The corona virus COVID-19

 
  Aaron The Ghost of George Stephenson

Location: University of Adelaide SA
We can always go back to 1900 when the Australian Constitution was signed. WA didn't want to be a part of the Federation then either - we had to wait for them to have their referendum after the constitution was signed off by Queen Victoria. Phuck 'em off again and stop giving them the GST if they don't want to be part of our nation. Evil or Very Mad
KRviator
It’s not WA that’s the problem, we just need to boot Victoria, and issue NSW with a first and final written warning and then we will all be happy.

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  doyle Assistant Commissioner

WA is the problem for KRviator
I would hate to live in Renick and not be able to travel to the Mount because some idiot in Adelaide couldn't work out a system for people from the border communities
Australia needs a minister for 'compassionate and common sense border control'

Richard Colebec needs a.... Oppps
  Aaron The Ghost of George Stephenson

Location: University of Adelaide SA
WA is the problem for KRviator
I would hate to live in Renick and not be able to travel to the Mount because some idiot in Adelaide couldn't work out a system for people from the border communities
Australia needs a minister for 'compassionate and common sense border control'

Richard Colebec needs a.... Oppps
doyle
We do have people in Adelaide looking at compassionate allowances of crossings from Victorian border communities. What’s more we have a very simple method determining who is really from a border region and who is not - we simply make sure the idiots can correctly spell the locale they claim to be from. Hence, your application has just been denied.

Also, it’s Colbeck.

doyle needs a ... spelling lesson.
  doyle Assistant Commissioner

Play nice Aaron
  Mr. Lane Chief Commissioner

Found this to be a very interesting discussion with two Oxford epidemiologists.

They say that the lockdown policies in the EU/UK haven't been based on epidemiological advice and were a sudden panic response to the sharp spike in deaths early on. By the time the makeshift COVID hospitals in the UK were all set up, the ICU cases were already declining and the country lost sight of looking after the old and preparing hospitals to manage the spread of infection. In the end the makeshift COVID hospitals were never needed.

Half of the infections in the UK came after the lockdowns were imposed and nothing was done to prepare hospitals and aged care for the spread of the virus.

Interesting they say that existing models for epidemics are of limited value because every epidemic is different and there is no reason to think there will be a second wave, just because outbreaks like the Spanish Flu did, we are probably just seeing a resurgence of the first wave as countries come out of lockdowns and the virus resumes its spread.

They also say that the UK isn't on track for a particularly high number of excess deaths this year and there have been regular flu seasons comparable to this COVID outbreak and that COVID could just become another seasonal virus.

Interesting also there has never been a study to conclusively show that masks work...



https://youtu.be/Z3plSbCbkSA
  RTT_Rules Oliver Bullied, CME

Location: Dubai UAE
Found this to be a very interesting discussion with two Oxford epidemiologists.

They say that the lockdown policies in the EU/UK haven't been based on epidemiological advice and were a sudden panic response to the sharp spike in deaths early on. By the time the makeshift COVID hospitals in the UK were all set up, the ICU cases were already declining and the country lost sight of looking after the old and preparing hospitals to manage the spread of infection. In the end the makeshift COVID hospitals were never needed.

Half of the infections in the UK came after the lockdowns were imposed and nothing was done to prepare hospitals and aged care for the spread of the virus.

Interesting they say that existing models for epidemics are of limited value because every epidemic is different and there is no reason to think there will be a second wave, just because outbreaks like the Spanish Flu did, we are probably just seeing a resurgence of the first wave as countries come out of lockdowns and the virus resumes its spread.

They also say that the UK isn't on track for a particularly high number of excess deaths this year and there have been regular flu seasons comparable to this COVID outbreak and that COVID could just become another seasonal virus.

Interesting also there has never been a study to conclusively show that masks work...



https://youtu.be/Z3plSbCbkSA
"Mr. Lane"


The mask issue, they have got to be kidding?

+100 years of research surgery and diseases on how to prevent infections and cross contamination, the intensive research done following AIDS outbreak and now people are going, but are you sure?

