Electric Vehicles (EV) Discussions

 
  NSWGR8022 Chief Commissioner

Location: From the lands of Journalism and Free Speech
The sale of EV's in Australia is very very low with the highest selling model being the Telstra Model S https://www.tesla.com/en_au/models but this was only a few thousand cars across the entire country for the last 12 months.  Why is the uptake of EV's in Australia in the personal car market so low?

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  Galron Chief Commissioner

Location: Werribee, Vic
The sale of EV's in Australia is very very low with the highest selling model being the Telstra Model S https://www.tesla.com/en_au/models but this was only a few thousand cars across the entire country for the last 12 months.  Why is the uptake of EV's in Australia in the personal car market so low?
NSWGR8022
From the outside looking in i'd say price, and charging locations. Yes, both are being attended to, but i'm not aware of public charging locations in my home town areas in east gippsland, victoria. Bairnsdale, Lakes Entrance, Orbost should (and may, i just don't know of any) all need them. In Lakes Entrance, your talking a major tourist town as well.

On the price side, just a quick google has the Hyundai Kona Electric almost twice the price of the top spec petrol model. Your only going to get people on very good income or where their blood runs green going after those.

While electric is becoming more and more popular, and people that can afford them are getting them, we are far from critical mass on them. We will have to wait for 2030 and some jurisdictions banning the sale of new passenger cars that are not full electric (or at least not traditional petrol/diesel).

I personally am more inclined to buy hybrid at present, but even then there's a price penalty still. Mind you, I've never owned a new car, and with nothing in the market truly appealing to me as a daily driver, I'm probably going to stay with my 2012 Forester Diesel for the foreseeable future.
  Madjikthise Deputy Commissioner

Straight off the top of my head, the ridiculous price for what you get. I think the cheapest around is about $50,000. By the time you pay off the difference compared to the equivalent petrol or diesel car, also taking into account refilling/recharging for both, it's past time to buy a new one.
Also lack of infrastructure for charging.
Also we like to drive long distances to the middle of nowhere.
Also the government about to implement a km charge for electric vehicles.
Also no rebates compared to other countries.
Also even if we did get a rebate that would just increase the price so we'd end up paying the same.

I probably missed something.
  aussie48 Junior Train Controller

Location: Melbourne
Straight off the top of my head, the ridiculous price for what you get. I think the cheapest around is about $50,000. By the time you pay off the difference compared to the equivalent petrol or diesel car, also taking into account refilling/recharging for both, it's past time to buy a new one.
Also lack of infrastructure for charging.
Also we like to drive long distances to the middle of nowhere.
Also the government about to implement a km charge for electric vehicles.
Also no rebates compared to other countries.
Also even if we did get a rebate that would just increase the price so we'd end up paying the same.

I probably missed something.
Madjikthise
Yes Australia currently does not have the capacity to recharge EV's, due to the renewable only policy I doubt we ever will have enough generation capacity to re-charge EV's should they ever be affordable and ICE vehicles repalced by EV's.
  RTT_Rules Oliver Bullied, CME

Location: Dubai UAE
The charging situation would obviously discourage some purchases, however not for commuter users who can charge at home.

The bulk of Australian's live in or near major centers and most of these don't drive through rural / whoop whoop areas where range would be an issue. From last year you can drive relatively easy between Brisbane and Melbourne by an number of routes, but yes you need to plan the trip and recharge at the next charging station. This will continue to improve with time and its happening quickly.

Main reasons EV's are not yet in high numbers in Oz

- Toyota doesn't yet offer EV's, focusing on hybrids
- Australia's most popular types of cars are not available globally in an EV yet, ie dual cab, but wait 3-4 years
- Lack of RHD EV models globally
- Most EV's imported to Oz are actually luxury models
- Govt failure to adopt and mandate charger standards in the early years of EV's didn't help the market sales
- Long delays in releasing RHD models to the Global market and at times Australia, the new Nissan Leaf was not available for nearly a year.

Range phobia and remoteness I think are minor issues.

Overall, I believe that if you dive into the actual EV sales data and compare the EV sales in the ICE car market that they are targetted to, ie apples for apples comparison, the market share is alot better than the poorly put together data that is usually shared comparing apples with watermelons.

