The corona virus COVID-19

 
  RTT_Rules Oliver Bullied, CME

Location: Dubai UAE
i'd say the good doctor is talking out his asre...The fatality rate is nowhere near 1.3% that is about 20x higher than the actual rate, for the top 20 countries.

Data for the top 20 countries ranked by case number. Forumla is "Deaths / Population * 100"
USA - 0.059%
India - 0.006%
Brazil - 0.061%
Russia - 0.013%
Peru - 0.092%
Colombia - 0.044%
Mexico - 0.054%
South Africa - 0.026%
Spain - 0.064%
Argentina - 0.024%
Chile - 0.062%
Iran - 0.027%
UK - 0.061%
France - 0.047%
Bangladesh - 0.003%
Saudi Arabia - 0.012%
Pakistan - 0.003%
Turkey - 0.008%
Italy - 0.059%
Iraq - 0.019%

AVERAGE: 0.0372

And Sweden (at #26) comes in at 0.058 %

Now Data from top 20 countries ranked by deaths, same forumla:
USA - 0.059
Brazil - 0.061
India - 0.006
Mexico - 0.054
UK - 0.061
Italy - 0.059
France - 0.047
Peru - 0.092
Spain - 0.064
Iran - 0.027
Colombia - 0.044
Russia - 0.013
South Africa - 0.026
Chile - 0.062
Argentina - 0.024
Ecuador - 0.061
Belgium - 0.085
Germany - 0.011
Canada - 0.024
Indonesia - 0.003

AVERAGE : 0.04415
KRviator
These numbers are both incorrect and completely misleading as it total deaths / total population, therefore countries that have done well minimizing infections look very good, yet at the same time you are saying "let it rip".


Globally the death rate is 4% of infected and doesn't include those with longterm health side effects such as lung damage.

The UK doesn't publish their detailed data in Worldometer, but France's death rate is 26%, the USA 5%, India 2% and just getting started. Good old Sweden is around 6-7%.

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  KRviator Moderator

Location: Up the front
Death as a percentage of population? How is that meaningful, you don't know how many will be infected.
Madjikthise
True, increasing infection in each country will increase those percentages, but when used as acomparison after 6 months of this pandemic being declared they are a useful indicator, particularly as they encompass a variety of different countries, with different heath systems, political beliefs, etc. They aren't cherry-picked "western countries" etc.

Not everyone followed the advices though.
route14
Nope that's true! Look at Sweden, #26 in terms of total deaths, and now they're getting one, maybe two deaths a day, which comes out at 0.058%

These numbers are both incorrect and completely misleading as it total deaths / total population, therefore countries that have done well minimizing infections look very good, yet at the same time you are saying "let it rip".
Rtt Rules
Which is why I used two different data sets to show the 'worst case scenarios', the first being the top 20 countries in terms of infections, the second being the top 20 countries in terms of deaths.

Granted you could use San Merino as a poor example, a tiny country with several deaths is going to skew the percentages, but to what end? They are intended to be used as a guide, to show different countries will tend to have a similar figure.

Sweden, which did, essentially, SFA except tell their citizens to use their noggin, scores 0.058%, and in a population size 40% of ours is getting 1-2 deaths per day now and it has trended downwards almost continuously since it peaked. From what i understand of their approach, there was no curfew, no internal border closures, no significant restrictions on gatherings indoors.
  lsrailfan Chief Commissioner

Location: Somewhere you're not
This could come back to bite Sweden on the backside, as it has done with other countries who we thought were "gold star" when it comes to fighting this disease, we don't know for sure how many of Sweden's citizens have obtained antibodies for the virus, last time I checked I think it was 15%, which isn't much, also, I'm not to sure how long antibodies last in people either.
  RTT_Rules Oliver Bullied, CME

Location: Dubai UAE
Death as a percentage of population? How is that meaningful, you don't know how many will be infected.
Madjikthise
True, increasing infection in each country will increase those percentages, but when used as acomparison after 6 months of this pandemic being declared they are a useful indicator, particularly as they encompass a variety of different countries, with different heath systems, political beliefs, etc. They aren't cherry-picked "western countries" etc.