Fun fact, look at how the death rate dropped quickly for new mothers having babies in hospitals after they worked out that the doctors should wash their hands in-between playing with cadavers and touching patients. This was highlighted because the women giving birth with midwives only had a significantly high survival rate than those with Dr's in attendance. Yet this research was rejected by the medical fraternity for sometime because Dr's didn't want to be told what to do.

Why is that we always have to learn the hard way? just put a mask on and be done with it.

The death rate from the regular flu is in an uncontrolled population, lower rate of infection and mortality. The flu doesn't normally fill hospitals. CV has more than proven it can fill hospitals and then some. The UK being one of the worse affected.

Wording should read, half the infections were diagnosed after the lock down had occurred as the lock down clearly limits the spread of the virus, but there is a lag between implementing a lock down and seeing diagnosis in decline.

Model's from previous outbreaks provide an insight in what this one will likely be. Each is however different due to the differences in the virus, local culture, economy, health system, govt ability to act, funding etc.

The Spanish flu is still a key bench mark because it provided alot of data for very different circumstances and this includes what happens to a virus over time, ie it normally gets less fatal through a combination of the changes in the virus as it mutates from surviving victims to other surviving victims PLUS improvements in treat strategies, which is what we are likely seeing now.
  RTT_Rules Oliver Bullied, CME

Location: Dubai UAE
Found this to be a very interesting discussion with two Oxford epidemiologists.

They say that the lockdown policies in the EU/UK haven't been based on epidemiological advice and were a sudden panic response to the sharp spike in deaths early on. By the time the makeshift COVID hospitals in the UK were all set up, the ICU cases were already declining and the country lost sight of looking after the old and preparing hospitals to manage the spread of infection. In the end the makeshift COVID hospitals were never needed.

Half of the infections in the UK came after the lockdowns were imposed and nothing was done to prepare hospitals and aged care for the spread of the virus.

Interesting they say that existing models for epidemics are of limited value because every epidemic is different and there is no reason to think there will be a second wave, just because outbreaks like the Spanish Flu did, we are probably just seeing a resurgence of the first wave as countries come out of lockdowns and the virus resumes its spread.

They also say that the UK isn't on track for a particularly high number of excess deaths this year and there have been regular flu seasons comparable to this COVID outbreak and that COVID could just become another seasonal virus.

Interesting also there has never been a study to conclusively show that masks work...



https://youtu.be/Z3plSbCbkSA
"Mr. Lane"


The mask issue, they have got to be kidding?

+100 years of research surgery and diseases on how to prevent infections and cross contamination, the intensive research done following AIDS outbreak and now people are going, but are you sure?

Fun fact, look at how the death rate dropped quickly for new mothers having babies in hospitals after they worked out that the doctors should wash their hands in-between playing with cadavers and touching patients. This was highlighted because the women giving birth with midwives only had a significantly high survival rate than those with Dr's in attendance. Yet this research was rejected by the medical fraternity for sometime because Dr's didn't want to be told what to do.

Why is that we always have to learn the hard way? just put a mask on and be done with it.

The death rate from the regular flu is in an uncontrolled population, lower rate of infection and mortality. The flu doesn't normally fill hospitals. CV has more than proven it can fill hospitals and then some. The UK being one of the worse affected.

Wording should read, half the infections were diagnosed after the lock down had occurred as the lock down clearly limits the spread of the virus, but there is a lag between implementing a lock down and seeing diagnosis in decline.

Model's from previous outbreaks provide an insight in what this one will likely be. Each is however different due to the differences in the virus, local culture, economy, health system, govt ability to act, funding etc.

The Spanish flu is still a key bench mark because it provided alot of data for very different circumstances and this includes what happens to a virus over time, ie it normally gets less fatal through a combination of the changes in the virus as it mutates from surviving victims to other surviving victims PLUS improvements in treat strategies, which is what we are likely seeing now.
  Mr. Lane Chief Commissioner

Found this to be a very interesting discussion with two Oxford epidemiologists.

