The corona virus COVID-19

 
  Mr. Lane Chief Commissioner

That Covid is ‘behind’ the ‘Spanish’ flu’s death rate probably says more about the benefit of 100+ years of medical advancement than it says about the relative strength/danger/mortality of the two viruses.
Aaron
No that is total conjecture on your part and fits with the pattern of you trying to pump up COVID into a bigger deal than it is.

The Spanish Flu by this point had already killed more people than have even been admitted to hospital for COVID. Modern medicine can't explain the discrepancy when there aren't even enough people sick enough to benefit from said medicine to make up the numbers.

The Spanish Flu spread in a time of much slower global transportation, yet had already killed millions by this point, when the world population was much lower, including many, many young and fit people in their 20s and 30s. It was much more indiscriminate.

Worth noting that the Spanish Flu didn't even reach much of the world until the 3rd wave. It didn't even reach Australia until the 3rd wave, but the death count was probably at least 10 million, by the most conservative estimates, by that point.

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  TedFreeman Junior Train Controller

Location: Toowoomba, Queensland
What would the result be if COVID 19 had gone unchecked?

73 years old and not required by some thoughts.

Just to add, I have been told to my face that why should everybody suffer to save the naturally unneeded elderly, I think unchecked many more younger ones would be victims as well.

Teditor
  Aaron The Ghost of George Stephenson

Location: University of Adelaide SA
That Covid is ‘behind’ the ‘Spanish’ flu’s death rate probably says more about the benefit of 100+ years of medical advancement than it says about the relative strength/danger/mortality of the two viruses.
No that is total conjecture on your part and fits with the pattern of you trying to pump up COVID into a bigger deal than it is.

The Spanish Flu by this point had already killed more people than have even been admitted to hospital for COVID. Modern medicine can't explain the discrepancy when there aren't even enough people sick enough to benefit from said medicine to make up the numbers.

The Spanish Flu spread in a time of much slower global transportation, yet had already killed millions by this point, when the world population was much lower, including many, many young and fit people in their 20s and 30s. It was much more indiscriminate.

Worth noting that the Spanish Flu didn't even reach much of the world until the 3rd wave. It didn't even reach Australia until the 3rd wave, but the death count was probably at least 10 million, by the most conservative estimates, by that point.
Mr. Lane
Not conjecture at all; more like reasoned thought, a trained eye for numbers and very extensive education in statistics and probability.

‘Spanish Flu’ is just what you call a strain of influenza that exists today, H1N1, LESS THAN 100 years of medical advancement was available when the most recent serious epidemic of a novel H1N1 circled the planet (2009). The US CDC have good data - the outbreak originated there, and they estimate WORLDWIDE deaths due to respiratory complications in the first twelve months of the outbreak to have a median value of 312,000 with maximum and minimum estimations of 585,000 and 78,000 respectively.

I will be generous, I’ll accept that the number of H1N1 deaths in TWELVE MONTHS was 585,000 (the maximum estimate, so likely less), I’ll accept that the initial outbreak of COVID19 was December 1 (it was after that), and I’ll accept that we are at the end of September, (we’re not yet), and that the current COVID19 death count is 989,000 (it’s actually going to be higher than that due to ‘sluggish’ reporting).

Your task is to convince the rest of us how an excess of 405,000 COVID19 deaths after only ten months, not twelve makes COVID19 less dangerous than H1N1.

I have not even mentioned the ‘lockdowns’ all over the world, the near complete abandonment of international travel, and the extraordinary precautions in terms of distancing never before seen for such a viral outbreak, complete absence of a ‘world war’, or advancement in medicine in the ensuing years, all of which without question, have made COVID19 ‘look less dangerous’ than it is.

The surprise today should not be that Spanish Flu killed so many a hundred years ago, but that COVID19 has killed so few in the present.

COVID19 is a nasty critter, and if the world treated it with the same lack of respect as you Mr Lane, it would have put every annual illness you could name properly in the shade.