The combined Tesla Model 3 is now the most popular EV in Australia by far. I'd expect sales to exceed 5,000 in 2021. When the Model Y comes, expect sales to exceed 10,000 in a year.
  RTT_Rules Oliver Bullied, CME

Location: Dubai UAE
EV batteries are obviously getting cheaper as Tesla often cuts the price on a regular basis, but also rising $A appears to be helping.

https://www.caradvice.com.au/731667/tesla-model-s-model-x-pricing/

Model X and S to see up to $80k or 25 - 33% price reductions.
  Big J Deputy Commissioner

Location: In Paradise
Lack of charging locations away from home. This is chicken and the egg situation. More of these will only be installed once more are bought. But the lack of these is a big disincentive to buy.

Lack of dealerships. I live in a regional city in North Qld, where do I go for a person to service the vehicle that is appropriately qualified? I can't go to the local mechanic. Oh, I have to drive 1000km to Brisbane.

Lack of green credentials in OZ. Most power in OZ is from carbon. However my view this is neutral and not barrier as the current internal combustion engine is worse.

Price. As others said still outside of the sweet spot. Too much and not enough value. I agree with RTT and I think that these will become the second car of most families, if they reduce the entry costs. I think MG is on the right path and hopefully BYD will hit our market to put pressure on others with their price point.

Range anxiety.  These will not be the main vehicles for families in regional Qld. I drive twice per year with the family down to Brissie. Takes 11 hours with fuel and meal breaks. An EV will significantly add time due to charging time and lack of range for that charge. It may take another 10 years to conquer that barrier.

In the interim with Toyota pushing hybrids, it is forcing others to introduce that. When the Hybrid Hilux lobs in the next 5 years, that alone will change the thinking of the largest market the ute drivers and other manufacturers. Eg Hyundai when they introduce their ute, I am sure hybrids will be part of that model development. Then that will flow onto other car classes.
  RTT_Rules Oliver Bullied, CME

Location: Dubai UAE
Lack of charging locations away from home. This is chicken and the egg situation. More of these will only be installed once more are bought. But the lack of these is a big disincentive to buy.

Lack of dealerships. I live in a regional city in North Qld, where do I go for a person to service the vehicle that is appropriately qualified? I can't go to the local mechanic. Oh, I have to drive 1000km to Brisbane.

Lack of green credentials in OZ. Most power in OZ is from carbon. However my view this is neutral and not barrier as the current internal combustion engine is worse.

Price. As others said still outside of the sweet spot. Too much and not enough value. I agree with RTT and I think that these will become the second car of most families, if they reduce the entry costs. I think MG is on the right path and hopefully BYD will hit our market to put pressure on others with their price point.

Range anxiety.  These will not be the main vehicles for families in regional Qld. I drive twice per year with the family down to Brissie. Takes 11 hours with fuel and meal breaks. An EV will significantly add time due to charging time and lack of range for that charge. It may take another 10 years to conquer that barrier.

In the interim with Toyota pushing hybrids, it is forcing others to introduce that. When the Hybrid Hilux lobs in the next 5 years, that alone will change the thinking of the largest market the ute drivers and other manufacturers. Eg Hyundai when they introduce their ute, I am sure hybrids will be part of that model development. Then that will flow onto other car classes.
Big J

You are right, they won't penetration deep into rural and distant regional Australia for some time and this has happened in the past with other technologies. For example would you want to own a Porsche in Cairns? Friends once had a Merc in Gladstone, when it due to for a service every year, drive to Brisbane 600km south, they didn't mind and knew it when the bought the car.

The advantage with an EV is however the lack of things to actually go wrong as no engine or gearbox that need specialised assistance. In UAE, Tesla does of their services at your location, ie its mobile.

11h drive to Brisbane, I'm assuming you are at Mackay? Assume you had a new larger range EV, 400 - 500km. For me, 4h max in the seat and I need out to stretch my legs and or bladder release. With kids, its more often and for longer. If you were able to connect to a 250kW charger (currently few and far between, but will grow), then even 15min on the charger is 50 -60 kW, that's about 320km boost for a Tesla Model 3/Y/X or S, starting with a full battery you could could get to Brisbane in 3 x 350 - 400km hops with 15min lost at each stop, maybe a bit longer for one if its a meal break. For now you would need ~20-30min per stop.

