2019 Federal Election Thread

 
  djf01 Chief Commissioner

It seems that ScoMo has "done a Keating" and won the unwinnable election.
Valvegear

And didn't that work out well!

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  Valvegear Dr Beeching

Location: Norda Fittazroy
Pollsters might have to re-write their methodology....
"Carnot"
According to Antony Greene, they have been forced to change and that's the problem. They use to take random samples from the electoral rolls, and ring the people up on their landlines. Green reckoned that they used to be pretty reliable. Now that landlines are virtually a thing of the past, they can't do this and, for some reason, their whole system has now failed in a big way.
  DirtyBallast Chief Commissioner

Location: I was here first. You're only visiting.
I think it's all over.

While I can now look forward to continuing to benefit from my wife receiving a tax refund of $2k paid into our joint account despite that fact that she doesn't work and I earn enough to pay over $50k tax per year (you do the math...), and I can also now look forward to future tax cuts that I don't need because I'm only going to hoard the money, I'm not thrilled with the result.

With this result it now looks by comparison I am a fare evader, while those that can't afford the fare, will have to walk instead of receiving a concession that I was willing to pay for.
  don_dunstan Minister for Railways

Location: Adelaide proud
I think it's all over.

While I can now look forward to continuing to benefit from my wife receiving a tax refund of $2k paid into our joint account despite that fact that she doesn't work and I earn enough to pay over $50k tax per year (you do the math...), and I can also now look forward to future tax cuts that I don't need because I'm only going to hoard the money, I'm not thrilled with the result.

With this result it now looks by comparison I am a fare evader, while those that can't afford the fare, will have to walk instead of receiving a concession that I was willing to pay for.
DirtyBallast
Fare evasion in Melbourne is impossible to police. I had a work friend who never, ever paid her fares and eventually she got caught three times in a row... went to Magistrate's court and said her Myki didn't work and had her case dismissed. The system is UNENFORCEABLE.

Why bother buying Mykis if they don't enforce it?

Labor didn't deserve office, full-stop.
  Carnot Chief Commissioner

Remember how just a week ago 17% of voters said they were undecided.  I think we now know how the majority of those people voted.

We're seeing a big political shift where the ALP can no longer be assured of getting votes from blue-collar workers, especially in rural and regional Australia.
  ANR Assistant Commissioner

I think John Howard called it by saying that Bill decided to play the top end of town and the class thing. You have to be a govt for everyone. It is why Hawke and Howard Govts had the longevity.

Also, Bill decided to get off the workers bus,  and join the environmental bus. You can't be all things to all people.

Over to Albo Now...
  RTT_Rules Dr Beeching

Location: Dubai UAE
NINE Newspoll

Is it important to you that the PM serves out the whole term?

85% -> Yes

People are fed up with this crap!
  RTT_Rules Dr Beeching

Location: Dubai UAE
It seems that ScoMo has "done a Keating" and won the unwinnable election.

And didn't that work out well!
djf01
Well, it got him another 3 years.
  RTT_Rules Dr Beeching

Location: Dubai UAE

We're seeing a big political shift where the ALP can no longer be assured of getting votes from blue-collar workers, especially in rural and regional Australia.
Carnot
Not if you stab them in the back....
  davesvline Chief Commissioner

Location: 1983-1998
Hahahaha. D1ckheads!!! Played the "Big end of town BS ( no pun)!!" . Well, these flogs seemingly forgot that some of the "big end of town " happens to Joe include a lot of construction industry types who've made a shed load on union sites building apartments to house Chinese fresh of the plane into the immediate 1km radius of RMIT IN Melbourne.

This is the concept of jobs growth???? Blind Freddie can see whose making shed loads, and the predominantly vote ALP ( so the union tells them). Trust me when I tell you Bill's proposed changes to negative gearing fell on deaf ears with the union members, cos they're already on that lurk, and weren't going to be affected cos of the grandfather clause.

Long and short of it, your not really going to shift votes where the proposed changes don't affect those voting one way or the other..

Take my local member on Deakin. Like it or lump it, Michael Sukkar has been balls to the wall with East West Link. Guess what, that things going to get built now ( if they follow through on the promise) at no cost to Dan Andrews.

The only reason Mr sukkar lost half his majority is (IMHO) cos of residue from the recent state election. His challenger was a nobody from nowhere, proving a drivers dog could poll for the ALP in Deakin. However, unlike the oxygen thief he replaced in 2013, it's always hard to see a sitting member replaced who's actually done a shed load for his electorate.

Mr Sukkar happens to be such, despite my party politics not always agreeing with his.

Possibly, many others across the country may have judged their local member on more than simply party lines, but rather, on the results of the efforts from their time in office?????

Did we hear too much BS from BS?? Dunno??

