The corona virus COVID-19

 
  lsrailfan Chief Commissioner

Location: Somewhere you're not
The death toll from HIV was way bigger than the death toll from COVID in the last twelve months but most of those people were poor Africans so we don't bother talking about them. I blame the World Health Organisation for this over-reaction - hardly anyone is dying from COVID but they're shutting down the entire economy for it (in Victoria at least). What a load of rubbish.
To be fair, I don't think the WHO ever recommended lockdowns. If anything, I think Governments adopted lockdowns in an attempt to replicate the Chinese response in Wuhan.
Mr. Lane
This is the only article that I can find where the WHO was reported to have said that, in short, I believe the jury is still out on this one, at least according to this - https://bgr.com/2020/06/09/who-asymptomatic-spread-rare-coronavirus-lockdowns/

I just typed into Google "can asymptomatic people spread Coronavirus" and this what I found, this is a much more recent article than the one above, in short, bugger if I know - https://bgr.com/2020/08/31/coronavirus-asymptomatic-spread-risk-study-china/

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  kitchgp Chief Commissioner

What relevance does HIV (to AIDS) have to Australia? Even in its heyday we all knew how to avoid it (a form of lockdown) except for the unfortunate few, such as Arthur Ashe, who got it from blood transfusions.

https://www.abc.net.au/news/2016-07-10/the-ends-of-aids-as-a-public-health-issue-in-australia/7580852
  RTT_Rules Oliver Bullied, CME

Location: Dubai UAE
I stand by what I said - nobody is taking any notice of HIV but its actually killing more people than COVID.
"don_dunstan"


HIV deaths in Australia each year is less than 200, so CV-19 is currently more deadly and far more contagious and more difficult for others to avoid.
  doyle Assistant Commissioner

If all goes well with the extension and the numbers reduce then great, I don't feel that my rights are under attack  
Victoria can at least get to where NSW is now it's a win, the issue is others not doing the right thing and fear that people will give up and not care enough about the rest of us
it's all about me attitude newsflash it's not

Funny how people with co morbidities are not really getting this virus in bigger numbers why... probably because they have locked down and adhere to the common sense rules

how many people are on pensions carer, disability and aged care services
what a million or two
That would be a lot of people at risk it's not just those in aged care

what are the long term issues for the covid recoveries?

Health first
Mental health second
Economy third
and be rid of casual and part time work

It is what it is
  Gayspie Deputy Commissioner

Location: Adelaide, SA
I read an interesting opinion piece the other week in the Advertiser saying how state premiers are playing politics with border closures as elections are looming by keeping them unconstitutionally closed long after the public health risk is over, and state oppositions are no better because they are egging them on to score cheap campaign points, similar to how schoolkids egg on bullies to keep doing the wrong thing even though their behavior is clearly against the school rules. What do you think?
  KRviator Moderator

Location: Up the front
I read an interesting opinion piece the other week in the Advertiser saying how state premiers are playing politics with border closures as elections are looming by keeping them unconstitutionally closed long after the public health risk is over, and state oppositions are no better because they are egging them on to score cheap campaign points, similar to how schoolkids egg on bullies to keep doing the wrong thing even though their behavior is clearly against the school rules. What do you think?
Gayspie
I think Clive Palmer - and a rumoured other challenger to the border closures - have a better-than-even chance of winning on Constitutional grounds. Particularly as his Qld legal 'challange' which wasn't really a challange, just remitted from the High Court to determine the health grounds of the Border closures, found in WA's case alternative measures are reasonably practical! though they are not 'as effective'
  justapassenger Minister for Railways

I read an interesting opinion piece the other week in the Advertiser saying how state premiers are playing politics with border closures as elections are looming by keeping them unconstitutionally closed long after the public health risk is over, and state oppositions are no better because they are egging them on to score cheap campaign points, similar to how schoolkids egg on bullies to keep doing the wrong thing even though their behavior is clearly against the school rules. What do you think?
Gayspie
Nope. Keeping borders closed to personal travel (or incoming travellers quarantined and tested) is entirely warranted so long as community transmission is up and running in other states.

