The last 747 passenger jets left the building ( a few months back)

 
  RTT_Rules Dr Beeching

Location: Dubai UAE
Just read that the remaining order book for the 747 is purely freight (about 12) and maybe one head of state.

The last 747-8i left for Korea a few months back.

https://thepointsguy.com/2017/08/the-last-passenger-747-delivered/

http://money.cnn.com/2017/07/19/news/companies/the-last-747-jumbo-jetliner/index.html

I believe the USA based airlines are or have grounded their last operating 747's leaving the US sky's 747 (passenger) free since 1970.

The Tri-jets (passenger from western market) finished about 18 years ago with MD-11, now we are seeing the end of the quad jets with likely the 747 now finished and A380 not far away.

The plane gunzel world is becoming a repetitive twin jet market.

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  petan Chief Commissioner

Location: Waiting to see a zebra using a zebra crossing!
Just read that the remaining order book for the 747 is purely freight (about 12) and maybe one head of state.

The last 747-8i left for Korea a few months back.

https://thepointsguy.com/2017/08/the-last-passenger-747-delivered/

http://money.cnn.com/2017/07/19/news/companies/the-last-747-jumbo-jetliner/index.html

I believe the USA based airlines are or have grounded their last operating 747's leaving the US sky's 747 (passenger) free since 1970.

The Tri-jets (passenger from western market) finished about 18 years ago with MD-11, now we are seeing the end of the quad jets with likely the 747 now finished and A380 not far away.

The plane gunzel world is becoming a repetitive twin jet market.
RTT_Rules
While not passenger, this might be of interest for those who like planes around Australia with more than two engines. The Yank parcel carriers such as Fedex seem to still use MD11 and 747 types across the Pacific into Australia and then northwards towards Asia. Cathay Pacific sends a modern 747 through Wellcamp Airport (Toowoomba QLD) on a regular freight schedule
  woodford Chief Commissioner

The Boeing 747-8 was produced up to just recently, given an airframe life of 25 years, we still be able to spot them for a good while still.

The A380 is still in production with something like 2/3rds of the 317 firm orders supplied, so these will be around for a while also.

The A380 is also a "niche" market aircraft, its primary purpose is on ultra busy routes, such as between London and New York, where there is no longer any more time slots availible for more aircraft, so if there is increasng passenger numbers, there must be more larger aircraft, so there is some chance we will see more of these.

A problem exists in designing a 2 engined aircraft of A380 size, the inner engine comes to within a metre or so of the ground any lower than that and it will be able to pick up rubbish on the ground into the engine at full throttle, this is NOT good news (this is a problem with higher power propeller aircraft, like the Piper Commanche), so any new engine cannot be much larger in Diameter.

woodford
  Carnot Chief Commissioner

The A380 might be about to no longer be on the market.  Its future largely dependent on a deal with Emirates:
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2018-01-15/airbus-plays-chicken-with-one-of-its-biggest-customers

There's nothing all that exciting about our skies being dominated by cookie-cutter twinjets (A320, A330, A350, B737, B777 etc).

At least Dassault still sell the trijet Falcon 7x and 8x executive jet.
  Valvegear Dr Beeching

Location: Norda Fittazroy
Purely on appearance, there is nothing as majestic as a 747 or A380 passing low overhead either on final approach or on the climb out.
  mikesyd Chief Commissioner

Location: Lurking
Emirates would maybe buy more if they could work out how to fit 11-12 seats across in the cattle pen.
  speedemon08 Mary

Location: I think by now you should have figured it out
Right now as it stands I think there are 3 carriers flying 747's into Melb (all cargo versions). Same with the A380, pretty sure it's only Emirates, QANTAS and QATAR.

Meanwhile there is 12 different carriers flying 787's into YMML, along with 3 A350's.
  M636C Minister for Railways

The 747-8 has been extremely successful as a freighter.

Airbus cancelled plans for an A380 freighter when Boeing indicated they were going ahead with the design.

