The corona virus COVID-19

 
  Aaron The Ghost of George Stephenson

Location: University of Adelaide SA
Yeah, I had seen the Carnival COVID-19 vs Costa Concordia numbers too. I noticed that Flight Centre was open yesterday, I was quite tempted as I walked past to go in and see if I could book a cruise.

Even today, I reckon there’d be a bit of dust and some cobwebs for them to clear from the brochures.


Carnival CEO claims 2021 bookings are strong.

https://www.foxnews.com/travel/carnival-ceo-says-bookings-for-2021-are-strong-despite-coronavirus-outbreak
RTT_Rules
Of course they're currently strong, people have booked well in advance and have not got around to cancelling - yet...

A colleague of mine was telling me on Friday that she has not cancelled her cruise (albeit on the Danube) for next year yet, but she fully intends to, and she's effectively on a 'stretched limo' house boat, not a floating Bordertown.

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  Aaron The Ghost of George Stephenson

Location: University of Adelaide SA
I sit somewhere in the middle, the US have undoubtedly smeg up, but NY and California are certainly centres for cruises which is likely the root cause of most of their infections, similar to Australia. However, I remain unconvinced that China is being entirely truthful with their numbers, likewise Indonesia, or more likely, Indonesia are being truthful with their reported known cases, they’re just not testing in order to know.
NY and California are also major centres for business travel, particularly NYC with its direct flights to/from Milan.

Most cruise passengers arriving in NY or CA would probably have flown out to other states though, while business travellers are more likely to be based locally.

Florida is a hot spot which has a stronger direct correlation with cruises, being the state which serves as America's old (rich) folks home.
justapassenger
True.



Carnival for example is likely on NYSE.
Dual listed on the NYSE and LSE.

Company has two "head offices" in Miami and Southampton.
justapassenger
I didn't even think to look it up, I was originally going to say ECSE or BSE or similar, but decided that was 'too obvious'.
  Brianr Assistant Commissioner

Location: Dunedin, New Zealand
As Aaron wants to mention me by name perhaps due to my dual nationality and I am bored stiff while looking forward to my visit to the Supermarket tomorrow. I have not driven the car since my last visit 11 days ago. I have taken a 4 -5km walk from my house three times since but it has been too wet the last 4 days, hopefully today will be possible. If all this had not happened, I would now be in the air approaching Doha, after a 4 night visit with my only relative who lives in Sydney and looking forward to 8 weeks in Romania, Bulgaria, Albania, Kosovo and Greece. Instead I am negotiating with airlines and tour companies who do not understand that a 76 year old does not have a lot of confidence that he will ever use their vouchers in the future and would prefer a refund.
I know little about statistics, fortunately I just scraped through Economics statistics to obtain my degree in 1965 but have done little since.
However the figures being discussed are rounded in Australia's favour.
Based on yesterday, Australia had 6566 confirmed cases with a population (Worldometer) 25,440,859 giving 0.025808%
New Zealand had 1422  population (same source) 4,814,272 giving 0.029537%
As I said, I am not good at statistics but that is not 50% more
  justarider Deputy Commissioner

Location: Free at last, free at last
Funny calcultion can give you whatever answer you want to support an ideology.
No. No it cannot. Did you even take Statistics 101? Is that even a course in somewhere in Australia?

AND A VOLUME OF STUFF I WON"T BOTHER THE READERS TO REPEAT

Go ahead, use whatever calculations you can to support your ideology of the situation. Be sure to state and justify your assumptions.

I and I presume at least some of the rest of us are eager to see your above 'statistics 101' level of analysis.
Aaron
your brain must be hurting after staying up all night to write that epic effort.

All based on a couple of numbers, written by a concerned citizen who confirms (thanks @RTT_Rules) the calculations were dated, pretty rough, and then rounded.

Your assumptions based on these unscientific numbers, comes within my definition of statistical crap.
I wouldn't dream of doing a national statistical analysis, we have experts that do it properly who do not make wild assertions without factual basis.

