The corona virus COVID-19

 
  djf01 Chief Commissioner

I doubt you appreciate is just how normal life is in Australia at the moment.  
...
Once the willing portion of the population is vaxed, the requirement for international travelers will be implemented and the doors will open.
RTT_Rules

I was right, you don't appreciate how normal life is in Australia.

This "we have to open our borders" rubbish, and it is rubbish, is from the perspective of an ex-pat living in an international travel hub.

Sponsored advertisement

  Valvegear Oliver Bullied, CME

Location: Richmond Vic
Quite frankly, I'm struggling to see the purpose of our mass vaccination program.
"djf01"
Are you serious? What do you think stopped smallpox? What do think has polio controlled?

We know how to reduce, find and eliminate outbreaks.
"djf01"
We have not eliminated outbreaks; we have dealt with them. Mass vaccinations means that that nobody catches the disease, and therefore can't pass it on; that's elimination! (see smallpox above). When I first went to Singapore in 1977 it was "no smallpox vaccination = no entry". That has long gone.
  djf01 Chief Commissioner

Quite frankly, I'm struggling to see the purpose of our mass vaccination program.
Are you serious? What do you think stopped smallpox? What do think has polio controlled?
...
Mass vaccinations means that that nobody catches the disease, and therefore can't pass it on; that's elimination!
Valvegear

This is my biggest fear with our Vaccination program: people have that expectation: it will eliminate COVID.

The problem is the AZ COVID vaccine has a similar efficacy to Flu vaccine.  Has the Flu vaccine eliminated the Flu?
  RTT_Rules Oliver Bullied, CME

Location: Dubai UAE
Quite frankly, I'm struggling to see the purpose of our mass vaccination program.
Are you serious? What do you think stopped smallpox? What do think has polio controlled?
...
Mass vaccinations means that that nobody catches the disease, and therefore can't pass it on; that's elimination!

This is my biggest fear with our Vaccination program: people have that expectation: it will eliminate COVID.

The problem is the AZ COVID vaccine has a similar efficacy to Flu vaccine.  Has the Flu vaccine eliminated the Flu?
djf01
The COVID Vaccines main function is not to eliminate the disease, but to stop you getting seriously ill or dying.
  RTT_Rules Oliver Bullied, CME

Location: Dubai UAE
I doubt you appreciate is just how normal life is in Australia at the moment.  
...
Once the willing portion of the population is vaxed, the requirement for international travelers will be implemented and the doors will open.

I was right, you don't appreciate how normal life is in Australia.

This "we have to open our borders" rubbish, and it is rubbish, is from the perspective of an ex-pat living in an international travel hub.
djf01
No, your not.

Do you appreciate what the current policy is doing to 100,000's of people and their families. The Quarantine has its place, but its not longterm solution and its use as a solution has passed its expiry date and alternative means to achieve similar goals needs to be implemented for the rest of the year until the borders fully open.

Once again, Stockholm Syndrome seems to have set in.

This expat and his family are full vaxed as is 50% of the population who live here and you are???
  djf01 Chief Commissioner

Quite frankly, I'm struggling to see the purpose of our mass vaccination program.
Are you serious? What do you think stopped smallpox? What do think has polio controlled?
...
Mass vaccinations means that that nobody catches the disease, and therefore can't pass it on; that's elimination!
...
The COVID Vaccines main function is not to eliminate the disease, but to stop you getting seriously ill or dying.
RTT_Rules

And this is the problem.  @Valvegear things the vaccines will eliminate COVID.  
@RTTyphoidMary_Rules thinks it means now SinoVax has turned him into a likely asymptomatic carrier he'll be able to come and go as he pleases.

So which is it?  Eliminate COVID?  or Open borders?  