Not everyone followed the advices though.
route14
Nope that's true! Look at Sweden, #26 in terms of total deaths, and now they're getting one, maybe two deaths a day, which comes out at 0.058%

These numbers are both incorrect and completely misleading as it total deaths / total population, therefore countries that have done well minimizing infections look very good, yet at the same time you are saying "let it rip".
Rtt Rules
Which is why I used two different data sets to show the 'worst case scenarios', the first being the top 20 countries in terms of infections, the second being the top 20 countries in terms of deaths.

Granted you could use San Merino as a poor example, a tiny country with several deaths is going to skew the percentages, but to what end? They are intended to be used as a guide, to show different countries will tend to have a similar figure.

Sweden, which did, essentially, SFA except tell their citizens to use their noggin, scores 0.058%, and in a population size 40% of ours is getting 1-2 deaths per day now and it has trended downwards almost continuously since it peaked. From what i understand of their approach, there was no curfew, no internal border closures, no significant restrictions on gatherings indoors.
"KRviator"


Ignoring the minor states of San Marino and Andorra, Sweeden is the 11th worst in deaths per 1m of the population at 578. The country;s above them include, Equador, Chile, Peru, Boliva and Brazil. Countries that are significantly poorer and with large native populations.

I'm sure the leaders of Sweden feel elated that their medical system response is being compared with developing nations of Latin America.

Other countries above Sweden include, USA, Spain, Italy and UK. All of which are only slightly worse off and likely due to the kissy kissy culture of Italy and Spain which helped spread it and older populations and others struggling with democracy and anti freedom push back. Also note Sweden has more people in detached houses than UK.

So yes, Sweden now has few deaths, well after killing off 600/1m of the population many at risk are now dead, for Australia this number is equivalent to about 15,000 people. So far we are around 800 (31/1M of population) and before the Victorian experiment it was 100. So, when discussing following Sweden you need to drag another 14,000 people out of their homes to be killed by executive order. Remember prior to the Victorian experiment that was 100 dead with no warning of the bug, established medical treatment procedures flattening of the curve, benefit of getting support from other states etc.

Why is Sweden death rate so low now? Its amazing what will happen when people are scared $hitless.

Sweden now has a new case infections of about 200/day with about 2-3 people per day dying. So the death rate is still 1-2% with systems in place to protect certain at risk groups. Again the Victorian experiment showed we failed with this as the retirement homes are a significant source of the dead.

As for the so called "herd immunity". The published target number required to make this work is 60 - 85% of the population (depending on the source of number), tests done in Spain show the number of people with Anti-bodies immediately after the peak was less than 5%. Note the anti-bodies are expected to have a life of less than 3 months.

Similar cultured Norway and Denmark are 50 and 100 deaths/million and note Denmark is far more concentrated population.

We need to reopen the economy, but I don't think the Sweden experiment is going to be worth culling another 14,000 of the population under a executive order, there has to be other ways.
  Graham4405 Minister for Railways

Location: Dalby Qld
people with Ant-bodies
RTT_Rules
Huh? I'd like to see that! Laughing
  RTT_Rules Oliver Bullied, CME

Location: Dubai UAE
people with Ant-bodies
RTT_Rules
Huh? I'd like to see that! Laughing
"Graham4405"


Thanks, fixed
  Mr. Lane Chief Commissioner

From a purely economic perspective, no, the lock-downs for the most part don't make sense other than perhaps for a 4-8 week period in some of the EU countries and some US states where there were 1000s of cases per day in multiple cities and it was out of control before there was any sort of warning or preparation.

The purpose of the lock-downs should only be to stop the health system from collapsing. If the March-April spike in the EU and US wasn't as bad as it was, I suspect no one today would even be thinking about lock-downs. The EU has already moved past this and is now adopting more granular local restrictions rather than trying to solve this with a sledgehammer. It is impossible for the EU or US to beat this with lock-downs...they would need to be in Stage 4 for 6+ months. Not going to happen.

It is clear that economies would still suffer without locking down, because some people would be making the decision to isolate anyway and many would still be working remotely but the effect wouldn't be so drastic.

A large reason why Sweden's economy has suffered is because they got isolated and shunned by their neighbors. I suspect that if the Scandinavian nations all took the Swedish approach, they would collectively be better off.

And I think right there is the reason why Victoria is going hard at this: other states wont open up to Victoria until Victoria gets to comparable levels of community transmission, so its actually the success of other states that is forcing Victoria to go for near-elimination.