Regards
  The Vinelander Minister for Railways

Location: Ballan, Victoria on the Ballarat RFR Line
Bill Shorten concedes defeat and congratulates PM Morrison at 23:35.
  RTT_Rules Dr Beeching

Location: Dubai UAE
Bill Shorten concedes defeat and congratulates PM Morrison at 23:35.
The Vinelander
Must be one of the latest concession speeches.
  The Vinelander Minister for Railways

Location: Ballan, Victoria on the Ballarat RFR Line
Bill Shorten concedes defeat and congratulates PM Morrison at 23:35.
Must be one of the latest concession speeches.
RTT_Rules

...and one of the latest victory speeches at 00:10 and counting.
  Donald Chief Commissioner

Location: Donald. Duck country.
Pollsters might have to re-write their methodology....
According to Antony Greene, they have been forced to change and that's the problem. They use to take random samples from the electoral rolls, and ring the people up on their landlines. Green reckoned that they used to be pretty reliable. Now that landlines are virtually a thing of the past, they can't do this and, for some reason, their whole system has now failed in a big way.
Valvegear
It might be more about those that get involved in the surveys.   Any survey or robo-call or electricity sales person that rings my phone gets an immediate hang-up.
  bevans Site Admin

Location: Melbourne, Australia
Quite an extraordinary night really.  The message I get from last night is you can have a completely unstable government for most of their term with very little forward movement on climate issues, energy and cost of living and you will be voted back in for more of the same.  I am stunned at how the people of Australia think.

I am truly perplexed at how individualistic Australia has become really.  As a result of this election the cleavage between the have's and have not's will widen in this country and australia is still yet to enter the 21st century.

(This is not a post about either side of politics)
  SinickleBird Chief Train Controller

Location: Qantas Club at Mudgee International Airport
“With this result it now looks by comparison I am a fare evader, while those that can't afford the fare, will have to walk instead of receiving a concession that I was willing to pay for.“
@DirtyBallast - you can still pay for someone else’s fare if that is your desire - it’s called charity, and many of us do it.

Differences are:

You, and a bunch of others, won’t be compelled to do it;

You can choose who you support; and

You won’t need to also pay for an ever-growing army of public servants developing and managing policies and procedures that govern how they will hand over your money and to whom.
  Carnot Chief Commissioner

I know life-long rusted on ALP voters and unionists who for the first time voted for the Coalition.  Many people are fed up with being told what to think and say, and didn't want Cultural Marxism to intrude on their families, schools, churches etc.

This may have only swung a small percentage of voters, but enough in some areas to deny the ALP victory.

This pretty much sums up the dilemma for the ALP:


And with regards to the polls:
  Carnot Chief Commissioner

Incidentally, who else is expecting a horror (delayed) budget by the Vic State Government now that Shorten lost?
  7334 Chief Commissioner

Location: In the workshop wondering why I started 7334 in the first place
Barrie Cassidy has overruled Green saying that nobody knows how prepoll will pan out. It could help ALP forming minority govt if they win seats that have Lib swings on election day thanks to prepoll.
ANR
I would back Green over Cassidy any day.  

Cassidy was the one who in the early stages of the US Presidential elections reckoned Trump "can't win from here" so his judgement might just be questionable and I rather think his comments might just be wishfull thinking rather that a reasoned comment.

That said the final result will be some time coming.
  RTT_Rules Dr Beeching

Location: Dubai UAE
Incidentally, who else is expecting a horror (delayed) budget by the Vic State Government now that Shorten lost?
Carnot
Why, NSW is able to fund itself, why not the SRV?
  RTT_Rules Dr Beeching

Location: Dubai UAE
Interesting tatic used by the LNP that only came out last night.

3 x a night, most nights of the week, SCOMO's team sent an automated message,

to 5000 people, each session in one area

Press 1 to listen in to a phone Town HAll meeting with the PM
Press 2 if you would like to ask the PM a question

or something like that.

They did this for weeks and the media never found out?
  potatoinmymouth Chief Commissioner

Incidentally, who else is expecting a horror (delayed) budget by the Vic State Government now that Shorten lost?
Why, NSW is able to fund itself, why not the SRV?
RTT_Rules
What's with this persistent idea that NSW is somehow "self-funded" compared to Victoria?

By my count of the numbers 51% of NSW actual 2017-18 revenue was from the Commonwealth compared with 58% for Victoria. Unsurprising when you consider that NSW has a higher tax rate per GSP (when mining royalties are included - and there's no sensible argument to exclude them) and per capita.

Moreover, NSW's Commonwealth grant funding is expected to grow 2.5% pa over the forward estimates thanks presumably to having a hotline to Canberra, compared to Victoria which expects a measly 1.1% pa.
  The Vinelander Minister for Railways

Location: Ballan, Victoria on the Ballarat RFR Line
Incidentally, who else is expecting a horror (delayed) budget by the Vic State Government now that Shorten lost?
Carnot

I believe the Victorian budget will be tabled next Wednesday. It was literally held in abeyance to give Shorten clear air to campaign in Victoria.

Mike.
  9034 Train Controller

Stunning  achievement for Scott Morrison and his team.

Helped along by Chris Bowen.

"Shadow treasurer Chris Bowen said retirees unhappy with Labor's plan to scrap cash payments for excess franking credits were free to take their vote elsewhere because the Opposition would not be backing down."

Looks like some people took his advice!
  petan Chief Commissioner

Location: Waiting to see a zebra using a zebra crossing!
In my areas; LNP southern Gold Coast 4.8% down and ON up a bit. The LNP to the immediate north of that (Moncrieff) has new openly lesbian MHR, so ultra conservatives accepted her. Tweed Labour retained with slight increase. Lots of retired people here.

(EDIT) Moncrieff was previously held by very conservative LNP Steven Ciobo and lots of white shoe bridgade types there

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