EDIT: some grammar, I was on my way to dinner in town typing on my phone in the back of an Uber.
  Valvegear Dr Beeching

Location: Norda Fittazroy
Not conjecture at all; more like reasoned thought, a trained eye for numbers and very extensive education in statistics and probability.
"Aaron"

"Have you the statistics, Mr Crun?"
"Very badly sir, very badly."
  lsrailfan Chief Commissioner

Location: Somewhere you're not
The death count is already WELL OVER 1 million, the official figures say 994,022, but believe me, it is waaay more than that! I.E , China's deaths not having moved in 3 months (give.me.a. break!!!), them having not counted all the deaths properly in the U.K nursing homes/aged care homes earlier on in the outbreak, I believe those figures weren't actually added to the total of U.K deaths , the inability to conduct proper testing in poorer economic countries.
  Aaron The Ghost of George Stephenson

Location: University of Adelaide SA
Not conjecture at all; more like reasoned thought, a trained eye for numbers and very extensive education in statistics and probability.

"Have you the statistics, Mr Crun?"
"Very badly sir, very badly."
Valvegear
I think Mr Lane learnt statistics from The Goon Show.
  Aaron The Ghost of George Stephenson

Location: University of Adelaide SA
The death count is already WELL OVER 1 million, the official figures say 994,022, but believe me, it is waaay more than that! I.E , China's deaths not having moved in 3 months (give.me.a. break!!!), them having not counted all the deaths properly in the U.K nursing homes/aged care homes earlier on in the outbreak, I believe those figures weren't actually added to the total of U.K deaths , the inability to conduct proper testing in poorer economic countries.
lsrailfan
This is true, and I had already edited my post before I saw your comment.

Yes, in an active event, particularly one that spans many countries, many time zones, differing economies, differing languages and differing reporting standards the ‘current figure’ will necessarily always lag the ‘actual’ number.
  RTT_Rules Oliver Bullied, CME

Location: Dubai UAE
The death count is already WELL OVER 1 million, the official figures say 994,022, but believe me, it is waaay more than that! I.E , China's deaths not having moved in 3 months (give.me.a. break!!!), them having not counted all the deaths properly in the U.K nursing homes/aged care homes earlier on in the outbreak, I believe those figures weren't actually added to the total of U.K deaths , the inability to conduct proper testing in poorer economic countries.
lsrailfan
While I don't disagree with the concerns over China's number there are some significant cultural and lifestyle differences between China and EU countries.

The first being the Chinese don't argue about wearing masks and avoiding physical contact, Asian's as a whole did this before anyway. Many are clean freaks.

The Chinese will follow govt directives without much opposition and the govt can easily come in hard  and fast and there is no push back.

Older people generally don't live in groups in homes, rather at home with their family and the cities are full of mostly young people.

The Chinese population is much younger than UK. They have been having below replacement birth rate for decades yet the population won't top out until another 10- 12 years.
  Mr. Lane Chief Commissioner

Not conjecture at all; more like reasoned thought, a trained eye for numbers and very extensive education in statistics and probability.

"Have you the statistics, Mr Crun?"
"Very badly sir, very badly."
I think Mr Lane learnt statistics from The Goon Show.
Aaron
Your MO on this site is to use constant appeals to authority to prove your point, but you provide little substance beyond "I am more of an expert in this than you". As it turns out I happen to work at a university writing software for medical data analytics no less. So yeah...I can read and count buddy.

You have also used a slight of hand in your response as well. We are NOT talking about modern H1N1 outbreaks, we were talking about the Spanish Flu of 1918 specifically, which you already knew of course.

A quick search yields some statistics for you to analyse old boy:

"October 1918 was the month with the highest fatality rate of the whole pandemic. In the United States, ~292,000 deaths were reported between September–December 1918, compared to ~26,000 during the same time period in 1915. Copenhagen reported over 60,000 deaths, Holland reported 40,000+ deaths from influenza and acute respiratory disease, Bombay reported ~15,000 deaths in a population of 1.1 million. The 1918 flu pandemic in India was especially deadly, with an estimated 12.5–20 million deaths in the fall months of 1918 alone.

