Maybe listen to what the experts in the video have to say. They are not talking about masks during surgery, not talking about AIDS and they aren't saying don't wash your hands. They are not even saying don't wear masks, only that randomized trials have never proven efficacy in pandemics.
They are not saying not to wear them.
Regarding the flu, watch the video. They talk specifically about how the pattern for COVID is that it quickly filled hospitals for an 8 week window, then dropped right back, regardless of restrictions. There are some countries that went full curfew and were hit hard, others that did very little and got through fine. What was interesting is that there seems to be a pattern that countries that had a mild flu season last year did worse with COVID this year, suggesting there was a vulnerable population ready to go when COVID struck. Most interesting is how much deaths can vary from flu season to flu season. Some regular flu seasons cause as many deaths as COVID has, just not as quickly.
Regarding models...it seems they are probably right. COVID hasn't turned out to be anywhere near as deadly as the models predicted. In fact the predictions from back in Jan-Feb are starting to look pretty silly. Given that these guys basically specialize in pandemics and politicians don't...I know who I would be paying more attention to.
Regarding the Spanish Flu, they did mention this: COVID could be a faster moving less deadly virus that is already trending toward being less deadly. Like the guys say: you need to look at the real time evidence, not some olds models: COVID is roaring back in the EU, but the deaths are not following. Why?
It certainly adds more weight to the body of opinion, growing daily, that these lockdowns have been overkill and in hindsight were probably not the way to deal with this.
The point was masks in surgery are known way to eliminate the surgical staff from infecting the open wound on the patient through spray in their breathing and talking. There are numerous videos showing how the masks capture or minimise the emission of droplets. The same happens to apply to colds and flu which the Asian's have been doing for decades including past outbreaks of viruses. The almost zero deaths from the flu and very low rate of people even getting a cold this year more than a validates masks validity, yes other factors come into play and these all work together.
Culture and other local conditions played a major part in our some countries were affected more than others. For example the kissy kissy Italian's, French and Spaniards with their older populations in the hard hit areas were more likely to transmit the disease than younger Sweden or Australia where we rarely even shake hands compared to other cultures. Also Australia and Sweden are more likely to live in an stand alone house than the Latin European's, we shop once a week, not daily, we drive our own cars more than PT.....
The UK's poor outcome of the CV, even by US standards is believed to be due to the colder/wet climate with people living in more indoors, high use of PT etc.
The hospitals filling quickly was why the govts responded with lock downs. So within a few weeks of the social distancing rules, masks and limited freedom of movement you will of course get a reduction. The stats of the early deaths highlighted who was most at risk and these people from then on took greater precautions.
The typical seasonal flu kills 0.1 to 1% of its victims, CV-19 is 3.4% globally, but as high as 25% in some cultures/communities.
The Ro of CV-19 is now around 5.7, which requires herd immunity of 82% to keep it under control
The Ro of the Spanish flu is estimated to be 2.8 (max)
The Ro of the H1Ni1 (Swine flu) was less than 2 with more effective existing medicine. https://www.healthline.com/health/r-nought-reproduction-number#covid-19-r-0https://www.healthline.com/health/r-nought-reproduction-number#meaning
The deaths are not following in EU for a number of reasons stating in govt press releases, there is no why?
- CV-19 is spreading at a slower rate than below (flattening the curve)
- Effective treatment of CV-19 is improving, alot from what I understand
- Hospitals are not overun with something they don't know how to treat
- People are seeking help sooner
- The virus is expected to get weaker with time. For example H1N1 is now very common in the community, just very weak compared to its original outbreak.
The models used back in Jan/Feb are likely worst case and with no actions or minimal.
I would expect over the coming months there will be less and less restrictions as a combination of factors even without a vaccine, including better awareness (no kissy kissy), ongoing sterilization efforts ie more regular cleaning, improving medical response strategies and treatments and yes progressive weakening of the virus.