They say that the lockdown policies in the EU/UK haven't been based on epidemiological advice and were a sudden panic response to the sharp spike in deaths early on. By the time the makeshift COVID hospitals in the UK were all set up, the ICU cases were already declining and the country lost sight of looking after the old and preparing hospitals to manage the spread of infection. In the end the makeshift COVID hospitals were never needed.

Half of the infections in the UK came after the lockdowns were imposed and nothing was done to prepare hospitals and aged care for the spread of the virus.

Interesting they say that existing models for epidemics are of limited value because every epidemic is different and there is no reason to think there will be a second wave, just because outbreaks like the Spanish Flu did, we are probably just seeing a resurgence of the first wave as countries come out of lockdowns and the virus resumes its spread.

They also say that the UK isn't on track for a particularly high number of excess deaths this year and there have been regular flu seasons comparable to this COVID outbreak and that COVID could just become another seasonal virus.

Interesting also there has never been a study to conclusively show that masks work...



https://youtu.be/Z3plSbCbkSA


The mask issue, they have got to be kidding?

+100 years of research surgery and diseases on how to prevent infections and cross contamination, the intensive research done following AIDS outbreak and now people are going, but are you sure?

Fun fact, look at how the death rate dropped quickly for new mothers having babies in hospitals after they worked out that the doctors should wash their hands in-between playing with cadavers and touching patients. This was highlighted because the women giving birth with midwives only had a significantly high survival rate than those with Dr's in attendance. Yet this research was rejected by the medical fraternity for sometime because Dr's didn't want to be told what to do.

Why is that we always have to learn the hard way? just put a mask on and be done with it.

The death rate from the regular flu is in an uncontrolled population, lower rate of infection and mortality. The flu doesn't normally fill hospitals. CV has more than proven it can fill hospitals and then some. The UK being one of the worse affected.

Wording should read, half the infections were diagnosed after the lock down had occurred as the lock down clearly limits the spread of the virus, but there is a lag between implementing a lock down and seeing diagnosis in decline.

Model's from previous outbreaks provide an insight in what this one will likely be. Each is however different due to the differences in the virus, local culture, economy, health system, govt ability to act, funding etc.

The Spanish flu is still a key bench mark because it provided alot of data for very different circumstances and this includes what happens to a virus over time, ie it normally gets less fatal through a combination of the changes in the virus as it mutates from surviving victims to other surviving victims PLUS improvements in treat strategies, which is what we are likely seeing now.
RTT_Rules
Maybe listen to what the experts in the video have to say. They are not talking about masks during surgery, not talking about AIDS and they aren't saying don't wash your hands. They are not even saying don't wear masks, only that randomized trials have never proven efficacy in pandemics.

They are not saying not to wear them.

Regarding the flu, watch the video. They talk specifically about how the pattern for COVID is that it quickly filled hospitals for an 8 week window, then dropped right back, regardless of restrictions. There are some countries that went full curfew and were hit hard, others that did very little and got through fine. What was interesting is that there seems to be a pattern that countries that had a mild flu season last year did worse with COVID this year, suggesting there was a vulnerable population ready to go when COVID struck. Most interesting is how much deaths can vary from flu season to flu season. Some regular flu seasons cause as many deaths as COVID has, just not as quickly.

Regarding models...it seems they are probably right. COVID hasn't turned out to be anywhere near as deadly as the models predicted. In fact the predictions from back in Jan-Feb are starting to look pretty silly. Given that these guys basically specialize in pandemics and politicians don't...I know who I would be paying more attention to.

Regarding the Spanish Flu, they did mention this: COVID could be a faster moving less deadly virus that is already trending toward being less deadly. Like the guys say: you need to look at the real time evidence, not some olds models: COVID is roaring back in the EU, but the deaths are not following. Why?