I stand by my comment about low base. New cases: Australia = 55, NZ = 8. ( peaks AUS 450, NZ 80).
That's  0.00021618% vs 0.00016617% (NEW)   .00176881% vs .00166172% (PEAK) ,  (thanks @Brianr).
They're insignificant  and OOPS NZ are a better number.

BUT we all know that SAMPLES are useless in this pandemic.

We cannot make any assumptions about the whole population because we only have the capacity to test those we "think" might potentially be infected. That is statistical bias to the nth degree.
The rest we just don't know, and will not until a 100% census is taken, very unlikely.
  DirtyBallast Chief Commissioner

Location: I was here first. You're only visiting.
The obvious problem with your list is that it has been cherry picked.

Regarding infection rate let me add Switzerland 3.1%, Portugal 1.8%, Sweden 1.32%, Spain 0.4%, Italy 0.28%, France 0.22% for starters. They all have male leaders.

Your second paragraph is totally pointless. Infection rates have nowt to do with leadership gender, as you well know. Regardless whether the article itself was inaccurate, why give the broader issue any oxygen???

I posted English speaking, but as I was typing the female lead countries article popped up in my FB and LinkedIn, so I quickly added the female lead countries that I know of without googling. We all know there is Italy, Spain, the GCC countries, China.... but I wasn't going to be typing all day, however as you have done some more, why not just repost yours in the entire list as one? Makes it easy for every one to read, maybe others may choose to add there own.

Regarding your last statement, I think Aaron covered that well enough.
RTT_Rules
You posted English speaking countries then combined non-English speaking countries with them who happen to have female leaders because you got distracted. You then emphasised the latter list as if it was the point of your post. That's called a dog's breakfast.

Yes, I agree, you definitely need allies.
  bingley hall Minister for Railways

Location: Last train to Skaville
News just in: The Flat Earth Society are reporting social distancing is pushing some of their members over the edge!
  lsrailfan Chief Commissioner

Location: Somewhere you're not
News just in: The Flat Earth Society are reporting social distancing is pushing some of their members over the edge!
bingley hall


https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=bcYppAs6ZdI
  speedemon08 Mary

Location: I think by now you should have figured it out
0.02 to 0.03% means that our infection count goes from 6.5k to 9.75k that’s not a rounding error.

If our government ‘accidentally on purpose’ published a number of infections 3k less than the actual known you wouldn’t be so kind as to say ‘oh, they just made a little rounding error’ - you’d be expecting a resignation.
Aaron

It's easier to explain using fatal Aeroplane crashes: Add 0.01% to the statistic and it goes waaay up
  RTT_Rules Oliver Bullied, CME

Location: Dubai UAE

Of course they're currently strong, people have booked well in advance and have not got around to cancelling - yet...

A colleague of mine was telling me on Friday that she has not cancelled her cruise (albeit on the Danube) for next year yet, but she fully intends to, and she's effectively on a 'stretched limo' house boat, not a floating Bordertown.
"Aaron"


Yeah, not sure. I think by 2021 with this all behind us, things will start to improve. However it won't return to the boom period of the last few years for sometime.

If you haven't got around to cancelling, then unlikely a high priority and time will tell if they expect to proceed. Sounds like a great trip and I'm not sure why you pass up on the amazing opportunity with no reason to.
  RTT_Rules Oliver Bullied, CME

Location: Dubai UAE

All based on a couple of numbers, written by a concerned citizen who confirms (thanks @RTT_Rules) the calculat
"justarider"


The context of my original post was basically to show that the Australia was performing equal or slightly better than NZ which gets repeatedly put up in lights as the poster child for how to deal with the CV along wit the article referencing that all the female lead countries are poster child's for CV management, when clearly they are not better.

Also noting that NZ vs Aust has less international air traffic and cruise ships. Meanwhile most of the rest of the female led countries in this CV article including Estonia, Finland, Iceland, Slovenia etc are hardly centre of the universe for international traffic, Germany being the exception.