Significant efforts have been made to keep interstate trade flowing, so there is nothing unconstitutional going on.
  apw5910 Deputy Commissioner

Location: Location: Location.
I read an interesting opinion piece the other week in the Advertiser saying how state premiers are playing politics with border closures as elections are looming by keeping them unconstitutionally closed long after the public health risk is over, and state oppositions are no better because they are egging them on to score cheap campaign points, similar to how schoolkids egg on bullies to keep doing the wrong thing even though their behavior is clearly against the school rules. What do you think?
Gayspie
Ah yes, good old Section 92, the same bit that destroyed the railways in Hughes & Vale vs NSW.
  Carnot Minister for Railways

New cases down to 41 in Vic today - good news.  Seriously, if Dan doesn't re-adjust his "roadmap" soon, there will be attempts of a mass escape from "East Berlin" (aka Melbourne) in the coming weeks.
  Mr. Lane Chief Commissioner

I work in the university sector with people who are involved in medical data analysis and modelling and I can tell you from this mornings Zoom meeting there is very little support for the plan announced on Sunday bordering on open hostility.

As epidemiologists have said all along, you have to use your data and can't just rely on models based on previous virus outbreaks, because every virus essentially needs a new model.

The plan we have here is essentially lockdown almost everything until all sectors, everywhere, are clear of the virus.
  RTT_Rules Oliver Bullied, CME

Location: Dubai UAE
I read an interesting opinion piece the other week in the Advertiser saying how state premiers are playing politics with border closures as elections are looming by keeping them unconstitutionally closed long after the public health risk is over, and state oppositions are no better because they are egging them on to score cheap campaign points, similar to how schoolkids egg on bullies to keep doing the wrong thing even though their behavior is clearly against the school rules. What do you think?
Nope. Keeping borders closed to personal travel (or incoming travellers quarantined and tested) is entirely warranted so long as community transmission is up and running in other states.

Significant efforts have been made to keep interstate trade flowing, so there is nothing unconstitutional going on.
justapassenger
Ring fence the problem areas, not an arbitrary state border.
  lsrailfan Chief Commissioner

Location: Somewhere you're not
I work in the university sector with people who are involved in medical data analysis and modelling and I can tell you from this mornings Zoom meeting there is very little support for the plan announced on Sunday bordering on open hostility.

As epidemiologists have said all along, you have to use your data and can't just rely on models based on previous virus outbreaks, because every virus essentially needs a new model.

The plan we have here is essentially lockdown almost everything until all sectors, everywhere, are clear of the virus.
Mr. Lane
Even the PM in his presser this morning is getting a little bit tetchy on Dan Andrew's "roadmap" , he has said the following,

The plan that was outlined [in Victoria] yesterday, I hope, is a worst-case scenario. I see it as a starting point in terms of how this issue will be managed in the weeks and months ahead in Victoria. We will continue to carefully review this plan. We're yet still to receive the detailed modelling. We've seen the high-level modelling and the other assumptions that have gone into the plan.

"And that is what I know will be interrogated. Not just by the Commonwealth government, but many in the community will look at that, and the decisions that have been drawn from that modelling have very profound effects for people living in Victoria. And so it's right, and I'm sure the Victorian government would welcome that interrogation of that.

