The 'renewable' energy thread -

 
  don_dunstan The Ghost of George Stephenson

Location: Adelaide proud
For the Texas bit, since I work in the Power industry in a global role, I was able to get some first hand accounts of one fossil plant affected by the weather. Field instruments completely frozen, plant unable to operate.
arctic
That's not the fault of fossil fuels - that's the fault of the operators to adequately weather-proof.

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  Carnot Minister for Railways

I have long been a critic of Energiewende and it seems as though the hühner are coming home to roost.

German language source (unsurprising) but I had a german speaking colleague interpret it for me, but chrome will probably do a good enough translate for you.

https://www.welt.de/wirtschaft/article229449033/Energieversorgung-Bundesrechnungshof-warnt-vor-Stromluecke.html?cid=socialmedia.twitter.shared.web&fbclid=IwAR3zbeNILfeQs_uC2YF5etNknf8AI0g6XESacJjD-FSojv-7x0LaTQhwyFM

This is the second time the German Federal Audit Office has had to heavily criticise energiewende, and it’s quite damning. Losing nuclear ought to have been Germany’s LAST ambition, not it’s first.


Dummköpfe.
Aaron
The funniest thing is that they're a lot more dependent on Russian Gas when the sun don't shine and wind don't blow....

Another win for Putin.
  don_dunstan The Ghost of George Stephenson

Location: Adelaide proud
I have long been a critic of Energiewende and it seems as though the hühner are coming home to roost.

German language source (unsurprising) but I had a german speaking colleague interpret it for me, but chrome will probably do a good enough translate for you.

https://www.welt.de/wirtschaft/article229449033/Energieversorgung-Bundesrechnungshof-warnt-vor-Stromluecke.html?cid=socialmedia.twitter.shared.web&fbclid=IwAR3zbeNILfeQs_uC2YF5etNknf8AI0g6XESacJjD-FSojv-7x0LaTQhwyFM

This is the second time the German Federal Audit Office has had to heavily criticise energiewende, and it’s quite damning. Losing nuclear ought to have been Germany’s LAST ambition, not it’s first.


Dummköpfe.
Aaron
Careful, you'll have the sunshine-and-breezes-can-meet-all-our-needs mob coming down on you.

Although apparently coal generation to keep a desalination plant going is all A-OKAY with these people.
  Aaron The Ghost of George Stephenson

Location: University of Adelaide SA
I have long been a critic of Energiewende and it seems as though the hühner are coming home to roost.

German language source (unsurprising) but I had a german speaking colleague interpret it for me, but chrome will probably do a good enough translate for you.

https://www.welt.de/wirtschaft/article229449033/Energieversorgung-Bundesrechnungshof-warnt-vor-Stromluecke.html?cid=socialmedia.twitter.shared.web&fbclid=IwAR3zbeNILfeQs_uC2YF5etNknf8AI0g6XESacJjD-FSojv-7x0LaTQhwyFM

This is the second time the German Federal Audit Office has had to heavily criticise energiewende, and it’s quite damning. Losing nuclear ought to have been Germany’s LAST ambition, not it’s first.


Dummköpfe.
The funniest thing is that they're a lot more dependent on Russian Gas when the sun don't shine and wind don't blow....

Another win for Putin.
Carnot
Not to mention, Russian oil.
  Carnot Minister for Railways

I have long been a critic of Energiewende and it seems as though the hühner are coming home to roost.

German language source (unsurprising) but I had a german speaking colleague interpret it for me, but chrome will probably do a good enough translate for you.

https://www.welt.de/wirtschaft/article229449033/Energieversorgung-Bundesrechnungshof-warnt-vor-Stromluecke.html?cid=socialmedia.twitter.shared.web&fbclid=IwAR3zbeNILfeQs_uC2YF5etNknf8AI0g6XESacJjD-FSojv-7x0LaTQhwyFM

This is the second time the German Federal Audit Office has had to heavily criticise energiewende, and it’s quite damning. Losing nuclear ought to have been Germany’s LAST ambition, not it’s first.


Dummköpfe.
The funniest thing is that they're a lot more dependent on Russian Gas when the sun don't shine and wind don't blow....

