What on earth is going on with fuel prices at present?

On Saturday I went to Brisbane for a funeral, noticed E10 as high as 172.9c/l. At home here in Dalby the best price is currently 137.9c/l less 4c for shopping at a local supermarket. On the way home from Brisbane I filled up in Tooowoomba for 129.9c/l less 4c shopping discount. I've heard reports of fuel as high as 194.9c/l at the Sunshine Coast last week. (All E10 prices, as this is what I use, except for the last which was third hand info).

The words blatant rip-off come to mind. It's high time something was done about this thievery.

Oh You've been clobbered by....the Singapore Benchmark

Briefly....Australia's local oil refineries constantly compete with imported petroleum products from large highly efficient refineries in Asia, regardless of the cost of importing and refining crude oil. Consequently, the price of petrol at Australian refineries is based on international petrol prices. If local prices were higher than international prices, imports of petrol would displace local production.

This link explains how fuel is priced in Australia; but, one thing that gets me is that GST was supposed to "REPLACE" the Federal Govt. Fuel Excise tax...Yet, somehow Sir Humphrey left in and it lingers on - https://bulkfuel.com.au/news/the-singapore-benchmark-how-australia-prices-fuel

What on earth is going on with fuel prices at present?

On Saturday I went to Brisbane for a funeral, noticed E10 as high as 172.9c/l. At home here in Dalby the best price is currently 137.9c/l less 4c for shopping at a local supermarket. On the way home from Brisbane I filled up in Tooowoomba for 129.9c/l less 4c shopping discount. I've heard reports of fuel as high as 194.9c/l at the Sunshine Coast last week. (All E10 prices, as this is what I use, except for the last which was third hand info).

The words blatant rip-off come to mind. It's high time something was done about this thievery.

I've heard Australia has some of the highest internal fluctuation in fuel prices in the world, not surprisingly also one of the least regulated markets.

Fortunately there is an alternative coming quickly. EV!

Model 3, 5 year cost now on par with a Camry, other EV models similar in their respective markets. You have a number of charging stations from Dalby to Brisbane, with more coming.

Fuel in downtown Poland barely moves in price, it’s the same price today as when I came here three years ago. In all my time here I have seen the price move by maybe a few groszy which amounts to maybe AUD0.0075. The price is always AUD1.90/l currency adjusted, but there is nothing ‘less’ than 95 RON.

If you’re in Australia then one sure fire way of being ripped off on fuel is to buy E10, likely the most uneconomic fuel available.

You have a number of charging stations from Dalby to Brisbane, with more coming.

I've made my feelings known about this before. Dalby-Brisbane-Dalby is probably my least frequent drive. How many charging stations are there in the bush?

If you’re in Australia then one sure fire way of being ripped off on fuel is to buy E10, likely the most uneconomic fuel available.

When E10 was first marketed I would have agreed with you, but today's E10 appears to be so much better. At (up to) 4c/l cheaper I notice no difference in power or economy to 91 RON ULP. E10 RON rating appears to vary between "brands" often quoted as 94 or 95.

Oh You've been clobbered by....the Singapore Benchmark

This link explains how fuel is priced in Australia; but, one thing that gets me is that GST was supposed to "REPLACE" the Federal Govt. Fuel Excise tax...Yet, somehow Sir Humphrey left in and it lingers on - https://bulkfuel.com.au/news/the-singapore-benchmark-how-australia-prices-fuel

That doesn't seem to explain the difference in prices between cities/towns?

E10 is 90% petrol and 10% ethanol.

Ethanol has about 1/3 less (actually probably more like -35%) energy of combustion than petrol.

Unless there is a 3.5% (not $0.04/l) difference in price you’re paying for something you’re not getting.

The laws of thermodynamics are not open to interpretation, bending or any form of disagreement.

Fortunately there is an alternative coming quickly. EV!

Model 3, 5 year cost now on par with a Camry, other EV models similar in their respective markets. You have a number of charging stations from Dalby to Brisbane, with more coming.

I agree this change is coming. However until the EV is near equivalent to the fossil fuel vehicle in purchasing price with a similar range, most will opt for fossil fuel.

For me I need a vehicle with around 600km range at around $50k. My current vehicle does that.