"As I said, I hope it's a starting point. I hope we can move more quickly than that. Obviously the legal authority for all of these matters, of course, rests with the Victorian government. It's not for the Commonwealth government - we do not have that authority to step in and tell the Victorian government they have to follow another plan. That is not how Australia's federation works"


That to me is political talk for come on, hurry up, we shouldn't need to wait this long.
  nswtrains Chief Commissioner

I just am not comfortable with the idea that a Government can confine me to my house because it believes it knows more about my safety and needs than I do...but hey thats another discussion.
The government is advised by people who know more about epidemics than you and I do, and please, forget the idea that its your safety and needs that are of concern. Today, you don't have Covid-19; tomorrow you go out into a group of people and hey presto!  . . . now you do have it. Spreading is the concern.
Valvegear
I notice one contributor has disagreed with Valvegear's above comment. Could that person please explain why they disagree and what expertise they have in regard epidemiology to be able to disagree with VG's very sensible comment? I thought so, another dingbat crazy.
  Mr. Lane Chief Commissioner

I just am not comfortable with the idea that a Government can confine me to my house because it believes it knows more about my safety and needs than I do...but hey thats another discussion.
The government is advised by people who know more about epidemics than you and I do, and please, forget the idea that its your safety and needs that are of concern. Today, you don't have Covid-19; tomorrow you go out into a group of people and hey presto!  . . . now you do have it. Spreading is the concern.
I notice one contributor has disagreed with Valvegear's above comment. Could that person please explain why they disagree and what expertise they have in regard epidemiology to be able to disagree with VG's very sensible comment? I thought so, another dingbat crazy.
nswtrains
I can explain again if you like...

There is not uniform agreement between medical experts and epidemiologists in how to best manage COVID-19 and we are indeed now seeing (in The Age and on the ABC) increasing criticism of the state Governments plan from...medical experts and epidemiologists.

It might surprise you but there are hundreds of jurisdictions out in the world that are dealing with this in slightly different to radically different ways. Some will strike a better balance than others. Probably none will be perfect.

Just because the Victorian governments advisors advise a certain course of action, it doesn't mean that it is correct or certainly above scrutiny. Given the governments recent track record, I find it bizarre that so many people are willing to just accept that the government knows best all the time.

History is full of examples of governments being poorly advised, but then said governments sticking relentlessly to the original flawed advice. In my experience, governments are actually wrong most of the time.

Valvegear seems like a sensible and reasonable fellow, but I will do my own research with an open mind and draw my own conclusions thanks. Being a skeptic has served me very well in life.
  Mr. Lane Chief Commissioner

BTW the experts in Spring Street only signed a contract last week with IBM to provide health tracking and contact tracing software to the DHHS.

Currently the DHHS is writing things down on paper, whiteboards and post-it notes and using some Excel spreadsheets.
  Valvegear Dr Beeching

Location: Norda Fittazroy
There is not uniform agreement between medical experts and epidemiologists in how to best manage COVID-19 and we are indeed now seeing (in The Age and on the ABC) increasing criticism of the state Governments plan from...medical experts and epidemiologists.
Mr. Lane
There is very rarely agreement between specialists in many fields  ( the law being the prime example). The government has to follow somebody's path, because it can't change every time a differing opinion appears.

It might surprise you but there are hundreds of jurisdictions out in the world that are dealing with this in slightly different to radically different ways. Some will strike a better balance than others. Probably none will be perfect.
Mr. Lane
See above.

Just because the Victorian governments advisors advise a certain course of action, it doesn't mean that it is correct or certainly above scrutiny. Given the governments recent track record, I find it bizarre that so many people are willing to just accept that the government knows best all the time.
Mr. Lane
I don't necessarily accept that the government knows best. However, given that we have a crisis, I am accepting the directions of the elected government in its attempt to stop this event. I certainly do not like it; it's driving me clean round the twist, but I'm not protesting (a) because I have a responsibility to obey lawful directions and (b) because it would be a waste of time and effort ( and possibly $sssss) and (c) because so many protesters are just plain stupid with all manner of absurd theories.