Another win for Putin.
Not to mention, Russian oil.
Aaron
Germany is also closing down some older coal fired power plants this year.  Apparently that was later than originally forecast due to the quicker end of nuclear (17 plants already, all gone by 2022) to please the Greens.  Kicked an own-goal there....
  DirtyBallast Chief Commissioner

Location: I was here first. You're only visiting.
I used to be an avid visitor to production/consumption websites such as NEMwatch and electricitymap.org, but less so nowadays.

Consequently what I hadn't noticed over the past year or so was the decline in wholesale electricity prices. Sure, I've read reports that have quoted decreasing prices, but have not seen or searched for a graphical representation over time of the overall picture, and have not been interested enough to build my own.

The headline of the following article pricked my interest today and I was pleasantly surprised while reading it to see the 5 year trend of wholesale electricity prices in South Australia:
Electricity prices are falling. So why are Canberrans' household power bills about to rise? - ABC News


Makes a mockery of claims by some that renewables are not worth the bother.
  wobert Chief Commissioner

Location: Half way between Propodolla and Kinimakatka
Funny thing DB, I got a letter from the electricity mob the other day, the price of power (cant find it now) was to drop by a cent or cent and a half. Or something like that, but the delivery charge was going up. The screaming headline was something along the lines of how the great and the good were making it possible to save $ 250 a year. As I sat there in sheer wonderment at their brilliance.
  don_dunstan The Ghost of George Stephenson

Location: Adelaide proud
I used to be an avid visitor to production/consumption websites such as NEMwatch and electricitymap.org, but less so nowadays.

Consequently what I hadn't noticed over the past year or so was the decline in wholesale electricity prices. Sure, I've read reports that have quoted decreasing prices, but have not seen or searched for a graphical representation over time of the overall picture, and have not been interested enough to build my own.

The headline of the following article pricked my interest today and I was pleasantly surprised while reading it to see the 5 year trend of wholesale electricity prices in South Australia:
Electricity prices are falling. So why are Canberrans' household power bills about to rise? - ABC News


Makes a mockery of claims by some that renewables are not worth the bother.
DirtyBallast
The main problem is that they produce electricity at times that the grid often can't use it - and then when the grid really needs it we have to either fire up our gas or diesel generators (probably the worst option of all in terms of Co2) or import coal-fired electricity from Victoria. Recently SA Power Networks has started dumping solar feed-in from the grid at times that it can't be used - much to the chagrin of people who paid big money to participate in that middle class welfare.

The reality is that on a nice sunny day, not too hot (as we have in SA today) there's plenty of renewable energy being generated but the problem is that its the morning and evening peaks when it's really required - generally at times when the sun has gone to bed for the day. So rooftop solar is making power that simply isn't needed - and then when it is actually needed it can't meet the task.

During a small 'wind drought' that we had earlier this year (a surprisingly frequent occurrence) the wholesale price peaked at $14,000 mw/h and we were in danger of having yet another state-wide blackout because Torrens Island gas peaking plant was having problems at the time and couldn't meet demand.

It's the extremely unreliable nature of renewables at the core of their problem and there's simply no economic solution for storing that energy on the horizon.
  wobert Chief Commissioner

Location: Half way between Propodolla and Kinimakatka
I wonder if there's some kind of storage system that could be developed over time....... oh hang on.
  michaelgm Chief Commissioner

I wonder if there's some kind of storage system that could be developed over time....... oh hang on.
wobert
If you have solar, take advantage of it. IE use it.
Washing M/C on at 0900, dishwasher at 1100, A/C at 1230, before the joint gets too hot.
Modern household gizmos have timers others can be kicked off using wifi.
Reduces your contribution to the peak period.
  Aaron The Ghost of George Stephenson

Location: University of Adelaide SA
I wonder if there's some kind of storage system that could be developed over time....... oh hang on.
wobert
You would be better to wonder if there is sufficient lithium to achieve what you think can be achieved, that there is enough, is very, very far from certain. Chemical storage is not a great solution, forget silver bullets, batteries aren’t even lithium bullets.

You cannot beat the laws of physics, lithium will store what lithium will store, Musk can tell you he’s improved battery storage, but he’s actually somewhere between deluded and lying.

