In what can only be described as an ominous sign for Daniel Andrews the Greens and have the seat of Northcote (very dear to my heart) in the bi-election held yesterday.

I now believe Brunswick and Richmond will fall to the greens next year in the state election.

Even with Northcote now under green control and Jane Garratt out on sick leave there is effectively not a margin now.  With Garratt's seat Andrews has a one seat majority. The writing is again on the wall for governments who undertake political donations from developers and whom also ignore key inner  Melbourne seats.  

The ALP threw a lot of horsepower at this bi-election and have suffered a massive swing against them.

The complete disgrace the environmentally damaging chandler highway bridge is now becoming and almost nothing for public transport in years for the people of Northcote I believe weighted heavily.

With the Libs refusing to field a candidate, and a voter turnout of only 77%, I think it's a bit hard to draw a conclusion regarding the future prospects of the incumbent government based on the result of the by-election.

At the end of the day it remains a seat impossible to win for the Libs, especially if they don't try.

The ALP has lost Northcote for the first time in about 100 years.

The Lib's Director doesn't want to field candidates in Northcote, Brunswick, Melbourne or Richmond at the next election. His reasoning is that the Libs can't win, but their preferences are usually directed to Labor which gives the ALP the seat. No Lib preferences will be likely to keep Labor out and the Greens will get in, albeit having no chance of forming a government.
I think he has a valid point. I'll be interested to see if the ALP follows suit in some of the blue ribbon Lib seats. Somehow, I doubt it.

With the Libs refusing to field a candidate, and a voter turnout of only 77%, I think it's a bit hard to draw a conclusion regarding the future prospects of the incumbent government based on the result of the by-election.

At the end of the day it remains a seat impossible to win for the Libs, especially if they don't try.

ABC news is reporting that at the Liberal State conference on Saturday (before the Northcote result was known) it was proposed that the Libs not run candidates in ANY of the inner city contests where the Greens have a chance of beating the ALP.

This would mean that the ALP would be forced to put huge resources (personnel as well as $$$) into trying to hold off the Greens. Normally the Libs preferences help the ALP get over the line, without those preferences they are even more vulnerable.

The Libs seem to be trying to force the ALP to preference it in seats such as Higgins and Prahran where the ALP normally preferences the Greens.

The ALP are in big trouble if this comes to pass, they will have a huge fight to win back Melbourne and Northcote while simultaneously trying to hold off the Greens charge in Brunswick, Richmond etc.

BG

The Northcote by-election and the results of the gay marriage postal survey, especially in western Sydney make me wonder if the ALP isn't trying to cover too many demographics and therefore failing to serve any of them well.

The Labor Party has to ask itself is it trying to cater to:

• Cashed up inner city trendies in seats like Prahran, Melbourne and Northcote that have already fallen to the Green Party.
• The traditional Australian working class in less wealthy outer suburban seats who feel threatened by many "progressive" policies advocated by the upper-middle class. This demographic are the sort of people who were members of unions a few generations ago.
• New migrants with socially conservative views. (Seats with lots of Orthodox and Maronite Christians, Muslims and Chinese were almost the only ones to vote NO in the survey and the great majority of them were Labor seats.)

These three groups have strongly held views that often conflict with each other and I'm not sure the ALP can serve these three groups without bitter feuds and splits. In short, they can't be all things to all people.

Not that the Liberals are much better, they used to be the party of small business people (John Howards dad ran a servo), but they've always been polite to big business as they needed to get funds to balance the ALPs big donations from affiliated unions. And, with the advent of a "Religious Right" in Australia, their Conservative/Libertarian faction admit they've jumped into bed with a group they disagree with, while the "Moderate" Faction is all at sea as they don't know how to deal with a group trying to invade their party who are strongly opposed to most things the politically centrist Moderates believe in.

I suspect the mid sized parties are the only ones who really know who they are catering to. The Greens to a wealthier inner city demographic and the Nationals to the battler farmer and farm services demographic. By contrast the Liberals are a bit confused about things and Labor are completely bewildered. As tonight's Melbourne Channel 2 news said, "the curtain is closing on two party politics" and I reckon the ALPs naive approach of trying to appeal to everyone will only speed this up.

Please:- in Oz it's the Labor party; "U" ain't in it!

@Bogong  Look here for the answers on 'who is labor is attempting to cater too...'

https://www.politicalcompass.org/aus2016

yes its bloody ridiculous

The Northcote by-election and the results of the gay marriage postal survey, especially in western Sydney make me wonder if the ALP isn't trying to cover too many demographics and therefore failing to serve any of them well.