As I posted 0.02% for Aus vs 0.03% for NZ using the numbers available at the time, yes you could take that to be 50% worse.
  Carnot Minister for Railways

New York City death toll now up to 14000.  That's nearly 1 in 500 residents of that city.  A terrible toll there.
  KRviator Moderator

Location: Up the front
I wonder how The Don is feeling, after his Presidency has overseen 10x the fatalities of the September 11 attacks. And I would suggest a great majority of those may have been preventable...
  Dangersdan707 Chief Commissioner

Location: On a Thing with Internet
People can go down the don_dunstan course and blame it all on the Chinese, or they can take a balanced view of the world.
They ARE responsible, they repeatedly lied about everything to do with the disease outbreak until it was far too late. As late as January they were still telling lies, including using WHO to spread misinformation about the transmission of the disease - on January 15th they were still saying human to human transmission wasn't possible. How is that NOT RESPONSIBLE for the global spread of a disease that could have been stopped much earlier if they'd told the truth?

Geez, how many times does this have to be repeated to the commie-lovers here! Instead you're trying to somehow - SOMEHOW - blame Trump (what a shock!) for an outbreak of a disease whose sole origin is looking increasingly like a bio-weapons research laboratory in Wuhan from where it escaped.
don_dunstan
Fake news. Must cling to shallow conspiracy theories to bash the evil china and praise el Donaldo Laughing.
https://www.abc.net.au/news/2020-04-18/coronavirus-misinformation-origin-theory-donald-trump-wuhan-lab/12158774

https://www.usatoday.com/story/news/factcheck/2020/03/21/fact-check-did-coronavirus-originate-chinese-laboratory/2881150001/

https://foreignpolicy.com/2020/01/29/coronavirus-china-lab-mortality-virology-wuhan-virus-not-bioweapon/

This entire debacle really, exposed how caught up in the Asia-phobia the west really is.
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/apr/17/survey-of-covid-19-racism-against-asian-australians-records-178-incidents-in-two-weeks

https://www.cnn.com/2020/04/10/opinions/how-to-fight-bias-against-asian-americans-covid-19-liu/index.html
Another post of mine that shall be ignored by the enlightened one as it fails to fit in his narrow world view. But hey, I'm just an evil commie fellow traveller destroying western civilisation...
  Carnot Minister for Railways

People can go down the don_dunstan course and blame it all on the Chinese, or they can take a balanced view of the world.
They ARE responsible, they repeatedly lied about everything to do with the disease outbreak until it was far too late. As late as January they were still telling lies, including using WHO to spread misinformation about the transmission of the disease - on January 15th they were still saying human to human transmission wasn't possible. How is that NOT RESPONSIBLE for the global spread of a disease that could have been stopped much earlier if they'd told the truth?

Geez, how many times does this have to be repeated to the commie-lovers here! Instead you're trying to somehow - SOMEHOW - blame Trump (what a shock!) for an outbreak of a disease whose sole origin is looking increasingly like a bio-weapons research laboratory in Wuhan from where it escaped.
Fake news. Must cling to shallow conspiracy theories to bash the evil china and praise el Donaldo Laughing.
https://www.abc.net.au/news/2020-04-18/coronavirus-misinformation-origin-theory-donald-trump-wuhan-lab/12158774

https://www.usatoday.com/story/news/factcheck/2020/03/21/fact-check-did-coronavirus-originate-chinese-laboratory/2881150001/

https://foreignpolicy.com/2020/01/29/coronavirus-china-lab-mortality-virology-wuhan-virus-not-bioweapon/

This entire debacle really, exposed how caught up in the Asia-phobia the west really is.
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/apr/17/survey-of-covid-19-racism-against-asian-australians-records-178-incidents-in-two-weeks

https://www.cnn.com/2020/04/10/opinions/how-to-fight-bias-against-asian-americans-covid-19-liu/index.html
Another post of mine that shall be ignored by the enlightened one as it fails to fit in his narrow world view. But hey, I'm just an evil commie fellow traveller destroying western civilisation...
Dangersdan707
It most probably was of natural origins and crazy/silly Donald likes to deflect things, but the local CCP totally stuffed up in the early days trying to cover-up and avoid stating there was a problem.  The WHO is likewise corrupt and influenced by CCP money.

