The suburbs set for population explosions over the next 20 years

 
Topic moved from News by bevans on 07 Oct 2019 13:41
  bevans Site Admin

Location: Melbourne, Australia
I have been waiting for these stats for a while.  if you take a look at those suburbs where lots of growth is predicted, the transport systems leave a lot to be desired.



Flemington Racecourse has been asking for trains during the week.  N o Metro Action yet.  This will need review.

Rockbank will the current works allow for enough trains or should we have track quadding to this station now ready for the population expansion?

Michleham no real plans for any decent transport works.  Spur line from the Epping line to the area?

Wollert A line has been called for by the council for 5 years.  No action by the government.  See above Spur line connecting with the Wallan line.

http://www.aurora.asn.au/2018/05/council-case-for-wollert-rail/

Cranbourne South Needed now.

Whittlesea - should have been done with the mernda works.  Ignored by ALP.

Cranbourne East.  Needed now.  Extend line to Clyde South or Beyond.  Needed now.

Werribee should be done with link to the WYNVALE

Wallan - Start building out now. Line up with Airport link connection.

Hillside - More trains and a spur line from Calder Park line to Melton?

Tarneit - already a problem going to get worse.

Delacombe needs to be sorting out a line now. Relay the line to Redan and connect over the roads and into the area and head south or use the existing alignment?

The suburbs set for population explosions over the next 20 years

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  mejhammers1 Chief Commissioner

I have been waiting for these stats for a while.  if you take a look at those suburbs where lots of growth is predicted, the transport systems leave a lot to be desired.



Flemington Racecourse has been asking for trains during the week.  N o Metro Action yet.  This will need review.

Rockbank will the current works allow for enough trains or should we have track quadding to this station now ready for the population expansion?

Michleham no real plans for any decent transport works.  Spur line from the Epping line to the area?

Wollert A line has been called for by the council for 5 years.  No action by the government.  See above Spur line connecting with the Wallan line.

http://www.aurora.asn.au/2018/05/council-case-for-wollert-rail/

Cranbourne South Needed now.

Whittlesea - should have been done with the mernda works.  Ignored by ALP.

Cranbourne East.  Needed now.  Extend line to Clyde South or Beyond.  Needed now.

Werribee should be done with link to the WYNVALE

Wallan - Start building out now. Line up with Airport link connection.

Hillside - More trains and a spur line from Calder Park line to Melton?

Tarneit - already a problem going to get worse.

Delacombe needs to be sorting out a line now. Relay the line to Redan and connect over the roads and into the area and head south or use the existing alignment?

The suburbs set for population explosions over the next 20 years
bevans
Why Flemington Racecourse needs a review? Cross that one off. Take paths off the Craigieburn line, the most overcrowded on the network for just over 3,000 people? Improve the 57 tram and improve on the local Bus Network. Flemington is only 8 kms from the City.

Michael
  Heihachi_73 Chief Commissioner

Location: Terminating at Ringwood
It should be the other way around, improve the local buses first, then fix the trams. At least the 57 runs after dark and doesn't take Sundays off.
  bevans Site Admin

Location: Melbourne, Australia
How will mickelham be addressed?  It would seem the housing growth is going west of Craigieburn where rail does not exist?

Also have the issue of Doreen which needs to proceed.
  Carnot Chief Commissioner

Metrotrains doesn't like spur lines.  So you can cross Flemington, Mickleham, Wollert, and Hillside off your list.

Serious work needs to happen asap on increasing capacity on Craigieburn - Wallan section of NE BG line.  i.e. Upfield - Somerton link.
  trainbrain Chief Commissioner

Coldstream..................all the land between the old station and the Maroondah Highway is earmarked for housing, as well as a big subdivison behind the current shopping centre. The rail trail maybe hopefully short lived.
  kitchgp Chief Commissioner

IF, in 2036, ALL the 3000 Flemington Racecourse residents used a 6-train per hour service over the 2-hour AM peak, the average load would be 250 passengers. Off-peak trains would be empty. It takes more than one station to justify a rail service.
  freightgate Minister for Railways

Location: Albury, New South Wales
Ballarat is one to watch with two suburbs being on the list and in the southern suburbs of Ballarat.