History is full of examples of governments being poorly advised, but then said governments sticking relentlessly to the original flawed advice. In my experience, governments are actually wrong most of the time.
Mr. Lane
Again; no great argument from me; governments will never get it all right. The other reason I don't protest about Andrews is because the alternative is too horrible to consider. Michael O'Brien (aided and abetted by Tim Smith and David Davis) is one of the best vote catchers for the ALP. He spends 100% of his time bitching and sniping. I have not heard one sensible, constructive comment from him, nor any offer at all to try and help.  He sought leave to appear at the current enquiry, and this was quite correctly refused. He was not an active witness who could testify to what he had seen, and obviously wanted to score some political points. Certainly, Andrews is not perfect, and mistakes have been made, but he's in the chair and there's no point in getting ulcers by worrying about him. The Libs desperately need somebody good, sensible and logical.

Valvegear seems like a sensible and reasonable fellow, but I will do my own research with an open mind and draw my own conclusions thanks. Being a skeptic has served me very well in life.
Mr. Lane
Thank you. I appreciate the debate with you. I agree with you on drawing one's own conclusions, and have been a Skeptic for many years. Drawing conclusions is one thing, but I'm not going to work myself up into a lather over things I can't do anything about.
  justapassenger Minister for Railways

I read an interesting opinion piece the other week in the Advertiser saying how state premiers are playing politics with border closures as elections are looming by keeping them unconstitutionally closed long after the public health risk is over, and state oppositions are no better because they are egging them on to score cheap campaign points, similar to how schoolkids egg on bullies to keep doing the wrong thing even though their behavior is clearly against the school rules. What do you think?
Nope. Keeping borders closed to personal travel (or incoming travellers quarantined and tested) is entirely warranted so long as community transmission is up and running in other states.

Significant efforts have been made to keep interstate trade flowing, so there is nothing unconstitutional going on.
Ring fence the problem areas, not an arbitrary state border.
RTT_Rules
If the Victorian government develops the competency to enforce internal borders and permits external auditing of their systems, I would have no problem with SA opening up to safe parts of Victoria which have gone a month without community transmission.
  BrentonGolding Chief Commissioner

Location: Maldon Junction
I just am not comfortable with the idea that a Government can confine me to my house because it believes it knows more about my safety and needs than I do...but hey thats another discussion.
The government is advised by people who know more about epidemics than you and I do, and please, forget the idea that its your safety and needs that are of concern. Today, you don't have Covid-19; tomorrow you go out into a group of people and hey presto!  . . . now you do have it. Spreading is the concern.
I notice one contributor has disagreed with Valvegear's above comment. Could that person please explain why they disagree and what expertise they have in regard epidemiology to be able to disagree with VG's very sensible comment? I thought so, another dingbat crazy.
nswtrains
So you want to curtail free speech while reserving your right to insult fellow RP users? Nice work fella!
  BrentonGolding Chief Commissioner

Location: Maldon Junction
BTW the experts in Spring Street only signed a contract last week with IBM to provide health tracking and contact tracing software to the DHHS.

Currently the DHHS is writing things down on paper, whiteboards and post-it notes and using some Excel spreadsheets.
Mr. Lane
One of the things that has bothered me for a while is the way that the Victorian Covid figures are continuously distorted by re-classifications.

Take today as an example - the headline figure reported in the media is 41 but "The overall total has increased by 36 due to five cases being reclassified" (source dhss media release https://www.dhhs.vic.gov.au/coronavirus-update-victoria-07-september-2020

I check the media release each day and I have seen re-classification rates approaching 20% of the headline figure.

Recently I read that some of these are second positive tests being counted and then removed from the total. Does this happen in other states / countries? I don't know.

But if your information above is true (and i have no reason to doubt it) then that might explain why this keeps happening.

  lsrailfan Chief Commissioner

Location: Somewhere you're not
BTW the experts in Spring Street only signed a contract last week with IBM to provide health tracking and contact tracing software to the DHHS.

Currently the DHHS is writing things down on paper, whiteboards and post-it notes and using some Excel spreadsheets.
One of the things that has bothered me for a while is the way that the Victorian Covid figures are continuously distorted by re-classifications.