Toyota is not the only one that will push the hybrid utes, Ranger will have a hybrid option by 2022-23 and most others will follow quickly behind. Ranger will have an EV option somewhere between 2023 - 2025. The F150 EV is in testing now.

Toyota was in denial over EV's some time, but now changing their tune.
  speedemon08 Mary

Location: I think by now you should have figured it out
Toyota was in denial over EV's some time, but now changing their tune.
RTT_Rules
Too busy putting all their eggs into Hydrogen, which isnt going anywhere quickly.
  kitchgp Chief Commissioner

If and when EVs reach critical mass, the charging station situation will be reversed. Whilst the demand for petrol and oil won’t completely disappear, it will be drastically reduced. The negative economies of scale will increase the price of manufacture and distribution. A lot of service stations will close or become charging points not selling petrol, diesel or oil; particularly those in small country towns. (The die-hards might have to buy it in 200-litre drums.)

It's not just cars that are going electric, but others such as buses and delivery vehicles. Sydney, for example, has ordered 50 electric buses and proposes to replace all its 8000 buses by 2030 (a bit optimistic). A fair drop in the demand for diesel (not sure how many are gas powered).

A bit esoteric, but it will have wide spread effects such as in the Middle East. Things can happen quickly. 20 years ago (Sydney Olympics) there were no smart phones, TVs were CRT (4:3 aspect ratio), transmission was analogue, not digital, and the internet was dial-up.
  Donald Chief Commissioner

Location: Donald. Duck country.
Kitchgp, I think the small town service stations will remain as petrol/diesel stations.  Too many farmers/heavy vehicles and distances for the locals.  The towns off the main highways may have one or two charging points,  but most of the money will come from fossil fuels.
  NSWGR8022 Chief Commissioner

Location: From the lands of Journalism and Free Speech
EV batteries are obviously getting cheaper as Tesla often cuts the price on a regular basis, but also rising $A appears to be helping.

https://www.caradvice.com.au/731667/tesla-model-s-model-x-pricing/

Model X and S to see up to $80k or 25 - 33% price reductions.
RTT_Rules

I also think price has a bit to do with it and also the lack of charging opportunities without a plan to install any.  The opportunity is to develop a $20k EV car for around town because I personally do not think this current Tesla is in that market.
  RTT_Rules Oliver Bullied, CME

Location: Dubai UAE
If and when EVs reach critical mass, the charging station situation will be reversed. Whilst the demand for petrol and oil won’t completely disappear, it will be drastically reduced. The negative economies of scale will increase the price of manufacture and distribution. A lot of service stations will close or become charging points not selling petrol, diesel or oil; particularly those in small country towns. (The die-hards might have to buy it in 200-litre drums.)

It's not just cars that are going electric, but others such as buses and delivery vehicles. Sydney, for example, has ordered 50 electric buses and proposes to replace all its 8000 buses by 2030 (a bit optimistic). A fair drop in the demand for diesel (not sure how many are gas powered).

A bit esoteric, but it will have wide spread effects such as in the Middle East. Things can happen quickly. 20 years ago (Sydney Olympics) there were no smart phones, TVs were CRT (4:3 aspect ratio), transmission was analogue, not digital, and the internet was dial-up.
kitchgp
Ironically NZ is further ahead on commercially funded charging stations.

Due to CV-19, the prediction for peak oil consumption has potentially been brought forward to within the next few years, not already.

The ME (some) knows this is coming and working very hard to wean their economies off oil longer term, however they are still investing billions per year into oil and gas extraction as the market will demand for decades to come as retreating oil demand is mostly off-set by global population growth and growth in the developing economies of the world, especially Africa.

Agree, we will see petrol stations, especially highway type stations with their food courts increasingly add EV charging stations as the food court type stations and EV charging go hand in hand. Park, then charge while you eat. 30-40min later you have a empty bladder, full belly and full charge. Something frequently overlooked. However these petrol/charging stations will need major upgrades to their grid power connections, looking at something around 5MW.