Is it time to look at resting some of the Skipton line ?

This growth will place further issues with the single track to Melbourne. What about the Geelong line ?
  CraigieburnLineUser Station Master

Bevan's original post
Why Flemington Racecourse needs a review? Cross that one off. Take paths off the Craigieburn line, the most overcrowded on the network for just over 3,000 people? Improve the 57 tram and improve on the local Bus Network. Flemington is only 8 kms from the City.

Michael
mejhammers1
There was an idea in 2009 to extend the racecourse line to Highpoint or East Keilor to improve transport out that way and because the Racecourse Line is currently wasted. I've attached the link below. Yes now is not the time to be taking paths off the Craigieburn line, but Post Metro 1 and possibly post City Loop Reconfiguration (if it happens soon after Metro 1) this should happen. After the reconfig and Craigieburn is running through to Frankston (as has been proposed) there will be ample paths for another line to go in: sure we are a very crowded line atm, but even with a few more years of growth we won't need 24 tph (and that is before HCS). Extending the line to East Keilor would also have the benefit of taking people off the Craigieburn Line



https://www.theage.com.au/national/call-for-littleused-line-to-service-new-homes-20090517-b7da.html
  bevans Site Admin

Location: Melbourne, Australia
There was an idea in 2009 to extend the racecourse line to Highpoint or East Keilor to improve transport out that way and because the Racecourse Line is currently wasted. I've attached the link below. Yes now is not the time to be taking paths off the Craigieburn line, but Post Metro 1 and possibly post City Loop Reconfiguration (if it happens soon after Metro 1) this should happen. After the reconfig and Craigieburn is running through to Frankston (as has been proposed) there will be ample paths for another line to go in: sure we are a very crowded line atm, but even with a few more years of growth we won't need 24 tph (and that is before HCS). Extending the line to East Keilor would also have the benefit of taking people off the Craigieburn Line

https://www.theage.com.au/national/call-for-littleused-line-to-service-new-homes-20090517-b7da.html
CraigieburnLineUser

I got the feeling this was the preferred position of the deferal government a line from Flemington to Highpoint to Keilor East and thence to the airport a shorter? service to the airport?
  CraigieburnLineUser Station Master

There was an idea in 2009 to extend the racecourse line to Highpoint or East Keilor to improve transport out that way and because the Racecourse Line is currently wasted. I've attached the link below. Yes now is not the time to be taking paths off the Craigieburn line, but Post Metro 1 and possibly post City Loop Reconfiguration (if it happens soon after Metro 1) this should happen. After the reconfig and Craigieburn is running through to Frankston (as has been proposed) there will be ample paths for another line to go in: sure we are a very crowded line atm, but even with a few more years of growth we won't need 24 tph (and that is before HCS). Extending the line to East Keilor would also have the benefit of taking people off the Craigieburn Line

https://www.theage.com.au/national/call-for-littleused-line-to-service-new-homes-20090517-b7da.html

I got the feeling this was the preferred position of the federal government a line from Flemington to Highpoint to Keilor East and thence to the airport a shorter? service to the airport?
bevans
Yeah it was their preferred route. It's a shame it didn't get more of a look in as it has the possibility to service quite a number of people
  mejhammers1 Chief Commissioner

CraigieburnLineUser. The Sunshine routw was taken because it is much cheaper to implement. $8 - $13 billion for the Sunshine route as opposed to $15 - $20 billion for the Flemington Route.

Michael
  True Believers Chief Commissioner

Only a spur line that makes sense is Wollert since the land is reserved. But would require Metro 2 tunnel to proceed.

Hillside can just get a station at Calder Park on the Sunbury line.

Extending the Flemington line to the Airport, at the moment is not a priority since the Sunshine route has a better economical return in value than the tunnel direct option.

Extending the Upfield line and getting that to Wallan needs to be on the radar soon.