Nuclear with no electron storage requirements is the only thing that can save the planet now.
  Aaron The Ghost of George Stephenson

Location: University of Adelaide SA
I used to be an avid visitor to production/consumption websites such as NEMwatch and electricitymap.org, but less so nowadays.

Consequently what I hadn't noticed over the past year or so was the decline in wholesale electricity prices. Sure, I've read reports that have quoted decreasing prices, but have not seen or searched for a graphical representation over time of the overall picture, and have not been interested enough to build my own.

The headline of the following article pricked my interest today and I was pleasantly surprised while reading it to see the 5 year trend of wholesale electricity prices in South Australia:
Electricity prices are falling. So why are Canberrans' household power bills about to rise? - ABC News


Makes a mockery of claims by some that renewables are not worth the bother.
The main problem is that they produce electricity at times that the grid often can't use it - and then when the grid really needs it we have to either fire up our gas or diesel generators (probably the worst option of all in terms of Co2) or import coal-fired electricity from Victoria. Recently SA Power Networks has started dumping solar feed-in from the grid at times that it can't be used - much to the chagrin of people who paid big money to participate in that middle class welfare.

The reality is that on a nice sunny day, not too hot (as we have in SA today) there's plenty of renewable energy being generated but the problem is that its the morning and evening peaks when it's really required - generally at times when the sun has gone to bed for the day. So rooftop solar is making power that simply isn't needed - and then when it is actually needed it can't meet the task.

During a small 'wind drought' that we had earlier this year (a surprisingly frequent occurrence) the wholesale price peaked at $14,000 mw/h and we were in danger of having yet another state-wide blackout because Torrens Island gas peaking plant was having problems at the time and couldn't meet demand.

It's the extremely unreliable nature of renewables at the core of their problem and there's simply no economic solution for storing that energy on the horizon.
don_dunstan
Today? In South Australia? I am here, pretty sure there’s approximately zero wind production and we are spinning gas, whilst drawing ‘brown’ electrons from the batteries to shore up the grid too.
  don_dunstan The Ghost of George Stephenson

Location: Adelaide proud
Today? In South Australia? I am here, pretty sure there’s approximately zero wind production and we are spinning gas, whilst drawing ‘brown’ electrons from the batteries to shore up the grid too.
Aaron
NEM says that solar is presently meeting an astonishing 54% of our generation (293 m/w) but wind is less than one percent at 4 m/w - yet another 'wind drought'. Gas is currently producing 45% of total generation (246 m/w) but that's still not enough to power South Australia right now and we're importing another 180 m/w from Victoria (read "dirty brown coal").

So if you were charging an electric car today in SA around two thirds to three quarters of those electrons are from fossil fuels.
  don_dunstan The Ghost of George Stephenson

Location: Adelaide proud
At this moment, (7/4/21 13:00) solar and wind are producing 11% of Australia's total electricity generation while coal is providing around 80% of our power nationally.
  don_dunstan The Ghost of George Stephenson

Location: Adelaide proud
I wonder if there's some kind of storage system that could be developed over time....... oh hang on.
You would be better to wonder if there is sufficient lithium to achieve what you think can be achieved, that there is enough, is very, very far from certain. Chemical storage is not a great solution, forget silver bullets, batteries aren’t even lithium bullets.

You cannot beat the laws of physics, lithium will store what lithium will store, Musk can tell you he’s improved battery storage, but he’s actually somewhere between deluded and lying.

Nuclear with no electron storage requirements is the only thing that can save the planet now.
Aaron
If you believe in the narrative that carbon dioxide is somehow a poison that will destroy the planet then yes, nuclear is really the only solution.
  Aaron The Ghost of George Stephenson

Location: University of Adelaide SA
Today? In South Australia? I am here, pretty sure there’s approximately zero wind production and we are spinning gas, whilst drawing ‘brown’ electrons from the batteries to shore up the grid too.
NEM says that solar is presently meeting an astonishing 54% of our generation (293 m/w) but wind is less than one percent at 4 m/w - yet another 'wind drought'. Gas is currently producing 45% of total generation (246 m/w) but that's still not enough to power South Australia right now and we're importing another 180 m/w from Victoria (read "dirty brown coal").