I think in terms of satisfying 80% of the market that will occur over the next decade and EVs should be the majority by 2030, if range is achieved for similar performance and carrying capacity. But right now. Nope. EVs do suit some in the urban environment, but not the majority.

They can have charging stations at every corner, but the current inconvenience to recharge for the length of time is an issue. The tipping point is once the promised range is achieved for the equivalent price point for a once daily recharge. People have cars for convenience.

E10 is 90% petrol and 10% ethanol.

Ethanol has about 1/3 less (actually probably more like -35%) energy of combustion than petrol.

Unless there is a 3.5% (not $0.04/l) difference in price you’re paying for something you’re not getting.

The laws of thermodynamics are not open to interpretation, bending or any form of disagreement.

Spot on. False economy if the difference is less than 3.5% difference in price. I think the $0.04/L comes from the shopping discount thinking. I find it interesting that $0.04/L discount has been like that since the schemes were introduced for at least 2 decades, yet people choose their servos based on that. $0.04/L was a decent discount, but not anymore.

Also I find it interesting how people are passionate about petrol prices and can be a major cost for some, if they have to pay for fuel going to work for any great distance. The reality is that our petrol prices is amongst the cheapest in the world and has been for many years:
https://www.aip.com.au/pricing/international-prices/international-price-comparisons

My biggest concern is not prices, but our fuel security. We are nuts losing our refining ability. At the moment we are heading to 100% petrol importation by 2030 (note we will still export significant amount of crude oil).  That is alarming.

If that occurs, we will will totally let both supply and pricing be dictated by the global market. At the moment locally refined fuels can influence pricing. We will lose that ability.

Compared to the OECD - yes, we have cheap petrol.

Compared to nations nearby that have big subsidies on fuel such as Indonesia (who pay $0.46 per Litre at present), we're expensive.

What was that about the developing world asking for compensation to reduce Greenhouse Gas Emissions at the Madrid Climate talks???

Oh You've been clobbered by....the Singapore Benchmark

This link explains how fuel is priced in Australia; but, one thing that gets me is that GST was supposed to "REPLACE" the Federal Govt. Fuel Excise tax...Yet, somehow Sir Humphrey left in and it lingers on - https://bulkfuel.com.au/news/the-singapore-benchmark-how-australia-prices-fuel

That doesn't seem to explain the difference in prices between cities/towns?

"That doesn't seem to explain the difference in prices between cities/towns?"


Try resorting to using this....https://petrolspy.com.au/map/latlng/-27.18529697497717/151.26219587888772

You have a number of charging stations from Dalby to Brisbane, with more coming.

I've made my feelings known about this before. Dalby-Brisbane-Dalby is probably my least frequent drive. How many charging stations are there in the bush?

Yes, but times change and nothing faster than in the EV world. You now have a fast charger at Dalby and a number of locations all the way to Ipswich and next year more again.

The Plug share maps shows lots of options in the bush, however Roma west are more destionation chargers so really 4-6h of charging time.

My mid next year if you are driving Nth Sth on the Newell Highway or places east in NSW and Qld then you won't have an issue recharging on a regular basis although in some locations you will need to plan it a bit. Certainly with many of the models hitting the roads these day range is no worse than an XF Falcon.

If I was moving to Dalby tomorrow and there was an EV option in the type of car I wanted to buy near new condition (I drive a Ford Ranger so currently not yet), I wouldn't hesitate to have 1 of our 2 cars an EV. Probably one EV SUV/Sedan and other diesel 4x4 for now.

On this, my dad challenged me with having an EV 4x4, in 10 years of 4x4 ownership in Oz, first a old Sierra with a 400km range tank, I never drove more than 250km away from Gladstone despite all the camping and tracks, even charity rally we entered and won. Only twice would I have refueled twice in one day.

With our Hiluix Surf, it was driven to Cape York once, so no not suited, I would have hired a 4x4 for that and wish I did anyway and kept the Sierra which we sold to buy the Hilux. It was driven to Brisbane once, for sale. Apart from the Cape it was never refueled twice in one day and I used to commute to Rocky in it.

The replacement was a Ford Courier Hurricane, nice car, the only big trip we did in this was Gladstone, Canarvon Gorge, St George, Tumut through the Snowy Mtns and back up the east coast. It was never refueled twice in one day but had a 600km range on one tank. In theory today I could do the same trip as an EV if we planned it out. But agree not ideal just yet but doable.

