - NO - ditto
Powerline SA BL class –re-run, new mechanism - NO - ditto
Southern Rail Vic V/Locity sets - NO, now Jan 2015
Roco Vic F class - Actually AUGUST

October:
Trainorama NSW 48 class - Actually DECEMBER
Eureka NSW 620/720 railcars (re-run) - NO, now maybe 2015...but maybe not

November:
Powerline NSW 48 class (re-run, candy,other colours?) - NO, now... who knows?
Auscision NSW 46 class - NO, now maybe Feb/March 2015

December:
Auscision C43/C44ACi (AC, 93, 93, 6000, 6020, ACB, XRN, CF, GWU, CEY, 5020 classes!!) - NO, now maybe late 2015!
Trainorama SA 830 class - NO, now Jan/Feb 2015
Eureka NSW 40 class - optimism fading fast on this arriving this year - NO, optimism dead in a ditch, who knows


So looking at that, really, we didn't do very well! Oops:

Not only that, we didn't even predict the Auscision 86 class to arrive this year and yet it did, albeit at the very end of November.
Mind you it had been on the list for so long with so little news it was very hard to be sure about it.

Thirteen items that we had on the list for the year (some admittedly very tentative) that didn't make it at all (yes some will be close, but close is not enough).
Only one got in that wasn't on the list.


At the moment we have a huge list of new releases for 2015.  Clearly there's no way that they will all make it either.
We're going to have to be very ruthless with what we're being told and what we therefore predict.


Don't expect it to be pretty.

But do have a good Christmas, and may Santa bring you heaps of trains. ...or maybe you've just bought them yourself, whatever.



Regards,

The boys from THE RACE.
  Iain Chief Commissioner

Location: Concord, NSW
Well I think some award (the Eureka prize) should be given to ROCO whose F class came out early!

Did Eureka or Powerline actually release anything this year?

Cheers Iain
  comtrain Chief Commissioner

Location: Near Albury Wodonga
When your making the 2015 list, interestingly you can add the Austrains T Class re-runs which were promised as a last rerun at Liverpool2014. I am also wondering if he might do an  extra T Class as well, as he has a complete project with a part finished die never released Very Happy
Cheers
Rod
  DQ2004 Chief Commissioner

Location: Hobart -where the rain has lumps in it
Well I think some award (the Eureka prize) should be given to ROCO whose F class came out early!

Did Eureka or Powerline actually release anything this year?

Cheers Iain
Iain

The prizes are called Dugongs. We might award one although the month early only beat our prediction, not theirs.

Eureka and Powerline only released rollingstock this year.

Rod, if you look to the last RACE update you'll see the Austrains T re-run has already been added.

Cheers

Toby
  comtrain Chief Commissioner

Location: Near Albury Wodonga
Ah! thanks, my speed reading skills have indeed suffered Sad
Cheers
Rod
  Factory_Fill Deputy Commissioner

Location: Melbourne VIC
Its been well over 9 months since the last race update.

With the year of Aucision Precision upon us, i suggest its time to clear the decks for a fresh update.

Anyone from the committee of excellence listening?
  DQ2004 Chief Commissioner

Location: Hobart -where the rain has lumps in it
Its been well over 9 months since the last race update.

With the year of Aucision Precision upon us, i suggest its time to clear the decks for a fresh update.

Anyone from the committee of excellence listening?
Factory_Fill
I have to admit that I have not logged on to RP for some time until today.
There have been RACE updates during the year on a group on FB, but for my own reasons I have left that group.

I had also created a new format which made for much easier reading, so I'm not sure how I'm going to do those updates to here.

However I will tell you this;

The record of New Release Models in a single year has been well and truly shattered this year.
The previous record was 9 in 2013.
Now we are currently at 14! With one more practically days away plus at least another two or three due to show up before the end of the year.
As you say it certainly is the year of Auscision with six/seven releases (depending how you count) from them alone.  Assuming they get everything out that they say they will, they are likely to break the record on their own!

We're going to award a Silver Dugong to Haskell for the speedy arrival of their L class, and almost certainly another Silver Dugong to Southern for their L class.

Next year's list currently has over 25 items on it (about nine are re-runs) including recent new announcements from IDR and Bergs.

Regards
  Roachie Chief Commissioner

Location: Kadina SA (formerly NSW)
This thread was last active 16 pages ago....

Just wondering whether Toby has the stats for 2016 (and even the complete 2015 year).

Curious....

Roachie
  c3526blue Deputy Commissioner

Location: in the cuckoos nest
This thread was last active 16 pages ago....

Just wondering whether Toby has the stats for 2016 (and even the complete 2015 year).

Curious....

Roachie
Roachie
Roachie,

Shouldn't that be 16 MONTHS (not pages)?

Someone has to do the work.  If not just let it go to sleeeeeep.............

Happy counting,

John
  kingfisher Chief Train Controller

This thread was last active 16 pages ago....

Just wondering whether Toby has the stats for 2016 (and even the complete 2015 year).

Curious....

Roachie
Roachie
Tobin last visited Railpage on 1 Dec 2016 so I wouldn't hold my breath waiting for a reply.
  Iain Chief Commissioner

Location: Concord, NSW
Clearly the answer is Auscision with a combination of skillful marketing; interesting products and the ability to deliver (and not mention the products that seem to have gone missing).

Following them are second tier players such as Southern, SDS, Orient Express, On-Track who produce good models but less frequently.

Falling behind are Austrains (is John retired yet?), Powerline (are they going to deliver the promised S cars), Trainorama and Eureka (due to unforeseen circumstances the next train will be 5 years late).

Honorable mention should go to David Foulkes at SEM for continuing to produce excellent kits in the face of the Chinese invasion and the rise of the Shapeway producers such as Ray Pilgrim who produce detailed items to enhance (dare I say correct) some of the RTR models.

I am sure I have missed some like VR Casts and Ian Wilson but this is my view of the Race.

Cheers

Iain
  dthead Site Admin

Location: Melbourne, Australia
I believe Toby posts on soem facebook groups now, cannot remember which.

Regards,
David Head

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