The Labour Party has to ask itself is it trying to cater to:

• Cashed up inner city trendies in seats like Prahran, Melbourne and Northcote that have already fallen to the Green Party.
• Battler Australian bogans in outer suburban seats who feel threatened by many 'progressive' policies. This demographic are the sort of people who were members of unions a few generations ago.
• New migrants with socially conservative views. (Seats with lots of Orthodox Christians, Muslims and Chinese were the only ones to vote NO in the survey and almost all of them were Labour seats.)

These three groups have strongly held views that often conflict with each other and I'm not sure the ALP can serve these three groups without bitter feuds and splits. In short, they can't be all things to all people.

Not that the Libs are much better, they used to be the party of small business people (John Howards dad ran a servo), but they've always sucked up to big business as they needed to get funds to balance the ALPs big donations from affiliated unions. And, with the advent of a "Religious Right" in Australia their "Moderate" Faction is all at sea as they don't know how to deal with a group trying to invade their party who are strongly opposed to most things the politically centrist Moderates believe in.

I suspect the mid sized parties are the only ones who really know who they are catering to. The Greens to a wealthier inner city demographic and the Nats to the battler farmer and farm services demographic. By contrast the Libs are a bit confused about things and Labour are completely bewildered. As the Channel 2 news said in Melbourne tonight, "the curtain is closing on two party politics" and I reckon the ALPs naive approach of trying to appeal to everyone will only speed this up.

Both Labor and LNP seem to be endlessly chasing the middle ground. I totally agree that there is a groundswell towards the ends of the political spectrum instead and it is not impossible to imagine in 20 years time that the major parties will indeed be One Nation and The Greens. I just hope that civil war is not the eventual result.

I just wonder who the average rusted-on right winger voted for in Northcote this weekend. Did they abstain, or vote Green just to give Labor a kick in the proverbial?

Dirty, the libertarian Liberal-Democrat Party ran a candidate in Northcote, so conservative leaning Liberal voters probably voted for him/her. I suspect "Moderate" Liberal Party supporters would be in trouble as they would be reluctant to endorse a far right candidate and the ALP candidate was (apparently) a member of the Socialist Left faction, so there wasn't any politically centrist person to vote for.

It appears the ALP "ran dead" in Melbourne electorate in the last federal election and didn't put any money or volunteers into that campaign. The result was that the Labor came third, Liberals second and the Greens won by a country mile. So in next years state election, perhaps Labor will run dead in all five Green-ish inner city seats (Prahran, Melb, Richmond, Brunswick and Northcote) and devote their money to campaigning against the Liberals. But Dick Wynne, the planning minister is the MLA for Richmond and I can't see them abandoning him.

Whatever happens, I'll be interested to see how the ALP refocuses itself, because if they don't, they're stuffed.

There are reports here and there that the Libs are short of funds, given donors are a bit peeved with the liberal/conservative bickering, and that donors don't like some of the 'extremist' views of the conservative side (their words not mine).

If they don't run in unwinnable seats, that also saves them funds for where they might have some challenge from, say, Australian Conservatives, who i think are going to bleed votes from the Libs here and there and might cause some upsets of their own.

It is really quite an interesting time to be watching Australian politics.  The disarray of and disappointment in the major parties will see a few small parties get a run.  Which will give us all something interesting to watch.

There are reports here and there that the Libs are short of funds, given donors are a bit peeved with the liberal/conservative bickering, and that donors don't like some of the 'extremist' views of the conservative side (their words not mine).

They the libs are short of money because millions of $ went missing under the stewardship of one Andrew Abercrombie who has since been dumped as treasurer.

http://www.theage.com.au/victoria/victorian-liberal-party-probes-missing-millions-20150819-gj3akk.html

Running dead, or simply not fielding a candidate in an ‘unwinnable’ seat, particularly in a by-election is not uncommon. On a good many occasions the Liberals in particular have simply not run in seats, or just fielded a token candidate because the they’re not in a position to win the seat.

The ALP, never being afraid to waste the money of others is a little bit different, the Bennelong by-election is an example, the seat has been held since the anomaly of 2007 with a simple majority at the first count of first preferences. Yet we see the ALP chucking resources and high exposure to it, and for what? To make a song and dance about a result that at best for them will see liberal returned at the third count, but likely returned at the first count.

Running dead, or simply not fielding a candidate in an ‘unwinnable’ seat, particularly in a by-election is not uncommon. On a good many occasions the Liberals in particular have simply not run in seats, or just fielded a token candidate because the they’re not in a position to win the seat.

The ALP, never being afraid to waste the money of others is a little bit different, the Bennelong by-election is an example, the seat has been held since the anomaly of 2007 with a simple majority at the first count of first preferences. Yet we see the ALP chucking resources and high exposure to it, and for what? To make a song and dance about a result that at best for them will see liberal returned at the third count, but likely returned at the first count.

Conservatives are running and will announce their candidate tomorrow.  It will be interesting to see what impact they have on the count too.