Anyway, the anti EV excuses are dying fast.

Oh You've been clobbered by....the Singapore Benchmark

Briefly....Australia's local oil refineries constantly compete with imported petroleum products from large highly efficient refineries in Asia, regardless of the cost of importing and refining crude oil. Consequently, the price of petrol at Australian refineries is based on international petrol prices. If local prices were higher than international prices, imports of petrol would displace local production.

This link explains how fuel is priced in Australia; but, one thing that gets me is that GST was supposed to "REPLACE" the Federal Govt. Fuel Excise tax...Yet, somehow Sir Humphrey left in and it lingers on - https://bulkfuel.com.au/news/the-singapore-benchmark-how-australia-prices-fuel

The GST was never to replace the Fed govt excise or state taxes either. What they did is reduce taxes, fed or state, not sure but I think Fed to offset the GST to prevent an increase or a tax on a tax.

Australian retail prices vary due to reasons we all know and its pure marketting ad being going on for decades so why are we still asking why fuel prices vary so much. There are no surprises and in general most of us if we plan can avoid paying the peak prices. Or if you want to help stop the price variances, buy the most expensive!

We all know Tues-Wed is usually the cheapest. The average car goes +600km on a tank, the average car in Oz does 300-350km/wk, so if you are not filling up mid week how can anyone help?

As for price variances from city to country and any other geographic location. We all know this is driven by localised events and competition. There are plenty of Aps to show you the latest price around and how to pay less so what can anyone else do to help you not driving into the highest price petrol station in town.

Fortunately there is an alternative coming quickly. EV!

Model 3, 5 year cost now on par with a Camry, other EV models similar in their respective markets. You have a number of charging stations from Dalby to Brisbane, with more coming.

I agree this change is coming. However until the EV is near equivalent to the fossil fuel vehicle in purchasing price with a similar range, most will opt for fossil fuel.

For me I need a vehicle with around 600km range at around $50k. My current vehicle does that.

I think in terms of satisfying 80% of the market that will occur over the next decade and EVs should be the majority by 2030, if range is achieved for similar performance and carrying capacity. But right now. Nope. EVs do suit some in the urban environment, but not the majority.

They can have charging stations at every corner, but the current inconvenience to recharge for the length of time is an issue. The tipping point is once the promised range is achieved for the equivalent price point for a once daily recharge. People have cars for convenience.

Most bigger EV's today or hitting the market have ranges of mid 1980's cars, such as EF Falcon, Suziki's, Corolla and other cars I've owned from that era.

As for the purchase price, yes there is still a premium but if factor in life cycle costs or at least 5 year life costs and acknowledge the significant savings in fuel and maintenance. Nissan is obviously seeing people acknowledge this a few people are taking up their offer to rent the battery to reduce the purchase cost.  The Model 3 has taken 5% of the entire car market in its first 4mth in Oz, so clearly there are people out there who see this as value for money plus the other EV's.

The recharge issue is more mindset than reality
- average driver does 50km/d, 350km/wk
- Less than most larger EV's range
- Most people still live in a home where charging O/N is possible
- How many times have you refueled your car twice in one day? For most its less than a few times a year, maybe the family holiday.

- If you can charge at home, your car will be fully charged every morning using off-peak power, this issues seems to be overlooked all too often. 350km/W is around $10-15/week in fuel costs on off-peak power.

- When refueling on these longer trips are you really need for a F1 pit stop timing and do you really do it? How many do the tag team refueling and pi$$ break? With rehcarge rates of 150-200km/15min, is this such a drain on your life if you factor in getting a bite to eat, smoke, stretch the legs, walk the dog, let the kids run around, navigating etc etc.

Are we at the 80% now, no. I drive a Ranger, no EV option available and the Tesla pickup or F150 EV is not something that interests me. Currently I don't believe any manufacturer has this type of vehicle in plan for an EV option as they are used in less EV friendly countries and operations.

Are cities better suited to EV? Not really, 99% of regional people live in a house, not hard to run out an extension cord and charge over night. Not so easy to run an extension cord out if you live in an apartment, to house with no garage, street parking etc. Do country people drive hundreds of km all over the place, no rarely, yes I've lived in regional areas too as does my brother in remote part of WA. One of their two cars was delivered on a truck and never driven further than 100km from town in years.