@RTT_Rules, I think you should just stick to telling us how good things are over in the UAE, rather than how bad things are here, and we'll make up our own minds about our borders.
  Valvegear Oliver Bullied, CME

Location: Richmond Vic
The problem is the AZ COVID vaccine has a similar efficacy to Flu vaccine.  Has the Flu vaccine eliminated the Flu?
dfj01
Has there been a mass vaccination program to counter flu? Has the flu killed like COVID has? Short answer to both: No.
  djf01 Chief Commissioner

The problem is the AZ COVID vaccine has a similar efficacy to Flu vaccine.  Has the Flu vaccine eliminated the Flu?
Has there been a mass vaccination program to counter flu? Has the flu killed like COVID has? Short answer to both: No.
Valvegear
Flu usually kills more people in Australia each year than COVID has.  But the reason we don't mass vaccinate against Flu is the Flu vaccines don't work well enough.  Instead, Flu vaccine is used to minimize harm in susceptible people.
  RTT_Rules Oliver Bullied, CME

Location: Dubai UAE
Quite frankly, I'm struggling to see the purpose of our mass vaccination program.
Are you serious? What do you think stopped smallpox? What do think has polio controlled?
...
Mass vaccinations means that that nobody catches the disease, and therefore can't pass it on; that's elimination!
...
The COVID Vaccines main function is not to eliminate the disease, but to stop you getting seriously ill or dying.

And this is the problem.  @Valvegear things the vaccines will eliminate COVID.  
@RTTyphoidMary_Rules thinks it means now SinoVax has turned him into a likely asymptomatic carrier he'll be able to come and go as he pleases.

So which is it?  Eliminate COVID?  or Open borders?  

@RTT_Rules, I think you should just stick to telling us how good things are over in the UAE, rather than how bad things are here, and we'll make up our own minds about our borders.
djf01
I didn't get Sinovax and I wouldn't be concerned if I had.

You think you are going to live in your open prison for ever, think again!

Do you think Australia can and will afford to be left behind while the rest of the world returns to some form of normality. How long do you think the govt will get away with retaining a Nth Korean style border when citizens cannot leave and externals only allowed in in a  limited basis, this is the type of thing that leads to revolutions.  

The govt has told you you have until Oct to get jabbed accordingly to the schedule, beyond that its open border. Not vaxed, you get sick, good luck to you.

The vaccine greatly reduced the likely hood of transmission, the symptoms and duration someone is ill should they get ill.

One thing for sure, they govt will need to replace the CV-19 Dr with psychiatrists to treat those clearly suffering from Stockholm syndrome.
  djf01 Chief Commissioner

@RTT_Rules, I think you should just stick to telling us how good things are over in the UAE, rather than how bad things are here, and we'll make up our own minds about our borders.
I didn't get Sinovax and I wouldn't be concerned if I had.
RTT_Rules


A serious question (though I understand Shane why you might not answer seriously!), I thought from your previous posts UAE citizens got Pfizer, expats like you got the Chinese vaccine. So what did you and your kids get?


Do you think Australia can and will afford to be left behind while the rest of the world returns to some form of normality.
RTT_Rules

Again, you miss the point.  Despite what you claim from your vantage point locked in your cell in the Caliphate, Australia has returned to a very recognisable form of normality.  We are not being left behind, we are way out in front ... for the moment.
  RTT_Rules Oliver Bullied, CME

Location: Dubai UAE
I didn't get Sinovax and I wouldn't be concerned if I had.
A serious question (though I understand Shane why you might not answer seriously!), I thought from your previous posts UAE citizens got Pfizer, expats like you got the Chinese vaccine. So what did you and your kids get?
djf01
Its complicated.

UAE is made up of 7 x Emirates, the two money earners are

>Abu Dhabi - Basically the Oil cash cow with close to $1T in the bank. The Oil Super Complex off-shore, which I've seen up close is something to behold and I only saw one of them (fishing) and the one I saw disappeared over the horizon.  

Abu Dhabi also basically funds the smaller Emirates of Fujairah, Ajman, RAK, Umm Al Quwain and to a lessor degree Sharjah which does have some of its own Oil and Gas reserves including on shore almost under the outer part of the city going by the rigs I saw desert bashing last year. Sharjah (the one dry/no pork Emirate) is also basically next to Dubai and lower income place to live if working in Dubai, ie its full of Indian's and Pakistani's.  

>Dubai - which is semi autonomous, Oil and Gas make up less than 10% of its GDP but has most foreign investment and business including banking and finance as well as private real-estate development. Was first Emirate to allow foreigners to buy land/property, but only in designated Free Hold zones, like where I live (I own my villa).