It certainly adds more weight to the body of opinion, growing daily, that these lockdowns have been overkill and in hindsight were probably not the way to deal with this.
  doyle Assistant Commissioner

It certainly adds more weight to the body of opinion, growing daily, that these lockdowns have been overkill and in hindsight were probably not the way to deal with this."  Mr Lane

Are yo sugestin dat the Sweedish mod el is a one siz e fits all or someting elce lik ly taylord to each sit u aishun cuntree
cause I'm a been un shore as dis ting da vyrus is chaingin daylee an now im a here ring from da age new s pap er dis mornin dat re infecton has bean cinentificly proov but tooo difernt sauceez, me feelin chaingin me mine offen. How duz we life wit dis ting
questeion iz what do covid norm be lookin lik ee

Soz 4 badly punchuashun
  lsrailfan Chief Commissioner

Location: Somewhere you're not
Lockdowns have been a vital tool in fighting Covid-19, without the lockdowns in place around the world, there would have been way more deaths than there are currently, look at Brazil, they never went into lockdowns and so far over 115,000 dead, maybe way more than that, there is still heaps to play out with this virus, maybe at least 2-3 more year's, I think when it is all said and done, I think we may find that lockdowns were the best option.
  doyle Assistant Commissioner

Israilfan

I do agree, although lockdown is seemingly effective and I'm thankful for it, but lockdown fatigue is definitely creeping in my kids are trying to come around to visit and yes infections and deaths in my opinion are grossly under estimated
  lsrailfan Chief Commissioner

Location: Somewhere you're not
Israilfan

I do agree, although lockdown is seemingly effective and I'm thankful for it, but lockdown fatigue is definitely creeping in my kids are trying to come around to visit and yes infections and deaths in my opinion are grossly under estimated

doyle
Of course they are, look at China, it has been stuck on 4,634 deaths for 3 months now.. Ah I don't think so M.R XI Jinping el supremo...Laughing
  RTT_Rules Oliver Bullied, CME

Location: Dubai UAE
Maybe listen to what the experts in the video have to say. They are not talking about masks during surgery, not talking about AIDS and they aren't saying don't wash your hands. They are not even saying don't wear masks, only that randomized trials have never proven efficacy in pandemics.

They are not saying not to wear them.

Regarding the flu, watch the video. They talk specifically about how the pattern for COVID is that it quickly filled hospitals for an 8 week window, then dropped right back, regardless of restrictions. There are some countries that went full curfew and were hit hard, others that did very little and got through fine. What was interesting is that there seems to be a pattern that countries that had a mild flu season last year did worse with COVID this year, suggesting there was a vulnerable population ready to go when COVID struck. Most interesting is how much deaths can vary from flu season to flu season. Some regular flu seasons cause as many deaths as COVID has, just not as quickly.

Regarding models...it seems they are probably right. COVID hasn't turned out to be anywhere near as deadly as the models predicted. In fact the predictions from back in Jan-Feb are starting to look pretty silly. Given that these guys basically specialize in pandemics and politicians don't...I know who I would be paying more attention to.

Regarding the Spanish Flu, they did mention this: COVID could be a faster moving less deadly virus that is already trending toward being less deadly. Like the guys say: you need to look at the real time evidence, not some olds models: COVID is roaring back in the EU, but the deaths are not following. Why?

It certainly adds more weight to the body of opinion, growing daily, that these lockdowns have been overkill and in hindsight were probably not the way to deal with this.
Mr. Lane
The point was masks in surgery are known way to eliminate the surgical staff from infecting the open wound on the patient through spray in their breathing and talking. There are numerous videos showing how the masks capture or minimise the emission of droplets. The same happens to apply to colds and flu which the Asian's have been doing for decades including past outbreaks of viruses. The almost zero deaths from the flu and very low rate of people even getting a cold this year more than a validates masks validity, yes other factors come into play and these all work together.

Culture and other local conditions played a major part in our some countries were affected more than others. For example the kissy kissy Italian's, French and Spaniards with their older populations in the hard hit areas were more likely to transmit the disease than younger Sweden or Australia where we rarely even shake hands compared to other cultures. Also Australia and Sweden are more likely to live in an stand alone house than the Latin European's, we shop once a week, not daily, we drive our own cars more than PT.....

The UK's poor outcome of the CV, even by US standards is believed to be due to the colder/wet climate with people living in more indoors, high use of PT etc.

