The corona virus COVID-19

 
  RTT_Rules Oliver Bullied, CME

Location: Dubai UAE
Agree, everything is based on economic cost. What is 14,000 lives plus the cost of their health car until they die plus the many times more who will fill hospitals and ICU's at $1000's day per patient worth?
The first answer is easy: 14,000 deaths is $68.6 Billion AUD. The thing is, though, that figure is based on 14,000 "average working Citizens" not the vast majority of COVID victims who are already retired and not contributing to the workforce or nations bottom line, but whose desperate need for protection has crippled the Federation and racked up a national debt that defies comprehension.

Given we've spent probably twice that already with JobKeeper/Seeker and other support payments, the economic cost v benefit doesn't stack up no matter how you move the microscope. Economically, we would have been better to do nothing at all except the initial lock-down in order to give the health system time to prepare.

And we wouldn't be in the situation we are now where people are not being allowed to go to their child's funeral, or see their father before he dies, or losing an unborn baby because the medical staff thought the border restrictions prohibited transport across state lines. For those of us old enough to remember that TV show Dinosaurs, I reckon they might have been on to something with Hurling Day....Confused
"KRviator"


The current cost is $124m / death.

The rough $ potential saving you are indicating is $7.3m/death.

Based on the fact most sub 60 years who die from CV-19 have underlying medical conditions and thus while working may not actually be making a positive contribution to the economy as a result of their heavily subsidized medical costs. Sub 50 year olds at risk include those on chemo, now just to personalise this, my wife at age 40 got cancer and fully recovered after 9mths of treatment. The costs for the diagnosis and treatment in Dubai starts at A$100k, none of which is covered by UAE govts, only health insurance and personal cost.  While there maybe an argument (not saying I support) to let the 80 and 90's year olds meet their maker for the benefit of the rest of us, do you apply that to the sub 50/60's? People who are working, potentially still raising families etc, but have short term or longterm medical conditions that make them higher risk. People with diabetes are another example, high risk to the CV-19, but likely still working and raising families.  

To make this more morally complex, if we are going to let these people die for the benefit of all of us to save $100B, why not limit the funding to their medical costs permanently and save us alot more money. In 2018, 350m claims were made to Medicare, not bad for a population of just 25m.

Of course the other issue, let the virus run free, what about the cost and impacts to the medical system including those who need treatment for other things and get pushed out?

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  BrentonGolding Chief Commissioner

Location: Maldon Junction
If there is any such thing as good news for Victoria ATM then today's number (35 new cases) should bring some hope to those locked down in Melbourne

The 14 day average should drop quite a bit this week providing cases remain low, the days to drop off the other end of the scale over the next few days range from 70 to 113 while new case numbers are hovering around the 40 mark.

Still too high but we should get to the 30 > 50 required number pretty soon.

And the total number of unknown source cases is actually dropping ATM, I assume  as contact tracers get some breathing space to go back over some old ground a bit more thoroughly
  speedemon08 Mary

Location: I think by now you should have figured it out
BUT MELBOURNE HAS THE HARSHEST LOCKDOWN



  lsrailfan Chief Commissioner

Location: Somewhere you're not
I went out to the Sydney Airport today, just to get a perspective of what it is like during these pandemic times, it was very surreal to say the least! normally  the airport  would be bustling with 100s of people at any given time, today, it was totally dead! at both the International and Domestic Terminals I probably would have seen less than 100 people!
  lsrailfan Chief Commissioner

Location: Somewhere you're not
I just read this article, it's a fascinating read about how we must learn to "live with this virus" , I think certain Premier's in this country are dead set scared ****less to even let one or 2 cases in, a few weeks ago, NSW had something like 15-20 cases a day for several days in a row, to Glady's credit, she didn't buckle with that, but rather- NSW Health put out messages of if people had been at the affected venues during x and x times, they MUST get tested and self isolate no matter what. to me that sounds logical - https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/are-we-a-nation-of-coronavirus-pessimists-and-is-there-a-better-way-20200911-p55uuo.html#comments
  bevans Site Admin

Location: Melbourne, Australia
I went out to the Sydney Airport today, just to get a perspective of what it is like during these pandemic times, it was very surreal to say the least! normally  the airport  would be bustling with 100s of people at any given time, today, it was totally dead! at both the International and Domestic Terminals I probably would have seen less than 100 people!
lsrailfan

It must have felt quite erie if you think about it since the corridors would have been devoid of noise.
  Carnot Minister for Railways

I went out to the Sydney Airport today, just to get a perspective of what it is like during these pandemic times, it was very surreal to say the least! normally  the airport  would be bustling with 100s of people at any given time, today, it was totally dead! at both the International and Domestic Terminals I probably would have seen less than 100 people!
lsrailfan
Slightly different to this day 20 years ago when the Sydney Olympics started....