Dubai which did no R&D on vaccines, simply bought Pfizer and more recently AZ and made available to Emiratis with a Dubai Govt health card AND Expats with a Dubai issued Visa. You had to be quick to get Pfitzer as they ran out, but got a 2nd batch more recently.

Abu Dhabi which ran a number of trials using Sinopharm and later Sputnik V and has so far only approved Sinopharm based on Stage 3 trials done in country, not external results. Anyone in the UAE could between Dec and mid Feb go into the SEHA App and make an appointment for Sinopharm.

Abu Dhabi started the first trials using Sinopharm from August 2020, 30,000 people volunteered, they were after 15,000.

While I live in Dubai, my Visa is issued from my original place of work when I started in UAE, Abu Dhabi, hence Sinopharm was the only available vaccine for myself. My wife has her own visa as she works for Worley also based in Abu Dhabi, she also got Sinopharm, but we spaced ourselves a week apart as I'm (healthy) 51 and she is a (healthy) 45, but recovered Breast Cancer Patient from 2017, just in case something went wrong. Both got first dose in Jan, 2nd early Feb.

Knowing what I know now about Sinopharm as I can tell you alot of Aussies in the chat group were not happy to get it, I would not have been so cautious and would have taken both of us in together a few weeks earlier.

The minimum age limit was dropped from 18 to 16y in Jan. My kids are 11 and 15 and not sure if and when it will be lowered but expect so by mid year and yes we are all guinea pigs.

Around 50% of the UAE population (pushing 70 doses per 100) has now received at least 1 dose, the rates have dropped off from 150,000 / day to around 50,000 I assume due to limited supplies as in both Dubai and AD, doses were limited to elder and high risk for about 1mth. Then on news, another shipment being unloaded from Emirates cargo.

UAE govt has also supplied 100% population coverage for Seychelles and another country in East Africa, Ghana?. They just bought the whole country population batch in one order and said here you go, enjoy!

From tomorrow my CV-19 App in UAE will have a Gold Star which means I am 28 days + 2nd dose and will not have to do PCR's every few days to go to Abu Dhabi Emirate, once a week only and less restrictions or no restrictions when leaving and returning to the country and some others friendly with UAE such as Maldives which is basically the main country of choice for UAE residents to go on holidays since Oct last year.
  RTT_Rules Oliver Bullied, CME

Location: Dubai UAE

Again, you miss the point.  Despite what you claim from your vantage point locked in your cell in the Caliphate, Australia has returned to a very recognisable form of normality.  We are not being left behind, we are way out in front ... for the moment.
djf01

Again, you miss the point.  Despite what you claim from your vantage point locked in your cell in the Caliphate, Australia has returned to a very recognisable form of normality.  We are not being left behind, we are way out in front ... for the moment.

1) Its not a Caliphate, quite the opposite. Might be time to stop reading Australian media and actually travel if you genuinely belie this.

2) I'm not locked in, I can leave to travel to +80 countries right now and return without hotel quarantine, but PCR may or may not be required for travel in either direction

3)  You have similar rights to Nth Koreans, you cannot leave and no one can come in. If that's normality then Stockholm Syndrome is well established.

If Australia remains closed for business travel for much longer it will be left behind, my place of work and I know others have already excluded Australian companies from projects because their people cannot or will not leave. Yes they can get permission to leave for work usually need to prove you will be gone for 3mths, but you don't go for a weeks work and spend another 10-15 weeks waiting for a flight home, which is frequently cancelled at the last minute.

Australian companies cannot recruit certain skills currently lacking or in limited supply in Australia, thus affecting their business. For example a company in Melbourne is trying to recruit a Kiwi based in Dubai for a role for a project that unless they can fill they skill set, they will loose the contract to off-shore.

Tourist industry in NQ and other locations popular for international's especially cashed up is suffering.

I know of Australian's who have opted out of taking jobs OS because they don't want to leave not knowing if they can return for Xmas or in an emergency.