The hospitals filling quickly was why the govts responded with lock downs. So within a few weeks of the social distancing rules, masks and limited freedom of movement you will of course get a reduction. The stats of the early deaths highlighted who was most at risk and these people from then on took greater precautions.  

The typical seasonal flu kills 0.1 to 1% of its victims, CV-19 is 3.4% globally, but as high as 25% in some cultures/communities.
(Google)https://www.livescience.com/new-coronavirus-compare-with-flu.html

The Ro of CV-19 is now around 5.7, which requires herd immunity of 82% to keep it under control
The Ro of the Spanish flu is estimated to be 2.8 (max)
The Ro of the H1Ni1 (Swine flu) was less than 2 with more effective existing medicine.
https://www.healthline.com/health/r-nought-reproduction-number#covid-19-r-0
https://www.healthline.com/health/r-nought-reproduction-number#meaning


The deaths are not following in EU for a number of reasons stating in govt press releases, there is no why?
- CV-19 is spreading at a slower rate than below (flattening the curve)
- Effective treatment of CV-19 is improving, alot from what I understand
- Hospitals are not overun with something they don't know how to treat
- People are seeking help sooner
- The virus is expected to get weaker with time. For example H1N1 is now very common in the community, just very weak compared to its original outbreak.

The models used back in Jan/Feb are likely worst case and with no actions or minimal.

I would expect over the coming months there will be less and less restrictions as a combination of factors even without a vaccine, including better awareness (no kissy kissy), ongoing sterilization efforts ie more regular cleaning, improving medical response strategies and treatments and yes progressive weakening of the virus.
  lsrailfan Chief Commissioner

Location: Somewhere you're not
Maybe listen to what the experts in the video have to say. They are not talking about masks during surgery, not talking about AIDS and they aren't saying don't wash your hands. They are not even saying don't wear masks, only that randomized trials have never proven efficacy in pandemics.

They are not saying not to wear them.

Regarding the flu, watch the video. They talk specifically about how the pattern for COVID is that it quickly filled hospitals for an 8 week window, then dropped right back, regardless of restrictions. There are some countries that went full curfew and were hit hard, others that did very little and got through fine. What was interesting is that there seems to be a pattern that countries that had a mild flu season last year did worse with COVID this year, suggesting there was a vulnerable population ready to go when COVID struck. Most interesting is how much deaths can vary from flu season to flu season. Some regular flu seasons cause as many deaths as COVID has, just not as quickly.

Regarding models...it seems they are probably right. COVID hasn't turned out to be anywhere near as deadly as the models predicted. In fact the predictions from back in Jan-Feb are starting to look pretty silly. Given that these guys basically specialize in pandemics and politicians don't...I know who I would be paying more attention to.

Regarding the Spanish Flu, they did mention this: COVID could be a faster moving less deadly virus that is already trending toward being less deadly. Like the guys say: you need to look at the real time evidence, not some olds models: COVID is roaring back in the EU, but the deaths are not following. Why?

It certainly adds more weight to the body of opinion, growing daily, that these lockdowns have been overkill and in hindsight were probably not the way to deal with this.
The point was masks in surgery are known way to eliminate the surgical staff from infecting the open wound on the patient through spray in their breathing and talking. There are numerous videos showing how the masks capture or minimise the emission of droplets. The same happens to apply to colds and flu which the Asian's have been doing for decades including past outbreaks of viruses. The almost zero deaths from the flu and very low rate of people even getting a cold this year more than a validates masks validity, yes other factors come into play and these all work together.

Culture and other local conditions played a major part in our some countries were affected more than others. For example the kissy kissy Italian's, French and Spaniards with their older populations in the hard hit areas were more likely to transmit the disease than younger Sweden or Australia where we rarely even shake hands compared to other cultures. Also Australia and Sweden are more likely to live in an stand alone house than the Latin European's, we shop once a week, not daily, we drive our own cars more than PT.....

The UK's poor outcome of the CV, even by US standards is believed to be due to the colder/wet climate with people living in more indoors, high use of PT etc.