So if you were charging an electric car today in SA around two thirds to three quarters of those electrons are from fossil fuels.
don_dunstan
Wow. I didn’t look to see it was that bad.

Guaranteed that 0% of those championing ‘renewables’ would be putting their homes/businesses up to be among the 45% of consumers that need to go without electrons to sustain 100% ‘green’.

For ANY form of storage to work, first, you must have sufficient excess daily to put in, it is exceptionally rare that even in SA we have enough excess to worry about storage.

Just in case there is doubt, I am more than happy to have a 2GW NPP within 20km of my house, even closer though sadly it would be only sensible (operationally, not for ANY other reason) to have it further away, AND cheerfully accept my house being one of the first to accept an energy cut if the plant could not sustain above 1600MW. In return, SA presently has 2.138GW of wind, and I would expect every proponent of ‘renewables’ to accept an energy cut when wind production couldn’t meet 650MW.
  Aaron The Ghost of George Stephenson

Location: University of Adelaide SA
I wonder if there's some kind of storage system that could be developed over time....... oh hang on.
You would be better to wonder if there is sufficient lithium to achieve what you think can be achieved, that there is enough, is very, very far from certain. Chemical storage is not a great solution, forget silver bullets, batteries aren’t even lithium bullets.

You cannot beat the laws of physics, lithium will store what lithium will store, Musk can tell you he’s improved battery storage, but he’s actually somewhere between deluded and lying.

Nuclear with no electron storage requirements is the only thing that can save the planet now.
If you believe in the narrative that carbon dioxide is somehow a poison that will destroy the planet then yes, nuclear is really the only solution.
don_dunstan
I don’t have time to watch it, but could someone let me know if SA or Germany ever go more ‘green’ than France? Or even if in environmentally conscious Canada, if Alberta ever goes more green than Ontario? Don’t waste too much time looking, I know they won’t.

https://www.electricitymap.org/map
  wobert Chief Commissioner

Location: Half way between Propodolla and Kinimakatka
I seem to remember a couple of years ago( could be a few more) we were all arguing about where technology was going to take us as in power generation, storage electric vehicles and whatknot. A lot of the predictions and forward planning was pointing  to somewhere around 2030 being the time frame where things really started to take shape. Yet here we are, nearly a decade earlier most of the predictions are baring fruit

https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2021/mar/29/renewables-plus-batteries-offer-australia-the-same-energy-security-as-coal-research-finds


Where we end up in the next decade is going to be amazing.
  wobert Chief Commissioner

Location: Half way between Propodolla and Kinimakatka
Even the rednecks at my local are talking excitedly about electric cars, an absolute no no 12 months ago.
  don_dunstan The Ghost of George Stephenson

Location: Adelaide proud
Even the rednecks at my local are talking excitedly about electric cars, an absolute no no 12 months ago.
wobert
I seem to remember a couple of years ago( could be a few more) we were all arguing about where technology was going to take us as in power generation, storage electric vehicles and whatknot. A lot of the predictions and forward planning was pointing  to somewhere around 2030 being the time frame where things really started to take shape. Yet here we are, nearly a decade earlier most of the predictions are baring fruit

https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2021/mar/29/renewables-plus-batteries-offer-australia-the-same-energy-security-as-coal-research-finds


Where we end up in the next decade is going to be amazing.
wobert
Yeah but I suspect you're letting your evangelical zeal for something outrun the reality of the whole thing as Aaron was pointing out earlier. There's really been no sudden recent surge in technological developments that are paradigm-shifting. Electric cars are heavily subsidised at all levels including the government directly providing the shiny new 3-phase 'filling stations' popping up all over Australia. And yet they're still roughly a third to twice as expensive as a new internal combustion vehicle - much as I like Elon I think he's dreaming if he thinks his 'pickup truck' or 'heavy artic' are going to be viable.

Its the ingredients, the life-span and the actual practicality of the things that worries me - even the head of AGL said that scaled battery storage for the national grid was still impossible and would simply cost way too much for our nation to afford. Now this is from the head of a company that has significant 'green' energy interests and would directly benefit from (even more) government investment in storage. But even he's saying "can't be done".