COVID is not even close to this, even in countries which have essentially had no lock-down response, or very little.
  justarider Deputy Commissioner

Location: Free at last, free at last
The death count is already WELL OVER 1 million, the official figures say 994,022, but believe me, it is waaay more than that! I.E , China's deaths not having moved in 3 months (give.me.a. break!!!), them having not counted all the deaths properly in the U.K nursing homes/aged care homes earlier on in the outbreak, I believe those figures weren't actually added to the total of U.K deaths , the inability to conduct proper testing in poorer economic countries.
While I don't disagree with the concerns over China's number there are some significant cultural and lifestyle differences between China and EU countries.

The first being the Chinese don't argue about wearing masks and avoiding physical contact, Asian's as a whole did this before anyway. Many are clean freaks.

The Chinese will follow govt directives without much opposition and the govt can easily come in hard  and fast and there is no push back.

Older people generally don't live in groups in homes, rather at home with their family and the cities are full of mostly young people.

The Chinese population is much younger than UK. They have been having below replacement birth rate for decades yet the population won't top out until another 10- 12 years.
RTT_Rules
I also agree @RTT that the numbers need to be taken with a pinch (handful) of salt.

I also agree that how the Chinese populace in general handle such things should be a lesson to the whingers/softies in OZ.

A couple of things that China did right/got lucky. From family there at the time.

The wheels started falling off right when National Holiday was about to start.
Normally 100million plus go on the move all over the country to visit family. Typically the young ones leaving big city for 2 weeks with mum & dad at the home village.
That was stopped dead. Nobody going nowhere, meant further transmission between cities stopped even though the horse had bolted.

The good thing was that all the villagers were well stocked with food anticipating the non-arrivals, and the virus hadn't arrived.
Regional Australia would be roughly comparable but not so lightly touched.

When quarantine was enforced they really mean business.
Whole cities of multi millions in apartments were effectively locked inside. Door knock, and you better be home or else. Think the Kensington Housing Commission towers and amp that up a million times.
Wuhan was extreme, they didn't just road-block. The roads were bulldozed.

It surely sounds scary, but at the same time full support was mobilised for all the shut-ins. Mainly good food, medical and internet; they're not big on mental well being stuff. The PLA are amongst many things a formidable logistics powerhouse.
In comparison, Kensington was shameful.

Concluding, China did things that really got their act together. Would I live there - hell NO.

cheers
John
  RTT_Rules Oliver Bullied, CME

Location: Dubai UAE
I also agree @RTT that the numbers need to be taken with a pinch (handful) of salt.

I also agree that how the Chinese populace in general handle such things should be a lesson to the whingers/softies in OZ.

A couple of things that China did right/got lucky. From family there at the time.

The wheels started falling off right when National Holiday was about to start.
Normally 100million plus go on the move all over the country to visit family. Typically the young ones leaving big city for 2 weeks with mum & dad at the home village.
That was stopped dead. Nobody going nowhere, meant further transmission between cities stopped even though the horse had bolted.

The good thing was that all the villagers were well stocked with food anticipating the non-arrivals, and the virus hadn't arrived.
Regional Australia would be roughly comparable but not so lightly touched.

When quarantine was enforced they really mean business.
Whole cities of multi millions in apartments were effectively locked inside. Door knock, and you better be home or else. Think the Kensington Housing Commission towers and amp that up a million times.
Wuhan was extreme, they didn't just road-block. The roads were bulldozed.

It surely sounds scary, but at the same time full support was mobilised for all the shut-ins. Mainly good food, medical and internet; they're not big on mental well being stuff. The PLA are amongst many things a formidable logistics powerhouse.
In comparison, Kensington was shameful.

Concluding, China did things that really got their act together. Would I live there - hell NO.

cheers
John
justarider
Thanks for that John

Didn't they as far as putting security camera's in some people's houses. likely those not deemed trust worthy.

We went through our own lockdown in Dubai, not China scale, but for 3 weeks we needed Govt permission to leave the house. to buy food you first had to apply for your permit and when received approval, off you go. Even after things opened up a little with restrictions, we had drones flying over head looking backyard parties and lots of cars out the front.

When the curfew was in, your phone would go off with the warning sms and curfew sms.