Do you realize how nasty the racism has been towards many people of color in China these days?  Hatred and prejudice is not just a white person's evil.

Anyway, keep an eye on Singapore.  It's not particularly egalitarian, and after receiving the praises of many just a few weeks ago of how it was handling the outbreak, is now seeing the virus run rampant through the migrant worker dormitories where social distancing is impossible.   It doesn't help that those migrant workers are treated as second and third class people in that country.
  lsrailfan Chief Commissioner

Location: Somewhere you're not
Australia has only recorded 7 new cases of Coronavirus in the country today, this is extremely good news, it goes to show that the social distancing measures and all the restrictions that we have in place ARE working, although we must not be complacent, the trick will now be when the restrictions get lifted will we get another spike in cases?? (Edit), I think when restrictions finally start to get lifted, they will be done little by little.
  RTT_Rules Oliver Bullied, CME

Location: Dubai UAE


Do you realize how nasty the racism has been towards many people of color in China these days?  Hatred and prejudice is not just a white person's evil.

Anyway, keep an eye on Singapore.  It's not particularly egalitarian, and after receiving the praises of many just a few weeks ago of how it was handling the outbreak, is now seeing the virus run rampant through the migrant worker dormitories where social distancing is impossible.   It doesn't help that those migrant workers are treated as second and third class people in that country.
"Carnot"


If anyone not white ever tells you white people are racist, they need to be educated. In my travels I have seen some horrific culturally entrenched racism that makes anything we did seem minor. It goes on today, the Indians and some other cultures are completely open, its used in TV advertising, marriage selection, job selection/promotion....

Don't know about camps in Singapore, but  I just helped relocate our people (1300) to one in Abu Dhabi, short term. Many stayed in our Dubai camp but issue with border crossing. Not all camps are equal. Also camp is not where our people are getting infected, its their homes and commute to work. I have 4 in my team of 30 infected.
  Graham4405 Minister for Railways

Location: Dalby Qld
the trick will now be when the restrictions get lifted will we get another spike in cases??
lsrailfan
The Gold Coast's beaches have been reopened on the first day of 0 new cases in Queensland. Really??
  lsrailfan Chief Commissioner

Location: Somewhere you're not
the trick will now be when the restrictions get lifted will we get another spike in cases??
The Gold Coast's beaches have been reopened on the first day of 0 new cases in Queensland. Really??
Graham4405
Yes, probably a bit too soon, one hopes they are monitoring social distancing up there, we will find out whether or not it has been too soon in a week or 2 I suppose.
  don_dunstan The Ghost of George Stephenson

Location: Adelaide proud
Fake news. Must cling to shallow conspiracy theories to bash the evil china and praise el Donaldo Laughing.
https://www.abc.net.au/news/2020-04-18/coronavirus-misinformation-origin-theory-donald-trump-wuhan-lab/12158774

https://www.usatoday.com/story/news/factcheck/2020/03/21/fact-check-did-coronavirus-originate-chinese-laboratory/2881150001/

https://foreignpolicy.com/2020/01/29/coronavirus-china-lab-mortality-virology-wuhan-virus-not-bioweapon/
Dangersdan707
It's a more plausible explanation than a zoonotic origin. Think about it; what makes more sense: escaped from a laboratory that specializes in dangerous viruses or someone got it from eating a raw bat?
This entire debacle really, exposed how caught up in the Asia-phobia the west really is. https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/apr/17/survey-of-covid-19-racism-against-asian-australians-records-178-incidents-in-two-weeks https://www.cnn.com/2020/04/10/opinions/how-to-fight-bias-against-asian-americans-covid-19-liu/index.html Another post of mine that shall be ignored by the enlightened one as it fails to fit in his narrow world view. But hey, I'm just an evil commie fellow traveller destroying western civilisation...
Dangersdan707
LOL yeah because only white people are capable of racism - just like when people were staying away from the various "Chinatown" districts it was the fault of racist white people who were racist again the Chinese (had nothing to do with Coronavirus).