If every other state had our level of transmission, we wouldn't be in Stage 4, because there wouldn't be a point. The lock-down here isn't about saving the health system, it is now about getting Victoria in-line with everyone else.

Then Australia and New Zealand will have to remain in isolation from the rest of the world for god knows how long.
  lsrailfan Chief Commissioner

Location: Somewhere you're not
Cases of Covid-19 are absolutely sky rocketing in India, with an astounding 97,000 cases reported yesterday, with an additional 1,201 deaths, this will be one place to watch I feel over the coming weeks, as the virus could take a horrendous toll on the country. - https://www.9news.com.au/world/asia-today-indias-cases-cross-46m-after-record-surge/4902a4d7-6626-47e8-8f8d-4aa7e702916c
  freightgate Minister for Railways

Location: Albury, New South Wales
OMG that is so serious. How are they going to get that under control ?
  freightgate Minister for Railways

Location: Albury, New South Wales
Watching the Victoria police are they becoming too heavy handed over this lockdown in Melbourne rather than taking a more empathic approach to people
Who are tired of lockdown.

The news showing police arresting people for walking out in the open.
  lsrailfan Chief Commissioner

Location: Somewhere you're not
Cases of Covid-19 are absolutely sky rocketing in India, with an astounding 97,000 cases reported yesterday, with an additional 1,201 deaths, this will be one place to watch I feel over the coming weeks, as the virus could take a horrendous toll on the country. - https://www.9news.com.au/world/asia-today-indias-cases-cross-46m-after-record-surge/4902a4d7-6626-47e8-8f8d-4aa7e702916c
lsrailfan
I think that the deaths could be way more than reported there, as there would be a lot of rural areas that simply do not have the facilities to cope.
  KRviator Moderator

Location: Up the front
So yes, Sweden now has few deaths, well after killing off 600/1m of the population many at risk are now dead, for Australia this number is equivalent to about 15,000 people. So far we are around 800 (31/1M of population) and before the Victorian experiment it was 100. So, when discussing following Sweden you need to drag another 14,000 people out of their homes to be killed by executive order.

We need to reopen the economy, but I don't think the Sweden experiment is going to be worth culling another 14,000 of the population under a executive order, there has to be other ways.
RTT_Rules
That's the entire concept of the statistical value of life. Is it worthwhile to do X if it is going to cost/save Y lives?

It has been that way for decades across almost every project you could imagine, from crossing upgrades to overpasses, ATP, right through to OHS legislation and even mandating wearing seatbelts in cars. I'm utterly stumped the politicians have abandoned it in favour of a government bailout - that still won't fix the problem and has cost more in the long run...
  RTT_Rules Oliver Bullied, CME

Location: Dubai UAE
OMG that is so serious. How are they going to get that under control ?
"freightgate"


They won't, it will run its course and leave a trail of deaths in its path. Lockdown in India is not viable, people will start to starve within days.
  RTT_Rules Oliver Bullied, CME

Location: Dubai UAE
Watching the Victoria police are they becoming too heavy handed over this lockdown in Melbourne rather than taking a more empathic approach to people
Who are tired of lockdown.

The news showing police arresting people for walking out in the open.
"freightgate"


The rules are black and white. You can go soft for small numbers but not large numbers, once you start softening, then when does it stop?
  lsrailfan Chief Commissioner

Location: Somewhere you're not
OMG that is so serious. How are they going to get that under control ?


They won't, it will run its course and leave a trail of deaths in its path. Lockdown in India is not viable, people will start to starve within days.
RTT_Rules
They already tried a big national lockdown, it obviously has done jack you know what, I think some regional areas over there are having lockdowns IIRC??, the virus will take a long time to "run it's course" over there, but sadly it will lead to 1,000,s of more deaths yes.
  RTT_Rules Oliver Bullied, CME

Location: Dubai UAE
So yes, Sweden now has few deaths, well after killing off 600/1m of the population many at risk are now dead, for Australia this number is equivalent to about 15,000 people. So far we are around 800 (31/1M of population) and before the Victorian experiment it was 100. So, when discussing following Sweden you need to drag another 14,000 people out of their homes to be killed by executive order.

