If NSW and VIC have supply problems then we will too - there's no redundancy if the wind drought (for example) is nation-wide.
Consumers are the ones who ultimately pay when there's a gouge - who pays when it spikes to fourteen grand a MW/h? End users ultimately do. Gouges will get worse as supply gets even more unreliable - we had to pay the ultimate price for green-tinged mis-management of our grid here in SA in the dying days of the last Labor government when they had to install 280 MW of 'contingency' diesel power plants spread around the state at great expense - the ultimate admission of a policy failure. And yet that diesel capacity gets turned on with monotonous regularity, only a few months ago running at full capacity to prevent a blackout here in SA.
You were singing the praises of a potential nuclear power plant for South Australia on the previous page saying how great it would be, now someone else comes along and you've bought what he said lock, stock and 'lumpy'?
Be careful not to solve 2040's vision with 2020 technology or even older not accepting where are actually at today, which you are doing.
Its true that SA and Vic in particularly jumped into the deep end with RE and without the regulatory safe guards in place, but we have moved on a fair bit from those F-up days and you can see this in the wholesale prices which are now so cheap that pumped hydro demand has almost dried up.
If we look at the lead up to 2030
Hydro currently provides 7% of all output, but it cycles with demand and will achieve around 25 - 35% of peaking needs post SH 2.0 and BL 2.0.
Wind will be either off-setting or recharging hydro running the grid for around 30 - 40% of the time, but would overlap some with solar. But yes doubling wind generation capacity doesn't help much at very low levels.
Increasing existing solar output by 4 x will basically make the NEM not dependent on other sources of power for 6 - 8h per day.
Base coal will be still around, down from its current 74% of supply to below 50%
Peaking and baseload gas will be around for decades to come.
Despite what others think, chemical battery storage by 2030 will likely exceed 15 - 30 GWh by then. This on the basis that we are approaching 500 MWh in the next year or so and expected to gross 3 - 4 GWh by 2024 using bother grid and domestic.
Even if you got 100% wind/solar with access to hydro/battery, you still will need back up peaking turbine to provide insurance against the issues which you have indicated.
To give an example, as you know aluminium uses alot of power, but we have minimal tolerance to no power for more than 3h. Hence our power stations (5GW) are over sized and we have 48h of diesel in permanent storage against gas line failure. If we do that to protect our production of $6Bpa, then it why wouldn't the grid have this? It has it in part now, Baker Inlet Phase 1 provided 210 MW of peaking capacity, Phase 2 pushes that to 420 MW. As mentioned above battery storage will over the coming years likely exceed 2GWh in Sth Aust. "And yet that diesel capacity gets turned on with monotonous regularity, only a few months ago running at full capacity to prevent a blackout here in SA."
Regrading this comment, both big deal and complete bull $hit.
2020 it provided 0.05% 6.7 GWh of demand, which is 30 hs at maximum output AND Don that was lowest since 2015. For the Tonker Truck sized Sth Aust power grid, what else do you think you need? You want to replace cheap low capital cost peaking diesel/gas reciprocating generation (which is 28% cheaper to run than the old gas boiler system they replaced) that goes from 0 - 100% in 5min for 0.05% or 30h of the year? What you rather, have 210 MW of high cost coal generation sitting there gathering dust that needs to be started 1d ahead before its needed?
What do you think other Grid operators have on stand by for their 30h of highest peaking demand a year? Qld makes use of alot more larger diesel/gas reciprocating power generation than SA, my Dad provided the gas compressors for some.