Bevans, the ALP didn't need to put the rail line to Whittlesea right away, even so, there is provision for it. But at the moment Whittlesea is just a town. The growth is more towards Epping North and Wollert.

The western lines to Tarneit and Caroline Springs, need to electrify asap, there is a plan in the works, but the sooner the better.

Yeah, the Clyde extension is overdue, but the Cranbourne line needs the upgrades first. There were plans to extend the Cranbourne line to Cranbourne East in 2008 but were ditched later on.
  Carnot Chief Commissioner

The western lines to Tarneit and Caroline Springs, need to electrify asap, there is a plan in the works, but the sooner the better.
True Believers
Talking of Tarneit -  https://www.abc.net.au/news/2019-10-09/tarneit-suburb-on-melbourne-fringe-feeling-growing-pains/11537562

So why aren't enough buses connecting with existing train stations before new ones are built?  Sure, the V/line trains are chockers too.  That's a fundamental failure of transport planning as well.
  bevans Site Admin

Location: Melbourne, Australia

The western lines to Tarneit and Caroline Springs, need to electrify asap, there is a plan in the works, but the sooner the better.

Yeah, the Clyde extension is overdue, but the Cranbourne line needs the upgrades first. There were plans to extend the Cranbourne line to Cranbourne East in 2008 but were ditched later on.
True Believers

Electrification planning is already underway to Geelong area but do date yet fore the works.  The Article also highlights the amount of growth in the western suburbs and outer west including Ballarat.  Consideration now required to run electrification all the way to Ballarat area.

Surprised only 1 area in Geelong was on the list.
  John.Z Chief Train Controller

Melbourne Airport - Airport West - Keilor East - Marribyrnong - Showgrounds - Newmarket (4 Platforms) - Metro Tunnel 3 - Burnley (6 platforms) - Glen Waverley

Metro Tunnel 3: Newmarket - South Kensington - EGate (Is this still a thing?) - Docklands/Spencer St - Parliament - Jolimont - Burnley

At the same time, Burnley - Box Hill would be quadruplicated to allow for Box Hill + Alamein to run local into City with permanent express Box Hill out to Lilydale/Belgrave
  kitchgp Chief Commissioner

Talking of Tarneit -  
https://www.abc.net.au/news/2019-10-09/tarneit-suburb-on-melbourne-fringe-feeling-growing-pains/11537562

………………………………………………………………………
Carnot

It would be of interest to see a follow-up article on exactly who did the promising. It’s a bit hard to tell from the graphic but, of note, it seems the projected expansion to the east is towards Warburton, not Healesville. The demographic centre of Melbourne is still currently in the Glen Iris area, although it is shifting west.
  ngarner Chief Train Controller

Location: Seville
Coldstream..................all the land between the old station and the Maroondah Highway is earmarked for housing, as well as a big subdivison behind the current shopping centre. The rail trail maybe hopefully short lived.
trainbrain
To my understanding Yarra Ranges Council are opposed to any major expansions of any of the townships beyond Lilydale. Seville is only getting a few, small, in-fill projects. Wandin North, Woori Yallock, Launching Place & Yarra Jcn likewise. Coldstream is in the same boat as are Yarra Glen and Healesille. IMHO even though there are huge swathes of open land, there isn't going to be any major growth in this area due to the green wedge policies in place at both state and local levels. Mind you, I'm 50km from the CBD by road and out west there is a lot of poor agriculture land, substantially closer to the CBD, so why build way out east when the west still has lots more land available closer in?
Pity the infrastructure is so poor on that side of town but there is hope with Regional Rail, MARL, SRL and Western Rail Plans all being considered

Neil
  trainbrain Chief Commissioner

Coldstream..................all the land between the old station and the Maroondah Highway is earmarked for housing, as well as a big subdivison behind the current shopping centre. The rail trail maybe hopefully short lived.
To my understanding Yarra Ranges Council are opposed to any major expansions of any of the townships beyond Lilydale. Seville is only getting a few, small, in-fill projects. Wandin North, Woori Yallock, Launching Place & Yarra Jcn likewise. Coldstream is in the same boat as are Yarra Glen and Healesille. IMHO even though there are huge swathes of open land, there isn't going to be any major growth in this area due to the green wedge policies in place at both state and local levels. Mind you, I'm 50km from the CBD by road and out west there is a lot of poor agriculture land, substantially closer to the CBD, so why build way out east when the west still has lots more land available closer in?
Pity the infrastructure is so poor on that side of town but there is hope with Regional Rail, MARL, SRL and Western Rail Plans all being considered