Today, we still live with restrictions, but life goes on. The simple approach is when planning an event, if there isn't a POS device there, you probably shouldn't do it. This is to stop the private parties and gatherings where there is no one controlling and the fines are large, starting at $1000 for just attending, more for the host and jail is used if bad enough. No one complains about wearing and mask or protests. If you don't like it, you know where the airport is. No we don't like it, but its what we accept to get back to life here.

I'm aware of some private parties and the efforts people go to make sure it stays under the radar, personally I just think you playing with fire and wouldn't attend as it would likely risk my job.

Kids havn't been to school since March, Dubai kids went back in Sept, but ours in Sharjah have a few more weeks, don't ask me why the difference although Dubai is very internationally focused due to their economy mostly reliant on tourism and trade (Dubai has little Oil).

With all this, I then read FB and see the posts by mostly Victorians, some ex-Dubai friends. Honestly for some of over here we have never felt so ashamed to be called Aussies. John mentioned the words "soft" and "whingers", you are being nice. When someone tells me they are worried about their kids mental health because they cannot leave a 5km circle and have a 8pm curfew and their kids have been only on line schooling for 2mths, WTF, seriously. Most of the population probably don't travel that far normally anyway.

CV-19 has changed the world, but its also shown how vulnerable the democracies are to dealing with such natural disasters and potentially exposes a strategic weakness for China to exploit.

I saw a great carton of the Titantic in mid sinking with the "Freedomists" and "anti-maskers" and "non-believers", if I find it again I'll post

Regards
Shane
  justarider Deputy Commissioner

Location: Free at last, free at last
Didn't they as far as putting security camera's in some people's houses. likely those not deemed trust worthy.
RTT_Rules
Dont think they would do that.
It's a standard feature of Smart TV Laughing

cheers
John
  speedemon08 Mary

Location: I think by now you should have figured it out
Didn't they as far as putting security camera's in some people's houses. likely those not deemed trust worthy.
Dont think they would do that.
It's a standard feature of Smart TV Laughing

cheers
John
justarider
I'm yet to see a TV with a camera on it.
  lsrailfan Chief Commissioner

Location: Somewhere you're not
Tonight the Coronavirus figures will top the 1 Million mark,  which is very sad, will be interesting to see how long it takes to reach 2 million, as cases are rapidly rising in the world, and the number of serious/critical cases are as well, it might not be as long as what people think.
  Aaron The Ghost of George Stephenson

Location: University of Adelaide SA
Not conjecture at all; more like reasoned thought, a trained eye for numbers and very extensive education in statistics and probability.

"Have you the statistics, Mr Crun?"
"Very badly sir, very badly."
I think Mr Lane learnt statistics from The Goon Show.
Your MO on this site is to use constant appeals to authority to prove your point, but you provide little substance beyond "I am more of an expert in this than you". As it turns out I happen to work at a university writing software for medical data analytics no less. So yeah...I can read and count buddy.

You have also used a slight of hand in your response as well. We are NOT talking about modern H1N1 outbreaks, we were talking about the Spanish Flu of 1918 specifically, which you already knew of course.

A quick search yields some statistics for you to analyse old boy:

"October 1918 was the month with the highest fatality rate of the whole pandemic. In the United States, ~292,000 deaths were reported between September–December 1918, compared to ~26,000 during the same time period in 1915. Copenhagen reported over 60,000 deaths, Holland reported 40,000+ deaths from influenza and acute respiratory disease, Bombay reported ~15,000 deaths in a population of 1.1 million. The 1918 flu pandemic in India was especially deadly, with an estimated 12.5–20 million deaths in the fall months of 1918 alone.

COVID is not even close to this, even in countries which have essentially had no lock-down response, or very little.
Mr. Lane
No slight of hand, ‘Spanish Flu’ was H1N1 influenza, the same subtype of influenza that turned up in in 2009 and killed next to no one in comparison to 1918, why do you think that is so?