Take today as an example - the headline figure reported in the media is 41 but "The overall total has increased by 36 due to five cases being reclassified" (source dhss media release https://www.dhhs.vic.gov.au/coronavirus-update-victoria-07-september-2020

I check the media release each day and I have seen re-classification rates approaching 20% of the headline figure.

Recently I read that some of these are second positive tests being counted and then removed from the total. Does this happen in other states / countries? I don't know.

But if your information above is true (and i have no reason to doubt it) then that might explain why this keeps happening.
BrentonGolding
Yeah apparently that is the case in Victoria, I even heard it tonight on a radio show that I listen to, that is the only main reason why I can think of that the Andrew's Govt has released a really long roadmap out of this, they simply must not  be able to have faith in the current contact tracing team, which is really a shame when you think about it... also, we up here in NSW have several LGA Health areas as well, I believe that makes the system a lot easier to deal with, I'm unsure if Victoria has LGA'S of any kind....

In regards to reclassifications, even the John Hopkins website has done this on a couple of times, earlier on today they had deaths at 887,000 odd, I check later tonight and the deaths stand at now 893,697, so I only deduce that the same thing occurring, they have investigated the deaths, and found Covid to be the cause. either that, or smaller countries are delayed at getting the figures in...
  DirtyBallast Chief Commissioner

Location: I was here first. You're only visiting.
Discussion about Morrison sticking the boots into Andrews today.

Why has this question not been asked: "Prime Minister, do you agree that if Victoria suffers a third wave, the cost to the national economy will be far greater than what is currently projected as a result of the slow easing of restrictions mapped out now?"

Why has this question not been asked: Prime Minister, are you now acknowledging that you have failed to provide enough assistance to Victoria for contact tracing?" and" Can you guarantee that if 700 new daily cases were reported in New South Wales, the contact tracing team there would remain on top of the situation?"

Why has this question not been asked: "Prime Minister, in reference to your claim that under Victorian guidelines Sydney would now be under curfew, are you also claiming that there is a similar rate of community transmission in both jurisdictions?"

Why has this question not been asked: "Prime Minister, you stated previously that "We are all Melburnians now, we are all Victorians because we are all Australians." Do you now retract that statement?"
  lsrailfan Chief Commissioner

Location: Somewhere you're not
Discussion about Morrison sticking the boots into Andrews today.

Why has this question not been asked: "Prime Minister, do you agree that if Victoria suffers a third wave, the cost to the national economy will be far greater than what is currently projected as a result of the slow easing of restrictions mapped out now?"

Why has this question not been asked: Prime Minister, are you now acknowledging that you have failed to provide enough assistance to Victoria for contact tracing?" and" Can you guarantee that if 700 new daily cases were reported in New South Wales, the contact tracing team there would remain on top of the situation?"

Why has this question not been asked: "Prime Minister, in reference to your claim that under Victorian guidelines Sydney would now be under curfew, are you also claiming that there is a similar rate of community transmission in both jurisdictions?"

Why has this question not been asked: "Prime Minister, you stated previously that "We are all Melburnians now, we are all Victorians because we are all Australians." Do you now retract that statement?"
DirtyBallast
Question 3, - we are unlikely to ever get to that situation up here, we have dodged several bullets so far in relation to big outbreaks, even some of the small-medium outbreaks were bought under control in quick succession,  when you had small-medium outbreaks down there, they kept snowballing.  (famous last words I know) Embarassed
  kitchgp Chief Commissioner

Over 500 of Victoria’s 670 odd deaths have been in aged care. Time to bring the Australian Government into the discussion.

Anyway, things might further improve with the change of seasons and consequential warmer weather. (Open a few windows in those homes for one.)
  Donald Chief Commissioner

Location: Donald. Duck country.
Answer to question 2 above.

Andrews has refused to accept help for contact tracing.   It has been handled perfectly in Victoria.
  bevans Site Admin

Location: Melbourne, Australia
Today's announcement 55 new cases.

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