I know Australian's who out of country cannot even travel home to support dying relatives or bury dead parents / siblings / off-spring. A close friend of ours from Dubai has hit mental and financial rock bottom for unrelated reasons living in Perth. Normally we would travel there to try and help her, but nope. We can only hope she is still alive in 10-12mth as her health is deteriorating.

We have Australian's here who have died of CV and other causes and while their bodies can be sent home, their families cannot travel with them.  Can you imagine your husband died and you cannot take him home to bury for maybe 3-4mths, that's what one Australian lady here is facing right now. Stuck with kids on her own, no family is allowed to come, kids dead husband and no income.

Please don't confuse any of above that I disagree with hotel quarantine for the past or present and near future. However the issues are
- unreliable ability to travel as and when needed
- Flights are not fixed and frequently get bumped, thank Dan the Man for most of this
- Excessive delays in ability to return
- Failure to use PCR for checking of travelling public
- Failure to use other means such as tracking of individuals using house arrest style technology to enable people to stay in private accomdatation
- Delays in vaccination program
- Slow roll out of the Vaccination program

If after reading all of this you still believe in fairy tales that mass rollout of CV-19 Vax is not required in Australia and that the borders should not be reopened in a controlled manner, then you need a real wake up call.
  don_dunstan The Ghost of George Stephenson

Location: Adelaide proud
If Australia remains closed for business travel for much longer it will be left behind, my place of work and I know others have already excluded Australian companies from projects because their people cannot or will not leave. Yes they can get permission to leave for work usually need to prove you will be gone for 3mths, but you don't go for a weeks work and spend another 10-15 weeks waiting for a flight home, which is frequently cancelled at the last minute.

Australian companies cannot recruit certain skills currently lacking or in limited supply in Australia, thus affecting their business. For example a company in Melbourne is trying to recruit a Kiwi based in Dubai for a role for a project that unless they can fill they skill set, they will loose the contract to off-shore.

Tourist industry in NQ and other locations popular for international's especially cashed up is suffering.

I know of Australian's who have opted out of taking jobs OS because they don't want to leave not knowing if they can return for Xmas or in an emergency.

I know Australian's who out of country cannot even travel home to support dying relatives or bury dead parents / siblings / off-spring. A close friend of ours from Dubai has hit mental and financial rock bottom for unrelated reasons living in Perth. Normally we would travel there to try and help her, but nope. We can only hope she is still alive in 10-12mth as her health is deteriorating.

We have Australian's here who have died of CV and other causes and while their bodies can be sent home, their families cannot travel with them.  Can you imagine your husband died and you cannot take him home to bury for maybe 3-4mths, that's what one Australian lady here is facing right now. Stuck with kids on her own, no family is allowed to come, kids dead husband and no income.

Please don't confuse any of above that I disagree with hotel quarantine for the past or present and near future. However the issues are
- unreliable ability to travel as and when needed
- Flights are not fixed and frequently get bumped, thank Dan the Man for most of this
- Excessive delays in ability to return
- Failure to use PCR for checking of travelling public
- Failure to use other means such as tracking of individuals using house arrest style technology to enable people to stay in private accomdatation
- Delays in vaccination program
- Slow roll out of the Vaccination program

If after reading all of this you still believe in fairy tales that mass rollout of CV-19 Vax is not required in Australia and that the borders should not be reopened in a controlled manner, then you need a real wake up call.
RTT_Rules
NONE of this is any reason to force a vaccination on people in the nation of Australia. None of it.

We managed to survive this thing largely unscathed apart from Melbourne - and you seriously think we should open up to the world because people like you who are transnational can't travel freely? My heart bleeds for you - too bad you can't come back here without quarantine. Here's an idea - if you wanted free and easy access to Australia perhaps you should never have left to begin with.

Our economy is thriving, we just recorded our highest GDP in decades - why do we need international tourists and borders re-opened - just so potential COVID19 carriers like you can come here and visit again?