The combined total of 747-8 passenger and freighter aircraft is about half the number of A380s completed to date, and over a shorter period since Boeing took a while to put it on the market.

The 747-8 has an entirely new wing structure, but I suspect that they may have made a profit on the design, which may not be the case with the A380, at least not yet.

I've seen a Cathay Pacific 747-8 flying into Sydney with its distinctive curved wing tips.

But the 777 versions in development now (and the A350 derivatives) are the way ahead for big airliners.

I flew in a BA 777 from London to DC twenty years ago now. I think its registration started G-VII(x), VII being Latin for 7.

Peter
  YM-Mundrabilla Minister for Railways

Location: Mundrabilla but I'd rather be in Narvik
Right now as it stands I think there are 3 carriers flying 747's into Melb (all cargo versions). Same with the A380, pretty sure it's only Emirates, QANTAS and QATAR.

Meanwhile there is 12 different carriers flying 787's into YMML, along with 3 A350's.
speedemon08
For those that don't speak airport. I think that YMML = Tullamarine like MEL which also = Tullamarine.
The break of gauge is alive and well.

FTM TLA and FTM FLA too.
  YM-Mundrabilla Minister for Railways

Location: Mundrabilla but I'd rather be in Narvik
Purely on appearance, there is nothing as majestic as a 747 or A380 passing low overhead either on final approach or on the climb out.
Valvegear
747 elegant/majestic yes. A380 about a elegant as Clive Palmer.
  speedemon08 Mary

Location: I think by now you should have figured it out
Right now as it stands I think there are 3 carriers flying 747's into Melb (all cargo versions). Same with the A380, pretty sure it's only Emirates, QANTAS and QATAR.

Meanwhile there is 12 different carriers flying 787's into YMML, along with 3 A350's.
For those that don't speak airport. I think that YMML = Tullamarine like MEL which also = Tullamarine.
The break of gauge is alive and well.

FTM TLA and FTM FLA too.
YM-Mundrabilla
Yeeeeeah, can you tell I'm morphing into a Planespotting Phase?

https://www.flickr.com/photos/speedemon08/27939068069

  woodford Chief Commissioner

A couple of points for the discusion...............

The future of large aircraft like the A380 lies in significant growth in patronage, if for some reason like a serious hike in fuel prices (very likely) they will almost certainly be doomed.

If we talking about and aircraft one can actually like (airliners are barges of the sky) lets try (one I have actually flown) an Airtourer 150, 26ft wing span, 2 seats, 150bhp engine,115 knots cruise  http://imgproc.airliners.net/photos/airliners/5/7/2/2294275.jpg?v=v40
Or its slightly bigger sister the CT4 (210bhp engine)
Lovely aircraft to fly, beautifully balanced controls, VERY responsive, a REAL pilots aircraft.
A Piper Comanche is also nice to fly, 6 seats 250bhp engine, 140knots cruise.

If one wishs to go in the realms of day dreaming lets try for a Hawker Tempest 1, they only ever made one of them and it could do 470mph. Another nice looking and performing machine. There's currently no flying Hawker Typhoon or Tempests, there is though at least one of each currently being rebuiilt to flying condition.

woodford
  RTT_Rules Dr Beeching

Location: Dubai UAE
The Boeing 747-8 was produced up to just recently, given an airframe life of 25 years, we still be able to spot them for a good while still.

The A380 is still in production with something like 2/3rds of the 317 firm orders supplied, so these will be around for a while also.

The A380 is also a "niche" market aircraft, its primary purpose is on ultra busy routes, such as between London and New York, where there is no longer any more time slots availible for more aircraft, so if there is increasng passenger numbers, there must be more larger aircraft, so there is some chance we will see more of these.