Though having said that given Federal elections use full preferential (as opposed to optional preferential where many votes exhaust after the first count as people only number 1 box), id say conservative votes would flow to liberals before labor anyway...

Northcote is a seething hotbed of over-educated Arts students who were brainwashed in Uni by Neo-Marxist lecturers.

The old working-class have either moved on elsewhere where housing is affordable, or died out.

No wonder the watermelons won.  Carry on.

Northcote is a seething hotbed of over-educated Arts students who were brainwashed in Uni by Neo-Marxist lecturers.

I don't know whether to laugh or cry when I read crap like this.  You're wasted here Carnot - you have a very bright future as a fiction writer.

Northcote is a seething hotbed of over-educated Arts students who were brainwashed in Uni by Neo-Marxist lecturers.

I don't know whether to laugh or cry when I read crap like this.  You're wasted here Carnot - you have a very bright future as a fiction writer.

I'm a Mechanical Engineering graduate from a previous decade.  Of course I'm going to have a dig at Arts graduates and fellow Communists....

Northcote is a seething hotbed of over-educated Arts students who were brainwashed in Uni by Neo-Marxist lecturers.

Brilliant summary although I would have gone with privileged upper-middle class over-educated.......

The sort of people who are happy to take an Uber, have their take away delivered by Foodora / Deliveroo, buy their morning after Barocca from the local 7eleven, all of which employ people on contracts at slave labour wages while they themselves live in million dollar houses, work in $150KPA jobs doing not much and go out most nights to a local bar, drink $13.00 craft beers and crap on about how much they care about whatever the cause dejour is.

BG

brainwashed in Uni by Neo-Marxist lecturers

Don't get me started...I'm not in the mood to rant today. @Bogong knows what I mean

Northcote is a seething hotbed of over-educated Arts students who were brainwashed in Uni by Neo-Marxist lecturers.

Brilliant summary although I would have gone with privileged upper-middle class over-educated.......

The sort of people who are happy to take an Uber, have their take away delivered by Foodora / Deliveroo, buy their morning after Barocca from the local 7eleven, all of which employ people on contracts at slave labour wages while they themselves live in million dollar houses, work in $150KPA jobs doing not much and go out most nights to a local bar, drink $13.00 craft beers and crap on about how much they care about whatever the cause dejour is.

BG

Better to live like that and have a conscience than be a knuckle dragging redneck who actually employs the people on contracts at slave labour wages, hates queers and people of colour, thinks Manus Island is a holiday camp and would gladly sell their own granny if there was a dollar in it

P.S. We could go on like this all day. Democracy's a smeg ain't it?

Ahh, it's so easy to offend the watermelons - so very thin-skinned.  No wonder they are first to oppose freedom of speech, conscience, and religion...

Northcote is a seething hotbed of over-educated Arts students who were brainwashed in Uni by Neo-Marxist lecturers.

The old working-class have either moved on elsewhere where housing is affordable, or died out.

No wonder the watermelons won.  Carry on.

The inner north is now the centre of Age Newspaper Readers and now appears to be a very very expensive suburb.

https://www.realestate.com.au/neighbourhoods/northcote-3070-vic

The old guard must have moved out and made way for wave of renting arts students?  No seems the population is highly educated yes but professional.

There was once a toilet roll in a toilet at Monash University which said Monash Arts Degree, please take one!

Northcote is a seething hotbed of over-educated Arts students who were brainwashed in Uni by Neo-Marxist lecturers.

The old working-class have either moved on elsewhere where housing is affordable, or died out.

No wonder the watermelons won.  Carry on.

The inner north is now the centre of Age Newspaper Readers and now appears to be a very very expensive suburb.

https://www.realestate.com.au/neighbourhoods/northcote-3070-vic

The old guard must have moved out and made way for wave of renting arts students?  No seems the population is highly educated yes but professional.

There was once a toilet roll in a toilet at Monash University which said Monash Arts Degree, please take one!

Those salaries at Fairfax and "Your ABC" are rather lucrative apparently...

I wonder how many of the Northcote knockers actually live in or near the place.  I do. You should spend some time on Ruckers Hill or at Northcote Plaza. Then, if you have any powers of observation at all, you can observe the wide variety of local residents.

I'm a Mechanical Engineering graduate from a previous decade.  Of course I'm going to have a dig at Arts graduates and fellow Communists....

Of course you are. I'm a graduate in Chemical Engineering and gave up childish jibes at other disciplines years ago.

Ahh, it's so easy to offend the watermelons - so very thin-skinned.

I don't think I'd be offended by anything you say. I usually feel quite sorry for self-righteous Bible-bashers.

think about though the trash on 7 and 9 and what of Rupert Murdoch and his cronies?
alas be vigilant about the mainstream media

I've discovered that watermelons are rather humorless too...