Anyway, things are going to be much better in Regional Vic after tomorrow.  Still quite a lot of restrictions though, but understandable (mostly).
  bevans Site Admin

Location: Melbourne, Australia
Just got off the phone from a friend in singapore who say the covid issues are still not great in Singapore but getting better.
  bevans Site Admin

Location: Melbourne, Australia
42 new cases today in Victoria.
  lsrailfan Chief Commissioner

Location: Somewhere you're not
Interesting read here, the article says that many more Australians could have had Coronavirus and not even realized it - https://www.9news.com.au/national/coronavirus-scientists-fear-number-of-infections-in-australia-seven-times-higher-than-reported/4b1fb4bc-d61a-4b8f-b2df-c9be071b94b8
  bevans Site Admin

Location: Melbourne, Australia
And this https://www.railpage.com.au/news/s/coronavirus-was-made-in-a-chinese-lab-and-released-intentionally-whistleblower-virologist today where a whistleblower who escapred from China is stating the virus is man made.

A Chinese virologist whistleblower who fled the country after leaving her job at a Hong Kong university claims coronavirus was “man-made” in a lab – and the communist nation released the virus “intentionally”.

Doctor Li-Meng Yan, who published a study undermining the origin theory that coronavirus came from nature, told Fox News it did not come from nature.
Somebody

If true then this is a very serious issue.  Maybe the virus was released not by the state but a rogue worker?

In her research, Dr Li-Meng said SARS-CoV-2, the virus which causes COVID-19, shows “biological characteristics that are inconsistent with a naturally occurring zoonotic virus” and could be created in a lab in “approximately six months”.
Somebody

Could not according to her have developed naturally in the environment.
  KRviator Moderator

Location: Up the front
As if we needed any more evidence the border closures are a political plaything, QLD has barred the Prime Minister, ScoMo, from entering the state unless he completes a mandatory 14 day quarantine. Rolling Eyes
  Valvegear Dr Beeching

Location: Norda Fittazroy
As if we needed any more evidence the border closures are a political plaything, QLD has barred the Prime Minister, ScoMo, from entering the state unless he completes a mandatory 14 day quarantine.
KRviator
Why not? He's no more immune to Covid-19 than anybody else.
In any event, anything that dents politicans' Sense of Entitlement is no bad thing.
  justapassenger Minister for Railways

And this https://www.railpage.com.au/news/s/coronavirus-was-made-in-a-chinese-lab-and-released-intentionally-whistleblower-virologist today where a whistleblower who escapred from China is stating the virus is man made.

A Chinese virologist whistleblower who fled the country after leaving her job at a Hong Kong university claims coronavirus was “man-made” in a lab – and the communist nation released the virus “intentionally”.

Doctor Li-Meng Yan, who published a study undermining the origin theory that coronavirus came from nature, told Fox News it did not come from nature.

If true then this is a very serious issue.  Maybe the virus was released not by the state but a rogue worker?

In her research, Dr Li-Meng said SARS-CoV-2, the virus which causes COVID-19, shows “biological characteristics that are inconsistent with a naturally occurring zoonotic virus” and could be created in a lab in “approximately six months”.

Could not according to her have developed naturally in the environment.
bevans
Fort Detrick has labs perfectly suited to this sort of work.
  justapassenger Minister for Railways

As if we needed any more evidence the border closures are a political plaything, QLD has barred the Prime Minister, ScoMo, from entering the state unless he completes a mandatory 14 day quarantine.
Why not? He's no more immune to Covid-19 than anybody else.
In any event, anything that dents politicans' Sense of Entitlement is no bad thing.
Valvegear
I hope the Qld quarantine facilities have very unreliable telecommunications links.
  BrentonGolding Chief Commissioner

Location: Maldon Junction
42 new cases today in Victoria.
bevans
And 10 reclassified making the total increase 32

I would love to know how far back these cases which are removed go. Do they effect the 14 day average? If so is the 14 day average recalculated to take them into account?

If this information is out there I haven't been able to find it.
  justarider Deputy Commissioner

Location: Bored at home
42 new cases today in Victoria.
And 10 reclassified making the total increase 32

I would love to know how far back these cases which are removed go. Do they effect the 14 day average? If so is the 14 day average recalculated to take them into account?

If this information is out there I haven't been able to find it.
BrentonGolding
Pretty simple really.