We need to reopen the economy, but I don't think the Sweden experiment is going to be worth culling another 14,000 of the population under a executive order, there has to be other ways.
RTT_Rules
That's the entire concept of the statistical value of life. Is it worthwhile to do X if it is going to cost/save Y lives?

It has been that way for decades across almost every project you could imagine, from crossing upgrades to overpasses, ATP, right through to OHS legislation and even mandating wearing seatbelts in cars. I'm utterly stumped the politicians have abandoned it in favour of a government bailout - that still won't fix the problem and has cost more in the long run...
"KRviator"


Agree, everything is based on economic cost. What is 14,000 lives plus the cost of their health car until they die plus the many times more who will fill hospitals and ICU's at $1000's day per patient worth?
  KRviator Moderator

Location: Up the front
Agree, everything is based on economic cost. What is 14,000 lives plus the cost of their health car until they die plus the many times more who will fill hospitals and ICU's at $1000's day per patient worth?
The first answer is easy: 14,000 deaths is $68.6 Billion AUD. The thing is, though, that figure is based on 14,000 "average working Citizens" not the vast majority of COVID victims who are already retired and not contributing to the workforce or nations bottom line, but whose desperate need for protection has crippled the Federation and racked up a national debt that defies comprehension.

Given we've spent probably twice that already with JobKeeper/Seeker and other support payments, the economic cost v benefit doesn't stack up no matter how you move the microscope. Economically, we would have been better to do nothing at all except the initial lock-down in order to give the health system time to prepare.

And we wouldn't be in the situation we are now where people are not being allowed to go to their child's funeral, or see their father before he dies, or losing an unborn baby because the medical staff thought the border restrictions prohibited transport across state lines. For those of us old enough to remember that TV show Dinosaurs, I reckon they might have been on to something with Hurling Day....Confused
  lsrailfan Chief Commissioner

Location: Somewhere you're not
I have a question, just say if we had done nothing and let this virus run it's course out here, would we be in a worse economic situation than we currently are?, I don't pretend to know the answer one way or the other, but the commentary over that question has been very very divided indeed!!
  route14 Chief Commissioner

Economy means nothing if you are dead.
  Mr. Lane Chief Commissioner

I have a question, just say if we had done nothing and let this virus run it's course out here, would we be in a worse economic situation than we currently are?, I don't pretend to know the answer one way or the other, but the commentary over that question has been very very divided indeed!!
lsrailfan

I am certain we would be better off, but still would have tipped into recession, which was already on the cards pre-COVID. Even without restrictions and lock downs, a closed international border would probably still be a thing, so no tourists and international students would have definitely forced the economy into recession.

Mind you some countries didn't even bother closing their borders at the very height of the pandemic.

Many people, like me, would have kept living their normal social lives (like people are now doing in the EU despite the case numbers) and these people would have kept some proportion of local small businesses open. On the other hand, I am forced to work from home, so city businesses where I would normally get coffee and lunch wouldn't be getting my business. I think we would find CBD businesses doing it hard lock-down or otherwise. Some probably wouldn't be viable with less foot traffic.

So I would say better off...but still not great.
  DirtyBallast Chief Commissioner

Location: I was here first. You're only visiting.
Economy means nothing if you are dead.
route14
Also, an economy is not a society.
  Mr. Lane Chief Commissioner

Economy means nothing if you are dead.
route14
Getting so sick of hearing these simplistic comments that assume its either economy or death.
  Mr. Lane Chief Commissioner

Economy means nothing if you are dead.
Also, an economy is not a society.
DirtyBallast
Society and economy are so intertwined you cannot have one without the other.
  Gayspie Deputy Commissioner

Location: Adelaide, SA
Would anyone here like to comment on the Australian response to the 2009 swine flu pandemic vs the Australian response to the 2020 coronavirus pandemic?
  RTT_Rules Oliver Bullied, CME

Location: Dubai UAE
Would anyone here like to comment on the Australian response to the 2009 swine flu pandemic vs the Australian response to the 2020 coronavirus pandemic?
"Gayspie"


2009 Swine Flu
37,500 known infections, 191 confirmed deaths, known death rate 0.5%.

Some schools were temporarily closed and Tami-flu administered.

2020 CV-19
27,000 known infections, 803 deaths , death rate 3%.

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