A problem exists in designing a 2 engined aircraft of A380 size, the inner engine comes to within a metre or so of the ground any lower than that and it will be able to pick up rubbish on the ground into the engine at full throttle, this is NOT good news (this is a problem with higher power propeller aircraft, like the Piper Commanche), so any new engine cannot be much larger in Diameter.

woodford
woodford
Roughly half of the outstanding 95 orders are expected to be cancelled, ie AMENDO, QANTAS etc

Airbus has slowed production to a crawl to match the order dates, but these all expire in 2019 and the yet to be cancelled orders leaves a few gaps in the even crawl speed assembly timetable. So expect planes to be made in a advance and wait, thus we should expect an annoucement by Airbus towards the end of this year.

Without the A380NEO going ahead, the A380 program is dead in the water. Emirates (the only reason the A380 got this far) is now looking at  retaining its fleet of A380's for longer as are other airlines they may have considered replacements, but they are just buying new old design planes for which the likes of 777-X s smothering in  operating cost.

The bulk of the A380PLUS upgrade can be mostly retrofitted on any model, so no need for a new one.

The second market for A380's looks worse than the new plane market with the early production planes off-lease parked up waiting for a customer. Scrapping of at least one plane for parts is expected by some. Note Emirates scrapped one of its former A340 planes because their resale price was scrap only, it was barely 10 years old when removed from service. They pulled it apart and then the parts sat there as there are scrapped A340's across the world looking for buyers of Airbus's other 4 engine failure. (Note: I love the A340 lines).

After the A340/A380, no one at Airbus will ever again be allowed to mutter the words, 4 engine plane! Thats twice they got it wrong and they should fire their forecasters and now their largest viable twin engine plane is too small to fully take on the 777.  

The 777 is currently as big as you can probably get with 2 engines, and it holds around 400 people. The A380 is around 500-550, which for me is not a big enough gap to justify the cost of 4 engines. The airlines led by Alan Joyce are saying for the economics, I'd rather buy 2 x 787/350's, at least I can use them on other legs and their per seat mile costs are the same. I think the A380 was simply made too small to survive on economics alone. It was designed with intention to stretch and this should have been pushed further.

As for the few crowded corridors. The likes of the A350/B787 were designed to open up 2ndry airports for long haul and drag away some of that market. Meanwhile the world has enough A380's and B747's to take us through to 2030's.

The public like the A380 for now, but thats only because the 777 is a 20 year old design and EK lead the charge in going 10 across (was originally 9 across and many still are) and no one yet has had the balls to  fit out the A380 with 11 across. Once this takes place, the A380 will sink from the hearts of many wanting a bit more bum room. This will surely happen if older A380's end up in discount airlines.
  speedemon08 Mary

Location: I think by now you should have figured it out
The A380 is still in production with something like 2/3rds of the 317 firm orders supplied, so these will be around for a while also.
Roughly half of the outstanding 95 orders are expected to be cancelled, ie AMENDO, QANTAS etc
RTT_Rules
I think early on they were predicting 800 odd worth of orders, and they wont get even half that.
  RTT_Rules Dr Beeching

Location: Dubai UAE
A couple of points for the discusion...............

The future of large aircraft like the A380 lies in significant growth in patronage, if for some reason like a serious hike in fuel prices (very likely) they will almost certainly be doomed.

woodford
Significant oil price growth is very unlikely and fuel consumption per passenger mile continues to decline about 10%/decade which is why the A380 program without NEO is doomed .

We are on the early stages of a large scale transition for cars to go from internal combustion to hybrid/EV over next 25 years. The Oil sector is expecting a significant decline in demand and many developed countries with stagnate populations are already in decline.
  RTT_Rules Dr Beeching

Location: Dubai UAE
The A380 is still in production with something like 2/3rds of the 317 firm orders supplied, so these will be around for a while also.
Roughly half of the outstanding 95 orders are expected to be cancelled, ie AMENDO, QANTAS etc
I think early on they were predicting 800 odd worth of orders, and they wont get even half that.
speedemon08
Actually I think it was around 1200-1500 planes over 25 years, roughly the same number of B747's over 40 years.