If "Fred's" result 5 days ago was a false positive,  then the total new cases 5 days ago is less one. The averages work from those revised daily numbers.

Supose its somewhere in govt land. Hard to visualise a graph for the last 3 months overlaid with every day revision of the line. (100 lines that look the same without a magnify glass)
  BrentonGolding Chief Commissioner

Location: Maldon Junction
42 new cases today in Victoria.
And 10 reclassified making the total increase 32

I would love to know how far back these cases which are removed go. Do they effect the 14 day average? If so is the 14 day average recalculated to take them into account?

If this information is out there I haven't been able to find it.
Pretty simple really.

If "Fred's" result 5 days ago was a false positive,  then the total new cases 5 days ago is less one. The averages work from those revised daily numbers.

Supose its somewhere in govt land. Hard to visualise a graph for the last 3 months overlaid with every day revision of the line. (100 lines that look the same without a magnify glass)
justarider
Um, I know how the reclasses work, and most of them are not false positives they are duplication so clearly not as simple as you think.......

The DHSS update says as much as I have pointed out before - the media release usually (but not always) includes the phrase "... were reclassified, largely due to duplication"

We are all on the edge of our seats waiting for headline numbers and now 14 day averages but the figures are opaque at best.

I have asked the Q before, does this happen in other states?
  justarider Deputy Commissioner

Location: Bored at home
42 new cases today in Victoria.
And 10 reclassified making the total increase 32

I would love to know how far back these cases which are removed go. Do they effect the 14 day average? If so is the 14 day average recalculated to take them into account?

If this information is out there I haven't been able to find it.
Pretty simple really.

If "Fred's" result 5 days ago was a false positive,  then the total new cases 5 days ago is less one. The averages work from those revised daily numbers.

Supose its somewhere in govt land. Hard to visualise a graph for the last 3 months overlaid with every day revision of the line. (100 lines that look the same without a magnify glass)
Um, I know how the reclasses work, and most of them are not false positives they are duplication so clearly not as simple as you think.......

The DHSS update says as much as I have pointed out before - the media release usually (but not always) includes the phrase "... were reclassified, largely due to duplication"

We are all on the edge of our seats waiting for headline numbers and now 14 day averages but the figures are opaque at best.

I have asked the Q before, does this happen in other states?
BrentonGolding
If you want to be pendant, then "if fred was counted on day 10 and duplicated on day 15, then day 15 becomes less one".
Irrelevant the cause of error, it gets backed out.

"Opaque" what does that even mean anymore?.

I would hazard that it doesn't happen to any noticeable extent in other States, because thankfully their numbers aren't big enough to notice.
  BrentonGolding Chief Commissioner

Location: Maldon Junction
If you want to be pendant, then "if fred was counted on day 10 and duplicted on day 15, then day 15 becomes less one".
Irrelevant the cause of error, it gets backed out.

"Opaque" what does that even mean anymore?.

I would hazard that it doesn't happen to any noticeable extent in other States, because thankfully their numbers aren't big enough to notice.
justarider
I don't want to sound like a pedant but WTF is a pendant?

I am not going to bother with the rest, you are clearly the expert.......
  Graham4405 Minister for Railways

Location: Dalby Qld
I don't want to sound like a pedant but WTF is a pendant?
BrentonGolding

https://www.dictionary.com/browse/pendant?s=t Wink
  Valvegear Dr Beeching

Location: Norda Fittazroy
I don't want to sound like a pedant but WTF is a pendant?
"BrentonGolding"
Something that goes around the neck like a hangman's noose, but not as effective.
  lsrailfan Chief Commissioner

Location: Somewhere you're not
Since this is to do with Covid- it seems as though the economy is performing a lot better than people expected it to, for now anyway - https://www.msn.com/en-au/news/australia/unemployment-rate-is-down-to-68percent-after-100000-jobs-created-in-august/ar-BB197u5G?ocid=msedgntp
  Carnot Minister for Railways

Nearly all the new jobs were self-employed workers taking out ABNs and joining the gig economy. Ie. Uber Eats/Menulog drivers...

Incidentally, the UK is tightening up rules again as the second wave hits.  Sound like they're going to have a rough winter.
  lsrailfan Chief Commissioner

Location: Somewhere you're not
Nearly all the new jobs were self-employed workers taking out ABNs and joining the gig economy. Ie. Uber Eats/Menulog drivers...

Incidentally, the UK is tightening up rules again as the second wave hits.  Sound like they're going to have a rough winter.
Carnot
Also, some hospitals over in France are nearly reaching capacity as well, which isn't good!

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