Neil
ngarner
You may want to rethink for the land is up for sale, from the Quarry entrance to Station St in Coldsteam, lock stock and barrel.
  trainbrain Chief Commissioner

Coldstream..................all the land between the old station and the Maroondah Highway is earmarked for housing, as well as a big subdivison behind the current shopping centre. The rail trail maybe hopefully short lived.
To my understanding Yarra Ranges Council are opposed to any major expansions of any of the townships beyond Lilydale. Seville is only getting a few, small, in-fill projects. Wandin North, Woori Yallock, Launching Place & Yarra Jcn likewise. Coldstream is in the same boat as are Yarra Glen and Healesille. IMHO even though there are huge swathes of open land, there isn't going to be any major growth in this area due to the green wedge policies in place at both state and local levels. Mind you, I'm 50km from the CBD by road and out west there is a lot of poor agriculture land, substantially closer to the CBD, so why build way out east when the west still has lots more land available closer in?
Pity the infrastructure is so poor on that side of town but there is hope with Regional Rail, MARL, SRL and Western Rail Plans all being considered

Neil
You may want to rethink for the land is up for sale, from the Quarry entrance to Station St in Coldsteam, lock stock and barrel.
  Rossco T Chief Train Controller

Location: Camberwell, Victoria
You may want to rethink for the land is up for sale, from the Quarry entrance to Station St in Coldsteam, lock stock and barrel.
trainbrain
That land may be up for sale but it is still zoned as 'Green Wedge', so there would be still be a great deal of process to go through before that land could be turned into housing.  Not that I'm saying it would be a bad idea (i.e. new housing estate next to a future train station), but I don't see it happening anytime soon...

Ross
  Gman_86 Chief Commissioner

Location: Melton, where the sparks dare not roam!
Rockbank & Mt. Cottrell.

My parents moved to Melton in 1981, back then, they were told the railway line was due to be electrified in the next few years. They're still waiting.

We still have no commitment from the state government that it will be done in time for Metro 1's opening, I wouldn't at all be surprised to see this get knocked back in favour for something else.

Meanwhile the Western Freeway is still the same 4 lanes it was in 1987.

For a real indictment on planning in Victoria, just take a look at the new suburb of Thornhill Park within the Rockbank & Mt.Cottrell area. This new suburb is bordered by Paynes Rd to the East, Mt. Cottrell Rd to the West, Western Freeway to the North and the railway line to the South. It has no bus service. It has no railway station and no proper freeway interchange.

Currently, the residents of Thornhill Park have to turn left on to the West-bound lanes of the freeway and drive 5kms to the Ferris Road interchange at Melton to turn back on to the east-bound lanes to head towards Melbourne. A similar move is required to enter Thornhill Park from the West via the Leakes Rd interchange at Rockbank (about 3kms away).

There are no shops in Thornhill Park, nor are there any schools or any other places of employment. If you live there, you will be driving everywhere.

To add insult to injury, the Western Freeway at Thornhill Park has been impacted by ongoing roadworks for the past 2 years, but none of that is too add more lanes, or even to add a proper freeway interchange for either Paynes Rd or Mt. Cottrell Rd. This interchange hasn't even been planned. With that being the case, I can't see how a decent bus service can be provided.

Other parts of the Rockbank area aren't quite as bad off, with a new bus service being announced to be provided to link the new suburbs North of the freeway to the recently upgraded railway station. This will hopefully be only the first with more to come.

As for the trains, when the duplication work has finally opened (January) a 20 minute service to Melton/ Bacchus Marsh should be on the cards (with every 2nd train continuing on to Wendouree giving Ballarat their 40 minute service). This would match the Sunbury line and the Geelong line.