No thanks.
  billybaxter Chief Commissioner

Location: Bosnia Park, Fairfield
And for Australians who want to go for an overseas for business or pleasure? Surely you'd accept that they should be forced to be vaccinated or go into quarantine complete with the 'bend over swab' on return. Would you accept putting this in place at a state level too? I think Western Australians, with their fantastic economy, would be only too happy to forego mandatory vaccination if the only cost was to not have visits from filthy Victorians and South Australians etc. Australia, in this case as in many others, would be wise to follow the good example set by our Chinese friends and demand strict control on all entry and exit from the national territory.
  justarider Chief Commissioner

Location: Free at last, free at last
And for Australians who want to go for an overseas for business or pleasure? Surely you'd accept that they should be forced to be vaccinated or go into quarantine complete with the 'bend over swab' on return.
billybaxter
Absolutely!

A more pleasant test though.
That particular one is a Chinese idiosyncrasy . Still very angry about the war and will take any opportunity to stick it up the Japanese.
  RedEyeExpress Junior Train Controller

Location: Melbourne
RTT_Rules, Ghana is in West Africa but tbank you for the UAE overview. Never knew most of that, especially  about the smaller Emirates.
  RTT_Rules Oliver Bullied, CME

Location: Dubai UAE
NONE of this is any reason to force a vaccination on people in the nation of Australia. None of it.

We managed to survive this thing largely unscathed apart from Melbourne - and you seriously think we should open up to the world because people like you who are transnational can't travel freely? My heart bleeds for you - too bad you can't come back here without quarantine. Here's an idea - if you wanted free and easy access to Australia perhaps you should never have left to begin with.

Our economy is thriving, we just recorded our highest GDP in decades - why do we need international tourists and borders re-opened - just so potential COVID19 carriers like you can come here and visit again?

No thanks.
don_dunstan
Stupid comment Don, has anyone at any stage forced this vaccine on you or proposed to do so Don?

its interesting to see you state "largely unscathed" and "open up" yet in other posts you comment as if Australia was fully exposed.

"Our economy is thriving, we just recorded our highest GDP in decades - why do we need international tourists and borders re-opened - just so potential COVID19 carriers like you can come here and visit again?"

What an absolute hypocrite! Any other day of the week you are telling us Australia is going down the gurgler and you constantly go on about borrowed money and federal hand outs buying jobs.

You are also wrong (as usual) Australia's GDP maxed out a few years back.
  RTT_Rules Oliver Bullied, CME

Location: Dubai UAE
RTT_Rules, Ghana is in West Africa but tbank you for the UAE overview. Never knew most of that, especially  about the smaller Emirates.
RedEyeExpress
Yeah thanks my bad, UAE has a few significant business interests there and recruiting some lower paid workers from Ghana in lieu of usual India, Pakistan and Philippines.
  Aaron The Ghost of George Stephenson

Location: University of Adelaide SA
Let’s hope for a 90% vaccination level!

The 85% vaccinated figure is on pretty solid ground for accuracy.

Most international data is pointing to about a 3.5 infection spread per infection in the open community (this number is generally denoted Ro, so Ro=3.5). That seems low for Australia, but most of our data is skewed due to the Victorian disaster.

So to calculate the required proportion of protected people in the community to eliminate virus spread we use the formula:
P=1-1/Ro so from our Ro above that’s a pretty trivial calculation and yields about 0.714 - that does assume 100% vaccine efficacy, so we adjust for that.

If our vaccine efficacy is Ve then our formula for the required proportion for herd immunity becomes: P=[1-1/Ro]/Ve and we have Ve about 0.85 so that now yields P=0.840

If we achieve a P of 0.90 we are going to be just fine.

Points of order.  

  • Most studies I've seen on this say R0 = 2.5 not 3.5 (except variants).
djf01
We don't usually automatically go with the 'best case' solution, 3.5 is the upper limit used internationally, as I said in previous posts Australia (well Victoria) demonstrated an Ro of about 7.
  Aaron The Ghost of George Stephenson

Location: University of Adelaide SA
The problem is the AZ COVID vaccine has a similar efficacy to Flu vaccine.  Has the Flu vaccine eliminated the Flu?
Has there been a mass vaccination program to counter flu? Has the flu killed like COVID has? Short answer to both: No.
Flu usually kills more people in Australia each year than COVID has.
djf01
Only because of the way we have treated COVID, if we let COVID run like we do flu we would have watched COVID make influenza look like a rank beginner at killing people.