Realistically >60% of the Australian car fleet could switch tomorrow if there was an EV model available. Price, yes they are still a bit steep to buy, but people need to focus on lifecycle costs.

https://www.aip.com.au/pricing/international-prices/international-price-comparisons

My biggest concern is not prices, but our fuel security. We are nuts losing our refining ability. At the moment we are heading to 100% petrol importation by 2030 (note we will still export significant amount of crude oil).  That is alarming.

If that occurs, we will will totally let both supply and pricing be dictated by the global market. At the moment locally refined fuels can influence pricing. We will lose that ability.

Fuel demand by 2030 will decrease dramatically with roll-out EV, hybrid and ongoing reduction in fuel consumption for conventional cars. (Prediction 2020, new car says will be roughly 5% EV, 2021, >10% of new cars in Oz will be EV and rise 5-10% of total sales each year from that)

The issues with strategic supply and reducing refining capacity will follow suit, should we allow it to happen???

As per my understanding, exported Oz crude oil is light sweet crude, not suited to being used solely in Oz as lacks heavies and worth a premium over normal crude.

You now have a fast charger at Dalby and a number of locations all the way to Ipswich and next year more again.

Of course, once (almost) everyone is driving an EV, a single fast charger in any town is going to generate a significant queue! Dalby's is also in a very difficult to access position https://goo.gl/maps/TVjM2WR6RttMPHaD6 (unless there are others I don't know about). I'm far more likely to be driving in any direction other than east!



Edit: Nothing I do shrinks the image!

Try resorting to using this....https://petrolspy.com.au/map/latlng/-27.18529697497717/151.26219587888772

Which also explains nothing to me.

My issue is not where to buy fuel, but why the current rip-off system is allowed to continue!

Try resorting to using this....https://petrolspy.com.au/map/latlng/-27.18529697497717/151.26219587888772

Which also explains nothing to me.

My issue is not where to buy fuel, but why the current rip-off system is allowed to continue!

I simply don't believe anyone in govt cares or believes the system is readily fixable without interfering with free enterprise. The argument has always been "you don't need to pay the premium price and regulating the price just means no one gets cheaper fuel".

Petrol/diesel pricing is more emotionally sensitive to people compared to other retail items, including beer and look at the unrest it causes in other countries. But after how many decades of no change and modern technology makes it far easier to avoid higher cost petrol due to car fuel tank range and mobile aps to show you prices.  I suppose though EV's really are the ultimate solution to the whole fuel price issue once and for all, maybe not for you or anyone else individually today but within the next few years most certainly.

Of course, once (almost) everyone is driving an EV, a single fast charger in any town is going to generate a significant queue! Dalby's is also in a very difficult to access position https://goo.gl/maps/TVjM2WR6RttMPHaD6 (unless there are others I don't know about). I'm far more likely to be driving in any direction other than east!

This was a time THE petrol station in Dalby would have had only one pump and then as the number of cars grew they invested and added more pumps. I'm sure at one stage Brisbane had just one petrol station and just one pump as well. Those riding horses wondering why we need such a new fangled contraption and what happens if you want to drive to Ipswich, where would you fill up? As the number of cars in Brisbane grew, that pump probably had a queue as well until someone else decided to cash in a build their own pump.

Didn't realise it was so far from you in the greater metropolis of Dalby. However the EV charge is on the edge of the railway yard so if you need an excuse to watch trains for while, there you go!

Of course you do have 1 final option that you don't seem to appreciate, but one of these new fangled contraptions and charge it at home, therefore when you wake up your car is fully fueled, everytime and for a fraction of the price of petrol.

It would appear I also cannot make the image smaller.

On the charging of EVs:

As it takes a while to charge your vehicle, I assume you would go do something else (in Dalby you could cross the road to the pub or shops for example) while it is charging. What is to stop someone from unplugging your car and charging theirs while you pay?

The problem with fast charging is that it ruins battery longevity.

A second more subtle problem exists, if you want to enjoy the benefits of fast charging you have to accept that your EV’s range is now only 60% of what you’re told it is.

Fortunately there is an alternative coming quickly. EV!