From wiki
Size
In its 2000 Global Market Forecast, Airbus estimated the demand for 1,235 passenger Very Large Aircraft (VLA), with more than 400 seats : 360 up to 2009 and 875 by 2019.[295] The market is estimated for two decades at more than 1,700 by Airbus and 700 by Boeing since 1999-2000, including freighters.[296] In 2006, industry analysts Philip Lawrence of the Aerospace Research Centre in Bristol anticipated 880 sales by 2025 with Airbus having conducted the most extensive and thorough market analysis of commercial aviation ever undertaken, justifying its VLA plans to design the A380 by the spoke-hub distribution paradigm while Richard Aboulafia of the consulting Teal Group in Fairfax, Virginia anticipated 400 with the rise of mid-size aircraft and market fragmentation reducing them to niche markets, making such plans unjustified in a point-to-point transit model.[26]

In 2007, Airbus estimated a demand for 1,283 VLA in the following 20 years if airport congestion remains constant, up to 1,771 VLAs if congestion increases, with most deliveries (56%) in Asia-Pacific, and 415 very large, 120-tonne plus freighters.[297] For the same period, Boeing was estimating the demand for 590 large (B747 or A380) passenger airliners and 630 freighters


Early concepts for the plane includes
Although early marketing of the huge cross-section touted the possibility of duty-free shops, restaurant-like dining, gyms, casinos and beauty parlours on board, the realities of airline economics have kept such dreams grounded.


As soon as you hear sales pitch including putting non revenue raising facilities and anything else that involves people walking around on a plane, run a mile. Even back in 1990, they knew people had to remain seated and any empty space was revenue wasted.


However, in the early 2000's when the Go/No Go decision was being made for the A380 at Airbus, Boeing was delivering less than 20 x 747's a year. The longterm trend was down not up. Every option Boeing put on the table to the customers was rejected. This includes a full upper deck. Boeing only went for the 747-8i because they basically had the plane base design and I think emotional attachment to the 747 and the upgrade didn't cost that much and there was some demand, mostly for the freighter. Chickenfeed compared to what Airbus was about to throw at the A380.   i suspect if Boeing had to design greenfield, they would not have proceeded. As it was their focus was on 787 and future 777-X, they probably could not have tackled a whole new Greenfield project or major upgrade to 747 like double deck. (my guess).

I did a Boeing tour in 2003 and the focus was only 747. We didn't go to 767 or 777. They said the 747 is the pride of Boeing, although  demand had dropped to 6/month from 6/week in the hey day.

Overall you really have to wonder what Airbus was thinking. Was their main competitor really just going to very publicly going to hand the VLA market over to them on a plate after 40 years? Was Boeing really simply not interested in retaining the world's most popular and well known aircraft for them? Was noone in France even looking at what Boeing was doing and questioning their choice?

What made it worse is they then stuffed around with the A350, initially a poor mans upgrade of a A330 (I think) until told by the airlines to pull their head in and then when they actually do it right the A350's salesman's biggest challenge is for the customer not to go to the next office and buy the cheaper A330NEO because the A350 is not big enough and now engine limitations is holding back further stretches. Airbus have done a great job with the A320 family and A330, but it would appear they cannot manage the bigger plane  markets well. Without the A380, they have now handed Boeing the large plane market on a plate. No CEO in Airbus will be willing to start project to take on the 777 for many years to come unless they are willing to kill off the A350, which they won't.

Airbus also has major logistical challenges in just knocking the A380 together which I'm sure adds cost. Look at some of the photos moving wing and fuselage components on roads through historic towns with small streets because parts are made all over the EU, none of this is good for costs.
  RTT_Rules Dr Beeching

Location: Dubai UAE
Emirates would maybe buy more if they could work out how to fit 11-12 seats across in the cattle pen.
mikesyd
Look at the press release drawings by Airbus from early project days after the program was approved to start assembly. It shows 11 across.