The hospitals filling quickly was why the govts responded with lock downs. So within a few weeks of the social distancing rules, masks and limited freedom of movement you will of course get a reduction. The stats of the early deaths highlighted who was most at risk and these people from then on took greater precautions.  

The typical seasonal flu kills 0.1 to 1% of its victims, CV-19 is 3.4% globally, but as high as 25% in some cultures/communities.
(Google)https://www.livescience.com/new-coronavirus-compare-with-flu.html

The Ro of CV-19 is now around 5.7, which requires herd immunity of 82% to keep it under control
The Ro of the Spanish flu is estimated to be 2.8 (max)
The Ro of the H1Ni1 (Swine flu) was less than 2 with more effective existing medicine.
https://www.healthline.com/health/r-nought-reproduction-number#covid-19-r-0
https://www.healthline.com/health/r-nought-reproduction-number#meaning


The deaths are not following in EU for a number of reasons stating in govt press releases, there is no why?
- CV-19 is spreading at a slower rate than below (flattening the curve)
- Effective treatment of CV-19 is improving, alot from what I understand
- Hospitals are not overun with something they don't know how to treat
- People are seeking help sooner
- The virus is expected to get weaker with time. For example H1N1 is now very common in the community, just very weak compared to its original outbreak.

The models used back in Jan/Feb are likely worst case and with no actions or minimal.

I would expect over the coming months there will be less and less restrictions as a combination of factors even without a vaccine, including better awareness (no kissy kissy), ongoing sterilization efforts ie more regular cleaning, improving medical response strategies and treatments and yes progressive weakening of the virus.
RTT_Rules
I do think the Covid-19 Virus will gradually weaken out, but it will take a while to do this, remember we are still in the early stages of this (well for a new virus anyway), the most effective thing we will need to have is a vaccine when it arrives.
  RTT_Rules Oliver Bullied, CME

Location: Dubai UAE
I do think the Covid-19 Virus will gradually weaken out, but it will take a while to do this, remember we are still in the early stages of this (well for a new virus anyway), the most effective thing we will need to have is a vaccine when it arrives.
lsrailfan
Pretty much, I think too.

I did read though there is a concern the vaccine maybe over promoted as a cure. Issue being the benefit may not last as once the bug is out of the system the body stops making anti-bodies and they flush out with a month or so. No idea, but if it helps, then great for those most at risk.
  Graham4405 Minister for Railways

Location: Dalby Qld
I did read though there is a concern the vaccine maybe over promoted as a cure.
RTT_Rules
Hmm, a vaccine is a preventative measure, not a cure, as in the intent is to prevent a person from contracting a disease, not to be administered once you already have the disease to cure it!
  Aaron The Ghost of George Stephenson

Location: University of Adelaide SA
Maybe listen to what the experts in the video have to say ... that randomized trials have never proven efficacy in pandemics.
Mr. Lane
They’re probably right, you know why they’re probably right? What do we call a ‘randomised trial’ of a proven prophylactic in terms of respiration transmission/infection during a ‘pandemic’? You think that’s called good science? I think it’s called malpractice, at best, if not that, it’s called unethical.

I worked on the clinical trials of a fairly recent vaccine which is now relatively widely used and efficacy accepted. The trial was a proper randomised double blind and in the later stages of the trial it was seen that the vaccine was so effective that it became unethical to continue the trial, because the study was effectively supplying the 40% placebo group with an ineffectual medical treatment when it was known that the non placebo group contained 100% efficacy.

They are not saying not to wear them.
Mr. Lane
And THAT should tell you more than enough!

The body of evidence supporting masks being able to prevent transmission of respiration borne illness and disease OUTSIDE of a ‘pandemic’ is so great that we do not need evidence to be collected during the ‘pandemic’.
  Aaron The Ghost of George Stephenson

Location: University of Adelaide SA
I do think the Covid-19 Virus will gradually weaken out
lsrailfan
No. That is not what happens, viruses do not ‘weaken out’ - whatever that even means anyway.

it will take a while to do this
lsrailfan
If by ‘a while’ you mean ‘many generations’, even possibly ‘hundreds of years’ then yes, without vaccine, that is likely the time scale.