Of course, Chinese people could never, ever be racist... could they.



https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Few8kJ0zfnY
  RTT_Rules Oliver Bullied, CME

Location: Dubai UAE
It's a more plausible explanation than a zoonotic origin. Think about it; what makes more sense: escaped from a laboratory that specializes in dangerous viruses or someone got it from eating a raw bat?
"don_dunstan"


No, its natural, happened before, just this one got away from them.

As a bio-weapon, CV-19 is not very effective as those most prone to illness or death are those normally not in the military. A bio-weapon that is barely more than a few days with cold like symptoms at best for you healthy adults who make up the front lines of your military is useless.

The Spanish flu was far more effective as a bio-weapon.

This entire debacle really, exposed how caught up in the Asia-phobia the west really is. https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/apr/17/survey-of-covid-19-racism-against-asian-australians-records-178-incidents-in-two-weeks https://www.cnn.com/2020/04/10/opinions/how-to-fight-bias-against-asian-americans-covid-19-liu/index.html Another post of mine that shall be ignored by the enlightened one as it fails to fit in his narrow world view. But hey, I'm just an evil commie fellow traveller destroying western civilisation...
Dangersdan707
LOL yeah because only white people are capable of racism - just like when people were staying away from the various "Chinatown" districts it was the fault of racist white people who were racist again the Chinese (had nothing to do with Coronavirus).

Of course, Chinese people could never, ever be racist... could they.

"don_dunstan"


With Chinese rels on the other side of the family, I can confidently say any racism exhibited by "white" population towards Chinese is NOTHING compared to their own by themselves and what they have done to the African's living in China.

Colonialism, NAZI's and slave trade into the USA popularised the evils "White" racism around the world, however despite the horror of the past, this is nothing compared to what goes on today by Non-Whites against other Non-Whites.
  RTT_Rules Oliver Bullied, CME

Location: Dubai UAE
Australia has only recorded 7 new cases of Coronavirus in the country today....
"lsrailfan"


Hell we had more positives confirmed at work over the weekend and we are not a country!
  don_dunstan The Ghost of George Stephenson

Location: Adelaide proud
No, its natural, happened before, just this one got away from them.

As a bio-weapon, CV-19 is not very effective as those most prone to illness or death are those normally not in the military. A bio-weapon that is barely more than a few days with cold like symptoms at best for you healthy adults who make up the front lines of your military is useless.

The Spanish flu was far more effective as a bio-weapon.
RTT_Rules
Just because it's not effective as a bio-weapon doesn't mean it didn't escape from a lab. It completely crippled the world economy and has killed around 200,000 outside of China. Not effective? No, just unintended consequences from an unfinished project, that's all.

Happened before: Yeah well this time it happened to wander out of a lab instead of from an exotic food habit. They don't even eat bats at the Wuhan wet markets; the zoonotic story was just a cover.
  DCook Chief Train Controller

Location: The standard state
No, its natural, happened before, just this one got away from them.

As a bio-weapon, CV-19 is not very effective as those most prone to illness or death are those normally not in the military. A bio-weapon that is barely more than a few days with cold like symptoms at best for you healthy adults who make up the front lines of your military is useless.

The Spanish flu was far more effective as a bio-weapon.
Just because it's not effective as a bio-weapon doesn't mean it didn't escape from a lab. It completely crippled the world economy and has killed around 200,000 outside of China. Not effective? No, just unintended consequences from an unfinished project, that's all.