Model 3, 5 year cost now on par with a Camry, other EV models similar in their respective markets. You have a number of charging stations from Dalby to Brisbane, with more coming.

I agree this change is coming. However until the EV is near equivalent to the fossil fuel vehicle in purchasing price with a similar range, most will opt for fossil fuel.

For me I need a vehicle with around 600km range at around $50k. My current vehicle does that.

I think in terms of satisfying 80% of the market that will occur over the next decade and EVs should be the majority by 2030, if range is achieved for similar performance and carrying capacity. But right now. Nope. EVs do suit some in the urban environment, but not the majority.

They can have charging stations at every corner, but the current inconvenience to recharge for the length of time is an issue. The tipping point is once the promised range is achieved for the equivalent price point for a once daily recharge. People have cars for convenience.

Most bigger EV's today or hitting the market have ranges of mid 1980's cars, such as EF Falcon, Suziki's, Corolla and other cars I've owned from that era.

As for the purchase price, yes there is still a premium but if factor in life cycle costs or at least 5 year life costs and acknowledge the significant savings in fuel and maintenance. Nissan is obviously seeing people acknowledge this a few people are taking up their offer to rent the battery to reduce the purchase cost.  The Model 3 has taken 5% of the entire car market in its first 4mth in Oz, so clearly there are people out there who see this as value for money plus the other EV's.

The recharge issue is more mindset than reality
- average driver does 50km/d, 350km/wk
- Less than most larger EV's range
- Most people still live in a home where charging O/N is possible
- How many times have you refueled your car twice in one day? For most its less than a few times a year, maybe the family holiday.

- If you can charge at home, your car will be fully charged every morning using off-peak power, this issues seems to be overlooked all too often. 350km/W is around $10-15/week in fuel costs on off-peak power.

- When refueling on these longer trips are you really need for a F1 pit stop timing and do you really do it? How many do the tag team refueling and pi$$ break? With rehcarge rates of 150-200km/15min, is this such a drain on your life if you factor in getting a bite to eat, smoke, stretch the legs, walk the dog, let the kids run around, navigating etc etc.

Are we at the 80% now, no. I drive a Ranger, no EV option available and the Tesla pickup or F150 EV is not something that interests me. Currently I don't believe any manufacturer has this type of vehicle in plan for an EV option as they are used in less EV friendly countries and operations.

Are cities better suited to EV? Not really, 99% of regional people live in a house, not hard to run out an extension cord and charge over night. Not so easy to run an extension cord out if you live in an apartment, to house with no garage, street parking etc. Do country people drive hundreds of km all over the place, no rarely, yes I've lived in regional areas too as does my brother in remote part of WA. One of their two cars was delivered on a truck and never driven further than 100km from town in years.

Realistically >60% of the Australian car fleet could switch tomorrow if there was an EV model available. Price, yes they are still a bit steep to buy, but people need to focus on lifecycle costs.

I don't disagree RTT and I am looking forward to an EV, but for me the reality right now in 2019/20 it doesn't stack up.

While agree with your assessment on the equivalent 1980s range for the biggest selling cars, why should I pay in 2019/20 for a 1980s range. My point is until they meet current range requirements, EVs will be niche.

They will become the predominate propulsion by 2030. But right now, I wouldn't place my hard earn on them.

I know that some are great, but they are beyond the mass market in terms of buy in for the range equation. For example I am about to do a 3,000km road trip with my family for Christmas. An EV would be a pain the A$$, it would force me to break up my journey more and add extra accommodation in real terms. I do not want that, I want convenience.

EVs are on the cusp, but they are not there yet on the value/range proposition. I accept Batteries will become better and therefore the range will be better. It will trickle down, like ABS, air bags, head up etc.

Understandably car companies will put newer batteries in higher cost models. Eventually due to competition that price point will be driven down and will be available to the mass market. At the moment, I do not see the mass market jumping into Tesla 3's, Porsche Taycans or Mercedes EQC. Nissan leaf apart from the battery debacle, doesn't have enough range hence they are not buying them. The only one in my opinion that might tick a box is the Outlander, but the cost and range is terrible. Plus I wouldn't buy one of those as the dynamics are terrible, for me.

I look forward to stomping my foot down at the lights with an EV, but I fear it will 10 years before they will realistically on my shopping list. It will happen, but not right now.