I've read several articles recently suggesting the rare earth minerals, copper, cobalt, lithium etc etc. that are necessary for each and every electric car - those things are all going to run out on commercially mine-able quantities before we get even halfway toward changing the entire internal combustion global car fleet. So internal combustion is not going anywhere in the next few decades - electric simply wont' end up being scale-able.

I know this will attract a long lecture from "RTT_Rules" but the above is the long and the short of it and we can never, ever reasonably expect a full electric fleet - probably not for twenty or thirty years at least or unless there's some kind of a physics-bending breakthrough.
  wobert Chief Commissioner

Location: Half way between Propodolla and Kinimakatka
The same tired old arguments  Don, Did you whinge and moan when the railways took over from Cobb&Co, or the Elon Musk of his time Henry Ford started mass production of the horseless carriage, and putting all those farriers, wheelwrights and all the coopers out of work. I think that's the same old tired response I gave you several years ago. You really are stuck in some long distant past, and the world is moving on.
  don_dunstan The Ghost of George Stephenson

Location: Adelaide proud
The same tired old arguments  Don, Did you whinge and moan when the railways took over from Cobb&Co, or the Elon Musk of his time Henry Ford started mass production of the horseless carriage, and putting all those farriers, wheelwrights and all the coopers out of work. I think that's the same old tired response I gave you several years ago. You really are stuck in some long distant past, and the world is moving on.
wobert
Wobert, really I don't mean to pop people's balloons but I do it all the time for some reason.

Electric will be a large segment but we also have to realise that planet has limited ability to supply lots of those rare(r) minerals that by necessity have to go into things like mobile phones, computers and electric cars et al. It will hit its limits at some stage and they won't be able to accomplish the noble goal of zero-everything.

No free lunches; hydrocarbons are going to prove irreplaceable in some tasks, that's just what will happen. Either we admit that we have to keep burning coal to maintain the luxury of consumer-driven electricity OR we go nuclear. One of the two.

My own state could have an advantage over the eastern seaboard by being close to the uranium industry already. SA could have a big plant and/or reprocessing/storage industry and send G/W down our existing and being built HV lines to the eastern seaboard - we could keep Alcoa and Whyalla going no problem with on-demand electricty whenever they want it AND we could probably even give free electricity to large employers. We have to get something happening in this state to get industry back here, we have the worst unemployment in Australia, not a competition we want to keep winning.

We have a "Liberal" Premier in this state, why won't he admit we're in an energy crisis in this state and announce a response to the Labor Party's (albeit unachievable) hydrogen storage and generation plant? If we really, really wanted to chop our average 75-80% coal dependency then the only way we could conceivably do that is with some large scale nuclear... maybe off the shelf from the United States (Westinghouse) molten salt type of things.
  RTT_Rules Oliver Bullied, CME

Location: Dubai UAE
My bolted on ICE (petrol/diesel) supporter father sent me this this morning. GM going into EV full throttle.

https://www.msn.com/en-au/news/technology/gm-is-betting-its-electrified-future-on-a-revolutionary-new-battery-system/ar-BB1fmeII?ocid=msedgntp

While there are some here that continue to live in denial, the fact is EV cars are not just here to stay, but here to take over and whether we like it or not, the availability of ICE models will start to disappear from 2025. The so called heavy subsidized claims by Don are BS. Yes there are some govt programs to help build fast charging stations, but are these free to use? The states are jumping on the bandwagon of distance based charging to cover the costs of funding the roads and there are no plans nor should there be for discounted purchase costs.

Don obvious needs an education on what is a rare earth mineral and if thinks Copper is one and if its at risk of running out he's completely disconnected from reality.

Some people also need to understand the basic mining principles that include known reserves are typically based on demand. ie if you have 1Mtpa of demand and have 100Mt of known reserves, then there is usually not alot of money available to look for more.

Worldwide lithium resources identified by USGS started to increase in 2017 owing to continuing exploration. Identified resources in 2016, 2017, 2018, 2019 and 2020 were 41, 47, 54, 62 and 80 million tonnes, respectively
  DirtyBallast Chief Commissioner

Location: I was here first. You're only visiting.
I used to be an avid visitor to production/consumption websites such as NEMwatch and electricitymap.org, but less so nowadays.