But the reason we don't mass vaccinate against Flu is the Flu vaccines don't work well enough.  Instead, Flu vaccine is used to minimize harm in susceptible people.
djf01
No, the reason we don't mass vaccinate against influenza is primarily because we don't need to, we go with the 'target market' approach. Secondary reasoning surrounds there being multiple subtypes of influenza A, and further multiple clades within those. If we can get COVID under control (there is little reason to worry excessively about flu if COVID is out of control) success with mRNA vaccines may lead to development for a case to target eliminate influenza A.

I think other viruses like Ebola are a more worthwhile target for elimination through vaccination though.
  don_dunstan The Ghost of George Stephenson

Location: Adelaide proud
NONE of this is any reason to force a vaccination on people in the nation of Australia. None of it.

We managed to survive this thing largely unscathed apart from Melbourne - and you seriously think we should open up to the world because people like you who are transnational can't travel freely? My heart bleeds for you - too bad you can't come back here without quarantine. Here's an idea - if you wanted free and easy access to Australia perhaps you should never have left to begin with.

Our economy is thriving, we just recorded our highest GDP in decades - why do we need international tourists and borders re-opened - just so potential COVID19 carriers like you can come here and visit again?

No thanks.
Stupid comment Don, has anyone at any stage forced this vaccine on you or proposed to do so Don?

its interesting to see you state "largely unscathed" and "open up" yet in other posts you comment as if Australia was fully exposed.

"Our economy is thriving, we just recorded our highest GDP in decades - why do we need international tourists and borders re-opened - just so potential COVID19 carriers like you can come here and visit again?"

What an absolute hypocrite! Any other day of the week you are telling us Australia is going down the gurgler and you constantly go on about borrowed money and federal hand outs buying jobs.

You are also wrong (as usual) Australia's GDP maxed out a few years back.
RTT_Rules
Sour grapes, you just wish you were back here - its paradise by comparison to much of the world.

Sure we're in heaps of debt but we only need to start splitting atoms or burning coal here like any normal, sensible nation would do and we'd have infinite riches to make us the most prosperous place on earth. But rank stupidity forbids us from using the carbon-free reliable option AND the carbon emitting one. So we have to put up with rubbish windmills and foreign-made solar panels that couldn't power a candle let alone a grid.
  Aaron The Ghost of George Stephenson

Location: University of Adelaide SA
A serious question
djf01
Here's one for you.

Caliphate
djf01
Do you even know what this word means?

With some equally serious follow ons.

Can you name a single country where a Caliph resides?

It's a 'NO' to both isn't it?
  Myrtone Chief Commissioner

Location: North Carlton, Melbourne, Victoria
And for Australians who want to go for an overseas for business or pleasure? Surely you'd accept that they should be forced to be vaccinated or go into quarantine complete with the 'bend over swab' on return. Would you accept putting this in place at a state level too? I think Western Australians, with their fantastic economy, would be only too happy to forego mandatory vaccination if the only cost was to not have visits from filthy Victorians and South Australians etc. Australia, in this case as in many others, would be wise to follow the good example set by our Chinese friends and demand strict control on all entry and exit from the national territory.
billybaxter
Since you mentioned Western Australia, they ought to be praised for 10 months free of community transmission, though even South Australia, along with Queensland, Tasmania, like New Zealand, all managed fine without any part being locked down for the best part of 2020. No place in New South Wales, Queensland, South Australia or Western Australia has ever had a curfew, at least not infection related, and during no part of that year have any of these states had limits on how far people living there could travel from their homes.
It's not just because of their quarantine, they also addressed the problem wherever and whenever there was an outbreak.
  billybaxter Chief Commissioner
  lsrailfan Chief Commissioner

Location: Somewhere you're not
I just read from a comment on a Skynews thread on Youtube, that Greg Hunt's illness may be as a result of a side effect from the Covid Vaccine, he has Cellulitis, Cellulitis is a side effect of the Vaccine apparently, according to page 20 of this document - COVID-19_AstraZeneca_Vaccine_Analysis_Print.pdf (publishing.service.gov.uk)Is it true, I have no idea....

Sponsored advertisement

Display from: