I don't disagree RTT and I am looking forward to an EV, but for me the reality right now in 2019/20 it doesn't stack up.
While agree with your assessment on the equivalent 1980s range for the biggest selling cars, why should I pay in 2019/20 for a 1980s range. My point is until they meet current range requirements, EVs will be niche.
They will become the predominate propulsion by 2030. But right now, I wouldn't place my hard earn on them.
I know that some are great, but they are beyond the mass market in terms of buy in for the range equation. For example I am about to do a 3,000km road trip with my family for Christmas. An EV would be a pain the A$$, it would force me to break up my journey more and add extra accommodation in real terms. I do not want that, I want convenience.
EVs are on the cusp, but they are not there yet on the value/range proposition. I accept Batteries will become better and therefore the range will be better. It will trickle down, like ABS, air bags, head up etc.
Understandably car companies will put newer batteries in higher cost models. Eventually due to competition that price point will be driven down and will be available to the mass market. At the moment, I do not see the mass market jumping into Tesla 3's, Porsche Taycans or Mercedes EQC. Nissan leaf apart from the battery debacle, doesn't have enough range hence they are not buying them. The only one in my opinion that might tick a box is the Outlander, but the cost and range is terrible. Plus I wouldn't buy one of those as the dynamics are terrible, for me.
I look forward to stomping my foot down at the lights with an EV, but I fear it will 10 years before they will realistically on my shopping list. It will happen, but not right now.
For now I'll say yes, no and in between to above.
I agree people want certain expectations from their cars, but never use. For example on the AMC project we were working Ford Head of Development. He said Ford F150 owners want heavier and heavier load capacity, but their research shows most F-150's never carry more than the weekly shopping. So what do you design for? The answer is what people will pay for.
For example, when was the lat time any of us here went on a >1000km road trip? If you have two cars at home, do both need this capability? For my parents the answer is no. My my family the answer is no.
The Nissan Leaf-e+ (or what ever its name) with its 60kWh battery is starting to have a practical range and will be released in Dubai next year, if the heat of Dubai and high road speeds of Dubaui/UAE don't destroy battery life here it won't in Oz, but the air cooling is a concern for me, for now! My wife wants her next car to be something like a Leaf, she drives 270km a day for work at an average speed of 120-130km/h. The Leaf-e+ can easily do this and of course recharge at night. No more petrol stations and for this she will be happy and key reason to change.
agree on the trickle down engineering, thats the nature of the industry.
You said you don't see the mass market jumping into the Model 3, this is one area I will state you are not correct and not paying attention to the sales of the Model 3, both here in Oz, Nth America and EU. Tesla is making 6000 a week and they are all sold months in advance.v The factory is flat out. Hence why a 2nd factory was built in China and opened recently and another in Germany is pending. Tesla knows it won't satisfy market demand with its facilities in the US for the Model Y.
Its likely the Tesla Model 3 will claim around 2% of the Australian market this year, having only been available for delivery from August and every car that arrives on ship is already sold months ago and shipping is constrained by US assembly rates. I believe it has now outsold the Camry. Which means it has achieved mass market status.
The annual family holiday issue seems to be one of the major sticking points. First up I'd say almost no one does a 3000km driving family holiday unless you are on a CAPE trip or similar.
So lets stick with more typical 1000km each way tops! As a kid we did the annual trip to the GC from Sydney to visit rels.
- Dad rarely stopped and only did so when the car needed fuel every 400km but we did have one meal break during the trip, something I hate then and now. These days with my kids etc, we tend to stop every 300 - 250km or 4h tops for bladder and at times a local sight see, play in the park etc.
A fast charge rate is around 50kW/ 10min. So by the time the family have gone for a pee, stretched their legs, maybe bought snack or had snack, etc the car is good for another 2h driving. A longer break and you are back over 3h. Not all that hard is it?
Yes the issue at the moment fast chargers are few and far between, but this is changing and quickly.
Back to what you buy the car for, weekly work commute etc. You wake up each morning to a full tank, again not that hard is it.
Yes the range of car choices is still limited and obviously not for everyone, but this is very much a work in progress.
For me, I buy 2y old cars, so it will be a while yet.