I think the service station industry has been in decline for years with smaller lower volume locations closing in favor of larger locations usually combined with a supermarket and eateries as well as improving fuel economy. When we lived in Gladstone up to 2009, our cars could not reach Brisbane or only just on one tank. Now we lived there with the cars we own now, we could drive up and 50% on the way back. I've driven a rental Commodore from Brisbane Airport to Sydney Airport on one tank (through the night, no traffic sitting on cruise control).  

For the suburban type locations, again opportunistic charging is key. Charging your car while you are doing something else, like shopping, eating, recreation, hotel, Airbnb stay etc. And you see this in Europe with many restaurants in Norway having charging stations out the front and this was in 2010!

The key a advantage for charging stations as a business opportunity is that it doesn't take much (cost) to install a 7kW charging station or two out the front of your business and this includes . Something you can use to attract customers or charge and add an additional revenue source.
  RTT_Rules Oliver Bullied, CME

Location: Dubai UAE
EV batteries are obviously getting cheaper as Tesla often cuts the price on a regular basis, but also rising $A appears to be helping.

https://www.caradvice.com.au/731667/tesla-model-s-model-x-pricing/

Model X and S to see up to $80k or 25 - 33% price reductions.

I also think price has a bit to do with it and also the lack of charging opportunities without a plan to install any.  The opportunity is to develop a $20k EV car for around town because I personally do not think this current Tesla is in that market.
NSWGR8022
You can buy such cheap EV's but not in Oz and nor would they likely prove attractive.

EV's are still expensive due to battery technology, the price is dropping annually along with increasing range and will continue to do so. In the US now, today, my understanding is the the cost of a Model 3 vs a Camry driven average km/y is break even at 5 year ownership cycle.

A few years back there were predictions EV's would match ICE cars on price until the mid 2030's, this date is now alot closer, not sure when but at a guess 2025.

The likes of Land drover / Jaguar have recently announced the end of ICE vehicle sales for their brand in 2025, there have been others before them, others will follow. Yes, its much easier for a premium priced car manufacturer to do this as the customers are less price sensitive and as EV cars have proven to have superior performance on the roads, EV technology is also attractive to their customers, regardless of their green political views. I think LD/Jag is also expecting punitive pricing and more prohibition to inner city areas for ICE cars in the near future.
  Lockspike Chief Commissioner

Kitchgp, I think the small town service stations will remain as petrol/diesel stations.  Too many farmers/heavy vehicles and distances for the locals.  The towns off the main highways may have one or two charging points,  but most of the money will come from fossil fuels.
Donald
I've pondered this also and initially thought that servos would gradually become charging stations, but I'm not so sure now.

Most charging will take place at home/work/shopping centres.

Those who need to recharge enroute in small towns will want to recharge at a place where there is something to do while charging.
Hanging out while charging at an insalubrious garage is not an attractive idea for many.

A progressive local council may encourage a charger located where motorists can take refreshment and utilise toilets.
  RTT_Rules Oliver Bullied, CME

Location: Dubai UAE
Kitchgp, I think the small town service stations will remain as petrol/diesel stations.  Too many farmers/heavy vehicles and distances for the locals.  The towns off the main highways may have one or two charging points,  but most of the money will come from fossil fuels.
I've pondered this also and initially thought that servos would gradually become charging stations, but I'm not so sure now.

Most charging will take place at home/work/shopping centres.

Those who need to recharge enroute in small towns will want to recharge at a place where there is something to do while charging.
Hanging out while charging at an insalubrious garage is not an attractive idea for many.

A progressive local council may encourage a charger located where motorists can take refreshment and utilise toilets.
Lockspike
In built up suburban areas, agree, but on major highways and transport corridors I think petrol stations will slowly evolve into charging stations over a decade or more.

Last point is a good one.
  kitchgp Chief Commissioner

At Holbrook, the NRMA fast charge station is in the park near the submarine (HMAS Otway) and cafe.
  Carnot Minister for Railways

Things will change quickly with solid-state batteries.  The issue then is the grid (as it stands today) would collapse very quickly if a whole lot of people plugged in to 350 kW chargers around a similar time.  A lot of network management will be needed, along with localized pumped-hydro/battery storage charged by excess power from renewables.