The virus won’t weaken though, humans will in time begin to build resistance. Think of our crisis in antibiotic efficacy, our antibiotics are not getting ‘weaker’ 500mg of penicillin today is the same as 500mg of penicillin 50 years ago. The ability of bacteria to cope with the drugs we are taking to eliminate those that infect us are however very different.
  Aaron The Ghost of George Stephenson

Location: University of Adelaide SA
Hmm, a vaccine is a preventative measure, not a cure, as in the intent is to prevent a person from contracting a disease, not to be administered once you already have the disease to cure it!
Graham4405
That’s cloudy, post exposure (PEP) vaccination as a curative treatment does exist, I think most famously in the case of rabies for example - if you ever have or see someone being administered immunoglobulin you’ll not forget it. It is also true for measles, Hepatitis B and many other diseases too.

Why? Giving your body a little (generally highly localised) dose of the inactivated bacteria/virus to build antigen against is beneficial to having your body fight off the ‘real thing’ to build antigen.
  RTT_Rules Oliver Bullied, CME

Location: Dubai UAE
I did read though there is a concern the vaccine maybe over promoted as a cure.
Hmm, a vaccine is a preventative measure, not a cure, as in the intent is to prevent a person from contracting a disease, not to be administered once you already have the disease to cure it!
Graham4405
"Cure", meaning cure for the whole situation.

On the challenges with the vaccine and why I'm reading it won't be a silver bullet is that normally a vaccine is substitute for getting a virus antibodies without the pain of getting the virus. So when you read some are getting it twice, https://edition.cnn.com/2020/08/25/world/coronavirus-newsletter-08-25-20-intl/index.html, it doesn't hold out alot of hope that the vaccine will be a silver bullet to return life to normal.
  wobert Chief Commissioner

Location: Half way between Propodolla and Kinimakatka
I do think the Covid-19 Virus will gradually weaken out
No. That is not what happens, viruses do not ‘weaken out’ - whatever that even means anyway.

it will take a while to do this
If by ‘a while’ you mean ‘many generations’, even possibly ‘hundreds of years’ then yes, without vaccine, that is likely the time scale.


The virus won’t weaken though, humans will in time begin to build resistance. Think of our crisis in antibiotic efficacy, our antibiotics are not getting ‘weaker’ 500mg of penicillin today is the same as 500mg of penicillin 50 years ago. The ability of bacteria to cope with the drugs we are taking to eliminate those that infect us are however very different.
Aaron
Now now, settle down, you'll upset the creationists.
  bevans Site Admin

Location: Melbourne, Australia
24 deaths today meaning the deaths are increasing and the infections decreasing?  We need to better protect the vulnerable in our community.
  Aaron The Ghost of George Stephenson

Location: University of Adelaide SA
24 deaths today meaning the deaths are increasing and the infections decreasing?  We need to better protect the vulnerable in our community.
bevans
Deaths must always lag infections. Peak death numbers will always come after peak infection numbers.
  Aaron The Ghost of George Stephenson

Location: University of Adelaide SA
I do think the Covid-19 Virus will gradually weaken out
No. That is not what happens, viruses do not ‘weaken out’ - whatever that even means anyway.

it will take a while to do this
If by ‘a while’ you mean ‘many generations’, even possibly ‘hundreds of years’ then yes, without vaccine, that is likely the time scale.


The virus won’t weaken though, humans will in time begin to build resistance. Think of our crisis in antibiotic efficacy, our antibiotics are not getting ‘weaker’ 500mg of penicillin today is the same as 500mg of penicillin 50 years ago. The ability of bacteria to cope with the drugs we are taking to eliminate those that infect us are however very different.
Now now, settle down, you'll upset the creationists.
wobert
Oh I deliberately do that on a regular basis.
  Valvegear Dr Beeching

Location: Norda Fittazroy
Oh I deliberately do that on a regular basis.
"Aaron"
Yep; it's a great sport. They're so dogmatic that it's amusing. Every day of their lives, they rely on the results of science for the way they live and facilities they have, yet they abandon science when it interferes with some crackpot belief system.

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