Electrification to Melton needs to happen in time for the opening of the Metro tunnel. This needs to happen with the quadding of most of the line.

Werribee and Tarneit

Werribee to Wyndham Vale needs to be connected up and Tarneit needs to be brought into the Metro system somehow. The area just that one station is expected to cover is ridiculous for any station, but for a V/Line service that also needs to cover Geelong it is just crazy. Tarneit is already V/Line's busiest station, according to the figures in the OP, the population of Tarneit can be expected to triple over that time period. This is untenable.

Flemington Racecourse

Improve the local bus service, improve the No.57 tram. Leave the heavy rail expenditure for the areas that actually need it.

While I am at it, anybody calling for the Flemington Racecourse line to be extended to Highpoint and points beyond needs to get their backside to Flemington Racecourse and actually have a good look around. The line literally ends up at the top of a big steep hill above the Maribyrnong River, Highpoint is further down the river up on its own hill.

So yeah, good luck with that one.

Wollert

A new line branching off the Mernda line from some point South of Epping heading North into Wollert is what is needed, but without Metro 2, I can't see where the track capacity will come from. The only other option is to re-direct the Upfield line in that direction instead of the much-talked-about-plan to connect that line up with Somerton-Craigieburn-Wallan. Personally I can't see that happening either. The best the good people of Wollert can hope for is a much improved bus network. They are going to need it.

Whittlesea

The new Mernda line has been built in a way that leaves the option for a future extension to Whittlesea open. This will happen, but not for at least another 10 years I wouldn't expect.

Cranbourne East/ South

The extension to Clyde has been committed to, with the line from Dandenong to Cranbourne to be duplicated within the next 3 years, and the extension to be done within the 4 years to follow. This lines up with Clyde opening around the same time as the Metro tunnel.

----

The major problems, which I'm guessing most of us on here already knew, are in Melbourne's long neglected outer Western suburbs. The entire area between Sunbury and Werribee is where Australia's largest population growth is going to be, and the rate of PT infrastructure investment is not going to be able to keep up.

It is indeed interesting times in which we live.
  John.Z Chief Train Controller

The major problems, which I'm guessing most of us on here already knew, are in Melbourne's long neglected outer Western suburbs. The entire area between Sunbury and Werribee is where Australia's largest population growth is going to be, and the rate of PT infrastructure investment is not going to be able to keep up.

It is indeed interesting times in which we live.
Gman_86
West is Best.......at being forgotten.

Interesting times.....more like painful times.

I feel for those who have the misfortune of living through the growing pains the western suburbs will go through the next 10/20/30 years as Melbourne grows up.

It's gonna suck.
  trainbrain Chief Commissioner

You may want to rethink for the land is up for sale, from the Quarry entrance to Station St in Coldsteam, lock stock and barrel.
That land may be up for sale but it is still zoned as 'Green Wedge', so there would be still be a great deal of process to go through before that land could be turned into housing.  Not that I'm saying it would be a bad idea (i.e. new housing estate next to a future train station), but I don't see it happening anytime soon...

Ross
Rossco T
boy have I got news for you, its is called Rates, and word has it the Council want it.
  Madjikthise Assistant Commissioner

You may want to rethink for the land is up for sale, from the Quarry entrance to Station St in Coldsteam, lock stock and barrel.
That land may be up for sale but it is still zoned as 'Green Wedge', so there would be still be a great deal of process to go through before that land could be turned into housing.  Not that I'm saying it would be a bad idea (i.e. new housing estate next to a future train station), but I don't see it happening anytime soon...

Ross
boy have I got news for you, its is called Rates, and word has it the Council want it.
trainbrain
Exactly this. Everyone's talking about new suburbs popping up but what about the existing outer suburbs where councils are allowing multiple unit re-developments on blocks which only had a single house. No additional transport is provided and obviously no extra roads as there is nowhere for them to go, and relying on a 1980s timetable.
All council has to do is provide an extra couple of bins per units and bam, double/triple/quadruple the rates from a former single property.

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