This Spring and Summer saw many wind turbines idled and solar panels outputting a fraction of their potential because of supply vastly exceeding demand in Victoria, particularly in the middle of the day.
  RTT_Rules Oliver Bullied, CME

Location: Dubai UAE
Things will change quickly with solid-state batteries.  The issue then is the grid (as it stands today) would collapse very quickly if a whole lot of people plugged in to 350 kW chargers around a similar time.  A lot of network management will be needed, along with localized pumped-hydro/battery storage charged by excess power from renewables.

This Spring and Summer saw many wind turbines idled and solar panels outputting a fraction of their potential because of supply vastly exceeding demand in Victoria, particularly in the middle of the day.
Carnot
The good news is we have over 20 years to plan and make the changes required. Assume >95% mandatory EV by 2030, 10 year vehicle life for ICE, means it will 2040 just to have half the cars on the road EV, 2050 likely >80%.

10m strong fleet of cars now, average annual distance is 18,000 km/y (and its falling)
Assume 5m EV driving around 350km/w average using say 80kW to do so.

Most cars will be charged either at night, current off-peak after 10pm, or during the middle of the day when power prices will be minimal due to growing PV. So roughly 84h a week to change and based on above the average car would pull 1kw during that window. 5m cars = 5GW or 400 GWh each week, the NEM (which excludes WA and NT) is around 4000 GWh/week, so an increase of 8-9%.

If there is a massive abundance of cheap electrons during the day thanks to PV, market forces should drive more slow "destination charges" in places like public carparks for PT and work etc.
  Carnot Minister for Railways

I have to laugh at Aussies paying a giant premium for big V8 diesel Landcruisers before they go V6/hybrid:
https://www.caradvice.com.au/933794/2021-toyota-landcruiser-200-series-prices-surge-beyond-150000-as-supply-dries-up/
  RustyRick Chief Commissioner

Location: South West Vic
I see the EV charging network now the same as LPG in the mid '80s. If you were driving around the major cities, or going between Melbourne and Sydney, LPG was feasible. Anywhere else, careful planning was required.

The cost of vehicles is still a killer. The point above that manufacturers are making them high spec models is true. That doesn't help.
  YM-Mundrabilla Minister for Railways

Location: Mundrabilla but I'd rather be in Narvik
Think that I will stick with infernal combustion.Smile
  RTT_Rules Oliver Bullied, CME

Location: Dubai UAE
I have to laugh at Aussies paying a giant premium for big V8 diesel Landcruisers before they go V6/hybrid:
https://www.caradvice.com.au/933794/2021-toyota-landcruiser-200-series-prices-surge-beyond-150000-as-supply-dries-up/
Carnot
Yeah, friend in Sydney did the same. But to be fair he was switching from an Audi after finally realizing Audi's are a money pit. He was just thankful his wife stopped him buying his and her Audi's because she thought it looked "dorkish". So I don't think he was avoiding V6 hybrid, rather just buying similar to what he had in Dubai where he had the American Toyota big wagon, Sequoia.
  RTT_Rules Oliver Bullied, CME

Location: Dubai UAE
I see the EV charging network now the same as LPG in the mid '80s. If you were driving around the major cities, or going between Melbourne and Sydney, LPG was feasible. Anywhere else, careful planning was required.

The cost of vehicles is still a killer. The point above that manufacturers are making them high spec models is true. That doesn't help.
RustyRick
The manufacturers are making high spec cars because the technology is still expensive and no one will be lining up to buy a $50,000 EV Corolla.  Happened in the past with EFI and other fuel saving and improved driver experience.

Tesla lowers the price of their cars almost annually as their battery technology gets cheaper.

Give it about 4-5 years, there is a mass of economy and middle market EV's coming to the market.
  RTT_Rules Oliver Bullied, CME

Location: Dubai UAE
Think that I will stick with infernal combustion.Smile
YM-Mundrabilla
Nothing wrong with that, they will be around until at least 2040, although the number of models available after 2030 is predicted to be a fraction of today with many manufacturers having ceased all ICE (internal combustion) and sales completely by 2030. A small number such as Volvo, Jag etc have already or will in near future cease any further development in ICE and indicated their intention to stop making ICE cars within the next few years.

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