Consequently what I hadn't noticed over the past year or so was the decline in wholesale electricity prices. Sure, I've read reports that have quoted decreasing prices, but have not seen or searched for a graphical representation over time of the overall picture, and have not been interested enough to build my own.

The headline of the following article pricked my interest today and I was pleasantly surprised while reading it to see the 5 year trend of wholesale electricity prices in South Australia:
Electricity prices are falling. So why are Canberrans' household power bills about to rise? - ABC News


Makes a mockery of claims by some that renewables are not worth the bother.
The main problem is that they produce electricity at times that the grid often can't use it - and then when the grid really needs it we have to either fire up our gas or diesel generators (probably the worst option of all in terms of Co2) or import coal-fired electricity from Victoria. Recently SA Power Networks has started dumping solar feed-in from the grid at times that it can't be used - much to the chagrin of people who paid big money to participate in that middle class welfare.

The reality is that on a nice sunny day, not too hot (as we have in SA today) there's plenty of renewable energy being generated but the problem is that its the morning and evening peaks when it's really required - generally at times when the sun has gone to bed for the day. So rooftop solar is making power that simply isn't needed - and then when it is actually needed it can't meet the task.

During a small 'wind drought' that we had earlier this year (a surprisingly frequent occurrence) the wholesale price peaked at $14,000 mw/h and we were in danger of having yet another state-wide blackout because Torrens Island gas peaking plant was having problems at the time and couldn't meet demand.

It's the extremely unreliable nature of renewables at the core of their problem and there's simply no economic solution for storing that energy on the horizon.
don_dunstan
Yes, burning filthy expensive gas or oil is sometimes necessary to generate electricity in South Australia. Despite that, trended over time the wholesale price of electricity is falling. It is typically disingenuous of you to suggest that a snapshot of a spike in prices (which probably only lasted five minutes) can be extrapolated to deter people away from accepting renewables as a viable source of electricity generation. As you admit, Torrens Island gas peaking plant couldn't respond when required. Good old reliable fossil fuels, eh? Impossible to predict when it can or cannot produce.

The wholesale price of electricity is falling. The ratio of renewables is increasing. Coincidence?

The wholesale price of electricity is falling.
  DirtyBallast Chief Commissioner

Location: I was here first. You're only visiting.
My bolted on ICE (petrol/diesel) supporter father sent me this this morning. GM going into EV full throttle.

https://www.msn.com/en-au/news/technology/gm-is-betting-its-electrified-future-on-a-revolutionary-new-battery-system/ar-BB1fmeII?ocid=msedgntp

While there are some here that continue to live in denial, the fact is EV cars are not just here to stay, but here to take over and whether we like it or not, the availability of ICE models will start to disappear from 2025. The so called heavy subsidized claims by Don are BS. Yes there are some govt programs to help build fast charging stations, but are these free to use? The states are jumping on the bandwagon of distance based charging to cover the costs of funding the roads and there are no plans nor should there be for discounted purchase costs.

Don obvious needs an education on what is a rare earth mineral and if thinks Copper is one and if its at risk of running out he's completely disconnected from reality.

Some people also need to understand the basic mining principles that include known reserves are typically based on demand. ie if you have 1Mtpa of demand and have 100Mt of known reserves, then there is usually not alot of money available to look for more.

Worldwide lithium resources identified by USGS started to increase in 2017 owing to continuing exploration. Identified resources in 2016, 2017, 2018, 2019 and 2020 were 41, 47, 54, 62 and 80 million tonnes, respectively
RTT_Rules
People think of batteries to store electricity and they automatically think of lithium.

There are other technologies.

Baby steps, but this Australian company is gaining traction at long last:
Redflow signs its largest global battery sale with Anaergia to supply energy storage in California – Redflow

Their expertise to date has centred around stand-alone remote installations to back up telecommunications equipment, for example:
Federal Minister’s visit unveils Redflow and Optus’ Resiliency Initiative for Mobile Networks – Redflow

Plus, their batteries are fully recyclable.

Sponsored advertisement

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