Ask the people you write software for why they think it’s so, if you cannot figure it out yourself.
  KRviator Moderator

Location: Up the front
Tonight the Coronavirus figures will top the 1 Million mark,  which is very sad, will be interesting to see how long it takes to reach 2 million, as cases are rapidly rising in the world, and the number of serious/critical cases are as well, it might not be as long as what people think.
lsrailfan
The - literal as well as figurative - billion dollar question will be whether fatalities continue at the same percentage of cases as has been seen so far, or whether they will decline.
  lsrailfan Chief Commissioner

Location: Somewhere you're not
Tonight the Coronavirus figures will top the 1 Million mark,  which is very sad, will be interesting to see how long it takes to reach 2 million, as cases are rapidly rising in the world, and the number of serious/critical cases are as well, it might not be as long as what people think.
The - literal as well as figurative - billion dollar question will be whether fatalities continue at the same percentage of cases as has been seen so far, or whether they will decline.
KRviator
That's the $64 dollar question yes, death's are not dropping at this stage, they seem to be remaining stable, but as the serious/critical cases are rising, I expect the death's will increase as well yes, whether it's a big jump or not It'll be hard to tell.
  allan Chief Commissioner

Early evidence is that Covid 19 is mutating significantly more slowly than seasonal flu. There are two significant implications of this: a vaccine may well have a longer life than that for H1N1, and the virulence of the covid 19 virus may take much longer to diminish than has been the case for H1N1.

https://www.livescience.com/coronavirus-mutation-rate.html
  YM-Mundrabilla Minister for Railways

Location: Mundrabilla but I'd rather be in Narvik
No need to worry any further about Covid in Melbourne as the epidemic is obviously over as the proper wearing of masks has dropped to around 50% in the last 48 hours.
  • No masks
  • Mask around neck
  • Nose out of mask
  • Take your pick
At least some proportion of the decline in cases so far must be attributable to the proper wearing of masks by ~90% of people over recent weeks, however, infections must increase in days to come based on my observations today.

Seems to me that masks are the simplest and least inconvenient precaution that we can all take but there will, of course, be the usual inconsiderate lot who will form the basis of the third wave ..................
  Carnot Minister for Railways

So only 5 new cases reported in Melb this morning.  The 5km limit seems ridiculous overkill IMO.
  Valvegear Dr Beeching

Location: Norda Fittazroy
No need to worry any further about Covid in Melbourne as the epidemic is obviously over as the proper wearing of masks has dropped to around 50% in the last 48 hours.
Take your pick
"YM-Mundrabilla"
Pick what - mask or nose?
  michaelgm Chief Commissioner

No need to worry any further about Covid in Melbourne as the epidemic is obviously over as the proper wearing of masks has dropped to around 50% in the last 48 hours.
  • No masks
  • Mask around neck
  • Nose out of mask
  • Take your pick
At least some proportion of the decline in cases so far must be attributable to the proper wearing of masks by ~90% of people over recent weeks, however, infections must increase in days to come based on my observations today.

Seems to me that masks are the simplest and least inconvenient precaution that we can all take but there will, of course, be the usual inconsiderate lot who will form the basis of the third wave ..................
YM-Mundrabilla
If there is a third wave, fingers crossed there is not, that is a matter for the state government.
No third wave, should have opened earlier, feds.
  DirtyBallast Chief Commissioner

Location: I was here first. You're only visiting.
So only 5 new cases reported in Melb this morning.  The 5km limit seems ridiculous overkill IMO.
Carnot
So no addition to the road toll overnight. The BAC 0.05% limit and compulsory seat belts seems ridiculous overkill in your opinion, no?
  DirtyBallast Chief Commissioner

Location: I was here first. You're only visiting.
No need to worry any further about Covid in Melbourne as the epidemic is obviously over as the proper wearing of masks has dropped to around 50% in the last 48 hours.
  • No masks
  • Mask around neck
  • Nose out of mask
  • Take your pick
At least some proportion of the decline in cases so far must be attributable to the proper wearing of masks by ~90% of people over recent weeks, however, infections must increase in days to come based on my observations today.

Seems to me that masks are the simplest and least inconvenient precaution that we can all take but there will, of course, be the usual inconsiderate lot who will form the basis of the third wave ..................
If there is a third wave, fingers crossed there is not, that is a matter for the state government.
No third wave, should have opened earlier, feds.
michaelgm
Yep. The question also remains, if Victoria opens up earlier just because the Feds say so, and a third wave eventuates, are the Feds willing to pay for it?
  doyle Assistant Commissioner

What another inquiry

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