I don't disagree RTT and I am looking forward to an EV, but for me the reality right now in 2019/20 it doesn't stack up.

While agree with your assessment on the equivalent 1980s range for the biggest selling cars, why should I pay in 2019/20 for a 1980s range. My point is until they meet current range requirements, EVs will be niche.

They will become the predominate propulsion by 2030. But right now, I wouldn't place my hard earn on them.

I know that some are great, but they are beyond the mass market in terms of buy in for the range equation. For example I am about to do a 3,000km road trip with my family for Christmas. An EV would be a pain the A$$, it would force me to break up my journey more and add extra accommodation in real terms. I do not want that, I want convenience.

EVs are on the cusp, but they are not there yet on the value/range proposition. I accept Batteries will become better and therefore the range will be better. It will trickle down, like ABS, air bags, head up etc.

Understandably car companies will put newer batteries in higher cost models. Eventually due to competition that price point will be driven down and will be available to the mass market. At the moment, I do not see the mass market jumping into Tesla 3's, Porsche Taycans or Mercedes EQC. Nissan leaf apart from the battery debacle, doesn't have enough range hence they are not buying them. The only one in my opinion that might tick a box is the Outlander, but the cost and range is terrible. Plus I wouldn't buy one of those as the dynamics are terrible, for me.

I look forward to stomping my foot down at the lights with an EV, but I fear it will 10 years before they will realistically on my shopping list. It will happen, but not right now.

hi
For now I'll say yes, no and in between to above.

I agree people want certain expectations from their cars, but never use. For example on the AMC project we were working Ford Head of Development. He said Ford F150 owners want heavier and heavier load capacity, but their research shows most F-150's never carry more than the weekly shopping. So what do you design for? The answer is what people will pay for.

For example, when was the lat time any of us here went on a >1000km road trip? If you have two cars at home, do both need this capability? For my parents the answer is no. My my family the answer is no.

The Nissan Leaf-e+ (or what ever its name) with its 60kWh battery is starting to have a practical range and will be released in Dubai next year, if the heat of Dubai and high road speeds of Dubaui/UAE don't destroy battery life here it won't in Oz, but the air cooling is a concern for me, for now! My wife wants her next car to be something like a Leaf, she drives 270km a day for work at an average speed of 120-130km/h. The Leaf-e+ can easily do this and of course recharge at night. No more petrol stations and for this she will be happy and key reason to change.

agree on the trickle down engineering, thats the nature of the industry.

You said you don't see the mass market jumping into the Model 3, this is one area I will state you are not correct and not paying attention to the sales of the Model 3, both here in Oz, Nth America and EU. Tesla is making 6000 a week and they are all sold months in advance.v The factory is flat out. Hence why a 2nd factory was built in China and opened recently and another in Germany is pending. Tesla knows it won't satisfy market demand with its facilities in the US for the Model Y.

Its likely the Tesla Model 3 will claim around 2% of the Australian market this year, having only been available for delivery from August and every car that arrives on ship is already sold months ago and shipping is constrained by US assembly rates. I believe it has now outsold the Camry. Which means it has achieved mass market status.

EDIT:
The annual family holiday issue seems to be one of the major sticking points. First up I'd say almost no one does a 3000km driving family holiday unless you are on a CAPE trip or similar.

So lets stick with more typical 1000km each way tops! As a kid we did the annual trip to the GC from Sydney to visit rels.
- Dad rarely stopped and only did so when the car needed fuel every 400km but we did have one meal break during the trip, something I hate then and now. These days with my kids etc, we tend to stop every 300 - 250km or 4h tops for bladder and at times a local sight see, play in the park etc.

A fast charge rate is around 50kW/ 10min. So by the time the family have gone for a pee, stretched their legs, maybe bought  snack or had snack, etc the car is good for another 2h driving. A longer break and you are back over 3h. Not all that hard is it?

Yes the issue at the moment fast chargers are few and far between, but this is changing and quickly.

Back to what you buy the car for, weekly work commute etc. You wake up each morning to a full tank, again not that hard is it.

Yes the range of car choices is still limited and obviously not for everyone, but this is very much a work in progress.

For me, I buy 2y old cars, so it will be a while yet.