Happened before: Yeah well this time it happened to wander out of a lab instead of from an exotic food habit. They don't even eat bats at the Wuhan wet markets; the zoonotic story was just a cover.
don_dunstan
It was likely not bats that spread it to humans, it was the bats that spread it to pangolins which are the most common animal there
The bats are though to have spread it through droppings that landed in the cages and were then consumed by the pangolins as the area around the wet market is surrounded by bats

This is considered the most likely reason, especially since the tiger in New York was infected through a zoo worker proving that cross species transfer can happen through contact not related to eating

Selective reading is a common trait nowadays
  don_dunstan The Ghost of George Stephenson

Location: Adelaide proud
It was likely not bats that spread it to humans, it was the bats that spread it to pangolins which are the most common animal there
The bats are though to have spread it through droppings that landed in the cages and were then consumed by the pangolins as the area around the wet market is surrounded by bats

This is considered the most likely reason, especially since the tiger in New York was infected through a zoo worker proving that cross species transfer can happen through contact not related to eating

Selective reading is a common trait nowadays
DCook
LOL yeah right - bat droppings happened to be eaten by pangolins that were then eaten raw by people. That's a really complicated chain of events don't you think.

And the fact that a tiger got it from a human in New York proves zip.

The simplest explanation is usually the correct one - you're free to believe in your zoonotic fairy-tale if you like.
  bingley hall Minister for Railways

Location: Last train to Skaville
People can go down the don_dunstan course and blame it all on the Chinese, or they can take a balanced view of the world.
They ARE responsible, they repeatedly lied about everything to do with the disease outbreak until it was far too late. As late as January they were still telling lies, including using WHO to spread misinformation about the transmission of the disease - on January 15th they were still saying human to human transmission wasn't possible. How is that NOT RESPONSIBLE for the global spread of a disease that could have been stopped much earlier if they'd told the truth?

Geez, how many times does this have to be repeated to the commie-lovers here! Instead you're trying to somehow - SOMEHOW - blame Trump (what a shock!) for an outbreak of a disease whose sole origin is looking increasingly like a bio-weapons research laboratory in Wuhan from where it escaped.
Fake news. Must cling to shallow conspiracy theories to bash the evil china and praise el Donaldo Laughing.
https://www.abc.net.au/news/2020-04-18/coronavirus-misinformation-origin-theory-donald-trump-wuhan-lab/12158774

https://www.usatoday.com/story/news/factcheck/2020/03/21/fact-check-did-coronavirus-originate-chinese-laboratory/2881150001/

https://foreignpolicy.com/2020/01/29/coronavirus-china-lab-mortality-virology-wuhan-virus-not-bioweapon/

This entire debacle really, exposed how caught up in the Asia-phobia the west really is.
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/apr/17/survey-of-covid-19-racism-against-asian-australians-records-178-incidents-in-two-weeks

https://www.cnn.com/2020/04/10/opinions/how-to-fight-bias-against-asian-americans-covid-19-liu/index.html
Another post of mine that shall be ignored by the enlightened one as it fails to fit in his narrow world view. But hey, I'm just an evil commie fellow traveller destroying western civilisation...
It most probably was of natural origins and crazy/silly Donald likes to deflect things, but the local CCP totally stuffed up in the early days trying to cover-up and avoid stating there was a problem.  The WHO is likewise corrupt and influenced by CCP money.

Do you realize how nasty the racism has been towards many people of color in China these days?  Hatred and prejudice is not just a white person's evil.
Carnot
I'm well aware of the Crap that some of them have done to Africans in there homeland, such as refusing to serve them in Restaurants along with the phobia/superiority complex some of them have developed. I deplore all forms of racism and obviously don't endorse it at all.

I entirely agree that the Wuhan government's attempted to cover it all up, only to piss of the central government and everyone else on the planet, however I completely disagree with the notion of the CCP being a puppet-master of WHO, its just plain finger pointing by the right wingers in the US who wanna avoid being blamed. We shan't know anyhow till an enquiry is done into it.

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