There is room for 11 across. Install the 777 seats, take some of aisle and done.

http://www.dailymail.co.uk/travel/travel_news/article-3619647/Airbus-plans-install-seats-A380.html
  M636C Minister for Railways

Purely on appearance, there is nothing as majestic as a 747 or A380 passing low overhead either on final approach or on the climb out.
747 elegant/majestic yes. A380 about as elegant as Clive Palmer.
YM-Mundrabilla
When the A380 first appeared, a set of small scale plan view drawings appeared showing the 747, A 380 and the Hughes Hercules ("spruce goose") Flying boat.

Arranged in that order, the changes in wing sweepback from the 747 to the straight wing of the Hercules put the wing of the A380 at about half way between.

The A380 wing, designed by BAE in the UK, is a masterpiece of computational fluid mechanics with the varying twist in the cross section.

But the 747 wing, designed with slide rules and data from German WWII experiments is much more elegant and relatively simple.

It is said that the 747 was the last airliner designed without the use of computers, by people who understood all of the requirements.

Peter
  RTT_Rules Dr Beeching

Location: Dubai UAE
Purely on appearance, there is nothing as majestic as a 747 or A380 passing low overhead either on final approach or on the climb out.
747 elegant/majestic yes. A380 about as elegant as Clive Palmer.
When the A380 first appeared, a set of small scale plan view drawings appeared showing the 747, A 380 and the Hughes Hercules ("spruce goose") Flying boat.

Arranged in that order, the changes in wing sweepback from the 747 to the straight wing of the Hercules put the wing of the A380 at about half way between.

The A380 wing, designed by BAE in the UK, is a masterpiece of computational fluid mechanics with the varying twist in the cross section.

But the 747 wing, designed with slide rules and data from German WWII experiments is much more elegant and relatively simple.

It is said that the 747 was the last airliner designed without the use of computers, by people who understood all of the requirements.

Peter
M636C
727 was done with computers?

777 I think was first fully done on Autocad?

A380 wing was extra complex because they wanted a desired amount of lift but constrained by length, if they had used normal techniques it would have bee outside the max length for airports. For the 777-X, Boeing went back to its Military roots and built it like an Aircraft carrier fighter with raising wingtips.
  Carnot Chief Commissioner

The A380 seems to take less runway than the 747-400 to take-off in due to its wing design.

I'll never forget watching from the Intl Terminal outside Observation Deck a United Airlines 747-400 at MTOW taking off from Sydney Airport to the North on a hot day a few years back.  Not a whole lot of runway left as it lifted off the deck with all 4 P&W-4000 engines screaming away....
  petan Chief Commissioner

Location: Waiting to see a zebra using a zebra crossing!
This may get you the airborne Boeing 747-400 world wide

https://flightaware.com/live/aircrafttype/B744
  speedemon08 Mary

Location: I think by now you should have figured it out
The A380 seems to take less runway than the 747-400 to take-off in due to its wing design.

I'll never forget watching from the Intl Terminal outside Observation Deck a United Airlines 747-400 at MTOW taking off from Sydney Airport to the North on a hot day a few years back.  Not a whole lot of runway left as it lifted off the deck with all 4 P&W-4000 engines screaming away....
Carnot
Should see how low and loud a QANTAS A380 is over Melbourne headed to LA compared to a 787......
  Dangersdan707 Chief Commissioner

Location: On a Thing with Internet
English Please, Train-spotting NOT plane spotting
  kitchgp Chief Commissioner

There are no US airlines operating A380s.
  RTT_Rules Dr Beeching

Location: Dubai UAE
The A380 seems to take less runway than the 747-400 to take-off in due to its wing design.

I'll never forget watching from the Intl Terminal outside Observation Deck a United Airlines 747-400 at MTOW taking off from Sydney Airport to the North on a hot day a few years back.  Not a whole lot of runway left as it lifted off the deck with all 4 P&W-4000 engines screaming away....
Carnot
Back in the day when I was training as a ATC (Air Traffic Controller), I was told the older 747's (pre 400's)  at TULLA east bound to Hawaii (I think), would only leave in summer in the early morning at full MOTOW and using a rolling start from the very end of the runway almost on the grass to try and get off before the Piano keys at the other end.

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